So you can "discard" part of my rationale because it's accurate? Nice try.
No -- because it's absurd. Since all firms are profit-seeking, the fact that they make a tidy profit does not make everything they produce "poor value". It would mean that everything produced by profitable firms are "poor value" by definition, a clearly silly claim.
Yes, this is true for all forms of insurance, which is why as a general rule, it's financially unwise to be over-insured.
Right. But we don't know if AppleCare over-insures. That's the point. You can't know and I can't know in any particular case until after the event.
-snip-
Also to be taken into consideration on consumer products is that you are insuring an item which depreciates in value very rapidly. It makes sense to consider the premium as a percentage of the value of the product at the end of the term of coverage, not at the beginning. Looked at this way, you might find that the premium is a third to even half of the value of the product at that point in its lifespan.
Even assuming that, you're forgetting that not repairing the machine means you forego the FULL value of the machine then -- not third, not half. So the following:
at the end of three years you might not prefer to apply the cost of insurance to buying a new product instead of repairing the old one.
. . . doesn't at all make sense. You're not just foregoing "the cost of insurance" -- you're also foregoing the value of the repaired Mac!
You can play "for instance" games all day long, but they don't change the basic fact, which is that extended warranties are a losing deal for consumers. Over time, you will pay more in premiums than you will collect in services. This isn't mere speculation. The sellers make this an absolute fact.
This is news, how? How else do you think insurance companies make money? If they paid out more than they collected in premiums, they would be losing money and wouldn't be in the business in the first place. Of course they are leveraging risk and the value you get is the hedge in risk they assume for you. That's the entire
point of insurance. You seem to think that hedging against risk has no value -- that value only consists in what you can claim in the event of catastrophe (which you can't know is coming). This is false and a fundamental misconception of what insurance entails. It is the
assumption of risk that is itself a valuable service. Not factoring this into the calculus means you miss the point entirely.
If, knowing this, you still want to buy extended warranties, then go for it. At least you're doing it as an informed consumer. Just don't try to tell me that they are a "good deal" for consumers when we know that the sellers make completely certain that they are not.
Economics is not a zero sum game. It
can be a good deal for
both sides, for obvious reasons. Because 1. you can't know if your machine will fail 2. if it fails you won't be forced to junk the machine because of high repair costs 3. the insurer is able to spread and hedge the risk in a way that one person cannot.
As to 1 and 2, your assertion of "bad value" only works if you know before hand that it won't fail, or that repair will cost less than what you paid for AppleCare. If the repair costs more, you've already got good value. If it costs less, you're only losing a slight amount on the premium. Is the risk of that slight loss on the premium worth eschewing? You are in effect trading in that risk (of a slight loss) for the risk of junking the whole machine. Either way, you are trading a small risk for a larger one. If you're willing to assume that risk and bet on the longevity of your Mac, that's fine. But seeing as you can't know before hand if you've guessed correctly, assessments of "bad value" before the event can only be pure guesswork.
3 is self-explanatory.
In sum, your absolutist position that it can
never be good value is indefensible. The more reasonable position is that it
can be good value, depending on what actually happens to your Mac during its lifetime. Unlike you, no one here is saying that it is absolutely good/bad value independent of the factual situation.
Saying "I've saved thousands over the years by not getting car insurance" (and yes, car insurers make profits too) is meaningless if you're just generalizing from your own luck of never having been in a car accident. It has zero rational basis.