iPhone 12 mini The iPhone Mini Failed (And That's Okay)

[Wowfunhappy]

Here's what I find super odd.

When all iPhones were small (pre iPhone 6 days), I longed for a larger iPhone, so I would be able to view websites that weren't optimized for mobile. With a 4.7" screen, I could read just about anything in landscape mode; on a <4" screen, not so much.

Nowadays, basically every website is mobile-optimized, so I don't need such a big screen. But all iPhones are large.

I'm still rocking a 6S, but whenever that finally dies I have my sights set on a Mini, no question. I'll get whatever the most-recent model is in that size.

 

[JPack]

Jump directly to discounting the iPhone 12 form factor? In what world is the fall of 2023 a jump?? It's 2.5 years from now.



The iPhone Mini will sell better when it's cheaper. That's pretty obvious. And the SE2 Plus? You want to throw hypothetical phones into the mix now? Come on mate.......

As I mentioned earlier, that would be jumping over the iPhone X/Xs/11 form factor.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377677792402403328

 

[Barbareren]

Apple has decided to discontinue it after next year. It has failed indeed.

Do provide a link where Apple has officially stated that the Mini-line of iPhones will be discontinued in 2022. I’ll be waiting ⏰

 

[JPack]

I just want to jump in on the next SE Speculations. While I agree it's too early to make the 5.4" as the low cost SE by 2023, I don't see Apple letting go of all the money they invested with the production process for that form factor.

The only precedent we have for such move is with the iPhone 5c but even then, it shared some process with the 5s.

Sure, there's the sunk cost R&D, but it might not mean much.

Experienced managers know not to double down on failure. You don't throw good money after bad money. Otherwise, the iPhone SE would be based on iPhone 5C. And the HomePod would be updated instead of being discontinued.

We have evidence sales of iPhone 12 mini are weak. Consumers prefer larger and larger display sizes. How much sense does it make to relaunch a known weak selling 5.4" product in 2024 or later? Versus refreshing the XR with 5G for example?

 

[Barbareren]

We have evidence sales of iPhone 12 mini are weak. Consumers prefer larger and larger display sizes. How much sense does it make to relaunch a known weak selling 5.4" product in 2024 or later? Versus refreshing the XR with 5G for example?

"Evidence" based on it being on the market for how long? Less than 6 months? During a worldwide pandemic. What if the 12 mini and the 13 mini sales start picking up significantly later this year and next year, then what?

These are all unsubstantiated speculations, nothing more.

 

[ericg301]

But really it's a phone for people who don't want to use their phone that much... it doesn't need the latest and greatest to serve it's function. When the small one was the SE, it fulfilled it's role much easier.

As much as I love extremely capable small electronics, the time for electronics being smaller as a selling feature is over I think.

To me its the opposite. I use my mini MORE than my previous XS because it's more portable, lighter and fits in a pocket easily. Sometimes I forget it's there. Where the bigger phones let you know they're around, ya know?

 

[tranceking26]

I reckon Apple'll give it one more try, with people more likely to be able to visit stores and try it out.

 

[blairh]

As I mentioned earlier, that would be jumping over the iPhone X/Xs/11 form factor.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377677792402403328

What do you mean by 'jumping over the iPhone X form factor'??

A 6.1" punch-hole iPhone in 2023 will cost more than an iPhone Mini in the lineup that same year.

 

[blairh]

Do provide a link where Apple has officially stated that the Mini-line of iPhones will be discontinued in 2022. I’ll be waiting ⏰

Ming-Chi has reported it. You can dismiss that all you want. The man isn't going to report such a thing if it isn't happening.

 

[blairh]

We have evidence sales of iPhone 12 mini are weak. Consumers prefer larger and larger display sizes. How much sense does it make to relaunch a known weak selling 5.4" product in 2024 or later? Versus refreshing the XR with 5G for example?

