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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2007

Doctor Q said:
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
robbieduncan -- missed by 227 posts (1.2 posts/day)
dcv -- missed by 321 posts (1.7 posts/day)
Click to expand...

Ah but I've been on holidays for the past 2 weeks. This is probably not going to happen again in the next 6 months! I had thought I would manage to scrape into the 50 for this list but failed...
 
~Shard~ said:
Damn, now you've ruined my fun - I was hoping emw would pick up on that before anyone else. :( I like leaving grammatical inconsistencies for him to find and make note of. ;) :D
Click to expand...
I think both are acceptable these days, aren't they? Besides, I was on a break... ;)
 
A picture is worth 1000 words

Click image for "live action" version!

mad-jew-takes-over.gif
 
What we need is a revaluation of the mad jew posting currency. One hundred mj posts to be equal to one normal post.
 
Is Mr Anderson going to keep pace or just let Mad Jew run away with the title.
 
MacNut said:
Is Mr Anderson going to keep pace or just let Mad Jew run away with the title.
Click to expand...
According to my calculations, Mr. Anderson is going to quit his job, sell his kids into slavery, and trade his wife for a faster Internet connection, all so he can spend as much time at MacRumors as he once could. Of course, if I forgot to carry a digit somewhere, that could be entirely wrong.
 
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 3, 2007

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew           32.3      2     +1
  2   jsw               17.8      5     +3
  3   dmw007            17.5     21    +18
  4   mkrishnan         15.1      7     +3
  5   WildCowboy        14.8     31    +26
  6   Chundles          14.2     35    +29
  7   ~Shard~           14.1      6     -1
  8   yellow            13.4     13     +5
  9   dynamicv          12.6    ---    ---
 10   raggedjimmi       12.5     27    +17
 11   Doctor Q          12.0      4     -7
 12   Blue Velvet       11.4     15     +3
 13   katie ta achoo    11.3     38    +25
 14   devilot           10.9     30    +16
 15   bousozoku         10.7     10     -5
 16   MacRumorUser      10.6    ---    ---
 17   Abstract          10.5     14     -3
 18   2nyRiggz          10.0    ---    ---
 19   Mitthrawnuruodo    9.6     23     +4
 20   emw                9.5     25     +5
 21   Applespider        9.5     24     +3
 22   iMeowbot           9.2     28     +6
 23   balamw             8.9    ---    ---
 24   PlaceofDis         8.9     22     -2
 25   max_altitude       8.3     46    +21
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
 26   CanadaRAM          8.2     32     +6
 27   dcv                8.0    ---    ---
 28   vniow              7.8     19     -9
 29   Jaffa Cake         7.1    ---    ---
 30   gekko513           7.0     45    +15
 31   iBlue              6.9    ---    ---
 32   EricNau            6.8    ---    ---
 33   Mord               6.7     43    +10
 34   Nermal             6.6     17    -17
 35   Eidorian           6.4    ---    ---
 36   Lau                6.4     47    +11
 37   GFLPraxis          6.3    ---    ---
 38   eva01              6.0    ---    ---
 39   lilstewart         5.8    ---    ---
 40   robbieduncan       5.5    ---    ---
 41   Chip NoVaMac       5.1     26    -15
 42   ITASOR             5.0    ---    ---
 43   IJ Reilly          5.0    ---    ---
 44   Counterfit         4.7     42     -2
 45   rdowns             4.7    ---    ---
 46   nagromme           4.7     39     -7
 47   Sun Baked          4.6     18    -29
 48   Mr. Anderson       4.6      1    -47
 49   mpw                4.5    ---    ---
 50   edesignuk          4.4      9    -41
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
  3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2007, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
 
Comments on the End of Time Projections

First off, note that the computations below were made from January 3 data, before mad jew became the #1 poster and Mr. Anderson became #2. That's why mad jew is shown moving from the 2nd to 1st position.

I used the same weighted post rate formula that I used 6 months ago, because it's the best I've found so far. See the link in the previous post for a description of the formula.

--- At the Top ---

As expected, mad jew tops the End of Time projections, with a weighted post rate of 32.3, even higher than his projected post rate from 6 monts ago (28.5 posts/day). This post rate is 81% higher than the 17.8 post rate of jsw, who is in second place, followed very closely by #3 dmw007 with a weighted post rate of 17.5 posts/day.

Rounding out the Top 10 with post rates above 12 posts/day are mkrishnan, WildCowboy, Chundles, ~Shard~, yellow, dynamicv, and raggedjimmi. Doctor Q didn't quite make the Top 10.

There are 15 members projected to post at a rate of 10 to 16 posts/day, putting them in positions #4 through #18.

Closest race:
Having just gotten over the intense trauma of losing his #1 position, Mr. Anderson is again found on the losing end in a close race. (OK, he didn't mind becoming the #2 poster, but it sounds more dramatic that way!) In any case, Sun Baked was barely able to hold position #47 in the End of Time ranks over Mr. Anderson, with a difference of a mere 0.017 posts/day. That's about one post every 2 months!

Next closest:
Counterfit over rdowns by 0.018 posts/day, also about 1 post every 2 months.

