Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2009

[Doctor Q]

This is the 12th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts.

Measurements were taken on January 3rd.

Please remember that these charts and this discussion are for amusement and general interest only. Don't get yourself in trouble by posting in the forums simply to pad your post count.

Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2009

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,208   0.1    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       23,859  14.1    3     +1
  3   Mr. Anderson    22,477   0.0    2     -1
  4   Doctor Q        22,100   6.2    5     +1
  5   jsw             21,640   3.1    4     -1
  6   Blue Velvet     18,756  12.4    8     +2
  7   ~Shard~         18,040   3.3    6     -1
  8   Abstract        17,880  13.0   11     +3
  9   PlaceofDis      17,340   6.7   10     +1
 10   edesignuk       17,267   5.7    9     -1
 11   Eidorian        16,962  15.3   16     +5
 12   wdlove          16,567   0.0    7     -5
 13   iGary           16,252   9.8   13      0
 14   devilot         15,524   3.5   12     +2
 15   bartelby        15,100  10.6   17     +2
 16   yellow          14,264   0.5   14     -2
 17   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   15     -2
 18   raggedjimmi     13,742   8.6   19     +1
 19   WildCowboy      13,451   3.0   18     -1
 20   iBlue           13,105   6.8   21     +1
 21   robbieduncan    12,843  14.6   31    +10
 22   Sun Baked       12,618   5.8   23     +1
 23   MacNut          12,292   8.6   28     +5
 24   CanadaRAM       11,993   2.2   22     -2
 25   eyelikeart      11,896   0.0   20     -5

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 26   Mitthrawnuruodo 11,768   2.3   25     -1
 27   rdowns          11,510  14.5   41    +14
 28   Jaffa Cake      11,495   8.4   32     +4
 29   Nermal          11,186   1.2   27     -2
 30   Rower_CPU       11,167   0.0   24     -6
 31   emw             11,061   0.2   26     -5
 32   IJ Reilly       11,050  10.2   36     +4
 33   dmw007          10,540   0.6   29     -4
 34   Applespider     10,479   3.5   33     -1
 35   vniow           10,254   0.0   30     -5
 36   Lau              9,810   7.1   47    +11
 37   arn              9,705   1.8   35     -2
 38   twoodcc          9,579   5.1   44     +6
 39   jelloshotsrule   9,575   0.0   34     -5
 40   Queso            9,536   2.9   38     -2
 41   sushi            9,273  14.4  ---    ---
 42   Chundles         9,161   3.0   45     +3
 43   psychofreak      9,078   0.0   37     -6
 44   xUKHCx           9,005   6.9  ---    ---
 45   nagromme         8,993   2.4   46     +1
 46   katie ta achoo   8,950   0.0   39     -7
 47   MacRumorUser     8,888   0.2   40     -7
 48   jefhatfield      8,803   0.0   42     -6
 49   Mord             8,660   2.1   50     +1
 50   iMeowbot         8,647   0.0   43     -7

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2008), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Other stats and charts:

Length of membership (the next post)
6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
​

 

[Doctor Q]

Length of membership

Mean average among active posters in the Top 50: 58.7 months (63.1 if you include inactive posters)
Standard deviation: 15.2 (17.3 if you include inactive posters)

Among active Top 50 posters, the longest membership remains the same:

arn, 92.9 months (7.7 years)
​

However, the next two from 6 months ago, Rower_CPU and Mr. Anderson, post so little that the honors among active posters instead go to

Second place: MacNut, 84.0 months (7.0 years)

Third place: edesignuk, 81.4 months (6.8 years)
​

Inactive jefhatfield is the first Top 50 member to pass 100 months of membership: 101.9 months (8.5 years).

Shortest among active members: Queso, 34.1 months (2.8 years)

Second-shortest: xUKHCx, 35.6 months (3.0 years)
​

The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. What's interesting is that the groups didn't move forward, but stayed relatively stable. As we saw last time, there is a dropoff in the 5 to 6 year range. It appears that more high posters who joined in 2002 or 2004 have stuck around than high posters who joined in 2003. Theories are welcome!

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

Changed members

Only two new members joined the Top 50 list, and neither made the Top 25:

sushi (#41)
xUKHCx (#44)​

They displaced two members who were near the end of the Top 50 list 6 months ago, and who are now no longer in the Top 50:

Eraserhead (was #48)
iGAV (was #49)​

Changes in rank

Highest rise in rank: rdowns up 14 slots to #27

Next highest:

Lau (up 11 to #36)
robbieduncan (up 10 and into the Top 25, at position #21)
​

By coincidence, there was also exactly one large leap into the Top 25 last time (by iBlue), and it was also to position #21.

