The Beat Goes On: Nano, Touch, Beatles, Wireless?

[aswitcher]

iPhone profit per model: $400-$600.

iPod profit per model: $100-$250 ($200 cost plus $250 profit or $250 and $250 for 50/50)

Example: If WI-FI adds $75 (assume charging $100 over similar device without (even if they don’t make it) minus $25 component cost) profit AND many more sales (this is hard to predict) could, as one example, have 1 million more sales at $200 profit and 2 million sales with an additional $75 profit which would mean $350 in additional profit. If half of those 1 million sales came from CANNIBILIZING the iPhone, that would still only mean $250 in lost iPhone profit, and a NET gain of $100 million dollars, plus a new market niche.

What the above example shows, however, is that it could go either way, depending on cost, price, and total sales of the new iPod. Apple has experts probably working on those very models, and of course they know how much it costs them (and then will set the price). While iPhones make a ton of profit, iPods make a good amount too, sell more, and will not cannibalize iPhones at a 1 to 1 ratio. Apple can probably predict sales at different prices and components pretty well, and adjust what they build and sell to make selling profitable regardless (WI-FI would have a leg up, because they would be able to sell more).

Assuming the technology is no problem, then what may really shape this debate over WI-FI isn’t the profits shown above, but the strategy (https://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?p=4114327#post4114327) that they may consider for the long-run and how an advanced iPod (aPod?) would fit in.

I think there are few major assumptions here that make the maths a bit simplistic to have one or the other "i" device. Cannibalization could be much less for these reasons:-

a) A Touch iPod with a HDD with more/all of your music would tempt people to buy both devices.

b) A Touch iPod that has WiFi (with or without HDD) and becomes a Smart universal remote for your TV, Front Row, iTunes etc that would tempt people to have it in addition to the iPhone just for home use as the HomeRemote

c) If they do something to the Touch iPod with HDD like make it also a video camera, give it a high MP camera, add BT Stereo headphones, share music in proxity to others with these iPods or Macs, or some other unexpected wildcard then having both becomes tempting

So I think its pretty compelling to give it WiFi.

 

[onionperson654]

I think there are few major assumptions here that make the maths a bit simplistic to have one or the other "i" device. Cannibalization could be much less for these reasons:-

a) A Touch iPod with a HDD with more/all of your music would tempt people to buy both devices.

b) A Touch iPod that has WiFi (with or without HDD) and becomes a Smart universal remote for your TV, Front Row, iTunes etc that would tempt people to have it in addition to the iPhone just for home use as the HomeRemote

c) If they do something to the Touch iPod with HDD like make it also a video camera, give it a high MP camera, add BT Stereo headphones, share music in proxity to others with these iPods or Macs, or some other unexpected wildcard then having both becomes tempting

So I think its pretty compelling to give it WiFi.

Yeah, I think that you have mentioned a number of good reasons beyond the basic why the cannibilization argument falls (or can fall) somewhat short. If the new device is above the iPhone is some ways (such as HDD), then it can become a completly different branch (for now) of electronics (although those on a budget could have to choose, but Apple would still make a tidy profit).

Like I said in an earlier post, I think that this is a great opportunity for the ipod to branch out into other areas (convergence) and bring them within one well-functioning device. The numbers were extremly rough estimates in the case of the new ipod and future sales, so I just wanted to show that those saying that it had to be one way or the other were being a bit extreme without thinking it through.

Plus, I really want an ipod with WI-FI. As I've been thinking about it, I came to that conclusion and that if they don't come out with a WI-FI ipod, unless I buy a refurbished 4g ipod (don't want to spend $500 or more) and hack unlock its non phone features, I'll probably go for the Archos 605. It doesn't have the iphone interface or the itunes synching, but It's got a ton of great qualities (Wi-FI, 800-480 screen, content portal) that make it a bargain for under $300 for a 30gb model http://www.amazon.com/ARCHOS-WiFi-P...9?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1188605999&sr=8-3 or $379 for 160gb

 

[triskadecaepyon]

My Prediction?

Full screen ipod with osx, touch screen. Hard drive based(not flash). Slightly smaller than the iphone.

I think the nano's will just get bigger sizes.

I guess we'll see if I'm right.

 

[Don Bagles]

Yeah, I think that you have mentioned a number of good reasons beyond the basic why the cannibilization argument falls (or can fall) somewhat short. If the new device is above the iPhone is some ways (such as HDD), then it can become a completly different branch (for now) of electronics (although those on a budget could have to choose, but Apple would still make a tidy profit).

