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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2006

jsw, just chalk it up to your new mod responsibilities. It'll make you feel a lot better about it.

Posting on official business doesn't count against you...and while you're online working for the man, you happen to make a few personal posts. No harm, no foul.
 
WildCowboy said:
Posting on official business doesn't count against you...and while you're online working for the man, you happen to make a few personal posts. No harm, no foul.
Click to expand...


jsw, how can you argue with that sort of logic? ;) :)
 
hmmm the majority of the posters in this thread are in the top 50, that tells you something, doesn't it?
 
PlaceofDis said:
hmmm the majority of the posters in this thread are in the top 50, that tells you something, doesn't it?
Click to expand...

The really scary part is that the top 50 posters account for about 15% of the total number of posts ever made on MR.
 
PlaceofDis said:
hmmm the majority of the posters in this thread are in the top 50, that tells you something, doesn't it?
Click to expand...

Is that some sort of veiled reference PlaceofDis? ;) :D

WildCowboy said:
The really scary part is that the top 50 posters account for about 15% of the total number of posts ever made on MR.
Click to expand...

Interesting statistic WildCowboy. That number does seem a bit high. :)


I wonder what percentage of the total posts on MR belong solely to mad jew? ;) :D
 
dmw007 said:
I wonder what percentage of the total posts on MR belong solely to mad jew? ;) :D
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Well of the 2,548,283 posts, 15,503 are mad jew's. Therefore he accounts for only 0.608371% of all posts. :)

Edit: WildCowboy beat me to it!
 
2nyRiggz said:
Wildcowboy do I see a little Doc Q in you:)
Click to expand...

Oh yes...Doctor Q and I are definitely cut from the same cloth.

My father is a statistician/probabilist...guess I inherited some of his genes.
 
max_altitude said:
Well of the 2,548,283 posts, 15,503 are mad jew's. Therefore he accounts for only 0.608371% of all posts. :)

Edit: WildCowboy beat me to it!
Click to expand...


Thanks for such a precise answer max_altitude! :)
 
max_altitude said:
Always a pleasure. ;)

On a tangent, why is King Cobra always mentioned in these results as an excluded member. Was his account deleted?
Click to expand...
Yup, there have been a few members in the Top 50 lists who were later bannicated, and each time I note for the curious where they would rank, but I let somebody else have their spot. This time King Cobra is the only one left in Top 50 range. But inactive posters like wdlove and AlphaTech stay on the list as long as their post count holds up.
 
yankeefan24 said:
A long time until I am up there…:(

Thanks Dr. Q!
Click to expand...
It'll be even longer for me. I've been registered, what, over three and a half years now? I'm just now approaching 500 posts (though I lurk a lot). The "Macrumors Regular" title is a little misleading. :p
 
Doctor Q said:
Yup, there have been a few members in the Top 50 lists who were later bannicated, and each time I note for the curious where they would rank, but I let somebody else have their spot. This time King Cobra is the only one left in Top 50 range. But inactive posters like wdlove and AlphaTech stay on the list as long as their post count holds up.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the explanation/clarification! :)
 
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2006

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj   Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan. 4, 2007    Posts  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  -----  ----  -----
  1   Mr. Anderson    22594    1      0
  2   mad jew         22345    3     +1
  3   wdlove          16552    2     -1
  4   jsw             15305    8     +4
  5   Doctor Q        15253    4     -1
  6   iGary           15110   10     +4
  7   ~Shard~         14996    7      0
  8   edesignuk       13209    5     -3
  9   mkrishnan       12648   12     +3
 10   eyelikeart      12107    6     -4
 11   bousozoku       11957   11      0
 12   yellow          11363   15     +3
 13   Rower_CPU       11187    9     -4
 14   Abstract        10016   18     +4
 15   jelloshotsrule   9710   14     -1
 16   Blue Velvet      9474   19     +3
 17   jefhatfield      9454   13     -4
 18   vniow            9122   22     +4
 19   Nermal           8953   17     -2
 20   Chip NoVaMac     8907   21     +1
 21   Mitthrawnuruodo  8882   26     +5
 22   Applespider      8679   30     +8
 23   PlaceofDis       8591   23      0
 24   CanadaRAM        8574   32     +8
 25   Sun Baked        8505   16     -9
Code: 
 26   devilot          8391   35     +9
 27   emw              8007   31     +4
 28   iGAV             7524   27     -1
 29   MacBandit        7403   20     -9
 30   nagromme         7289   33     +3
 31   Lacero           7022   28     -3
 32   arn              6999   29     -3
 33   scem0            6998   25     -8
 34   iMeowbot         6950   38     +4
 35   MrMacman         6937   24    -11
 36   Counterfit       6677   39     +3
 37   clayj            6639   41     +4
 38   dmw007           6318   50    +12
 39   raggedjimmi      6216   45     +6
 40   Hector           6091   43     +3
 41   katie ta achoo   6069   47     +6
 42   eva01            6048  ---    ---
 43   iJon             5994   34     -9
 44   grapes911        5921   48     +4
 45   2nyRiggz         5546  ---    ---
 46   shadowfax        5519   36    -10
 47   SiliconAddict    5492   42     -5
 48   rainman::|:|     5462   37    -11
 49   Chundles         5439  ---    ---
 50   robbieduncan     5419  ---    ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection Jan. 4, 2007 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2006 (from Chart #1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.

