Although for most carriers you still pay that price if you sign a contract or not in the US.
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The end of the expensive Smartphone - How Long?
- Thread starter Piggie
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Although for most carriers you still pay that price if you sign a contract or not in the US.
You are making a mistake there.
It was that price 8 years ago, not today.
Like me saying an Atari VCS console was half my entire weeks wages back when I used to buy them, and look how cheap a game it today that's far better. Sure the game in price tags today is numerically more, but it does not cost you half your wage to but it.
Well it doesn't make sense to price things that would cost half your wage in today's economy. The world today is like how a network marketing business operates, it's about getting $1 off a million people instead of selling a $100 console to 100 people.
To the original question, I don't see an end to the expensive smartphone until the end of the smartphone is near. As long as it remains one of the most used/coveted items we have, people will always be willing to pay a premium for exclusivity/performance, no different than luxury vehicles.
No, you are the one making the mistake.
In 3 years, people won't be standing in line to buy an iPhone 5S, they'll be waiting for the 7...which will likely be the same (or even higher) price that the current models are selling for.
At no point will people be content with old technology when something newer, better, and faster can be had.
The only time when smartphones stock will go down is when something better is invented. Until then, there will be no 'end of the expensive smartphone.'
You are still thinking in today's mindset with current jumps.
We don't all desperately change PC,s and iMacs every year, along with many other items we own as they are a fairly mature technology that has to a fair extent reached a plateau where most people are happy with them for multiple years.
Phones are not there yet, but they are getting there. We are still in the peed jump stage.
Perhaps iPhone 19 will be a hard sell as it's barely any different from iPhone 18 or even 17 as by then the tech will have reached a level of limited improvement.
Likewise as cheaper models get better and better, it's going to start becoming even harder to justify the higher end models for an increasing number of people.
Not yet....... But I image apple knows the bubble will burst sooner or later
I, nor anyone I know, ever changed my computers every year. They've always lasted about 5 years before an upgrade was needed and that hasn't changed.
Apple isn't trying to sell a new phone to everyone every year, but every 2-3 years as contracts expire. That will not change and it's a long enough timeframe for faster processors and new features to make phones more desirable.
Aren't we already there until the next big thing (i.e., the next form factor like the jump from flip phones to touchscreen phones like the iPhone was)? The 4S added Siri. The 5S has just fingerprint unlocking as the major new feature. Apple still manages to sell an assload of iPhones even with one new major change as a S-type update.
They always manage to cripple a few features in the last generation's iPhone model, presumably in order to drive sales in the name of user experience. I don't see them doing that with computers after one year. I suppose that's why some of us feel the need to upgrade yearly when it comes to iPhones but not Macs.
So you can upgrade when you want and switch carriers when you want.
Plus I never borrow money (accept when I purchased my house) on principle.
As other's have mentioned, inexpensive yet capable smart phones exist. Look at the Motorola Moto G for example. $180. There are similar phones out there like a 4S that are $0 on a two year contract. But in terms of a phone you're going to keep for two years, people won't mind putting $100 or more down for a "better" phone like an iPhone 5C.
The real question, imo, is when expensive phone plans will cease to exist. Although, I'm not really sure that will ever happen (though some are going in the right direction like T-Mobile).
The real question, imo, is when expensive phone plans will cease to exist. Although, I'm not really sure that will ever happen (though some are going in the right direction like T-Mobile).
You are quite correct.
There will always be SOME demand from SOME for the latest and greatest.
At the moment as they are getting better (Twice as fast?) almost every year there is mass appeal for the latest model.
This is going to stop happening.
Mass market will not be "Latest and Greatest"
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Indeed, though the deliberate crippling of holding back basic features (like a flash for the iPad Camera) won't last for ever.
What you can hold back will get smaller and smaller to the point where the held back feature is not deemed that important anyway
As was said, yes the Moto G.
Another 4 years and lets say the Moto G4 will be as good as an iPhone6
Will the then iPhone 10 be THAT much better than the MotoG4 that the mass will want to pay say $1000 over $200 ?
Or will more and more phones come in around the $200 mark that more and more people are totally happy with an it becomes harder and harder to sell the $1000 models ?
Great point. That's what I always tell people when they ask if it's worth getting a 5s over a 5. There's nothing you use more than you're phone so don't cheap out.
