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The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

BSDnostalgia said:
I've never been good at marketing, so, I'm not someone to ask about it. But, it did seem to me when Wintel was pushing it that the only time I saw these items used en masse was attached to the back of monitors in institutional settings. I think that a lot of people who need a system that inexpensive don't have a keyboard and monitor lying around to use it with, and, don't have an open desk space to put it on. So, the Neo as it is packaged today solves all those problems.

In the institutional case, maybe a small iMac to reduce cost and space? (The iMac as it is configured today is a higher-end system, with a fancier display and higher-end CPU at the bottom end.) If there was a market for it, you could repackage the Neo as an iMac.
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Putting an A series CPU in an iMac would only knock maximum of 200-300 USD off the price of an iMac though, an A series powered iMac would still cost around $1k - come with 2 USB-C ports (let's be generous and have one of them be USB3 and the other USB2 like the MacBook Neo) and would have to drive a 4.5k display (probably the equivalent of 4 Neo screens).

And why not have a VESA mount kit to put a future Mini on the back of any monitor you choose?

If Apple need a revenue stream they could introduce an LTS version of macOS - long term support - which would look after ARM Macs that fall out of support of the main line Mac OS in the coming years. Currently Intel users could boot Linux or Boot Camp Windows but M1 era ARM Macs could be looking at the end of the line for support coming soon.

It wouldn't necessarily need to have the same major feature set of the mainline MacOS but would be nice to have a subset of features available in subsequent OSes going forward.

And to pay for the bug fixes you'd have to log into an AppleID which has an active Apple Creators Studio subscription (I'd suggest a higher end iCloud+ account but I already say that Creators Studio needs to come with iCloud storage anyway).

It's the sort of thing which might soften the blow for people who have invested in high spec Mac Studios or Mac Pros or MacBook Pros although our friends in the Hackintosh community might suddenly wake up at the prospect of a new challenge.

And more importantly Apple wouldn't then need to try and cater at the super low end if people can keep using their older ARM hardware for a bit longer.

An alternative is for the LTS version of macOS software to actually be a super enhanced tvOS Pro which would allow users to repurpose their old Mx era stuff as a very powerful games platform - let's say you'd have to have an active Apple Arcade subscription to use it. But that's something for another section of this forum I'd guess.

Or if Apple feel like they want to walk back into a certain market - why not release an A series CPU in box that can take SATA storage and be a WiFi 7 access point with 2x 10Gig ethernet ports for duty as a router? Yes, the return of Time Capsule! This is mainly because I keep reading reviews of hugely expensive routers from the usual suspects which have reviewer complaints about not enough RAM or horsepower. StorageOS for the win?
 
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M4 Minis are like gold dust according to the Apple store. I wouldn't pick up a refurb one during a busy period as you never know.
 
yellowhelicopter said:
As before, I think there won't be Mac Mini M5 at all. It just doesn't make sense for Apple to release it now, when demand for MM M4 is very high and M6 is coming in a half of year.
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What doesn’t make sense, is that the reason for the delays are the constraints TSMC is experiencing, and you expect a new and much more advanced process node like N2, with substantially lower yields and aimed at the most expensive and higher tier MacBook Pro (OLED with touchscreen) to be the chosen one for an entry level product such as the Mac mini… nah, that doesn’t make sense to me at all.

Apple is going to refresh the desktop Macs with the M5 family sooner or later. Albeit later is unfortunately the most likely one.

My prediction is that while some top tier products such as the new MacBook Pro/Studio/Ultra or the iPad Pro will receive the M6, all other products will remain on M5 for a longer time.

If the supply chain was in a healthier state, I wouldn’t say you’re wrong. I would still disagree but it could be plausible. But seeing that even Tim Cook, a supply chain master, admitted that it’s going to be difficult… that by itself is self revealing of how constrained is the production at TSMC.

And I’m also betting that the next Ultra chip will be an M5 Ultra. I very much doubt we will ever see an M6 Ultra due to the costs and yields of such new manufacturing process. Although I might be wrong here, because the most recent Ultra chip is the M3 Ultra, manufactured with the novel N3B process node.
 
