The 50-year horizon: what will personal computing look like?

[Donoban]

I'll be long gone by then (b. 1943) but am planning on seeing what happens in the next 20 years (my mom lived to 97).
...
So that's a wish rather than a prediction. If I have a prediction, it's that the kind of thing I'm talking about will show up before I die. Or can't work, whichever comes first (here's hoping death precedes being unable to work).

Thank you for sharing. These stories make me feel sad that I missed the golden era of programming.

I agree, voice recognition has been one of the most under developed aspects of computing. If 3 people are speaking at the same time, our brain can choose who we wish to listen to. Computers don't have this ability, a microphone listens to everything equally... not to say it won't be solved but this is a huge challenge (among others) and it seems we're still a while off. Hopefully you'll see it in the next 20 years.

 

[Huntn]

Ha, good point made on the moon base. The child in me is revolting!! But on the other hand: I have no clue what we would do up there that one couldn't down here. (although that doesn't mean a lot )

Don't you read science fiction? The purpose obviously is the path forward for continued existence by the human race. What can be argued is the timing and expense.

 

[twietee]

Don't you read science fiction?

Nope.

Although I do recall seeing a movie where spaceNazis where hiding on the opposit side of the moon.

And although I make a very large detour around everything Michael Bay I think I saw a trailer about Decepticons who were also hiding on that part. I guess Kubrick shot his short flic not in those parts..

So I guess it's just way too dangerous up there!

 

[BenTrovato]

So many possibilities exist if we don't kill ourselves. Advances in bio-technology will allow us to live/breathe on other worlds. We're eventually going to leave this planet and explore the galaxy. Fifty years? Probably not. I think 50 is too hard to make a prediction against. You can try 10 years and see how you make out.

Apple watch series 9 will be the first embedded under the human skin. Series 10 will add GPS and a longer battery. Series 11 will add LTE capabilities. Some upgrade paths never change

 

[Huntn]

Nope.

Although I do recall seeing a movie where spaceNazis where hiding on the opposit side of the moon.

And although I make a very large detour around everything Michael Bay I think I saw a trailer about Decepticons who were also hiding on that part. I guess Kubrick shot his short flic not in those parts..

So although a very good idea I guess it's just way too dangerous up there!

Even though most likely we won't be around to worry about it, in long term thinking the reasons are:
1. For when we run out of resources here on Earth.
2. So the species survives the killer impact or some other natural life-ending event on Earth.
3. So we give ourselves breathing room and not poison/develop every square foot of the planet.

 

[twietee]

Even though most likely we won't be around to worry about it, in long term thinking the reasons are:
1. For when we run out of resources here on Earth.
2. So the species survives the killer impact or some other natural life-ending event on Earth.
3. So we give ourselves breathing room and not poison/develop every square foot of the planet.

But look at the moon: It's totally boring!

 

[Huntn]

So many possibilities exist if we don't kill ourselves. Advances in bio-technology will allow us to live/breathe on other worlds. We're eventually going to leave this planet and explore the galaxy. Fifty years? Probably not. I think 50 is too hard to make a prediction against. You can try 10 years and see how you make out.

Apple watch series 9 will be the first embedded under the human skin. Series 10 will add GPS and a longer battery. Series 11 will add LTE capabilities. Some upgrade paths never change

Or they will figure a way for the human body to power it's implants.
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But look at the moon: It's totally boring!

Maybe it has amazingly pretty caverns and underground great lakes. More likely if referencing an exciting place to live, look beyond the solar system for that, but now we are talking real commitment and focus the human race does not currently have.

 

[TheAppleFairy]

Minority Report takes place in the year 2054. Not quite 50 years from now, but it's a good look into the future if you're looking for a movie to watch this weekend.

 

[D.T.]

AR (Augmented Reality) will become the new computing paradigm (yes, I used that marketing speak, but it's an accurate term ), in fact, in the much shorter term based on that I've been working on, the companies I've been working alongside.

Minority Report (Enders Game, Futurama ... not as far away as you might think).

 

[BenTrovato]

AR (Augmented Reality) will become the new computing paradigm (yes, I used that marketing speak, but it's an accurate term ), in fact, in the much shorter term based on that I've been working on, the companies I've been working alongside.