The correct answer to your query is of course, "it depends."
If there are no new major tasks that the devices in our pockets are able to do, then of course they will get cheaper across the board than they are now. If there is a third revolution in the tasks done by mobile devices than we're looking at another couple of decades of demand for expensive mobile devices.
I also suspect part of the motivation of your query is predicated an emphasizing an inevitable doomed narrative for iPhone, which may or may not be the longterm case. On that part, I think Apple will always be able to command a premium of some sort in this space. An average person who has used an iPhone for a decade is probably not going to be keen on jumping ship unless something significantly different and better comes around. Again, this may or may not happen.
For the amount of tech stuffed into a smartphone they're cheap. If you buy last years perfectly functional smartphone its price is rock bottom.
Comparing game consoles isn't possible, those are sold below cost as they're subsidized by the games and monthly online fee. They're also easier & cheaper to manufacture than a smartphone.
Comparing game consoles isn't possible, those are sold below cost as they're subsidized by the games and monthly online fee. They're also easier & cheaper to manufacture than a smartphone.
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Again, depending on the carrier terms, you can still save money on a subsidized phone.
That's a fine principle. However, it is not always the best choice financially.
your logic is flawed. Name one market that doesn't have high-end products in it. There is a market for premium in every industry. Yeah I can buy a $30 blender from target but the $300 blender sells just as well because people look for quality.
Never. Expensive cars still exist because there will always be better tech to put in them that people want.
All of your examples are literally just dead tech that nobody wants because it has been replaced with better alternatives which is why it is cheap.
All of your examples are literally just dead tech that nobody wants because it has been replaced with better alternatives which is why it is cheap.
Indeed, you are totally correct. Every market has the small high end area.
Microwave ovens were expensive, the tech matured, the prices came tumbling down of models that most people find are good enough. Spending many hundreds of dollars on a Microwave is not the norm now.
Microwave ovens were expensive, the tech matured, the prices came tumbling down of models that most people found were good enough, but you could still buy a high end if the very small sector wanted it.
DVD Players, just the same. They started out dear, the cheap ones got so good, that how many will spend many hundreds of dollars for one now?
It happens again and again, I don't see todays Smartphones being any different. Every year the cheaper ones get better, and it's going to be harder and harder to make the reasons why you need to spend out for the high end model.
Sure, there will always be a market for the $1000 Smartphones, but its going to shrink and shrink and shrink.
Prices of the top of the line phones WILL NEVER come down, hence the top of the line.
If you want a cheaper smartphone, the market is full of them.
If you want a top-of-the-line smartphone, it will always be expensive since it will have the latest cutting edge tech inside.
You may think that the iPhone 5S is perfect and I respect your opinion.
But when/if Apple releases an iPhone with:
- Retina+ technology
- 1080P front camera
- 20MP rear camera with 4K video support
- Conductive Charging
- Eye recognition software
- NFC technology
- 30% thickness reduction
- 30% weight reduction
- Curved/Flexible displays?
you probably won't be satisfied with the smartphone you have now.
Technology moves on!
I had the same thought 5 years ago with laptops. But guess what?
Laptops added higher resolution displays (retina), flash memory instead of hard drives, Ultralight machines, new faster I/O ports amazing battery life.....
Summary: iPhones will ALWAYS be expensive because they tend to be cutting-edge tech.
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Your logic is flawed.
The reason why the Microwave and DVD player are now cheap is because the technology inside hasn't changed in the past ten years. The tech. inside has a goal and that goal has been reached. But the smartphone market is always changing. The smartphone technology HAS NOT matured yet. Nobody saw a real need for a retina display but when Apple released it in 2010, everyone wanted it and it's now standard. The TouchID technology is just in the middle of becoming a standard Apple technology. Once Apple adds inductive charging everyone will want it and it will be in all new products.
Does the 2007 iPhone make calls and work in 2013! Yes. Would anybody want it in 2014? NO!
Does a 2007 microwave work in 2014? Yes. Would anybody want it in 2014? Yes, because it's the same tech.
The Microwave has a clear goal......to heat things.
The DVD-Player has a clear goal......to play DVDs.
What's the goal of the Smartphone? What feature set should it have? New things are added every year hence they will always be expensive.
If you want a cheaper smartphone, the market is full of them.
If you want a top-of-the-line smartphone, it will always be expensive since it will have the latest cutting edge tech inside.
