The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[gusping]

I’ve been following this thread with bated breath and second guessing the M2/M2pro mini release scenarios.

I finally came to the conclusion that with new product price rises and the inevitable exchange rate rises in the UK, which I expect to be sizeable in their own right, I was going to be looking north of £1500 for an M2 mini with at least 24GB RAM. I’m also not convinced it won’t still be a little light on ports, meaning I need to factor in an external hub.

So with that in mind I bit the bullet and ordered a base Max Studio from the Apple refurbished store for £1799, which given I suspect the Studio will get an exchange rate increase in the near future felt like a small premium from what I was originally planning.

I’m happy with 512ssd as my working Lightroom files and catalogue are on an external ssd as I’ll need to access it on my MBP also.

I know there’s some debate over the increased chance of picking up someone’s returned whining fan but as long as it harmonises with my tinnitus I’ll give it a go.

Let us know how you get on! I keep umming and ahing about the Mac Studio. It's a tough call here in Europe, given the price of every Mac will likely rise in price by a significant amount alongside any newly released Macs.

 

[pshufd]

The FOMC meets next week and will likely raise 0.75%. Currency changes will be more based on the outlook as the rise itself is already baked in.

 

[hoodlum90]

This would be disappointing if true.

Tim Cook casts doubt on new M2 MacBook Pros in 2022 - Current Mac Hardware Discussions on AppleInsider Forums

Based on comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook during the quarterly earnings report, the odds of a November release for a new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro have dropped.

forums.appleinsider.com

In opening statements, Cook addressed the analysts directly.

"As we approach the holiday season, with our product lineup set, I'd like to share my gratitude to our retail AppleCare and channel teams for the work they are doing to support customers."

 

[pshufd]

This would be disappointing if true.

Tim Cook casts doubt on new M2 MacBook Pros in 2022 - Current Mac Hardware Discussions on AppleInsider Forums

Based on comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook during the quarterly earnings report, the odds of a November release for a new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro have dropped.

forums.appleinsider.com

Mac sales were up 25% YoY in the third quarter. Demand is booming - all this while demand for Intel and AMD chips isn't so great. Why launch a new model when customers you have such strong sales for your current products? Basically schedule your launch for when demand dips.

 

[EugW]

This would be disappointing if true.

Tim Cook casts doubt on new M2 MacBook Pros in 2022 - Current Mac Hardware Discussions on AppleInsider Forums

Based on comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook during the quarterly earnings report, the odds of a November release for a new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro have dropped.

forums.appleinsider.com

That settles it. No new Mac minis until the new year.

Well, I guess the good news is I've gotten extremely good value from my used Intel Mac mini purchase last year. Assuming we get a new M2 (and perhaps M2 Pro) Mac mini in the spring, this purchase would have cost me just $10 per month to bridge the gap between my defunct cheese grater Mac Pro to Apple Silicon Mac mini transition. 🙃

This Intel Mac mini tops out at Monterey, but by spring, I'll be ready for Ventura on a new Mac mini, after the major 13.0 bugs are worked out. 🙂

 

[CWallace]

At WWDC 2017 Apple announced the iMac Pro and launched new MacBooks, MacBook Pros and iMacs.

WWDC 2023 might be a "Pro Hardware" event as well, with a new Apple Silicon Mac Pro, new Pro Display XDRs in 27" and 32" form factors, updates for the 14" and 16" MacBook Pros and Mac Studio and finally a "Mac mini Pro".

 

[pshufd]

This Intel Mac mini tops out at Monterey, but by spring, I'll be ready for Ventura on a new Mac mini, after the major 13.0 bugs are worked out. 🙂

I've been running Ventura since release and it is far more stable than Monterey at launch and for about nine months. There are lots of bugs in the Ventura forum but I haven't run into them. I ran into a bunch of them when Monterey launched. I feel quite good about Ventura.

 

[EugW]

I've been running Ventura since release and it is far more stable than Monterey at launch and for about nine months. There are lots of bugs in the Ventura forum but I haven't run into them. I ran into a bunch of them when Monterey launched. I feel quite good about Ventura.

Monterey at launch was worse, yes. 😛 Nonetheless, I'm going to wait a while before installing Ventura on my main machine, which is a 2017 iMac. OK, maybe I won't wait until spring, but at least until 13.1 is out. At least.

I have Ventura on my 2017 MacBook and it runs speedily but I've noticed a few annoyances, like a legit Apple background process showing up in the list of background services from unknown developers.

I haven't had much time to play in Ventura though, since I don't use that laptop much these days. I haven't bothered trying Stage Manager much either yet, although on first glance it doesn't seem to be my cup of tea.