Minority Report (Enders Game, Futurama ... not as far away as you might think).

Another reason why it's hard to predict is that we're aren't living in a world that reflects our advancement of technologies. We're still living in a profit/commerce world. Even if we have technologies that can be environment neutral, if there isn't a way for the top 1% to capitalize on it, we don't see it. Similar reason why we're still on gasoline vehicles and flying hunks of metal in the sky when we've had major breakthroughs in transportation available for years.

If we continue on that path, we might end up like Elysium, where most people live in poverty while few people get to live aboard an advanced space station with unlimited health benefits.

 

[Savor]

The reason why I don't think I will be interested in computing forever is because prior to going online and smartphones, I was very much into video games. From 1988 when my Uncle gave me his NES up until 2007, I was obsessed with them. Then I lost interest. Smartphones took over but I probably will lose interest in too within ten years or less. By my 50's, I will probably still be up-to-date but not some hardcore enthusiast like today.

One of my dreams is space travel. I was very much into astronomy as a young child when Pluto was still considered the 9th planet from the Sun. I grew up as an 80's child growing up on Sesame Street and Reading Rainbow. Even just visiting the moon would be awesome. I want to float around that space shuttle and throw food at people or catch it with my mouth. We probably won't see that in our lifetimes though. But I would love our future offspring to see that though to fulfill a dream I won't experience. Simulators and observatories are not enough. I really want to see the Earth from the Moon with my own eyes.

I said it before, some of our great, great grandchildren will be laughing at us a hundred years from now. They will be like, "Who the hell is this Kim Kardashian and why was she famous?" "So our great, great grandparents were doing selfies with their hands?" "What the hell is this Facebook and Twitter?" VR? Try teleportation. Smartphone? Try Rosie the robot who can fetch you a beer, cook, and whatever extra service you want from her. And she's Japanese and looks nothing like the one from The Jetsons.

Gosh, I hope our future offsprings living in the 22nd century improves humanity and do something meaningful than what we do with our time which is wasting alot of it for people like Kim Kardashian and Justin Bieber or posting selfies, trying to gain likes on Facebook, and complaining online about scratches on the back of their iPhones! Who knows if Apple or iPhones are still popular in 100 years or they become extinct?

Nothing last forever. We won't either. But our imaginations and dreams will never die. Our DNA will continue on with the next group of people who replaces us.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Even though most likely we won't be around to worry about it, in long term thinking the reasons are:
1. For when we run out of resources here on Earth.
2. So the species survives the killer impact or some other natural life-ending event on Earth.
3. So we give ourselves breathing room and not poison/develop every square foot of the planet.

Why do we think we have the right to 'colonise' (and perhaps destroy) other planets and places?

Might we not be considered a deadly infection and/or infestation from outer space?

We evolved to be able to live in the conditions of our home planet; successful existence elsewhere would mean either adapting environments or adapting ourselves.

Another reason why it's hard to predict is that we're aren't living in a world that reflects our advancement of technologies. We're still living in a profit/commerce world. Even if we have technologies that can be environment neutral, if there isn't a way for the top 1% to capitalize on it, we don't see it. Similar reason why we're still on gasoline vehicles and flying hunks of metal in the sky when we've had major breakthroughs in transportation available for years.

If we continue on that path, we might end up like Elysium, where most people live in poverty while few people get to live aboard an advanced space station with unlimited health benefits.

Excellent post and a salutary reminder of why any discussion of tech advances needs also to be aware that a moral, economic and ethical hinterland exists also, and often is what decides who - and how many - people and societies get to experience the advantages of such technology, and why.

One of my dreams is space travel. I was very much into astronomy as a young child when Pluto was still considered the 9th planet from the Sun. I grew up as an 80's child growing up on Sesame Street and Reading Rainbow. Even just visiting the moon would be awesome. I want to float around that space shuttle and throw food at people or catch it with my mouth.

Well, throwing food at someone is an activity that would not hold much interest for me, irrespective of environment.

However, tech advances do not exist in a vacuum, and choices tend to be made not only as to who (and what societies) get to use it, but how - and for what purposes- it is used.

