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The FedEx theory

S

shanew212

macrumors member
Original poster
Apr 23, 2015
67
0
After reading over various posts throughout the day and over the past few days, I've begun to think more and more that the watches that are still processing are coming via Fedex. Here are some reasons:

1. The Space Gray Sport - These seem to be by far the most rare to get shipping notifications (I haven't seen a single 38mm ship), yet these were by far the most popular config. How is it that Apple wouldn't anticipate this?

2. The black sport band - Again, very rare. Most of the ones shipping now are other colors. Again, there's no way Apple wouldn't anticipate the black sport band being the most popular.

3. Fedex is usually the carrier of choice for Apple...and many of the accessories are shipping quickly (some the next day!) via Fedex.

4. The Apple Watch deliveries so far have been manufactured after the pre order date. So Apple decided to make these all in 2 weeks?

So what's more likely? That Apple, who has one of the most sound supply chains of any company, is going to miss demand on the most popular Watch config out there....

Or, that Apple produced a ton of the models they thought would be most popular and got them to Fedex early. Maybe Fedex has a warehouse of Apple Watches already assembled waiting for shipment tonight. The accessories got shipped to the same place and, without a hold, have begun going out. The reason these wouldn't have charged yet is because Apple is paying for the Fedex warehouse space. They still technically own the title to the goods. The UPS orders were supposed to be store inventory, but, due to demand outclassing supply, they diverted those to pre orders.
 
Last edited:
Sounds plausible.

As someone who got their order confirmation e-mail at t+04 with a 4-6 week shipping window on a 42mm black sport I'm hoping for a miracle :cool:
 
Makes perfect sense.

Especially the Space Gray part, and the pink. Haven't even seen one pink ship but yet had the 4/24 start of the window.
 
TO BACK UP THE FEDEX THEORY: All data is from a thread on orders still processing.
 

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Yeah, I think you might be on the right track here. I ordered at 12:02 SG 38mm and haven't heard a peep. Hoping these get released into the wild here overnight so it's at my doorstep in the AM. I have no doubt they will come through for the rest of us!!!
 
yeah but the people who got ship notifications were charged a few hours prior to shipping; alot of us have not been charged yet so if we were going to magically see them tomorrow why haven't we been charged now?

I want this to work as much as anyone but it just doesn't add up.
 
killawat said:
yeah but the people who got ship notifications were charged a few hours prior to shipping; alot of us have not been charged yet so if we were going to magically see them tomorrow why haven't we been charged now?

I want this to work as much as anyone but it just doesn't add up.
Click to expand...

Shhhhh! :apple:
 
killawat said:
yeah but the people who got ship notifications were charged a few hours prior to shipping; alot of us have not been charged yet so if we were going to magically see them tomorrow why haven't we been charged now?

I want this to work as much as anyone but it just doesn't add up.
Click to expand...

If they are sitting in a Fedex warehouse on hold, it's likely that Apple would be paying for that space. If the warehouse were to burn down, for example, Fedex wouldn't be responsible because they could claim Apple was making them hold the inventory there until the 24th. Apple wouldn't charge people until those actually go to ship.

I work in Finance at a tech company and this actually happens a good amount. We can't recognize the revenue until the title transfers to the shipping company. Sometimes we have to pay if inventory sits in a 3rd party's warehouse then defer that revenue until it leaves.
 
shanew212 said:
After reading over various posts throughout the day and over the past few days, I've begun to think more and more that the watches that are still processing are coming via Fedex. Here are some reasons:

1. The Space Gray Sport - These seem to be by far the most rare to get shipping notifications (I haven't seen a single 38mm ship), yet these were by far the most popular config. How is it that Apple wouldn't anticipate this?

2. The black sport band - Again, very rare. Most of the ones shipping now are other colors. Again, there's no way Apple wouldn't anticipate the black sport band being the most popular.

3. Fedex is usually the carrier of choice for Apple...and many of the accessories are shipping quickly (some the next day!) via Fedex.

4. The Apple Watch deliveries so far have been manufactured after the pre order date. So Apple decided to make these all in 2 weeks?

So what's more likely? That Apple, who has one of the most sound supply chains of any company, is going to miss demand on the most popular Watch config out there....

