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You will not get your phone on the 23rd. This happens every freaking year.
You will receive it on the 24th or after.

You are right. Every year we get email from the Apple store saying we are getting it a day early. When the "Out for delivery" posts start tomorrow will you be on here claiming there will be a man in each yard ready to hold it until the 24th as well?
 
I have had since sunday night a fedex tracking # that still does not work. and today I got this email and still Nothing. I ordered on 6-15-10 at 7:22AM EST.
 

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1) They always had the option to tell FedEx to deliver on any day they wanted so that isn't a real explanation.

2) iTunes activation for home deliveries isn't going to be hard on the servers b/c ATT already has our billing info and no need for another credit check. It's the new activations in-store that are going to tax ATT servers.

3) This is really the same explanation you give in #1, worded differently. Again, Apple could have done this at anytime. It doesn't make sense they would change their marketing course overnight for that reason.

The most logical reason IMHO is that FedEx told Apple that it needed to start delivering phones as soon as it rec'd them or they might not be able to deliver them all on the 24th. I doubt FedEx is in a "Xmas mode" right now w/ staffing and a lot of drivers are probably on vaca, which means temps that don't know their route as well as the main driver.

I think the activations is a big driver here. Say 50% of those pre-orders are deliveries. well you know 90% of those delivered will be activated on the 23rd. Fedex deliveries will scatter the activations throughout the day so the load won't be concentrated. That basically leaves the remaining pre-orders for the 24th. Those will be concetrated around 7,8,9,10am (because of time zones) and then throughout the day. Regardless of the calls necessary for new activations versus upgrades, taking say 300k activations off the servers on the 24th is a smart idea and reduces the risk of the servers being overloaded for activations on the 24th. Given that ATT and Apple can only process so may activation in store per hour, the capacity planning is far more predicatable if you go that route.

I also like the idea of taking the wind out of Droid X sails. Think about it...with all the unboxings, and reviews, and news being published tomorrow about iPhone 4 Droid X gets pushed to the back page...that's a pretty good benefit of doing this for Apple....
 
2) iTunes activation for home deliveries isn't going to be hard on the servers b/c ATT already has our billing info and no need for another credit check. It's the new activations in-store that are going to tax ATT servers.

3) This is really the same explanation you give in #1, worded differently. Again, Apple could have done this at anytime. It doesn't make sense they would change their marketing course overnight for that reason.

2) I'm almost positive that the process at home is this:
a) you plug your iPhone in, your iTunes account feeds SIM data into the iPhone (e.g. your number from a backup of your old phone)
b) your iPhone, now with a number, does some over-the-air activation with AT&T to finish the job.
This is why during the iPhone 2G launch, people were having problems activating their phones from home.

3) This might honestly be an apology for all the June 15 hiccups.

In my opinion, I think it's an error - but now that Apple made all these confirmation emails they're going to have to deliver.
 
You will not get your phone on the 23rd. This happens every freaking year.
You will receive it on the 24th or after.

You need to do a bit more research as apple did this very thing this month with the UK ipad launch. Most people got theirs a day early.
 
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