You may think that the iPhone 5S is perfect and I respect your opinion.
But when/if Apple releases an iPhone with:
- Retina+ technology
- 1080P front camera
- 20MP rear camera with 4K video support
- Conductive Charging
- Eye recognition software
- NFC technology
- 30% thickness reduction
- 30% weight reduction
- Curved/Flexible displays?
you probably won't be satisfied with the smartphone you have now.
Technology moves on!
I had the same thought 5 years ago with laptops. But guess what?
Laptops added higher resolution displays (retina), flash memory instead of hard drives, Ultralight machines, new faster I/O ports amazing battery life.....
Summary: iPhones will ALWAYS be expensive because they tend to be cutting-edge tech.
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Your logic is flawed.
The reason why the Microwave and DVD player are now cheap is because the technology inside hasn't changed in the past ten years. The tech. inside has a goal and that goal has been reached. But the smartphone market is always changing. The smartphone technology HAS NOT matured yet. Nobody saw a real need for a retina display but when Apple released it in 2010, everyone wanted it and it's now standard. The TouchID technology is just in the middle of becoming a standard Apple technology. Once Apple adds inductive charging everyone will want it and it will be in all new products.
Does the 2007 iPhone make calls and work in 2013! Yes. Would anybody want it in 2014? NO!
Does a 2007 microwave work in 2014? Yes. Would anybody want it in 2014? Yes, because it's the same tech.
The Microwave has a clear goal......to heat things.
The DVD-Player has a clear goal......to play DVDs.
What's the goal of the Smartphone? What feature set should it have? New things are added every year hence they will always be expensive.
I think it's actually your mindset that is actually off a bit. Phones, PCs, Consoles, and even DVD players or network routers are not on different trajectories.
You are correct to note that speed gains in processors has slowed in the desktop / laptop market, as compared to 10 or 20 years ago, and that processors are advancing quite quick in the converged decives space; but these are not distinct things.
Moores law is still as true today as it was 20 years ago; just the scope of it has changed. 20 years ago consumers demanded speed and speed, everything else be damned. Today consumers demand efficiency as fast as possible. We want speed but without it getting too hot or using up too much battery life. This efficiency requirement isn't as important in desktop PCs; it's only mildly important in laptops; but it's critical in converged devices (tablets, phones, etc).
Don't think of smartphones and PCs as two different things entirely; think of them as two different applictions of the same thing.
To answer your question with the above in mind, smartphones are already priced all over the spectrum. You can get a $50 off-contract android phone that is very capable; or you can pay $950 for an top of the line iPhone. The breadth of prices is vast already.
For example, look at something most of us consider to be a plain appliance: a network router. Most of average consumers look at this with the same excitement as they do a toaster (present company likely excluded, because we are afterall geeks). 10-20 years back, nobody knew nor cared what the processor inside their router was. Later, people started to care whether it was a broadcom or an atheros or what speeds it supported, etc. Today, routers are advertised as dual-core 1.3ghz etc. Throughout this enture period of time, there existed a $50 router, a $500 router, and everything in between. The same is true of PCs, and the same is true of smartphones.
Two things - first software. You may say that new processors aren't any faster - but they are - it is the new features and functions and bloated software (and all the ads and tracking usage, etc) that are eating up processing cycles.
Most of what you mentioned has been replaced by better technology as I'm sure the smart phone will be in the future - whether that is smare watches, implants, glasses, etc. New technologies will always drive old ones out. And volume to a great extent drives prices - if you sell 1 or 1 million the development costs are the same - you just spread that over more with 1 million.
Most of what you mentioned has been replaced by better technology as I'm sure the smart phone will be in the future - whether that is smare watches, implants, glasses, etc. New technologies will always drive old ones out. And volume to a great extent drives prices - if you sell 1 or 1 million the development costs are the same - you just spread that over more with 1 million.
If you think about it though. You are paying for the phone double if you are on a contract. If you are customer with Verizon or AT&T the phone cost is built into the monthly bill. If you buy outright you paying for the phone, and paying for it each month you pay a bill. That is why the Next program with AT&T is such a joke.
I pay £15 a month. I pick and choose when I switch carriers and phones. How am I paying for it twice?
"If you are customer with Verizon or AT&T.."
Again, it depends on the carrier terms.