• Glasses will always be a gimmick, and will never see mass adoption
AR will enable a new mode of interaction with technology by taking a massive step towards the seamless unification of the digital and physical realm. The first smartphones (pre iPhone) were seen as gimmicks for nerds. Do you know how many people shunned the idea of mobile email? Almost all of them. Seems impossible to believe but it's entirely true, the excuse was "why do I need this when I can get my email at work or at home and those are the only places I do work." Can you think of a single enterprise today that doesn't utilize mobile email? I can name Gen Z people that have never used email outside of their smartphone.
The shape of the world today has been defined by smartphones because they opened up a door into an entirely new world; a digital world not constricted by many limitations of the real one (for better or worse). One of those limitations, however, is that a major constriction *does* exist in the form of the screen. The screen is a very distinct clean break between the real and the digital. AR removes that constriction to a large degree. At the very least it's an accessory for having any size virtual display you want (this is a major reason I will buy the 2023 Apple goggles and I know several others that want it for this reason even though none of us know what else the goggles might do). Don't underestimate the utility for physical social scenarios too. All sorts of digital activities will be possible if everyone has AR glasses on: group browsing, group shopping, group gaming (human scale virtual jenga? lol), the list goes on.
For consumers AR means a literal new dimension to both of their worlds. For the tech overlords ubiquitous AR means further consummating the marriage of their ads to our psyche (which is partly why they're so eager to pour money into it).
I wouldn't be so quick to say AR glasses will "never see mass adoption" for all those reasons. Apple's first AR/MR goggles will be niche just like smartphones and computers were... until someone creates a few killer apps and then there's no stopping it. By the time Apple's mass consumer glasses come around the paradigm will have matured to a considerable degree. I think for the forseeable future AR glasses will be considered an optional accessory to the iPhone but with a broader appeal vs. the Apple Watch. The iPhone is obviously not going anywhere anytime soon.
It could flop and go nowhere for consumers but for enterprise at the very least I think it's a no brainer.
• VR is even more of a gimmick
Maybe. I think AR will be for 'arcade' style games, mainstream enterprise productivity, and general everyday consumer apps whereas VR will be more for gaming and specialized productivity applications. Once VR reaches retina level quality and can easily be driven at high frame rates on a home gaming PC it might become the new standard for AAA games.
Many mainstream VR gaming demos have been focussed on physical interaction via hand tracking remotes and moving around like a dork in your living room -- I have a
large feeling this doesn't appeal to the average
gamer gamer. Instead the appeal will be about full immersion into the game world via filling your peripheral vision + true 3D, so think today's games but instead of sitting at your desk with a keyboard and mouse staring at a screen you're sitting at your desk with a keyboard and mouse with a VR headset on. In this sense the VR headset will be an optional 'immersion' accessory rather than a requirement to play the game.
• Smart watch can't do what an iPhone does
They were never meant to do what an iPhone does. They were always meant to be an accessory to your iPhone, primarily marketed as a means of getting real stats about your health and fitness. Most people I know think of the Apple Watch as a health device first, a notification device second, and a mini smartphone last (replacing only the most basic functions they would otherwise perform on their phone).
• Samsung's flip / fold tech might never solve the purely technical problems of the folding screen.
There are already other foldables that have done a better job than Samsung in terms of the crease issue. I think it's fairly obvious to say almost all issues with foldables will be solved within 7 years and from there foldability will become a fairly common expectation amongst premium smartphones (iPhone included).
Look at the OPPO Find N, it's a lot smaller than Samsung's Fold 4 (in folded state the Find N is about the size of an iPhone 13 Mini), the crease is less noticeable in normal use and it's arguably a lot more convenient to have a foldable phone that shrinks down to 'one hand' operation size vs. Samsung's Fold which is still massive even when folded. Maybe AR glasses will render foldables pointless anyway and phones will start to shrink in size again for that reason, who knows to be honest.
