I think it's coming. My guess is either at the end of the year for a big holiday sales push (both of the game and of switch 2 consoles), or coinciding with the second Mario Movie (April 2026).My BIGGEST disappointment though, is the lack of a 3D Super Mario launch title! I was sure it would come, given Odyssey is 7,5 years old (!) and never received any post game content. I've played all the 3D Super Mario titles to death, and Odyssey is in my opinion the pinnacle of 3D platformer design, and I was really hoping to see where the next title would go. I am expecting some form of open world in the Mushroom Kingdom approach to it, and really look forward to it. Such a title could win me over in upgrading (That, and the next Zelda).
Then we will probably get a new Zelda in 2027 when the Zelda movie comes out.