The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks recently from their usual posting habits, such as 18 years off to raise children.

--- Changed members ---

Four members projected to join the Top 50 list:
eva01 (#42), 2nyRiggz (#45), Chundles (#49), robbieduncan (#50)

Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
wrldwzrd89 (by 14 posts), Mechcozmo, AlphaTech (at long last), Backtothemac

Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
GFLPraxis -- missed by 129 posts
lilstewart -- missed by 599 posts

--- Changes in rank ---

At the top: Mr. Anderson is projected to remain #1, but mad jew will overtake wdlove and nearly hit the #1 spot, projected to become the #1 poster on January 12, 2007

Bunched in the 15000-post range are jsw, Doctor Q, iGary, and ~Shard~, in that order. Rounding out the Top 10 are edesignuk, mkrishnan (also new to the Top 10), and eyelikeart, who holds onto a Top 10 spot by a mere 150 posts over #11 bousozoku.

Only one leaves the Top 10: Rower_CPU (#13).

The number of members with over 10000 reaches a new record 14, with a minimum of 5419 posts needed to qualify for the Top 50. mad jew becomes only the second poster with 20000 posts.

Highest projected rise in rank:
dmw007 (up 12 slots)

Next highest:
devilot (up 9 slots), Applespider and CanadaRAM (each up 8 slots)

Highest projected loss in rank:
MrMacman and rainman::|:| (each down 11 slots)

Next highest:
shadowfax (down 5 slots), Sun Baked, MacBandit, and iJon (each down 9 slots)

Four members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (#1), ~Shard~ (#7), bousozoku (#11), PlaceofDis (#23). (So bousozoku will have to make a little extra effort to keep up his habit of alternating, every 6 months, between being in the Top 10 and not being in the Top 10.)

--- Excluded and inactive members ---

No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.

Three inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50: wdlove (#3) and eyelikeart (#10) near the top and rainman::|:| (#48) near the bottom.

--- Post rates ---

A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her long-term rate. Over their memberships, mad jew has averaged 18.83 posts per day, about 50% more than Mr. Anderson's rate of 12.79 posts per day. However, in the last 6 months, mad jew's rate of 37.22 posts per day has been more than 8 times Mr. Anderson's rate of 4.25 posts per day.

The largest factor by which a post rate has increased is robbieduncan, with a 6-month post rate that is 2.5 times his overall average rate.

Six projected Top 50 members have doubled their long-term rate in the last 6 months:
mad jew, iGary, yellow, Abstract, vniow, grapes911

Three projected Top 50 members barely posted in the last 6 months:
MacBandit and MrMacman (11 posts each), shadowfax (17 posts)

--- Trivia ---

Eleven members in the Top 50 have member names starting with vowels. (I'm pretty sure that "2" isn't a vowel.)

By my projection, by January 4, 2007 there will have been 465862 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members. That's 93.2% of half a million posts!
 
hmm up six spots.. Looks good. :D

I love the stats Q!

ah dmw007 who has the posting problem now? :D
(well, projected posting problem.)
 
Mmmm. 2500+ posts in 6 months to have a go at breaking in to the top 50. Taxi for take-off...engines at full speed...5,4,3,2,1...we have lift off.

I wonder what college will do to my posting? I won't make too many predictions, but I guess I will start making many more posts I don't remember, and occasionally resemble mpw in posting style. ;) :D
 
Doctor Q said:
Eleven members in the Top 10 have member names starting with vowels. (I'm pretty sure that "2" isn't a vowel.)
Click to expand...


Does that make sense? If this is a false statement then I claim the right to void all other statistics by Doctor Q and his associates. In addition, all claims of member's having or not having lives must be revoked. :p

Thanks for the stats, scary as they are.
 
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