In the last 12 months, robbieduncan has climbed 23 slots (#44 to #21). Others in the double-digits:

rdowns up 20 slots
IJ Reilly up 17 slots
MacNut up 15 slots
Lau up 12 slots
iBlue up 10 slots
​

Highest loss in rank: iMeowbot, down 17 slots

Next highest:

jefhatfield down 16 slots
Rower_CPU and katie ta achoo, each down 11 slots
jelloshotsrule down 10 slots
​

Only two members retained their position in the Top 50 list:

mad jew (#1)
iGary (#13 for the 3rd time in a row)
​

Here's a little history of ~Shard~'s rank, and the rank I predicted he would have 6 months later, since he's been in the Top 10:

Jan 06: rank 8, predicted to become rank 5
Jul 06: rank 7, predicted to become rank 7
Jan 07: rank 6, predicted to become rank 7
Jul 07: rank 7, predicted to become rank 6
Jan 08: rank 7, predicted to become rank 7
Jul 08: rank 6, predicted to become rank 7

As predicted, he's rank 7. Perhaps 6 and 7 are his lucky numbers.
​

iGAV missed staying on the Top 50 by 34 posts (0.18 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 5.4 days).

Next was skunk, who missed joining the Top 50 by 44 posts (0.24 posts per day, or 1 post every 4.2 days).
​

Changes in the Top 10

mad jew has been very quiet in the forums, but still leads the total post count by 8,349.

mkrishnan, who previously moved past jsw and Doctor Q for the #3 slot, has now moved past Mr. Anderson for the #2 slot. He has 3/4 as many posts as #1 poster mad jew.

jsw, continuing his low post rate, finally slipped to #5, putting Doctor Q at #4.

The higher post rate of Blue Velvet (#6) moved her ahead of ~Shard~ (#7).

Abstract (#8) is now in the Top 10. PlaceofDis (#9) and edesignuk (#10) swapped places.

Inactive wdlove finally dropped out of the Top 10. He's now #12 despite "retiring" from posting in 2005.

The number of members with 20,000 or more posts remains at five, as I predicted 6 months ago. I predicted that 40 of the Top 50 would have 10,000 or more posts. The actual number is 35. I predicted that it would take 8,825 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number is 2% less: 8,647.

Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 670,347 posts at MacRumors (an average of 13,407 each). I predicted it would be 690,488, not anticipating how many members would become less active.


Posts in the last 6 months

This section excludes members who were not in my radar 6 months ago, since I didn't track their post histories. I try to spot up-and-coming top posters as well as the current set, but sometimes I miss predicting the arrival of a new high poster. This time I spotted them all.

Highest number of posts in 6 months: Eidorian, 2,812 posts, 15.3 posts per day

Next-highest:

robbieduncan (2,687, 14.6 posts/day)
rdowns (2,667, 14.5 posts/day)
sushi (2,650, 14.4 posts/day)
mkrishnan (2,600, 14.1 posts/day)

They were the only members with over 2,000 posts in 6 months.

No members had over 3,000 posts in 6 months.
​

Another 13 members had post counts between 1,000 and 2,000 in 6 months (down from 16 last time).
​

Members with the highest post counts in six months who did not make the Top 50:

jessica. (2,920 posts, 15.9 posts/day)
clevin (2,353 posts, 12.9 posts/day)
bigandy (1,376, 7.5 posts/day), below his 9.1 posts/day average from the preceding 6 months
​

No other member made more than 1,000 posts in the last 6 months.

Lowest post counts:

These inactive or barely active members stayed in the Top 50: Mr. Anderson, wdlove, bousozoku, eyelikeart, Rower_CPU, vniow, jelloshotsrule, psychofreak, jefhatfield, iMeowbot. Did anybody notice that long-time high-poster bousozoku popped in and made over 20 posts on August 7? If you blinked, you missed it.

Next-lowest post counts in 6 months:

katie ta achoo (7 posts)
mad jew (26 posts)
emw (30 posts)
​

Excluded members and posts

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. Due to the way bot posts are now accounted for, MacBytes had a huge jump in post count, and would have been #14 on the Top 50 (going from 1,122 posts 6 months ago to 15,843 posts today, an increase of 14,721 posts! Feel free to tease MacBytes about spamming if you meet him/her/it on the street.

Pseudo-member MacRumors would not have made the Top 50, but jumped in post count by 2,250, also artifically. Among those who would not qualify for the Top 50, that trails only jessica.'s 6-month total.