Like I said in an earlier post, I think that this is a great opportunity for the ipod to branch out into other areas (convergence) and bring them within one well-functioning device. The numbers were extremly rough estimates in the case of the new ipod and future sales, so I just wanted to show that those saying that it had to be one way or the other were being a bit extreme without thinking it through.

Plus, I really want an ipod with WI-FI. As I've been thinking about it, I came to that conclusion and that if they don't come out with a WI-FI ipod, unless I buy a refurbished 4g ipod (don't want to spend $500 or more) and hack unlock its non phone features, I'll probably go for the Archos 605. It doesn't have the iphone interface or the itunes synching, but It's got a ton of great qualities (Wi-FI, 800-480 screen, content portal) that make it a bargain for under $300 for a 30gb model http://www.amazon.com/ARCHOS-WiFi-P...9?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1188605999&sr=8-3 or $379 for 160gb

If the new iPod doesn't have a screen resolution higher than 480x320, then I might go with the 160GB Archos 605 anyways.

But Apple controls 70% of the MP3 player market. Do you think that when they come out with their new revolutionary widescreen iPod, they'll make it so that some of their loyal customers go out and buy an Archos instead?

I highly doubt it.

 

[DaBrain]

Ya, that would hurt my eyes to be reading off of that thing.

I've used an Ebook reader on an old pockect PC and it functioned great, As Long As I could select a large enough font. Which I could and was content with that.

Too me functionality is Everything!

 

[Bimmi]

You put out quality products with quality features, people will buy everything you got. You put out half-assed products with missing features and you piss off your customers. The whole "cannibalize" argument is completely specious. Does Apple screw up it's notebooks so they won't cannibalize iMacs? They both do the same thing. iTunes movies cannibalize iTunes music sales and vice versa. People only have so much money and will make choices. Better to give them high quality choices so they look to you and not elsewhere and whatever way they choose you get the sale.

This is so full of wrong and barely-thought-out it made my head spin.

 

[dubnluvn]

NBC 4 in Los Angeles just had a little blurb about this. They also cited ThinkSecret and "other Apple rumor sites" for supplying their information. Whats up with that???

 

[nirvana06]

does anybody expect specs to leak before the official announcement? How does apple keep things so secret and at the same time can launch a product online just as the announcement is in progress.

 

[havenhamilton]

you can use the student discount on new items at the apple store right?

 

[Don Bagles]

you can use the student discount on new items at the apple store right?

iPods don't have a student discount. They aren't any cheaper in the education store.

 

[Don Bagles]

does anybody expect specs to leak before the official announcement? How does apple keep things so secret and at the same time can launch a product online just as the announcement is in progress.

I half expect them to leak, but I don't want them to. The wait would be unbearable if I knew what was coming.

Anyways, i'm off to a chamber music concert! Hopefully i'll fall asleep and that'll pass some more time before September 5th!

 

[Bimmi]

With so many mentions of the Archos 605, I decided to give it a look. Neat little gizmo as far as I can tell, but it's rather larger than an iPod, almost twice as heavy and – if you go top-of-the-line with all available extras – the price is well into iPhone territory. It ultimately strikes me as yet another of the multitude of products that look better than the iPod on paper, and may in fact offer more bang for the buck, but which fall into that dark, trackless product category known as "not an iPod."

It also looks like it would make kind of a sucky portable music player, though that's hard to judge without having actually tried it.

 

[Quickdood]

Not Sexy

With so many mentions of the Archos 605, I decided to give it a look. Neat little gizmo as far as I can tell, but it's rather larger than an iPod, almost twice as heavy and – if you go top-of-the-line with all available extras – the price is well into iPhone territory. It ultimately strikes me as yet another of the multitude of products that look better than the iPod on paper, and may in fact offer more bang for the buck, but which fall into that dark, trackless product category known as "not an iPod."

It also looks like it would make kind of a sucky portable music player, though that's hard to judge without having actually tried it.

The bottom line is the Archos is not sexy, and the ipod is. If they put a little more effort into the design and made it look sexy then they would do a lot better.

 

[ll PiStoNs ll]

Everyone who wants an ipod as it is now (clickwheel, music/video player general purpose player) has one.
Making just a touch screen video and music player ONLY will not sell mch for apple. It might sell for the people who have been holding out on one, but seriously noone who has a 5th gen right now is going to spend 300+ JUST for a bigger screen.

If apple wants people to replace their ipod AND gain new customers, they MUST put osX into this, or else it will flop

 

[Bimmi]

Don't forget, iPods do not last forever. My three-year-old 3G is really beginning to show its age, and a nano or touchscreen model won't cut it for me if if I need to replace it anytime soon.