 

[pshufd]

Monterey at launch was worse, yes. 😛 Nonetheless, I'm going to wait a while before installing Ventura on my main machine, which is a 2017 iMac. OK, maybe I won't wait until spring, but at least until 13.1 is out. At least.

I have Ventura on my 2017 MacBook and it runs speedily but I've noticed a few annoyances, like a legit Apple background process showing up in the list of background services from unknown developers.

I haven't had much time to play in Ventura though, since I don't use that laptop much these days. I haven't bothered trying Stage Manager much either yet, although on first glance it doesn't seem to be my cup of tea.

The main reason I upgrade to Ventura was the new weather app. I don't really care about any other features. Windows 10 has a great weather app and Apple's is similar. I installed Parallels and Windows 11 and they removed the weather app! I will update my production system to Ventura as I've tested my production software on my MacBook Pro running Ventura.

I guess a poll on stability might be a good idea on the Ventura forum.

 

[sublunar]

I’ve been following this thread with bated breath and second guessing the M2/M2pro mini release scenarios.

I finally came to the conclusion that with new product price rises and the inevitable exchange rate rises in the UK, which I expect to be sizeable in their own right, I was going to be looking north of £1500 for an M2 mini with at least 24GB RAM. I’m also not convinced it won’t still be a little light on ports, meaning I need to factor in an external hub.

So with that in mind I bit the bullet and ordered a base Max Studio from the Apple refurbished store for £1799, which given I suspect the Studio will get an exchange rate increase in the near future felt like a small premium from what I was originally planning.

I’m happy with 512ssd as my working Lightroom files and catalogue are on an external ssd as I’ll need to access it on my MBP also.

I know there’s some debate over the increased chance of picking up someone’s returned whining fan but as long as it harmonises with my tinnitus I’ll give it a go.

If you're going to be seriously needing 24Gb of RAM and expect to use more than 2 Thunderbolt ports (or need to use one to connect an external hub or thunderbolt dock) I'd be getting one of the £1799 refurbished Mac Studios on the UK refurb store.

I have concerns about coil whine too which is why I went with a 14" MacBook Pro instead (some comparative bargains to be had on them, not least with the increased 14-15% 'standard' refurbished discount being applied in the UK now - it used to be 10%)

That settles it. No new Mac minis until the new year.

Well, I guess the good news is I've gotten extremely good value from my used Intel Mac mini purchase last year. Assuming we get a new M2 (and perhaps M2 Pro) Mac mini in the spring, this purchase would have cost me just $10 per month to bridge the gap between my defunct cheese grater Mac Pro to Apple Silicon Mac mini transition. 🙃

This Intel Mac mini tops out at Monterey, but by spring, I'll be ready for Ventura on a new Mac mini, after the major 13.0 bugs are worked out. 🙂

My theory on this is that the MacBook Pro 14 and 16 models need the M2 Max as an option - and Apple probably decided to launch those with a new Mac Studio at the same time.

If those CPUs are delayed anyway as the Mac Studio would then look like a very odd machine out as the MacBook Pros get M2 Pro/Max CPUs months in advance.

I guess on the bright side it gives more time for people thinking about getting remaining M1 Pro/Max Macs at the 2021 prices - unless Apple decide to unilaterally raise prices in the next few weeks.

I imagine they might not want people to get some sort of extra discount on 2021 prices on Black Friday so watch out for a potential price increase in the next 3 weeks 🙄

 

[theluggage]

My theory on this is that the MacBook Pro 14 and 16 models need the M2 Max as an option - and Apple probably decided to launch those with a new Mac Studio at the same time.

Or maybe, just maybe, there was never any real reason to expect Apple to launch new 14/16 MBPs only a year after the last models - a major re-design - were released. The only thing Apple religiously updates every 12 months is the iPhone - which is a very different (and more fashion-driven) market.

The Intel Macs frequently went 18 months without an update. The Mini went 4 years (2014-2018), and then 2 years (2018-2020, and that's not counting the i5/i7 Minis still on sale today) and then there's the Mac Pro trashcan... The only Apple Silicon update so far has been the MBA (probably Apple's top-selling Mac & which was overdue a cosmetic re-design) and 13" MBP (which seems to be something Apple are obliged to maintain) - and they had to wait 18 Months.

It was rather optimistic to think that - freed from the yoke of Intel - Apple would be on "M3 Ludicrous" by now, with new Macs like clockwork every September. In reality the M1 gave them a decent head start over the competition and also freed them from direct, simplistic competition with the likes of Dell over who was first to adopt the latest generation of Intel processors and AMD GPUs.

