The Beat Goes On: Nano, Touch, Beatles, Wireless?

[madmaxmedia]

Why must you force the 2 products into separate categories?

Okay, let's say that the new iPod Touch won't be called the iPod, it's called the Phoneless iPhone. Is it now okay to release it, since it will be increasing iPhone sales?

I'm being facetious of course. But I don't recall Apple positioning the 2 in any particular way (as luxury vs. starter level), because they are different products. This is NOT MacBook vs. MacBook Pro, which have the same feature set with a different casing. These are products that differ in actual functionality.

Why is a $600 100GB wifi iPod of less stature than a $600 iPhone? Especially if they make the same money for Apple?

The iPod ALREADY competes with the iPhone, because there are plenty of people out there who have a cell phone and an iPod, thus don't feel the need to buy an iPhone. Which is fine for Apple, because they already got a sale from them. The solution is not to stop selling iPods in hopes they will now buy an iPhone, because there's a great chance they will buy a competitor's mp3 player instead. Purposefully throttling down customer choices is not a winning strategy.

Apple releases new product variants and adds new features when the market is there, that has always been the case. If anything, the debate is over whether adding a certain functionality (such as wifi) will significantly add to Apple's total revenues.

Because they have positioned the iPhone as their top gadget, that's why. The ipods will slowly over the next few updates be positioned as a entry device as more and more adults and young adults get an iPhone. That is Apple's plan, that the iPhone will replace the iPod. Convergence is the future, not standalone music playing devices.

The ipod won't ever compete with the iPhone, instead it will transgress as the player people buy who can't afford an iPhone or a different music phone. Or, it will be for children or elderly who have no need for a higher end convergence device.

The iPod landscape is changing.

 

[madmaxmedia]

All of your statements are speculation on your part (as is just about everything on this thread.) You may be right, you may be wrong. But those are much more legitimate reasons than the argument of sales cannibalization alone.

It only gets me when people argue against a rumored new product because 'Apple hasn't done it before', or 'Apple doesn't want to lose sales of existing product X'. That would never hold water in an actual internal discussion at Apple. Yes, they would try to forecast these things, and would need to make sure their price points make sense. But obviously they decided that new products like the Shuffle and Mini were worth developing.

Yes, it is addressing the needs of your customers. Apple customers want a widescreen iPod with a full screen interface. That is the MAIN feature they want.

That is what Apple will give them.

Some also want wifi, to be able to surf the net, check mail etc. However, this is an elite class of consumer that will most likely buy an iPhone eventually anyway. Therefore, Apple won't try to confuse the vast majority of consumers between the iPhone and iPod. They will keep things simple by offering a wifi enabled iPhone and a music/video playing iPod.

edit: It's just like the elite consumer group who want a smaller/lighter macbook pro. The reason it doesn't exist is because Apple want to simplify their product line. Want a pro machine? Buy a macbook pro. Want a smaller machine? Buy a macbook.
Same with people wanting a Mac tower.

These things don't happen for a reason, even though there is a subset of customers who are interested.

 

[i0Nic]

Why must you force the 2 products into separate categories?

Okay, let's say that the new iPod Touch won't be called the iPod, it's called the Phoneless iPhone. Is it now okay to release it, since it will be increasing iPhone sales?

I'm being facetious of course. But I don't recall Apple positioning the 2 in any particular way (as luxury vs. starter level), because they are different products. This is NOT MacBook vs. MacBook Pro, which have the same feature set with a different casing. These are products that differ in actual functionality.

Why is a $600 100GB wifi iPod of less stature than a $600 iPhone? Especially if they make the same money for Apple?

The iPod ALREADY competes with the iPhone, because there are plenty of people out there who have a cell phone and an iPod, thus don't feel the need to buy an iPhone. Which is fine for Apple, because they already got a sale from them. The solution is not to stop selling iPods in hopes they will now buy an iPhone, because there's a great chance they will buy a competitor's mp3 player instead. Purposefully throttling down customer choices is not a winning strategy.

Apple releases new product variants and adds new features when the market is there, that has always been the case. If anything, the debate is over whether adding a certain functionality (such as wifi) will significantly add to Apple's total revenues.

The iPod won't cost $600 for one. The video iPod used to be top dog, but it has taken a backseat to the iPhone, permanently. Don't expect prices for the iPod to rise significantly this time around.

The iPod costs less for the consumer, not just in initial cost but overall costs. It is in Apple's interest to ensure that the iPhone remains a premium product, a cheaper product with a similiar feature set is not good for Apple.

Your analogy is not a good one. This is why - people who will have an iPod Touch, or even a current iPod, will want to eventually get an iPhone if their user experience is positive. If they see no need to get an iphone because their iPod is basically the same thing, Apple lose.

