So it's based on opinion rather than fact (which you back up with a source)? That doesn't mean much.
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The end of the expensive Smartphone - How Long?
- Thread starter Piggie
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So it's based on opinion rather than fact (which you back up with a source)? That doesn't mean much.
Sounds good to me. I was just saying sells don't tell the whole story about the phone. Apple does a much better job of marketing then any other company which equals great sales. No one has been able to copy the Apple Model.
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I finished with this. You can keep trying to bait me, but I am done.
More and more this is coming true what I said.
Now even Apple are admitting lower priced phones are getting better and better.
As I said. It's easier for a low price phone to get almost as good as a high priced phone, than it is for a high priced phone to get THAT much better every year.
We will and are finding more and more people who will question the $700 and $800 when something 1/3rd the price is almost as good for their needs.
Sure, there will always be a market for the top of the line, but with all products the market for that gets smaller as lower price models start to tick more and more people's box's
Now even Apple are admitting lower priced phones are getting better and better.
As I said. It's easier for a low price phone to get almost as good as a high priced phone, than it is for a high priced phone to get THAT much better every year.
We will and are finding more and more people who will question the $700 and $800 when something 1/3rd the price is almost as good for their needs.
Sure, there will always be a market for the top of the line, but with all products the market for that gets smaller as lower price models start to tick more and more people's box's
Apple was right, based on their internal research, to release the 5c. They will not release a 128gb high end tech iphone 6 for under $300. That level of phone will cost $800.
I keep phones, so to me almost as good is a no go.
I keep phones, so to me almost as good is a no go.
It's tough to say if high end smartphones will become cheaper.
The USA market has always been driven by the subsidy contracts. Americans are very sensitive about prices with phones. Probably the main reason high end Nokia phones of the 2003-2007 period never got picked up by carriers.
Those Nokia phones were priced in the $600-700 range as well and only techies with money in the USA would buy them since they were all full price.
Apple had a very hard time trying to sell the 2007 iPhone for $499-599. So hard that they had to reduce price to $399 within 3 months for the high end 8gb model and get rid of the lower end 4gb model.
But carriers now are coming up with another gimmick. The equipment installment plans that spread the payments over 18-24 months to make it look like people aren't paying a lot. So the days of $600-700 high end smartphones are still here to stay.
The USA market has always been driven by the subsidy contracts. Americans are very sensitive about prices with phones. Probably the main reason high end Nokia phones of the 2003-2007 period never got picked up by carriers.
Those Nokia phones were priced in the $600-700 range as well and only techies with money in the USA would buy them since they were all full price.
Apple had a very hard time trying to sell the 2007 iPhone for $499-599. So hard that they had to reduce price to $399 within 3 months for the high end 8gb model and get rid of the lower end 4gb model.
But carriers now are coming up with another gimmick. The equipment installment plans that spread the payments over 18-24 months to make it look like people aren't paying a lot. So the days of $600-700 high end smartphones are still here to stay.
2007 is an eternity away. Apple will not give their high end tech away for pennies on the dollar. We will see what the next few months bring.
And who is going to pay for the innovation?
When the PC market became commoditised and margins shrank, every company essentially ended up releasing pretty much the same product. They simply didn't have the resources to engage in extensive R&D, and so just pretty much went with the market.
When you think about it, the reason why Apple is able to do things like maintain their own ecosystem, design their own mobile processors and do funny things like making a metal iPhone with exposed antennas is precisely because they can charge a premium for their devices, which in turn gives them the resources (and the inclinations) to go that extra mile to better differentiate their products with all these offerings.
Likewise, that's how we can have different stuff like iBeacon, the macbook air form factor, the thermal-core-enabled Mac Pro.
All other things equal, of course I would cheaper products, I am just not sure we can have the best of both worlds here.
When the PC market became commoditised and margins shrank, every company essentially ended up releasing pretty much the same product. They simply didn't have the resources to engage in extensive R&D, and so just pretty much went with the market.
When you think about it, the reason why Apple is able to do things like maintain their own ecosystem, design their own mobile processors and do funny things like making a metal iPhone with exposed antennas is precisely because they can charge a premium for their devices, which in turn gives them the resources (and the inclinations) to go that extra mile to better differentiate their products with all these offerings.
