I doubt it’s all so complicated. Apple will likely update the mini and iMac before the end of the year, assuming Intel releases Comet Lake S soon.
I don’t know what you mean by “storage issue” or why you think it means Apple would abandon 21.5 and 27” iMacs for a 24” iMac. I see no linkage. There’s no reason to kill a popular product like the 27” iMac, and replacing the 21.5” with a new 24” monitor adds cost to the lowest priced model. Not a good plan.
btw I wouldn’t say the mini was refreshed, I’d say they axed a low-spec SKU. The price cuts at all storage capacities are of course welcome, but as far as we know there’s been no actual refresh. NAND prices have been falling for over a year; Apple had two previous price cuts (March and July 2019).
It could turn out that there are changes though, maybe they just weren’t significant enough for Apple to bother mentioning.
The Mac mini 2020 appears to be a 2018 mode with storage doubled, I wasn't expecting Apple to refresh until the model was 2 years old. As it is 18 months appears to be on the early side. The 2019 iMac is only 12 months old at this point so certainly would not expect a refresh given its recent history pointing at 18 month refreshes.
The 'storage issue' pertains to how Apple would progress from offering 1Tb+ HDD/Fusion Drive to going SSD only in the perception of consumers.
For Apple, the average Joe might get a bit confused if the 1Tb storage minimum across the range is suddenly replaced by 256Gb SSD in models they come to know and 'love'.
On that reasoning, if you eliminate the 21.5" and 27" iMac and create a new product, people are more willing to accept a 'drop' in storage capacity because they can't compare like with like any more.
The marketing reasoning behind the iMac Pro is that it's a 'new product' but it's not a problem as 1Tb SSD is obviously plenty of storage.
In effect a 24" 4.5k iMac Air is a new product. People will be more inclined to accept a 256Gb base storage without it being a stumbling block based on expectations of the previous model because there isn't one.
On that same basis, I argue that keeping the 21.5" iMac around, with Fusion Drives, as an entry level SKU makes sense as transitional model much like Apple kept non retina 21.5" models around.
And by extension Apple continue to order the 8th generation Coffee Lake B CPUs that are fuelling the Mac mini to potentially keep that model going till, say, Q1 2022 which would be close to the discontinue date of the 8th gen desktop CPUs.
But what about the Comet Lake S CPUs which we think will be going into desktop Macs? Let's hope that they will because that means that Intel are producing suitable B variants for Apple but I was thrown off by the unexpected refresh of the Mac mini. If it was getting Comet Lake S in October I'd have been minded to leave the Mini for another 6 months assuming that was the plan.
The fact that the 2019 iMac hasn't so far received a refresh is also a curiosity but having looked at the storage options there's probably little that Apple would want to do with that and it makes even less sense if they then refreshed it again 6 months later with a major update as the 2019 model would only have been out for 12 months to date and iMacs have generally been on an 18 month cycle in recent generations.
But then you look at what Apple have to do to get the iMac to T2:
a. Increase price to deal with T2 CPU
b. Switch from Fusion drive to SSD (means more cost, even though NAND is cheap enough for Apple to double storage options in models from 16" MacBook Pro to Mac mini and various iPads)
c. Figure out how to explain why 256Gb of SSD has replaced 1Tb Fusion Drive, despite 'costing more' - 512Gb sounds more likely at an even greater cost.
d. Hope that Intel have suitable B variant CPU (ideally Comet Lake S) they are willing to offer and can promise the same in the future if not with every generation then with every other one.
Apple did this with the Mac mini by virtually doubling the price of the entry level while removing the high capacity hard drive for a small SSD.
Apple probably have price points to hit and adding T2 and SSD probably couldn't be done without pushing the price up despite Apple's good deals on NAND.
A 27" iMac probably deserves to start with 512Gb SSD as a high ticket item (on a par with how the 16" MacBook Pro starts), and add the cost of a T2 in there and you could be adding $500 across the board to 27" iMacs on current price and that's before Intel confirm that they'll do a B variant Comet Lake.
Despite Apple's hedging and buying power in NAND I think that's still a $300 uplift making the base 27" iMac break the $2k limit with top SKU possibly over $2700.
Ironically, the top SKU 27" iMac looks like it would go to 512Gb SSD with no extra cost but I reckon it will come with 1Tb SSD, on the basis that it's currently 2Tb Fusion Drive, for perhaps a $200-$300 uplift.
Of course, Apple may not want to push the price up, so the way they bring it down is to make do with a smaller screen as part of a redesign package.
Here's my reasoning:
1. Intel haven't confirmed that B variants of the Comet Lake S CPUs will be available. And Apple probably already know what the long terms plans are so might decide to skip that if Intel said they wouldn't be doing any more in the future. Apple did this with Skylake which had a version with Iris Pro 580. The MacBook Pro 15" 2016 simply went to a discrete GPU on both SKUs. The delayed mid 2017 Skylake iMacs went with a mobile Kaby Lake CPU for the entry level which is still on sale in the 21.5" form factor!
2. Desktop SKU orders may be on a downward trajectory so Apple probably couldn't order as many CPUs as they would have (and this is before a potential coronavirus related downturn) - some of the iMac buyers may have bought iMac Pros, others may have bought laptops - the 16" MacBook Pro with the magic keyboard being a strong sales driver. Apple could decide to consolidate CPU orders.
3. The H series 45w CPUs will always be suitable for Apple due to the 16" MacBook Pro. It then makes you wonder if Apple could negotiate a very sweet deal by Intel to bulk buy more of them for use in a desktop and they can then refresh the iMac range as often as the MacBook Pro if they choose to.
4. Going with a smaller, cheaper to produce, 4.5k Retina panel, eliminating the HDD, choosing a CPU and GPU that doesn't need as much of a cooling solution, and easy to VESA mount is my logical basis for an iMac Air. It keeps the price reasonably sane while offering greater flexibility in mounting.
5. New product means Phil Schiller doesn't have to compare last year's benchmarks to this year's.
So here's my range:
2 SKUs of 21.5" iMac, an October 2020 refresh (no T2) but keeping the Coffee Lake B CPU (shared with the Mini). I would suggest that the base model non retina goes away, and the mid tier and top tier 21.5" become the new base spec and top tier - effectively with $200 price cut.
3 SKUs of 24" 4.5k iMac Air in October 2020. T2 CPU, 512Gb SSD on base and mid tier, 1Tb SSD on top model. Comet Lake H CPU - shared with MacBook Pro 16" - as a new model Apple can then set a new price point without having to stick with existing ones, I would suggest a $1499-$1599 starting price.
2 SKUs of 27" 5k iMac Pro this year. Base SKU emerges with lower spec GPU to hit a $4k price point thanks in part to reduced Intel prices as well. I'd launch that earlier than October to catch people who might have prevaricated over a refreshed iMac by comparison. If there's to be a redesign too then bringing back the RAM access door would be nice.