While "analysts" may get the occasional genuine scoop, they also have monthly newsletters to fill & "no big scoops this month" won't cut it. Also, while Apple may leak clues about what is in development, turning those leaks into accurate predictions about actual products is very error prone. Someone leaks info about the lashed-up evaluation board they saw being used to test a new processor and it's "New Mac Pro features 113GB of RAM, 27-and-a-half CPU cores and a single PCIe x1 slot!".

If those CPUs are delayed anyway as the Mac Studio would then look like a very odd machine out as the MacBook Pros get M2 Pro/Max CPUs months in advance.

That's why I don't think we'll be getting a M2 Pro "Mac Mini" anytime soon, since it would be in direct competition with the Studio Max - but I really don't think Apple will care too much about their flagship MacBook Pros being a step ahead of the lower-selling Studio. It's not like they have a stellar track record of keeping their desktops up-to-date. Bear in mind that the Studio Max could easily have been released alongside the M1 Max MBPs, but instead we had to wait 6 months for any sort of "pro" desktop.

 

[pshufd]

Or maybe, just maybe, there was never any real reason to expect Apple to launch new 14/16 MBPs only a year after the last models - a major re-design - were released. The only thing Apple religiously updates every 12 months is the iPhone - which is a very different (and more fashion-driven) market.

The Intel Macs frequently went 18 months without an update. The Mini went 4 years (2014-2018), and then 2 years (2018-2020, and that's not counting the i5/i7 Minis still on sale today) and then there's the Mac Pro trashcan... The only Apple Silicon update so far has been the MBA (probably Apple's top-selling Mac & which was overdue a cosmetic re-design) and 13" MBP (which seems to be something Apple are obliged to maintain) - and they had to wait 18 Months.

It was rather optimistic to think that - freed from the yoke of Intel - Apple would be on "M3 Ludicrous" by now, with new Macs like clockwork every September. In reality the M1 gave them a decent head start over the competition and also freed them from direct, simplistic competition with the likes of Dell over who was first to adopt the latest generation of Intel processors and AMD GPUs.

While "analysts" may get the occasional genuine scoop, they also have monthly newsletters to fill & "no big scoops this month" won't cut it. Also, while Apple may leak clues about what is in development, turning those leaks into accurate predictions about actual products is very error prone. Someone leaks info about the lashed-up evaluation board they saw being used to test a new processor and it's "New Mac Pro features 113GB of RAM, 27-and-a-half CPU cores and a single PCIe x1 slot!".



That's why I don't think we'll be getting a M2 Pro "Mac Mini" anytime soon, since it would be in direct competition with the Studio Max - but I really don't think Apple will care too much about their flagship MacBook Pros being a step ahead of the lower-selling Studio. It's not like they have a stellar track record of keeping their desktops up-to-date. Bear in mind that the Studio Max could easily have been released alongside the M1 Max MBPs, but instead we had to wait 6 months for any sort of "pro" desktop.

I just read a Tim Cook piece from the conference call that half of Mac sales in Q3 were to new Mac customers. That's an astounding conversion rate and it tells me that even the M1 Macs from 2020 have advantages over the new systems with Intel and AMD parts. I see not marketing reason why they need to launch new products right now.

Of course we'd like new products but they may be releasing them when they need to, not when we want them to.

 

[EugW]

Maybe the Mac mini is getting a design overhaul after all! 🤪 And M2 Pro too! 🤓

 

[hoodlum90]

The M1 Mini was announced in Nov 2020 at the same time as the MacBook Air and 13” MacBook Pro. I was surprised when the Mini wasn’t updated this summer so I think this confirms that it will contain at least an M2 Pro variant and Apple wants to announce it at the same time as the 14”/16” M2 MacBook Pro. Otherwise the Mini would have been announced already.

 

[EugW]

This timing makes sense if they want to wait for TSMC N3, for the M2 Pro and M2 Max/Ultra/Ultrax2.

Not that I expect it, but an N3 M2 Pro Mac mini would be cool… literally. 😎

 

[hoodlum90]

This timing makes sense if they want to wait for TSMC N3, for the M2 Pro/Max/Ultra/Ultrax2.

Not that I expect it, but a N3 M2 Pro Mac mini would be cool… literally. 😎

The next MacBook Air will be the first to go on n3 with the M3. Most n3 volume for next year will be reserved for the new iPhone as volume ramps up.

 

[EugW]

The next MacBook Air will be the first to go on n3 with the M3. Most n3 volume for next year will be reserved for the new iPhone as volume ramps up.

Volume iPhone SoC manufacturing doesn’t usually begin until calendar Q2 AFAIK.

Plus, I’m not convinced we will see a new MacBook Air in 2023. I’m thinking 2024.