Likewise, that's how we can have different stuff like iBeacon, the macbook air form factor, the thermal-core-enabled Mac Pro.
All other things equal, of course I would cheaper products, I am just not sure we can have the best of both worlds here.
Smart phone prices are artificially high. We have not seem the same price pressure as other consumer items with mass adoption rates. For example my first Flat screen TV was a 42 inch Plasma in 1997 at $9,000 the equivalent today is less than $1,000 with a lot more functionality.
There will eventually be a correction may it may take a change in the model where carriers no longer subsidize phones.
There will eventually be a correction may it may take a change in the model where carriers no longer subsidize phones.
The cheap smartphone is already here. You can choose to spend $200, $400 or even $800 on a smartphone. The choice is there. Just seems most people go for the high end latest ones. Don't expect the higher end phones to drop as long as people are paying for them.
So will my monthly cell phone bill be cheaper if I provided my own phone or bought an unsubsodized phone? If so, how much cheaper will it be? I am currently an AT&T customer, 450 minutes ($29.99), 1000 texts ($10.00) , and unlimited data ($30.00). Total monthly bill is $72.50 on the average.
I pay £15 a month. Have no idea what I get for that! iMessage and wifi is always free!
There are still 'expensive' computers. Granted not nearly as expensive as they used to be, and I personally believe any current Mac is worth the money. But I think you're looking into this too much.
As Apple as proven with the Mac, there is always going to be room for a premium product. That means premium build quality, premium software, premium marketing, and a premium price. The last thing I want is to abandon the philosophy they have built up since Steve's return in the late '90s.
There is so much cheap crap out there. I like the slightly more expensive products. I like the stuff that you can tell people put a lot of thought into. So yeah, the last thing I want is for a company like Apple to abandon its 'expensive' products. I don't see it happening, though.
As Apple as proven with the Mac, there is always going to be room for a premium product. That means premium build quality, premium software, premium marketing, and a premium price. The last thing I want is to abandon the philosophy they have built up since Steve's return in the late '90s.
There is so much cheap crap out there. I like the slightly more expensive products. I like the stuff that you can tell people put a lot of thought into. So yeah, the last thing I want is for a company like Apple to abandon its 'expensive' products. I don't see it happening, though.
As I am in a different country I can't really answer the question of what AT&T will charge if you provide your own phone. However I'm sure you can find out here. http://www.att.com/shop/wireless/devices/att/att-sim-for-apple-iphone-5-device.html
Unless something has changed recently on AT&T it won't change the price you pay. In most other countries they have an extra charge if you get a subsidy, however on American carriers you pay that if you brought your own phone or got one subsidized. So while the other poster has a good point if you are in the UK he doesn't know much about cell phone plans in America.
In your case your plan is already cheap for AT&T since it's an old one that's is no longer offered. However, there are loads of options out there that you could get for less.
Those who ignore the lessons of history...
This is a cycle as old as manufacturing. Since people don't really get richer (after adjustment for inflation), the only way to make new products affordable is to turn older products into lower-priced commodities.
Will it happen simply because the cheap end keeps getting cheaper? No. Cheap crap doesn't erode the marketplace for quality, it simply brings "almost as good" to the masses. And it will always be perceived as cheap crap, because the manufacturers themselves have to maintain that distinction in order to sell their higher-end products. The factor more likely to drag down the price of the high-end smart phone is competition from the Next Big Thing.
The smartphone has succeeded in no small part because it is an amalgam of so many other pocket electronic devices. No more pagers, no more calculators, no more point-and-shoot cameras, no more PDAs, MP3 players, portable electronic games, GPS, ebook reader, audio recorder/dictation device.... The smart phone has eaten the lunch of a long list of products. PLUS made the mobile Internet practical, PLUS brought personal computing power to huge numbers of people who would never have had a PC of their own (in other words, the true personal computer). And it will also destroy Life Alert and similar medical monitoring devices/services before medical monitoring gear goes truly mass-market. It'll soon replace our wallets and credit cards... Basically, it's a very tough act to follow.