Apple is trying to entice consumers to the iPhone, the techsavvy consumer. Mass Market is for the iPod, and the masses are not asking for wifi.

Total revenues is a good topic... Apple make a good percentage from AT&T and over time 1 iphone will make a wholeee lot more than an iPod. They want you to get an iphone over an ipod, no question about that.

The tech savvy consumers who are the only ones asking for wifi, who make up 5% of the buying population, will get an iPhone anyway! Maybe not all of them, but a lot of them.

You are too stuck on the idea that Apple will include wifi because consumers want wifi. What consumer is that? You? All us geeks? We will buy an iPhone eventually. That is what Apple want long term.

 

[OldTimey]

All of your statements are speculation on your part (as is just about everything on this thread.) You may be right, you may be wrong. But those are much more legitimate reasons than the argument of sales cannibalization alone.

Agreed. The only reason I've been so adamant about my position that a wifi iPod will cut into iPhone sales is because I really feel it will (and it will in the case of what i buy) do just that.

I don't know, and i don't claim to know that this alone will stop Apple from releasing a wifi iPod. Their numbers might suggest a bigger market for a wifi iPod than for an iPhone, and therefore increased revenue with a wifi iPod. If that's the case, then I bet it will come, maybe not Sept. 5th, but sooner rather than later.

 

[Bimmi]

The iPod does not currently compete with the iPhone. At the most, an iPhone sale will mean the loss of an iPod nano sale, which still works out fine for Apple as the iPhone is a much more expensive product with an accordingly higher profit margin. And the iPod's place in the market is not doubted by anyone, to say the least, so this "lost sale" does not threaten iPod mindshare in any meaningful way.

Conversely, release an iPod with full Internet capability at a price point that would be inevitably similar to the iPhone and you are probably talking loss of iPhone sales in the tens of thousands of units. Now would be absolutely the least opportune time for Apple to do this, so simple logic suggests it's not going to happen.

Again, many are eager to see the iPhone fail, and we've all seen that it only takes a hint of bad news to do wacky things to Apple's stock prices. Regardless of what Apple chooses to do with the iPod, they are pretty much obligated to keep it from taking anything away from the iPhone at this particular point in time. Common sense, nothing more.

 

[i0Nic]

We will see in 5 days. If they do include the internet on the iPod, I will post a thread with a picture of me wearing nothing but a Microsoft Zune covering my man meat.

 

[OldTimey]

The iPod does not currently compete with the iPhone.

Conversely, release an iPod with full Internet capability at a price point that would be inevitably similar to the iPhone and you are probably talking loss of iPhone sales in the tens of thousands of units. Now would be absolutely the least opportune time for Apple to do this, so simple logic suggests it's not going to happen.

Again, many are eager to see the iPhone fail, and we've all seen that it only takes a hint of bad news to do wacky things to Apple's stock prices. Regardless of what Apple chooses to do with the iPod, they are pretty much obligated to keep it from taking anything away from the iPhone at this particular point in time. Common sense, nothing more.

I agree with you on all points, except, that we don't know the numbers. You can't say 10's of thousands...you just don't know. Not even Apple knows, but they, as a publicly owned, but very secretive business, are the only ones in any position to speculate how badly wifi iPod sales would cut into iPhone sales, and whether or not it is a big of enough factor to offset the ENORMOUS number of iPods that are going to be sold post-Sept 5th.

 

[madmaxmedia]

Agreed. The only reason I've been so adamant about my position that a wifi iPod will cut into iPhone sales is because I really feel it will (and it will in the case of what i buy) do just that.

I don't know, and i don't claim to know that this alone will stop Apple from releasing a wifi iPod. Their numbers might suggest a bigger market for a wifi iPod than for an iPhone, and therefore increased revenue with a wifi iPod. If that's the case, then I bet it will come, maybe not Sept. 5th, but sooner rather than later.

I also think it's in the air, there are valid arguments for both. IF Apple includes Wfi, then I believe it would be a high-priced top of the line model that would slot in appropriately between the cheaper iPods and the most expensive iPhone. But even then, there are legitimate questions about how many people want such a device (much less how many iPhone sales it would take away.) I even question how cheap Apple can make a non-wifi iPod Touch, and whether people will be happy with the price points.

In the short run, I do believe that 'sales cannibalization' is relevant from a PR perspective, as Apple wants iPhone sales to look as good as possible. But I believe in the long run, adding wifi to the iPod is inevitable, just as adding video playback was inevitable. People vehemently argued against video playback back then too, and now it's already assumed that the new iPod is going to have a full screen, primarily to accomodate video playback.

So short term (meaning September 5), I would probably guess no wifi. But long term, I feell 100% it will come at some point (maybe a year from now, by which the iPhone will have new upgrades as well.)