I am also of the mind that an iPod is for music, not video, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this. I feel that the clickwheel, HD-based iPod will have a place in the lineup as long as there's a demand for it.

 

[queshy]

Why would that stop them from adding BT to the device? It would allow them to use wireless headphones, and that would be a HUGE bonus in my book! It would also allow wireless syncing. BT is not meant for web-browsing, it's not a replacement for WiFi. It's more like a replacement for USB-cable and headphone-wires.



I'm not saying that the iPod will get a web-browser or something, but it HAS been getting new features in the past. First it played music. Then it displayed your pictures. Then it got video. What makes you think that we have now reached the point where no new features will be added to the device?

Obviously bluetooth headphones would be awesome and so would wireless syncing, but I just don't think the technology is "there" yet for Apple to make it really really remarkable. Other companies have surely tried wireless headphones and wireless syncing yet none of them are as popular as the iPod. The iPod is so successful because it does what it's supposed to perfectly.

New features will be added - most likely a WS/TS, and I'm starting to think perhaps Front Row (wouldn't that be awesome!). I'm not playing devil's advocate - I'd love a WS/TS/BT/WiFi etc etc iPod but we need to be realistic here. Either way, I can't wait!

 

[madmaxmedia]

In the long run, onionperson's analysis is very good. Not only is there a good long term argument for an wifi iPod to maximize Apple profit, but there is also the matter of competition- if people want wifi, other companies will provide it sooner or later. So Apple must respond to that.

In the short run, I have to say Bimmi's points about the infancy of the iPhone are very significant in terms of what is going to happen next Wednesday. It's not a matter of sales cannibalization (which I agree in the long run is a non-factor compared to total Apple revenue), but of avoiding confusion this early in the iPhone launch.

My prediction is wifi next year. By then the iPhone will be on v2 as well, and have further improvements.

 

[sjsharks27]

I hope the touch will be coming out on WED


Everyone from the Bay Area

VOTE SHARKS on this poll show some Bay Area Pride

http://nhllogos.blogspot.com/2007/08/poll-sharks-vs-canucks.html

BEAT the Canucks

 

[madmaxmedia]

Bluetooth would be great for wireless headphones. But I think it's way too slow for synchronization- wifi would be much better for that.

Obviously bluetooth headphones would be awesome and so would wireless syncing, but I just don't think the technology is "there" yet for Apple to make it really really remarkable. Other companies have surely tried wireless headphones and wireless syncing yet none of them are as popular as the iPod. The iPod is so successful because it does what it's supposed to perfectly.

New features will be added - most likely a WS/TS, and I'm starting to think perhaps Front Row (wouldn't that be awesome!). I'm not playing devil's advocate - I'd love a WS/TS/BT/WiFi etc etc iPod but we need to be realistic here. Either way, I can't wait!

 

[madmaxmedia]

The hardware looks quite nice. 160GB HD, 800 x 480 screen (4.3"), lots of battery life. It's not quite pocketable, but given the large screen the dimensions are not bad (.75" thick.)

I have no idea about the interface, but it has a touch screen. And of course wifi (though the browser costs extra.) For $399 that's a lot of muscle. You gotta factor in extra plug-ins, but not everyone is going to need all of them, obviously. It's an interesting pricing strategy, probably very good for this kind of device.

It's not an iPod. But it's devices like these that are the reason Apple cannot ignore wifi forever. But Archos is a niche brand, and there is not enough pressure yet to absolutely NECESSITATE Apple add wifi now.

It would be nice to pre-emptively dash all these companies hopes now with wifi + Safari + iChat, but I'm not holding my breath.

EDIT- CNET review here-
http://reviews.cnet.com/portable-vi...-30gb/4505-6499_7-32477556.html?tag=cnetfd.mt

With so many mentions of the Archos 605, I decided to give it a look. Neat little gizmo as far as I can tell, but it's rather larger than an iPod, almost twice as heavy and – if you go top-of-the-line with all available extras – the price is well into iPhone territory. It ultimately strikes me as yet another of the multitude of products that look better than the iPod on paper, and may in fact offer more bang for the buck, but which fall into that dark, trackless product category known as "not an iPod."

It also looks like it would make kind of a sucky portable music player, though that's hard to judge without having actually tried it.

 

[Don Bagles]

4 Days, 9 Hours, 55 minutes.

*snore*....... I'm on the verge of breaking into an Apple warehouse and snatching a new iPod.