Big leads (10% or more over the next in line):
mad jew 81% lead over jsw, dmw007 16% over mkrishnan, vniow 11% over Jaffa Cake, edesignuk 10% over puckhead193

--- Changed members ---

Compared to the Top 50 today, the End of Time Top 50 is vastly different.

There's been much more turmoil in the Top 50 membership than in the past. Since the same formula was used, it's the habits of the members that have changed.

Seventeen members are projected to join the Top 50 list:
dynamicv (#9), MacRumorUser (#16), 2nyRiggz (#18), balamw (#23), dcv (#27), Jaffa Cake (#29), iBlue (#31), EricNau (#32), Eidorian (#35), GFLPraxis (#37), eva01 (#38), lilstewart (#39), robbieduncan (#40), ITASOR (#42), IJ Reilly (#43), rdowns (#45), mpw (#49)

Something odd: For the second time in a row, the top two new Top 50 members were in positions #9 and #16. Last time, 2nyRiggz and Chundles were in those positions; this time, dynamicv and MacRumorUser.

iBlue managed to show up in the same position (#31) in the End of Time Top 50 as she did six months ago, even though she is not in the current Top 50.

Seventeen members projected to fall off the current Top 50 list (in descending order by weighted post rate):
jelloshotsrule, iGAV, arn, scem0, wrldwzrd89, Rower_CPU, iJon, wdlove, eyelikeart, jefhatfield, MacBandit, MrMacman, Lacero, clayj, shadowfax, rainman::|:|, iGary

Based on the January 3 data, no members retain their current rank. Based on ranks as of January 6, mad jew retains the #1 position.

Just missed the Top 50, for the second time in a row:
puckhead193, by .41 posts/day (1 post every 2.4 days), just ahead of jelloshotsrule.

--- Changes in rank ---

Highest projected rise in rank:
Chundles, up 29 slots, from #35 to #6

Next highest (all those up 20 or more slots):
WildCowboy, up 26 slots from #31 to #5
katie ta achoo, up 25 slots from #38 to #13
max_altitude, up 21 slots from #46 to #25

Highest projected loss in rank:
Mr. Anderson, dropping a record 47 slots, from #1 to #48 (near the theoretical limit of 49)

Next highest (all those over 20 or more slots):
edesignuk, down 41 slots from #9 to #50
Sun Baked, down 29 slots from #18 to #47

Special mention:
In a current Top 100, dynamicv would be #85, yet is projected to be in the Top 10 at the end of time!

--- Trivia ---

ITASOR, with a weighted rate of 5.0 posts/day, is the only one in the End of Time Top 50 with an all-uppercase name. Member SPG, with a weighted rate of 0.1 posts/day, was not much competition in that category.

Five MATLOC members (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) are in the Top 50: jsw, emw, dcv, Lau, mpw

Men vs Women: The women in the Top 20 are in three consecutive positions: Blue Velvet (#12), katie ta achoo (#13), and devilot (#14), proof that they are up to something. Almost as suspiciously, dcv (#27) and vniow (#28) are in consecutive positions further down the ranks. Then again, there are larger numbers of men in consecutive positions, perhaps banding together to defend the Top 10.

The total number of posts by the combined Top 50 members at the End of Time will be exactly the same as that projected 6 months ago, 12 months ago, 18 months ago, and so on. Quite a coincidence, don't you think? (Rerun alert: Same dopey math joke as 6 months ago.)
 
Doctor Q said:
Men vs Women: The women in the Top 20 are in three consecutive positions: Blue Velvet (#12), katie ta achoo (#13), and devilot (#14), proof that they are up to something. Almost as suspiciously, dcv (#27) and vniow (#28) are in consecutive positions further down the ranks. Then again, there are larger numbers of men in consecutive positions, perhaps banding together to defend the Top 10.
Click to expand...

You absolutely made my night. Thanks. :)

And thanks, too, for all this work you do (and for tempting everyone to post a little bit more or less).

We need more Q adoration.
 
Doctor Q said:
--- Changes in rank ---
Next highest (all those up 20 or more slots):
WildCowboy, up 26 slots from #31 to #5
katie ta achoo, up 25 slots from #38 to #13

=-=-=-=

Men vs Women: The women in the Top 20 are in three consecutive positions: Blue Velvet (#12), katie ta achoo (#13), and devilot (#14), proof that they are up to something. Almost as suspiciously, dcv (#27) and vniow (#28) are in consecutive positions further down the ranks. Then again, there are larger numbers of men in consecutive positions, perhaps banding together to defend the Top 10.
Click to expand...


*whew* I'm only the third highest change in rank; makes me feel a little better about myself! :p

And of course the women are up to something nefarious; we always are... Muahaha!
 
Doctor Q said:
...
while bousozoku is back into the Top 10 (#10, up from #11). bousozoku wins the all-time "flip-flop" award about being in the Top 10, as he apparently can't make up his mind about it. Proof: Look at his rankings over the past 5 six-month periods: #10, #11, #10, #11, #10!
...
Click to expand...

I'm working on position 10.5. It's very difficult to maintain. Why be ordinary?
 
sushi said:
LOL. Just can't settle on a number I see! ;) :p :D

I just looked at the list and realized that I am in the top 100. Surprised!
Click to expand...

I beg your pardon but 10.5 is a number. It's not an integer but it is a number. Back to math class for you.
 
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