You seem unable to comprehend why sales are weak. It's because of the SE and the price tag of the Mini. Imagine a future lineup where there is no SE and the Mini is far cheaper. Then you will see the Mini shine. The issue is not that there isn't a market for an iPhone Mini. There just isn't at the current price and it doesn't help to have the cheap SE for sale to boot.

 

[McScooby]

The fact that Ming-Chi is saying that the iPhone Mini will be gone by 2022 means it's an abject failure for Apple. In no universe did Apple want this to happen. They wanted the Mini to be a sales success and a category that could remain for many years to come in the lineup. That clearly has not happened.

Two things happened.

1. Consumers have shown us that they don't want to spend $700 and up for a tiny iPhone. For $100 more you could get an iPhone 12 which provides a larger screen and more battery life. The only reason to get the Mini in that comparison would be for the size alone.

2. The iPhone SE. Updated in early 2020, this device isn't that much larger than the iPhone Mini and costs nearly half the price. It also may have been some random good luck for the SE that it offered Touch ID in a period of time when we were all wearing masks.

Here's what I believe will happen. We are getting a new iPhone Mini in 2021. In 2022 the 2021 iPhone Mini will remain in the lineup however there will be no 'new' Mini model that year. In 2023 Apple will discontinue the SE and replace it with the 2021 iPhone Mini. At that point Apple can sell it in the $400-$500 price range where it will both act as the cheapest iPhone in the lineup and a great option for people that want a compact iPhone. I also think it makes a ton of sense to have the smallest iPhone in the lineup be the cheapest too.

Yes I believe there is still a strong market for a compact iPhone moving forward. Just not at $700 and up.

Couple of other things happened that no-one seems to have latched onto;

• Covid - with most of the world on lockdown, the market for a small phone is out the window, if most folk aren't out'n'about why upgrade to a smaller more portable phone, just keep the older larger phone or upgrade for a year at the same larger device.
• iPhone SE launched 6 months prior, so folk in the market for a smaller device jumped on that bandwagon, cannibalising what would've been Mini territory.
• Some folk are now on a 3 year cycle due to increasing iPhone prices, so at least another 2 years before we see true reflection for demand
• People don't want to lose fingerprint access (think older folk, possibly even disabled folk) and are awaiting under display tech before they jump models. Mini with fingerprint & face id would be the true model to compare to.
• Some people want a smaller iPhone where the cameras aren't gimped as a mini pro model

There's easily a market for +$700 small iPhones, just have to give it at least 4 years (3 from now) to realise the complete market and provide what the market wants.
It's a bit like the HomePod - they haven't released it in all markets with Siri available in all languages before deeming it a failure, then again it's prob been pulled to stop kickback from the incoming upgraded model that's due to replace it.

 

[Barbareren]

Ming-Chi has reported it. You can dismiss that all you want. The man isn't going to report such a thing if it isn't happening.

Lol. Yes, I’m sure he’s clairvoyant and can see several years into the future. Such silliness. You do understand the difference between a rumour and an official statement, right?

 

[keti2377]

The title of this thread is wrong as the iPhone 12 mini has not really ‘failed’ has it. It has sold enough units (in the millions) to be the 8th highest selling phone in January worldwide. It just has not sold as well as the larger mainstream iPhone 12 models, and that was to be expected as it is more of a niche iphone. Other factors also didn’t help the 12 mini sales like being sold a month later than the 6.1 models, as well as the pandemic not allowing people to go into stores to see and feel the device. I feel the price should also have been £50 cheaper.

It will be interesting to see how the 13 mini sells, with lockdown hopefully now over in countries like the UK, US and Australia with their high level vaccination programs.

The actual phone itself though is an amazing master piece of engineering, just feels great in the hand and looks stunning with the flat edge iPhone 4 design.

Well apparently the millions of 12 Mini that were sold was still lower than what Apple expected even though it is a niche iPhone. They stopped production and now have to *pay* Samsung because they did not sell enough iPhone 12 Mini. If all this is true, I can see why people think it was a failure for Apple. Honestly, I think it was the price that stopped people from buying it.