I anticipate being happy with the new iPod either way, as long as there is a HD version with a 480 x 320 screen. I think watching videos on the iPhone is a much better experience than on the current iPod, so I'm looking forward to that most of all. Touch UI and Coverflow sexiness is nice too.

 

[nirvana06]

it seems some people still don't get that iPhone is not an option for a LOT of people...

If there is a high end version of ipod with wifi i'm buying it. If not i'm not buying an iphone i'm buying whatever ipod version they have.

 

[madmaxmedia]

LOL, we appreciate your conviction. But I think I will give you a pass even if you lose!

We will see in 5 days. If they do include the internet on the iPod, I will post a thread with a picture of me wearing nothing but a Microsoft Zune covering my man meat.

 

[JGF0x]

We will see in 5 days. If they do include the internet on the iPod, I will post a thread with a picture of me wearing nothing but a Microsoft Zune covering my man meat.

I don't think anyone here wants to hold you to that.

Anyway, I think the addition of wifi on the iPod is very possible but it will definitely be limited to an iTunes Store and streaming music to your iPod from your computers so you don't need to hold 80gb of music on one iPod. My main motivation to get a new iPod would be the widescreen so that I can watch tv shows while I'm out doing boring stuff (see: gym) which I think will definitely happen. With the recent pull out of NBC Universal I was pretty disappointed that it would kink my plans to dump cable once and for all but then I realized I now don't have to pay for most of the shows I watch. Thanks NBC!

As for the controls of the new iPod... is there any chance Apple will put the click wheel on the back of the new iPod so you can watch widescreen yet still control your iPod without looking at it?

 

[parrotheadmjb]

I believe that apple will incorporate the touchscreen in the new iPod either in september or in the first half of 2008, they have sold over 100 million ipods, in the first quarter of 2007, 48% of their total revenue came from iPod based sales, it has a 90% market share of digital music players in the U.S. they are not going to abandon the iPod for the iPhone..not any time soon at least. First iPhone prices must come down, they need larger storage capacities, they need to move away from exclusive contracts with cell providers. At&t only has 63.7 million subscribers, Verizon only has 62.1 million subscribers. Apple takes 10% of all revenue raised from calls, texts, and other data usage of the iPhone, which is not appealing to many smaller carriers both in the U.S or other countries. they are going to be with at&t for the next five years locking out all subscribers in United States not with AT&T Mobility. They would prevent 237 million americans from buying a digital music player from them with a touch screen. Right now the iPhone is only shooting for a 10 million sales in the next year, on average apple has sold 14.2 million iPods a year, starting off slow and execelerating up and over 30 million units in 2007 alone.
If im not mistaken, every iPod owner would a touch screen, widescreen display for their iPod. The iPhone with a 8gb maximum capacity can only hold 7 hours of video playback, thats not including the thousands of songs that wont fit on it. Many people have over 80gb of video and songs combined and are currently complaining about the the capacity of the iPod. Yes, the iPod very well may be phased into the iPhone as it improves in the next 10-15 years but right now the iPod with no doubt in my mind or apple's mind is their key video/music player while the iPhone is secondary (about video and music).

 

[Bimmi]

The 10k's figure is a guess, of course, but I don't see how anyone could assert that a fully Internet-enabled iPod would not cut noticeably into the iPhone's sales. The issue of revenue from iPods is irrelevant here: Apple is not going to let anything they make threaten the iPhone at this point in time, either in terms of sales or perceptions. And if they do, then it's going to be one of their more serious blunders in recent memory as far as I'm concerned.

 

[applecowgirl]

new ipod

I have very reliable sources that Apple is introducing a new ipod. The only thing about this ipod the person could tell me is it is going to be the biggest one yet. It will be able to hold a crazy amount of songs. The conversation came up with a DJ when the person said that they very soon would be able to put all their music on one ipod.....

 

[Don Bagles]

What are the possibilities that a touch-pod would lack enough hardware featured on the iphone that they can get rid of the chin and forehead? Just 100% screen.

Very high.

And I think the prices WILL be $449 and $599. That seems very realistic to me. The $449 model is cheaper than the iPhone, and you still get an 80GB hard drive, the widescreen, and Mac OS X.. but with the $599 ($150 more), you get Wi-Fi, and 120GB of space.

The $449 model is for those who don't want wireless connectivity, and want their iPods to remain simply an upgraded version of what they've always been: A Music Player.

 

[parrotheadmjb]

The 10k's figure is a guess, of course, but I don't see how anyone could assert that a fully Internet-enabled iPod would not cut noticeably into the iPhone's sales. The issue of revenue from iPods is irrelevant here: Apple is not going to let anything they make threaten the iPhone at this point in time, either in terms of sales or perceptions. And if they do, then it's going to be one of their more serious blunders in recent memory as far as I'm concerned.