 

[gusping]

So… do I buy a base Mac Studio?👀

 

[EugW]

So… do I buy a base Mac Studio?👀

Sure, if you want and if you can get a good deal on one.

However, I’m personally going to continue waiting for the new Mac minis. I don’t want to pay the price premium for Mac Studio and I don’t like the height either. Not that I’d necessarily put it there, but it doesn’t actually fit below my 30” Apple Cinema Display. It’s too tall.

Gurman: Apple Planning No New Mac Releases For Remainder of 2022

Apple is not planning to announce any new Macs in the remainder of this year, with all planned releases expected to take place in the first quarter of 2023, including updated versions of the MacBook Pro, Mac mini, and the Mac Pro, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman said today. Writing in his latest Power...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Steve156]

So… do I buy a base Mac Studio?👀

Well the interpretation of Tim's comments and the latest from Gurman today hasn't given me any buyers remorse, or order remorse at the mo, I don't pick up the Studio until Tuesday. I think if I knew for certain a m2pro mini, or simply a M2 with additional ports and at least 24GB configurable, was coming next spring I'd possibly have bought a M1 mini as a stop gap.

But I suspect, the cost of that unit in addition to depreciation of the 'stop gap' M1 would make me wonder why I didn't just get the Studio and get on with things.

My vote is yes. If for no other reason than I won't be alone in my buyers remorse misery should things play out differently haha

 

[EugW]

Well the interpretation of Tim's comments and the latest from Gurman today hasn't given me any buyers remorse, or order remorse at the mo, I don't pick up the Studio until Tuesday. I think if I knew for certain a m2pro mini, or simply a M2 with additional ports and at least 24GB configurable, was coming next spring I'd possibly have bought a M1 mini as a stop gap.

But I suspect, the cost of that unit in addition to depreciation of the 'stop gap' M1 would make me wonder why I didn't just get the Studio and get on with things.

My vote is yes. If for no other reason than I won't be alone in my buyers remorse misery should things play out differently haha

Given the timing of Gurman’s statement, it sounds like he has no additional info this time, and is just interpreting Tim’s and Luca’s comments like the rest of us.

As for Mac Studio, since it is now available for 10% off in the Apple refurb store (and hasn’t seen any forex-related price increases yet outside the US), it is definitely a very good option for many.

It’s just not my preference. It’s too tall and as I mentioned before, if my options are just an M2 Mac mini with 24 GB RAM, with no M2 Pro option and no more ports for $1299, I’d still choose that over a $1799 M1 Max refurb Mac Studio.

 

[MayaUser]

Volume iPhone SoC manufacturing doesn’t usually begin until calendar Q2 AFAIK.

Plus, I’m not convinced we will see a new MacBook Air in 2023. I’m thinking 2024.

Exactly and from power / efficiency stand point, Apple can make the M2 pro/max the first SoC under 3nm if they are indeed coming in April/May
iPhone nowadays is not the most important device from a SoC standpoint...now its the mac after the transition

 

[Steve156]

if my options are just an M2 Mac mini with 24 GB RAM, with no M2 Pro option and no more ports for $1299, I’d still choose that over a $1799 M1 Max refurb Mac Studio.

If currently available or close certainty of imminent arrival, given that choice I’d do the same thing.

 

[EugW]

If currently available or close certainty of imminent arrival, given that choice I’d do the same thing.

Yeah, given that the discounted Mac Studio is available right now, for many it'd be worth the extra money to get its additional features and potentially half a year longer of use to get that Mac Studio now.

I personally am fine to wait though as my current Mac mini still works. It is stuck at Monterey, but I have a Ventura capable 27" iMac sitting right next to it already, and I often don't go all in with a new version of macOS until it hits around x.3 anyway.

 

[Maximara]

- Windows Subsystem for Linux

Which versions? PopOS and Ubuntu run well on my 2013 8 GB iMac.

- Android Development

So you guys don't have anything like Xcode (or Swift) can does development in a reasonable RAM footprint?

- Well…Electron and a bunch of Chrome tabs.

Knowledgeable Mac users know anything Electron based as well as Chrome are steaming piles of hot garbage in terms of RAM usage. Just look at this comparison from back when the whole writes to the SSD panic was going on:

The main reason to be writing to the SSD is if there isn't enough physical RAM available or the program was written by clueless people repeatably smashing their heads into a keyboard. Heck, even Windows users have seen Chrome writing to their SSD even when freaking idol!

Don't blame Apple for going with RAM specs that assume programmers are knowledge people who write sane code. As I said before if your solution is to throw RAM at it than either it is unoptimized code or you have no idea what you are doing.