I don’t have an upgrade cycle; I only upgrade when I see a compelling reason to.
I would be interested in the Air since I find my 16PM too thick and heavy and its battery life much more than I need in a phone—but if the Fold is coming out soon then I’d be more interested in that.
The reason being I’m actually a small phone lover and a small tablet lover (one I use only when I’m out and the other I use only when I’m home, respectively), and I actually got my 16PM because seeing as there are no more even remotely small iPhones, I thought maybe if I lean into it maybe the 16PM could also replace my iPad Mini. After all, my annoyance with using the Mini was I wanted it to act as my complete phone replacement at home but too often I had to go grab my actual phone for some function or another (although this could be solved by bringing iPhone Mirroring to iPadOS).
The 16PM screen is quite a bit smaller than the iPad Mini’s, but that is forgivable. My main complaint is it’s a lot to carry around all the time. I hate it in my pockets and it only barely fits in my cross body bags (I like them small) making it annoying to put in and take out. And it’s a pain to try to use with one hand. The fold could solve one of those problems for me and help with the other, while also giving me a more iPad Mini-like screen size as a bonus. If it fits well in my pocket then I might even be able to ditch my cross body bag.
For both the Air and the Fold though, my only hesitation is the rumored downgraded camera system. But I was thinking of getting a nice dedicated point and shoot anyway, that I would keep in my cross body bag and only bring on certain occasions.