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RAM is expensive right now, SSD chips are expensive right now, the 2nm process is going to be more expensive than 3nm...

Apple is going to either become an even more expensive option for computers and devices, or they are going to have to really reduce their high markups on any physical products that require RAM, SSDs, & 2nm chips...

I think they will be leaning hard into Services to bridge the gap in their earnings...?

I dunno, I just want to see the all-new Mac Studio Ultra (aka the Mac Pro Cube), featuring the all-new M6 Extreme...! ;^p
 
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Guys… I know this isn’t a big clue, but it may be a hint…

I just checked on my country’s Amazon store, looking for the base M4 Mac mini (256/16GB), and… surprise!

IMG_0140.jpeg


Not only it’s in stock, but it also is discounted! And with one week delivery.

Do you think Amazon is trying to get rid of the current stock of M4 Mac minis? If so… maybe it’s because the M5 Mac mini is coming? 🤔
 
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Populus said:
Guys… I know this isn’t a big clue, but it may be a hint…

I just checked on my country’s Amazon store, looking for the base M4 Mac mini (256/16GB), and… surprise!

View attachment 2626474

Not only it’s in stock, but it also is discounted! And with one week delivery.

Do you think Amazon is trying to get rid of the current stock of M4 Mac minis? If so… maybe it’s because the M5 Mac mini is coming? 🤔
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Apple discontinued the 256GB M4 today. So they might be moving stock of a dead SKU.
 
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Isn't it likely that the M5 is going to use differently spec'd memory than the M4, though? If anything, it seems to me that the sudden bingeing on M4's will increase the likelihood of a nearer term rollout of an M5 Mini. Is there any reason to think that Apple can't produce enough M5 chips? The holdup is memory regardless.

And another thing: while I like the Mini/Studio form factors, if someone is desperate to buy an MBP with 64 or 128 GB? Sure, you are paying an extra $500-$1000 for the keyboard/display version, but, if you just have to have an Apple Silicon Mac, why not go that route?
 
BSDnostalgia said:
Isn't it likely that the M5 is going to use differently spec'd memory than the M4, though? If anything, it seems to me that the sudden bingeing on M4's will increase the likelihood of a nearer term rollout of an M5 Mini. Is there any reason to think that Apple can't produce enough M5 chips? The holdup is memory regardless.

And another thing: while I like the Mini/Studio form factors, if someone is desperate to buy an MBP with 64 or 128 GB? Sure, you are paying an extra $500-$1000 for the keyboard/display version, but, if you just have to have an Apple Silicon Mac, why not go that route?
Click to expand...

Tim Cook already said yesterday the bottleneck is SoC, not memory.

Memory is a commodity - as long as you pay more, you can get it. With SoC, there is only one supplier - TSMC. Paying more doesn't make more wafers pass through the fab.
 
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Populus said:
What doesn’t make sense, is that the reason for the delays are the constraints TSMC is experiencing, and you expect a new and much more advanced process node like N2, with substantially lower yields and aimed at the most expensive and higher tier MacBook Pro (OLED with touchscreen) to be the chosen one for an entry level product such as the Mac mini… nah, that doesn’t make sense to me at all.

Apple is going to refresh the desktop Macs with the M5 family sooner or later. Albeit later is unfortunately the most likely one.

My prediction is that while some top tier products such as the new MacBook Pro/Studio/Ultra or the iPad Pro will receive the M6, all other products will remain on M5 for a longer time.

If the supply chain was in a healthier state, I wouldn’t say you’re wrong. I would still disagree but it could be plausible. But seeing that even Tim Cook, a supply chain master, admitted that it’s going to be difficult… that by itself is self revealing of how constrained is the production at TSMC.

And I’m also betting that the next Ultra chip will be an M5 Ultra. I very much doubt we will ever see an M6 Ultra due to the costs and yields of such new manufacturing process. Although I might be wrong here, because the most recent Ultra chip is the M3 Ultra, manufactured with the novel N3B process node.
Click to expand...
Just a refining of an idea I was having in another thread, on the assumption that M6 is going to be expensive due to lower yields. Apple would hide price increases alongside things like OLED/touchscreen for MacBooks but it's harder to do so with desktop models without a form factor change.