Members who retire from posting voluntarily are included in my stats and the Top 50 since it's interesting to see how long they hold their positions.

Members can lose posts due to deletion or Wastelanding of threads, or in rare cases when there is a change in which forums count posts or a thread is moved to a different forum. In the last 6 months, this reduced the post count of several Top 50 members. The highest artificial drops:

Mr. Anderson lost 896 posts!
Rower_CPU lost 257 posts
eyelikeart lost 216 posts
​

Even if Mr. Anderson had retained his post count, he would still have dropped to position #3.

I will now start working on my 6-month Top Poster projections!

 

[Blue Velvet]

For some reason, I've been looking forward to this, this time around. I don't know why, maybe I'm going slightly loopy for stats.

It appears that more high posters who joined in 2002 or 2004 have stuck around than high posters who joined in 2003. Theories are welcome!

The class of 2004 was the best, that's why.

 

[MacNut]

It is like one last xmas gift from Dr Q.

 

[irmongoose]

And he delivers, without fail. Great stuff.


irmongoose

 

[MacNut]

It seemed that 2002 and 2004 had the biggest influx of new members, what was the number of joiners in 2003.

Q how long until the top 50 is all over 10,000 posts.

 

[zap2]

always fun to see!

I've slipped from post as much, though its been picking up as of late!

 

[NC MacGuy]

Alphaod has >7,700 and over 23 PPD in less than a year. I am surprised he didn't get on the venerable list.

 

[dukebound85]

Alphaod has >7,700 in less than a year. I am surprised he didn't get on the venerable list.

ive also noticed Tallest Skil jumping through the rankings too as of late

i thought i had more than 1300 posts in the last 6 months for sure. maybe not lol

 

[sushi]

Most interesting.

What I really like is his projections and how close they are. Really nice statistical analysis.

 

[GoCubsGo]

ive also noticed Tallest Skil jumping through the rankings too as of late

i thought i had more than 1300 posts in the last 6 months for sure. maybe not lol

That could be, but when things go to wasteland, they do not count.

 

[NC MacGuy]

That could be, but when things go to wasteland, they do not count.

Jessica. - quite the little post whore.

 

[MacNut]

Jessica. - quite the little post whore.

That title goes to Mr Downs. Up 14 spots.

 

[NC MacGuy]

That title goes to Mr Downs.

You're not doing so bad yourself cutie.

 

[MacNut]

You're not doing so bad yourself cutie.

I cut back this time. Only 1500 or so posts.

 

[GoCubsGo]

Jessica. - quite the little post whore.

Who are you calling whore? Slut!

That title goes to Mr Downs. Up 14 spots.

rdowns FTW. I didn't notice my name in there. 6 months, looking back ... the more restless/nervous I am the more I post. 6 months ago is the timeframe something big changed in my life. This would explain everything. Unfortunately for all of you it didn't go as hoped so you're stuck with me!!!!

You're not doing so bad yourself cutie.

Wow NC, wanna tell us something we don't know?

 

[Abstract]

That could be, but when things go to wasteland, they do not count.

And posts in certain forums such as the Politics, Marketplace (maybe?), and um.....that other one.

If you counted posts in those other forums, I think the post rates of some of these people would be FAR different. I'd still be ranked high though.

 

[GoCubsGo]

And posts in certain forums such as the Politics, Marketplace (maybe?), and um.....that other one.

That's right.

 

[NC MacGuy]

Who are you calling whore? Slut!

Looking at that list just makes me feel a lotta less than.... I'll take my pleasure anyway I can get it.

 

[Eidorian]

Alphaod has >7,700 and over 23 PPD in less than a year. I am surprised he didn't get on the venerable list.

I'm surprised as well.

 

[sushi]

That could be, but when things go to wasteland, they do not count.

I know that I've lost a few posts due to threads going to wasteland.

On a side note, I wonder how many posts that I would have if I had not multi-quoted.

That title goes to Mr Downs. Up 14 spots.

Yes, he has moved up 14 spots.

But Jessica has posted an average of 15.9 posts verses his average of 14.5 posts during this period.

Jessica. - quite the little post whore.

Snort!

 

[GoCubsGo]

Looking at that list just makes me feel a lotta less than.... I'll take my pleasure anyway I can get it.

Well ...
Don't worry about your post count NC, you'll get it up one day.

 

[Abstract]

But Jessica has posted an average of 15.9 posts verses his average of 14.5 posts during this period.

She's the new jew. She's also mad.

 

[MacNut]

She's the new jew. She's also mad.

But she looks better.