 

[blairh]

Lol. Yes, I’m sure he’s clairvoyant and can see several years into the future. Such silliness. You do understand the difference between a rumour and an official statement, right?

You clearly have absolutely no idea who Ming-Chi is and what he does. He does not report 'rumors'. He is an analyst for TF International Securities and arguably the most famous and respected Apple analyst in the world. Again, you can dismiss his reporting all you want. If he says an iPhone Mini is not coming in 2022, then an iPhone Mini is not coming in 2022.

 

[blairh]

Couple of other things happened that no-one seems to have latched onto;

• Covid - with most of the world on lockdown, the market for a small phone is out the window, if most folk aren't out'n'about why upgrade to a smaller more portable phone, just keep the older larger phone or upgrade for a year at the same larger device.
• iPhone SE launched 6 months prior, so folk in the market for a smaller device jumped on that bandwagon, cannibalising what would've been Mini territory.
• Some folk are now on a 3 year cycle due to increasing iPhone prices, so at least another 2 years before we see true reflection for demand
• People don't want to lose fingerprint access (think older folk, possibly even disabled folk) and are awaiting under display tech before they jump models. Mini with fingerprint & face id would be the true model to compare to.
• Some people want a smaller iPhone where the cameras aren't gimped as a mini pro model

There's easily a market for +$700 small iPhones, just have to give it at least 4 years (3 from now) to realise the complete market and provide what the market wants.
It's a bit like the HomePod - they haven't released it in all markets with Siri available in all languages before deeming it a failure, then again it's prob been pulled to stop kickback from the incoming upgraded model that's due to replace it.

There is no proof that a $700 and up iPhone Mini will work. If anything, we have seen that it won't. Given that Apple is going to stop making new iPhone Mini's in 2022, that means they will not be giving it '4 years'. Instead I believe they will simply lower the price of the device by 2022 and keep it in the lineup, eventually positioning it at the entry model by 2023.

 

[CrazyForCashews]

Fingers crossed the iPhone 13 Mini has TouchID.

 

[Barbareren]

You clearly have absolutely no idea who Ming-Chi is and what he does. He does not report 'rumors'. He is an analyst for TF International Securities and arguably the most famous and respected Apple analyst in the world. Again, you can dismiss his reporting all you want. If he says an iPhone Mini is not coming in 2022, then an iPhone Mini is not coming in 2022.

Believe whatever you want. The fact is that it is very much still unsubstantiated speculations until an official statement has been made, no matter who is spreading the rumours.

 

[blairh]

Believe whatever you want. The fact is that it is very much still unsubstantiated speculations until an official statement has been made, no matter who is spreading the rumours.

No, it is not 'unsubstantiated speculations'. Ming Chi has extremely reputable sources. Hence why he is so respected and his reports are published on countless respected tech sites across the world. If that isn't good enough for you, that's your issue man.

 

[Barbareren]

No, it is not 'unsubstantiated speculations'. Ming Chi has extremely reputable sources. Hence why he is so respected and his reports are published on countless respected tech sites across the world. If that isn't good enough for you, that's your issue man.

Ugh... I am of course familiar with the guy, but the fact remains that it will remain a rumour until it has been officially confirmed. I don’t understand why that simple concept is so hard for you to fathom. And the very idea that he has made a prediction (because that’s what it is, no matter how much you adore the man), that we won’t see another Mini 3 years from now is just ludicrous as the market is constantly changing, and of course because of the fact that the Mini has barely been on the market for 6 months. So, no, his unsubstantiated speculations and predictions regarding the Mini in particular is not good enough for me man.

 

[danny842003]

If the 12 mini had adequate price, better battery and telephoto lens instead of the ultra wide, it could be a hit. I would buy it in a heartbeat. Honestly, I'd buy even smaller iPhone.

Why would the telephoto make it more of a hit? Haven’t missed it since I got my iPhone 11. The ultra wide is so much more useful and the iPhone 11 sold a bucketload.