Or, that Apple produced a ton of the models they thought would be most popular and got them to Fedex early. Maybe Fedex has a warehouse of Apple Watches already assembled waiting for shipment tonight. The accessories got shipped to the same place and, without a hold, have begun going out. The reason these wouldn't have charged yet is because Apple is paying for the Fedex warehouse space. They still technically own the title to the goods. The UPS orders were supposed to be store inventory, but, due to demand outclassing supply, they diverted those to pre orders.
Click to expand...

I've been beating the fedex drum for days on here.

This is too big a rollout to only rely on one carrier. UPS's tracking system is updates once a label is reported created to UPS. FedEx tracking numbers won't appear online until the label is scanned- which could be at the hub tonight. It will be interesting to see what happens over night.
 
I agree with you and posted a thread about it yesterday. Most of the watches were already being store in regional hubs. Mine is a 42mm space gray and I was only charged yesterday and received a shipping notice today. But...I don't think it has actually shipped yet. I'm guessing it will ship in a couple of hours and arrive at my local hub in the early morning to be placed on the truck.
 
While I'd like to believe in this, I can't. We'd see movement by now, some sort of notification about it. It would have snuck out somewhere.

Here and Reddit show no signs of any Fedex or any movement of the 38mm SGS. Also, a poster put up a quote from a senior service rep saying there are manufacturing issues with the grey aluminum models.
 
So orders that are still processing can still be edited. Particularly, a free gift message can still be added. How would this be possible if the watches were no longer in apples hands (if they were in fedex hands already)?
 
Randy7fx said:
So orders that are still processing can still be edited. Particularly, a free gift message can still be added. How would this be possible if the watches were no longer in apples hands (if they were in fedex hands already)?
Click to expand...

This is a good point, unless the gift messages won't actually show up this late (and are a site glitch), or if Apple is having Fedex assemble the packaging. This would somewhat explain the terrible accessory packaging being floated around this site.
 
Randy7fx said:
So orders that are still processing can still be edited. Particularly, a free gift message can still be added. How would this be possible if the watches were no longer in apples hands (if they were in fedex hands already)?
Click to expand...

yeah, good point. I've been tempted to try and add one just to see if it errors out but I dont want to effect my date.
 
Randy7fx said:
So orders that are still processing can still be edited. Particularly, a free gift message can still be added. How would this be possible if the watches were no longer in apples hands (if they were in fedex hands already)?
Click to expand...

In theory, since you haven't yet been billed they could allocate your watch to someone else at the shipping hub and place an order for a new customized one.

Unlikely, but possible.
 
Kent01 said:
While I'd like to believe in this, I can't. We'd see movement by now, some sort of notification about it. It would have snuck out somewhere.

Here and Reddit show no signs of any Fedex or any movement of the 38mm SGS. Also, a poster put up a quote from a senior service rep saying there are manufacturing issues with the grey aluminum models.
Click to expand...

Service reps don't know anything about the Apple supply chain.
 
I actually had the same idea.

I ordered a 42mm SS with BSB and a 42mm space gray with BSB, both still processing.

The last thing I ordered from Apple on the afternoon of 4/9, I received via FedEx. I received shipping notification at 11:03 PM that night and received the item two days later on the 11th via standard shipping. Looking at the tracking number, it shipped earlier that day, but I wasn't notified so I didn't know the tracking number. I didn't receive a charge on my card until the 10th, that actually went through after I received the item.

This confirms that Apple ships items via FedEx before notifying the user and the charge wouldn't even show up until after.

I also noticed that everyone I've read about with shipping information is via UPS. I posted on the other thread and not a single person replied that they were receiving the item via FedEx.
 
Randy7fx said:
So orders that are still processing can still be edited. Particularly, a free gift message can still be added. How would this be possible if the watches were no longer in apples hands (if they were in fedex hands already)?
Click to expand...

Don't ruin my hope! :mad:
 
I'm here to squash your theory. UPS has the contract for the watches. How do I know? I have been working there for the past 9 years. FedEx screwed up years ago and we won the Apple contract. Sure you might see some accessories ship thru FedEx but 99.99% of the watches are UPS. I'm talking about launch day products. Good luck with your algorithm
 
cmichaelb said:
This is too big a rollout to only rely on one carrier. UPS's tracking system is updates once a label is reported created to UPS. FedEx tracking numbers won't appear online until the label is scanned- which could be at the hub tonight. It will be interesting to see what happens over night.
Click to expand...

Is it though? I don't know how many iPhones usually ship the first day v/s the apple watch first day?
 
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