You are not alone in deploring the risible cultural preferences of a culture that elevates the doings - along with the incessant reporting on the doings - of individuals such as Kim Kardashian, to the exclusion of more - perhaps - intellectually interesting - matters.

 

[Huntn]

Why do we think we have the right to 'colonise' (and perhaps destroy) other planets and places?

Might we not be considered a deadly infection and/or infestation from outer space?

We evolved to be able to live in the conditions of our home planet; successful existence elsewhere would mean either adapting environments or adapting ourselves.



Excellent post and a salutary reminder of why any discussion of tech advances needs also to be aware that a moral, economic and ethical hinterland exists also, and often is what decides who - and how many - people and societies get to experience the advantages of such technology, and why.




Well, throwing food at someone is an activity that would not hold much interest for me, irrespective of environment.

However, tech advances do not exist in a vacuum, and choices tend to be made not only as to who (and what societies) get to use it, but how - and for what purposes- it is used.

You are not alone in deploring the risible cultural preferences of a culture that elevates the doings - along with the incessant reporting on the doings - of individuals such as Kim Kardashian, to the exclusion of more - perhaps - intellectually interesting - matters.

Seriously, we absolutely have as much right to colonize space as we did to colonize the Earth. But there is the issue of consideration for doing it responsibly and placing value on alien life and eco systems. But we've done such a bang up job here on Earth I have high confidence.

Don't forget about the Prime Directive, but this will require Humans v2.0.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Seriously, we absolutely have as much right to colonize space as we did to colonize the Earth. But there is the issue of consideration for doing it responsibly and placing value on alien life and eco systems. But we've done such a bang up job here on Earth I have high confidence.

Don't forget about the Prime Directive, but this will require Humans v2.0.

As someone who reveres the ST (and STNG, and DS9) universe, I'm very mindful of the Prime Directive, which is why I asked that question.

While the whole idea of space exploration fascinates (and yes, excites) me, I do not subscribe to the view that it was all simply placed there for our pleasure and convenience to do with as we will.

I'm also mindful of the devastating effect of the Spanish Conquest on the populations of central America - the vast majority of the casualties occurred not from advanced firepower, but rather, as a result of infection from the diseases that the Spanish - unwittingly - introduced to the New World.

 

[MICHAELSD]

We are still in the golden age of computing, and are getting closer to realizing the vision of a magically thin computer with infinite processing power. The difference is in 50 years there may only be phones and tablets, not the desktops and laptops we've come accustom to calling personal computers.

 

[JoeG4]

Maybe it has amazingly pretty caverns and underground great lakes. More likely if referencing an exciting place to live, look beyond the solar system for that, but now we are talking real commitment and focus the human race does not currently have.

Amusingly there's people that don't believe we've ever left the planet lol.

That thought randomly pokes into my head from time to time when I'm on my way to work.

 

[Huntn]

Amusingly there's people that don't believe we've ever left the planet lol.

That thought randomly pokes into my head from time to time when I'm on my way to work.

As been mentioned before around here, there is adequate evidence humans landed on the moon. There is a lot of film footage in the day before serious CGI, besides being able to see the landing sites and equipment on the moon from Earth. If you get a chance see the documentary Last Man On The Moon, there is really good orbit and landing, along with running around on the moon footage. Then for fun, watch Capricorn One.

 

[BenTrovato]

As been mentioned before around here, there is adequate evidence humans landed on the moon. There is a lot of film footage in the day before serious CGI, besides being able to see the landing sites and equipment on the moon from Earth. If you get a chance see the documentary Last Man On The Moon, there is really good orbit and landing, along with running around on the moon footage. Then for fun, watch Capricorn One.

To be honest I really don't know if we landed on the moon or not. If we did, I'm not surprised - we were shown a lot of footage. If we didn't - I'm not surprised either. What I do know is that I'm not so sure serious CGI (or other tech) wasn't around way before it was put in the hands of regular consumers. Even the optics NASA and other agencies have been using in satellites since the 80's is still more advanced than consumer items today. People still don't get that the optics from a satellite can see the detail of a grass blade on your lawn in glorious 4k resolution and that's 20 year old technology. I just bought a 4k monitor for the first time in 2016.