 

[blairh]

Ugh... I am of course familiar with the guy, but the fact remains that it will remain a rumour until it has been officially confirmed. I don’t understand why that simple concept is so hard for you to fathom. And the very idea that he has made a prediction (because that’s what it is, no matter how much you adore the man), that we won’t see another Mini 3 years from now is just ludicrous as the market is constantly changing, and of course because of the fact that the Mini has barely been on the market for 6 months. So, no, his unsubstantiated speculations and predictions regarding the Mini in particular is not good enough for me man.

My final message to you. It's 2 years from now. Not 3. He's not guessing. He's not making a prediction. He has countless reliable inside sources. He has definitive information that a new Mini will not be released in 2022. You clearly have no idea how he operates given your last reply to me. Again, it's not speculation. It's not a prediction. It's not a hunch. He operates on the most reliable sources one can imagine. And with that, goodbye forever.

 

[Barbareren]

My final message to you. It's 2 years from now. Not 3. He's not guessing. He's not making a prediction. He has countless reliable inside sources. He has definitive information that a new Mini will not be released in 2022. You clearly have no idea how he operates given your last reply to me. Again, it's not speculation. It's not a prediction. It's not a hunch. He operates on the most reliable sources one can imagine. And with that, goodbye forever.

Apple would only allow for so much information to get leaked, don’t be naive. I very much doubt that Apple has already decided if they are going to discontinue the Mini-line or not - 2 years from now. That would be a very premature decision based on around only 6 months of data regarding a pretty different new product to the lineup.

 

[JPack]

You seem unable to comprehend why sales are weak. It's because of the SE and the price tag of the Mini. Imagine a future lineup where there is no SE and the Mini is far cheaper. Then you will see the Mini shine. The issue is not that there isn't a market for an iPhone Mini. There just isn't at the current price and it doesn't help to have the cheap SE for sale to boot.

Why would Apple rearrange their entire iPhone strategy just to push the mini?

Tim Cook has said a couple times the SE is critical in bringing in Android switchers and users in emerging markets, like India and Africa. It serves as a gateway device to the iPhone and App Store. I don't need to image a future lineup without the SE because it doesn't make any sense. That's like saying, "imagine a lineup without the 6.7" Pro Max, you'll see the 6.1" shine!"

You suggest Apple use a mega price cutting strategy on the mini. When was the last time you've seen Apple under Tim Cook do such a thing? Apple sells things based on merit, not price. If they have to pull the price lever, it means the product has failed.

 

[JPack]

Apple would only allow for so much information to get leaked, don’t be naive. I very much doubt that Apple has already decided if they are going to discontinue the Mini-line or not - 2 years from now. That would be a very premature decision based on around only 6 months of data regarding a pretty different new product to the lineup.

Apple doesn't have a choice. Apple has to let Asian display suppliers know and bid on contracts. Suppliers need time to acquire tools, build lines, and ramp.

September 2022 is not two years from today. It's 18 months.

In April 2019, we already knew Apple would launch 5.42", 6.06", and 6.67" devices in 2020. Guess what happened in 2020? In March 2016, we knew Apple would launch a 5.8" OLED device in 2017. Guess what happened in 2017?

Deciding in 2021 to kill the mini for 2022 isn't premature. It's a deadline if they want to have products on time for 2022.

 

[Runs For Fun]

Apple doesn't have a choice. Apple has to let Asian display suppliers know and bid on contracts. Suppliers need time to acquire tools, build lines, and ramp.

September 2022 is not two years from today. It's 18 months.

In April 2019, we already knew Apple would launch 5.42", 6.06", and 6.67" devices in 2020. Guess what happened in 2020? In March 2016, we knew Apple would launch a 5.8" OLED device in 2017. Guess what happened in 2017?

Deciding in 2021 to kill the mini for 2022 isn't premature. It's a deadline if they want to have products on time for 2022.

Exactly. Supply chain leaks are much much harder for Apple to control.