When will a new product come along that is so compelling and so useful that everyone must have it, and therefore pull consumer dollars away from the current darling? Maybe it will be 5 years, maybe 10, maybe 20. If we could predict the future, we'd already be rich. But that day will come. Human ingenuity has not been tapped-out. Something great will come along that can't be jammed into a smart phone form factor, or trumps the smart phone form factor altogether.
I smell the whiff of denial whenever someone posts, "It'll always be a premium product." Perhaps the subtext is, "If smart phone prices fall, Apple is doomed, and we don't want Apple to fall." Apple will continue to rule the roost as a purveyor of quality goods just so long as it comes up with new, quality products. It can't get by on iPhone forever. That's why the manufacturing behemoths of the past are also-rans today.
He is not your mum, calm down.
))How about you call your provider and ask him for options or shop elsewhere for a moment. I think a year ago I did the calculation in UK and found out that if you are paying more than £20 a month then you should definitely buy the phone on contract but if it was below then it wasn't worth it.Buying a phone on contract is very expensive but that only depends on how much do you spend a month. All I know now is that if EU changes the policy in EU (cancelling all roaming charges within EU) then that will be the only time I get contract again. I don't use my phone a lot and I travel a lot these days so every few months I have to get local pay as you go simcard which is annoying. Contract and no extra charges for roaming would solve everything. And in UK the deals are pretty sweet at the moment
I sold a 5s and bought a moto g which i only had for a few weeks as i got a HTC one M8 on contract, if anything happened to my M8 i would be straight into a shop for another moto g. There is no way a 5S is worth 4-5 times the price. You can't even get a day out of the battery and you need glasses to see the screen
For a $200 smart phone Motorola nailed it with the moto g.
For a $200 smart phone Motorola nailed it with the moto g.
By definition, cheap will never be "high end".
OTOH, phones have become much more capable. Today's "cheap" phones provide great experiences compared to those of 5 years ago.
For example, my 2-year old iPhone 4s does everything I need it to. It does it rather well. And it's paid off. So why chain myself to a monthly payment for a marginal upgrade when I could put extra cash in my 401k? Or eat out more? Or whatever else I feel like?
Greetings piggie - if you are still following this thread - here is your answer.
I have been selling personal computers since they existed. And I will tell you that a new, near top of the line, laptop has ALWAYS cost about $2000. From About.com -
The computer considered by most historians to be the first true portable computer was the Osborne 1. Adam Osborne, an ex-book publisher founded Osborne Computer and produced the Osborne 1 in 1981, a portable computer that weighed 24 pounds and cost $1795. The Osborne 1 came with a five-inch screen, modem port, two 5 1/4 floppy drives, a large collection of bundled software programs, and a battery pack. The short-lived computer company was never successful.
Fast forward to 2014. I just purchased a new 15" rMBP for $1,999. Granted, in 1981 you could buy a great used car for $2k and now that would barely get you a POS dodge Neon. So to answer your Question. I expect in 10 years a new Apple iPhone 16 with 16tb of storage will cost $549 off contract.
Hope this helps...
D.
I have been selling personal computers since they existed. And I will tell you that a new, near top of the line, laptop has ALWAYS cost about $2000. From About.com -
The computer considered by most historians to be the first true portable computer was the Osborne 1. Adam Osborne, an ex-book publisher founded Osborne Computer and produced the Osborne 1 in 1981, a portable computer that weighed 24 pounds and cost $1795. The Osborne 1 came with a five-inch screen, modem port, two 5 1/4 floppy drives, a large collection of bundled software programs, and a battery pack. The short-lived computer company was never successful.
Fast forward to 2014. I just purchased a new 15" rMBP for $1,999. Granted, in 1981 you could buy a great used car for $2k and now that would barely get you a POS dodge Neon. So to answer your Question. I expect in 10 years a new Apple iPhone 16 with 16tb of storage will cost $549 off contract.
Hope this helps...
D.
My p&s takes better pics than my 5s. My dedicated gps works without a cell phone signal. My ebook reader lasts far longer than my cell phone and is much easier on the eyes. I can step on my credit card and a merchant will still be able to charge against it.
So I agree the cell phone has exchanged convenience for some mediocrity and as long as apple continues to innovate and produce a product people want they will be fine.
The cell phone is much easier to replace then a manufacturing behemoth like US steel.