I said that I believe that the touch screen will come out on the iPod either September 5 or first half of 2008, and they havnt sold as many iPhones as they initially expected to, so the sales may not be hurt too bad, but I agree I dont think apple will include safari or wifi.

 

[madmaxmedia]

Here's a thought question-

What Apple basically kept the 5.5G iPod form factor (with some battery life upgrades and the like), and simply increased storage capacity to say 60GB and 120GB?

What do you think the reception to that would be? I think we would hear the sound of crickets in the Mosconi center, like the old Bugs Bunny cartoons.

But maybe some people would see it as a great upgrade, for those who really just want to listen to music and want to keep the clickwheel.

 

[parrotheadmjb]

yea they already did a capacity, storage, and screen brightness upgrade last year, i dont see any reason that they would disappoint us again. they could keep the click wheel, it would just be a touch clickwheel on the screen, it would work the same way.

 

[OldTimey]

The 10k's figure is a guess, of course, but I don't see how anyone could assert that a fully Internet-enabled iPod would not cut noticeably into the iPhone's sales. The issue of revenue from iPods is irrelevant here: Apple is not going to let anything they make threaten the iPhone at this point in time, either in terms of sales or perceptions. And if they do, then it's going to be one of their more serious blunders in recent memory as far as I'm concerned.

I tend to agree with this...but we really don't know...it could turn out to be the smartest idea. Such is the ways of the business world. Nobody thought MTV was going to be successful...now look at that piece of crap money machine!

 

[i0Nic]

Very high.

And I think the prices WILL be $449 and $599. That seems very realistic to me. The $449 model is cheaper than the iPhone, and you still get an 80GB hard drive, the widescreen, and Mac OS X.. but with the $599 ($150 more), you get Wi-Fi, and 120GB of space.

The $449 model is for those who don't want wireless connectivity, and want their iPods to remain simply an upgraded version of what they've always been: A Music Player.

$449 is too high for the iPod, $449 for the higher end one maybe. For the entry-level iPod, the price can be no higher than $349 (even that is way too high, I am expecting $299).

The iPod is a mass-market device, not a premium product for the few.

 

[Bimmi]

I believe the current click-wheel iPod will be kept on in some form or another. Not everyone wants to watch video on a three-inch screen, and I'm sure many would prefer to keep a tactile one-hand interface. I currently have a 3G iPod, and the only thing I would really want from a replacement is more storage and less bulk. I think the classic iPod configuration has many years of life left in it, and I'm sure whatever's announced on Wednesday will reflect that.

Also:

Nobody thought MTV was going to be successful...now look at that piece of crap money machine!

Sure, MTV was a risky idea, and you'll notice that they didn't go ahead and launch VH1 three months afterwards.

 

[OldTimey]

Here's a thought question-

What Apple basically kept the 5.5G iPod form factor (with some battery life upgrades and the like), and simply increased storage capacity to say 60GB and 120GB?

What do you think the reception to that would be? I think we would hear the sound of crickets in the Mosconi center, like the old Bugs Bunny cartoons.

But maybe some people would see it as a great upgrade, for those who really just want to listen to music and want to keep the clickwheel.

Seeing as how the most popular iPod is the nano, i don't think too many people would see it as a reason to ditch the nano and go full size iPod...unless..they somehow revamp the nano...sell another gazillion of those...commit to focusing on that form factor and the iPhone...and begin the phasing out of the full-sized ipod...

 

[madmaxmedia]

In such a scenario, I think the 'fat nano' is the true successor to the 5.5G iPod, and would be priced starting at $249 or $299.

Then you could put the iPod Touch starting at up to $399, and still cover the entire price range.

I agree that if there is not a new flash-based player, then there would be a price hole.

$449 is too high for the iPod, $449 for the higher end one maybe. For the entry-level iPod, the price can be no higher than $349 (even that is way too high, I am expecting $299).

The iPod is a mass-market device, not a premium product for the few.

 

[madmaxmedia]

The issue of revenue from iPods is irrelevant here:

That statement makes no sense at all, considering that iPods make up fully HALF of Apple's profits, and on top of that have increased public awareness of Apple and likely even increased Mac sales (to some extent.)

Apple does need to give iPhone consideration because it is a fledgling product. But the issue of revenue from iPods is WHOLLY relevant to Apple.

 

[parrotheadmjb]

That statement makes no sense at all, considering that iPods make up fully HALF of Apple's profits, and on top of that have increased public awareness of Apple and likely even increased Mac sales (to some extent.)

Apple does need to give iPhone consideration because it is a fledgling product. But the issue of revenue from iPods is WHOLLY relevant to Apple.

Yea, i think the ipod made up 48% in the first quarter of 2007 and 32% in the second quarter since iPod sales declined, which is another reason for a touchscreen upgrade, it would be the biggest upgrade yet