Looks like the solution for the Mini is to raise average selling price with M series SKUs by losing the lowest 256Gb storage SKU.

But could it be that a future M5 series mini drops the M5 Pro (which goes into the Mac Studio as a lower base SKU) but gets the A19Pro (with 6 fully functional GPU cores) at the base level? The CPUs would be available after the iPhone 17 Pro goes out of production but they need to keep making them for the Studio Display XDR and presumably the next MacBook Neo. Apple just need to add Thunderbolt controllers to the Mini that aren't present in the Neo unless they're going to cheap out with some additional USB-C controllers instead.

It allows Apple to offer a 256Gb SKU at an even lower entry price if they so wished though.
 
JPack said:
Tim Cook already said yesterday the bottleneck is SoC, not memory.

Memory is a commodity - as long as you pay more, you can get it. With SoC, there is only one supplier - TSMC. Paying more doesn't make more wafers pass through the fab.
Click to expand...

You are referring to this statement:

"This was primarily on iPhone and to a lesser extent on the Mac, and as we talked about in the last call, the constraints were primarily driven by the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on. If you look forward to the June quarter, the majority of our supply constraints will be on several Mac models,"

I'm not sure how to take that. Since we now have RAM inside larger SoCs, does the amount of RAM greatly affect the speed of SoC fabrication? I assume it must, but, I don't know how all the parameters interact. I'm puzzled by why, if memory really isn't a constraint, why are they discontinuing the large memory size M4's?
 
sublunar said:
But could it be that a future M5 series mini drops the M5 Pro (which goes into the Mac Studio as a lower base SKU) but gets the A19Pro (with 6 fully functional GPU cores) at the base level?
Click to expand...

This might make sense since the Mini form factor is already a micro-mini. But, in that case, I hope they add a lower-tier Studio. I'm somewhat flummoxed by the high cost of flash storage in the Studio product line. Regardless, I don't think the M5's are too scarce or expensive since they rolled them out in the Air.
 
BSDnostalgia said:
You are referring to this statement:

"This was primarily on iPhone and to a lesser extent on the Mac, and as we talked about in the last call, the constraints were primarily driven by the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on. If you look forward to the June quarter, the majority of our supply constraints will be on several Mac models,"

I'm not sure how to take that. Since we now have RAM inside larger SoCs, does the amount of RAM greatly affect the speed of SoC fabrication? I assume it must, but, I don't know how all the parameters interact. I'm puzzled by why, if memory really isn't a constraint, why are they discontinuing the large memory size M4's?
Click to expand...

I’m referring to this statement:

“David, the constraint in March and June—the primary constraint—is the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on, not memory.”

Not sure what you mean by “RAM inside larger SoCs.” The RAM sits on the same package as the SoC. The two chips are separate and are driven by different economics and supply chains.

The large capacity DRAM chips fluctuate greatly in price due to AI demand. Apple probably doesn’t want to adjust prices every two weeks. That’s probably why they’re unavailable. But for the vast majority of Mac demand below 128GB, Apple doesn’t appear to be constrained.
 
I would be surprised, because Apple makes billions on desktops, and, all Macs, laptops and desktops, are leveraging the technology being developed for phones. It is the fact that the 25% of revenue on the smaller categories is leveraging the technology of the phones, which are 50% of revenue, that makes the smaller categories profitable. That's why the chassis Mac Pros were dropped -- to do what people wanted required investment in different technological areas. (I still disagree with dropping that category, but, I understand it.)
 
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ifxf said:
Wouldn’t be surprised if Apple discontinued all desktop Macs since they are becoming such a small percentage of Apple’s revenue and most people go for the portability of laptops.
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Everybody knows notebooks are popular, but there's a clear strategic value to desktops. It allows Apple to maintain and expand the iOS and iPadOS ecosystem. Much easier for new developers to spend $799 on Mac mini than $1,099 on MacBook Air.
 
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