Comments on the 6-Month Projections
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks recently from their usual posting habits, such as 18 years off to raise children.
--- Changed members ---
Four members projected to join the Top 50 list:
eva01 (#42), 2nyRiggz (#45), Chundles (#49), robbieduncan (#50)
Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
wrldwzrd89 (by 14 posts), Mechcozmo, AlphaTech (at long last), Backtothemac
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
GFLPraxis -- missed by 129 posts
lilstewart -- missed by 599 posts
--- Changes in rank ---
At the top: Mr. Anderson is projected to remain #1, but mad jew will overtake wdlove and nearly hit the #1 spot, projected to become the #1 poster on January 12, 2007
Bunched in the 15000-post range are jsw, Doctor Q, iGary, and ~Shard~, in that order. Rounding out the Top 10 are edesignuk, mkrishnan (also new to the Top 10), and eyelikeart, who holds onto a Top 10 spot by a mere 150 posts over #11 bousozoku.
Only one leaves the Top 10: Rower_CPU (#13).
The number of members with over 10000 reaches a new record 14, with a minimum of 5419 posts needed to qualify for the Top 50. mad jew becomes only the second poster with 20000 posts.
Highest projected rise in rank:
dmw007 (up 12 slots)
Next highest:
devilot (up 9 slots), Applespider and CanadaRAM (each up 8 slots)
Highest projected loss in rank:
MrMacman and rainman::|:| (each down 11 slots)
Next highest:
shadowfax (down 5 slots), Sun Baked, MacBandit, and iJon (each down 9 slots)
Four members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Mr. Anderson (#1), ~Shard~ (#7), bousozoku (#11), PlaceofDis (#23). (So bousozoku will have to make a little extra effort to keep up his habit of alternating, every 6 months, between being in the Top 10 and not being in the Top 10.)
--- Excluded and inactive members ---
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Three inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50: wdlove (#3) and eyelikeart (#10) near the top and rainman::|:| (#48) near the bottom.
--- Post rates ---
A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her long-term rate. Over their memberships, mad jew has averaged 18.83 posts per day, about 50% more than Mr. Anderson's rate of 12.79 posts per day. However, in the last 6 months, mad jew's rate of 37.22 posts per day has been more than 8 times Mr. Anderson's rate of 4.25 posts per day.
The largest factor by which a post rate has increased is robbieduncan, with a 6-month post rate that is 2.5 times his overall average rate.
Six projected Top 50 members have doubled their long-term rate in the last 6 months:
mad jew, iGary, yellow, Abstract, vniow, grapes911
Three projected Top 50 members barely posted in the last 6 months:
MacBandit and MrMacman (11 posts each), shadowfax (17 posts)
--- Trivia ---
Eleven members in the Top 50 have member names starting with vowels. (I'm pretty sure that "2" isn't a vowel.)
By my projection, by January 4, 2007 there will have been 465862 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members. That's 93.2% of half a million posts!
