So the UK left Europe because 37% of the adult population voted to leave? Not exactly a consensus.
Regardless if the decision was right or wrong, the bar should have been 60%, not 37%.
Absolutely, it was such a poorly designed binary referendum even without the total misinformation, mendacity and ignorance which dominated the campaign.
We know the referendum was largely voted for on emotion, very few people know anything about how the EU works (this is a different issue to be concerned about) but even less were even concerned about the effect the EU had in the couple of years before the referendum. The Brexit vote was also a protest vote over 10 years of hard-ship following the global recession, the lack of investment and the cuts in services. It was a perfect storm.
David Cameron will always be considered the biggest fool of British politics for agreeing to the referendum being designed that a simple majority would trigger a result on an advisory referendum when there was no clear understanding what leaving the EU would entail. Even the biggest supporters of Brexit said we'd never leave the single market.
The biggest problem about Brexit was it meant something different to every person that voted for it because it was never articulated more than general statements about taking back control. Other countries couldn't believe we were so naive to have a binding vote of such importance on a simple yes/no vote with what the future might entail.
I attach the image which shows the parlous state the UK finds itself in because of the hardest of Brexits which was chosen by a small number of politicians and the billionaire media company owners who are able to serve extreme right-wing propaganda on a daily basis.
We were never part of the Schengen zone but were part of the EU, we are now not part of the European Economic Area (EEA), the Customs Union, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) - the UK is now completely on its own. Utter madness.
I will say the tide has turned because of the incompetent implementation of Brexit by Tory politicians who thought it would so simple. They never had a clue of what to do after their campaign.
Things like introducing roaming fees will act as a small irritant in the mind of consumers to rejoining the EU. Next summer when European travel likely resumes people will be horrified at having to pay for something that was previously free in their minds. Also the way people will be treated at airports in Europe will be vastly different to how they experienced them before. These are minor but their tangible in how people make decisions about the future.
The Brexit vote was five years ago and yet we are only beginning to feel the effects. The demographic changes in half a decade are huge. From all the people who voted for Brexit who have died to all the teenagers who weren't old enough to vote in 2016 but are now of voting age. Give it another five years and I believe the arithmetic needed for a different result would be very clear in favour of rejoining the EU likely from just new voters replacing voters no longer alive. This doesn't even touch on the people who will have changed their mind about how they voted at the time of the referendum.
The Tory government will try and package the devastating economic effects of Brexit and blame it on the devastating economic effects of the Covid pandemic but the UK is in for some serious pain in the coming years.
The UK will also likely have a new monarch within a decade and that will mean another tectonic shift in the lives of the British. Prince Charles is nowhere near as popular as Queen Elizabeth. Having the face of King Charles on currency will have an impact people.
When the UK does have another vote on rejoining the EU and I think it's going to be in the near/medium term accelerated by the disaster of the pandemic it will almost certainly mean the UK has to agree to the terms of all new entrants into the EU. Therefore Schengen and adoption of the Euro as the currency will be requirements to be re-admitted to the EU.