 

[onionperson654]

While the archos is not as sexy as an iphone (but much better than the iphones new fat cousin), it is actually smaller than it looks in the pics, and quite pocketable. I realized that the dimensions are about the size of an index card, and if you take about 1/3 of the cards out of a new pack, you've got (roughly) the size. It fits easily into a medium sized pocket (more like a HDD ipod than the iphone) and if you compare the weight of the flash version (not like anyone would buy it, but it does have the storage of an iphone), its not much heavier, plus, it only costs $279 for 30gb (plus a bit for internet plugin).



All in all, if they release a $350 or less WI-FI ipod, then the Archos 605 is screwed because its synching (although it has a cool on-demand content portal), size, and sexiness are all a touch (pardon the pun) below the ipod/iphone. Perhaps most importantly (for Apple fans), its a strong competitor (it has a following of devoted fans and is rated a top quality device) that will hopefully keep Apple from holding back on its technologies.

Next week, I'll either be a) getting a new ipod b) deciding between the new ipod or archos 605 c) pissed that the new ipod doesn't have WI-FI and deciding whether the much smaller capacity, smaller video screen and resolution, lack of on-demand content, raised price, and hastle of spending $400 (that's sort of my top limit, otherwise the Cowon Q5 (its got everything, including high speed data network, a huge screen and no buttons, and even GPS) would be the dream device) for refurbished 4gb iphone are worth its synching abilities, pda features, and interface, and I doubt apple would win that one.

 

[P.B.]

An iPod with Wi-Fi is NOT similar to the iPhone!
It doesn't make phone calls, it doesn't have a phone number, it only surfs the internet in a hot spot, just like a MacBook.

The iPhone has 20 Features on its Start Screen, let's check how many of those an iPod WiFi could do:
- Calendar (Yes)
- Photos (Yes)
- Camera (Don't Know)
- YouTube (Yes)
- Stocks (Yes)
- Maps (Yes)
- SMS (No)
- Weather (Yes)
- Clock (Yes)
- Calculator (Yes)
- Notes (Yes)
- Settings (Yes)
- Phone (No)
- Mail (Yes)
- Safari (Yes)
- iPod (...)

17-18 of 20 Features.
Not similiar?

Just like OldTimey, if the new iPod could do ALL those things I would buy another, really small and cheaper phone, not a smartphone (I currently own the Samsung p300, it's tiny compared to iPhone) and the new iPod touch.
If the new iPod WON'T have WiFi I will buy an iPhone AND (maybe not right now but in the next months) an iPod with 100GB for all my Media.
Honestly, "SMS" and "Phone" are definitly not the features of the iPhone it has been hyped for by the media in the last months, you could easily fullfill these two with any other phone.

PS: As I said before, I can totally see limited WiFi like wireless syncing and appleTV remote - as these can be later updated for the iPhone and would make sense on the iPod.

 

[Bimmi]

Apple is in a very interesting position right now, one in which they are screwed if they don't add wi-fi to the iPod and possibly even more screwed if they do. I'm really curious to see how they choose to handle this, and I'm really hoping to see something brilliant and unexpected on Wednesday.

 

[Don Bagles]

The iPhone has 20 Features on its Start Screen, let's check how many of those an iPod WiFi could do:
- Calendar (Yes)
- Photos (Yes)
- Camera (Don't Know)
- YouTube (Yes)
- Stocks (Yes)
- Maps (Yes)
- SMS (No)
- Weather (Yes)
- Clock (Yes)
- Calculator (Yes)
- Notes (Yes)
- Settings (Yes)
- Phone (No)
- Mail (Yes)
- Safari (Yes)
- iPod (...)

17-18 of 20 Features.
Not similiar?

Just like OldTimey, if the new iPod could do ALL those things I would buy another, really small and cheaper phone, not a smartphone (I currently own the Samsung p300, it's tiny compared to iPhone) and the new iPod touch.
If the new iPod WON'T have WiFi I will buy an iPhone AND (maybe not right now but in the next months) an iPod with 100GB for all my Media.
Honestly, "SMS" and "Phone" are definitly not the features of the iPhone it has been hyped for by the media in the last months, you could easily fullfill these two with any other phone.

PS: As I said before, I can totally see limited WiFi like wireless syncing and appleTV remote - as these can be later updated for the iPhone and would make sense on the iPod.

The iPod will have Wi-Fi, but will not have all the stocks or weather or any of that stuff. Wi-Fi will be for file sharing and Safari. The other 18 features will be taken up by NON-connectivity related MEDIA PLAYING features.