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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2008
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Is it bad that I had to go back to the January '08 list to see that I'm not on it anymore? 
Freakin' spammers.
Freakin' spammers.
6-Month Projections
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July 2008
Columns:
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July 2008
Code:
Proj Projection Proj Cur Delta
Rank Jan 4, 2009 Posts Rank Rank
---- -------------- ------ ---- -----
1 mad jew 33,051 1 0
2 Mr. Anderson 23,592 2 0
3 mkrishnan 22,887 3 0
4 Doctor Q 22,831 5 +1
5 jsw 22,200 4 -1
6 PlaceofDis 18,877 10 +4
7 ~Shard~ 18,270 6 -1
8 Abstract 18,220 11 +3
9 Blue Velvet 18,065 8 -1
10 edesignuk 17,971 9 -1
11 Eidorian 16,651 16 +5
12 wdlove 16,646 7 -5
13 devilot 16,531 12 -1
14 bartelby 15,841 17 +3
15 iGary 15,799 13 -2
16 yellow 15,457 14 -2
17 bousozoku 14,159 15 -2
18 WildCowboy 14,117 18 0
19 iBlue 14,081 21 +2
20 raggedjimmi 13,814 19 -1
21 MacNut 13,271 28 +7
22 CanadaRAM 12,763 22 0
23 robbieduncan 12,440 31 +8
24 Sun Baked 12,429 23 -1
25 Mitthrawnuruodo 12,192 25 0
Code:
Proj Projection Proj Cur Delta
Rank Jan 4, 2009 Posts Rank Rank
---- -------------- ------ ---- -----
26 eyelikeart 12,112 20 -6
27 Eraserhead 11,951 48 +21
28 emw 11,766 26 -2
29 Rower_CPU 11,496 24 -5
30 Nermal 11,469 27 -3
31 Jaffa Cake 11,463 32 +1
32 xUKHCx 11,006 --- ---
33 IJ Reilly 10,874 36 +3
34 psychofreak 10,863 37 +3
35 dmw007 10,541 29 -6
36 Applespider 10,436 33 -3
37 twoodcc 10,361 44 +7
38 vniow 10,293 30 -8
39 arn 10,151 35 -4
40 rdowns 10,010 41 +1
41 dynamicv 9,937 38 -3
42 jelloshotsrule 9,774 34 -8
43 MacRumorUser 9,668 40 -3
44 clevin 9,412 --- ---
45 Lau 9,384 47 +2
46 katie ta achoo 9,359 39 -7
47 Chundles 9,243 45 -2
48 nagromme 9,083 46 -2
49 Mord 8,857 50 +1
50 jefhatfield 8,825 42 -8- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection January 4, 2009 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
- Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2008 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
Comments on the 6-Month Projections
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the so-called real world.
Changed members
Two members (the same number as last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
Two members are projected to fall off the Top 50 list (current rank):
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
Changes in rank
jsw's time away from the forums has cost him the #4 spot, letting Doctor Q return to the position he held a year ago.
At current post rates, Abstract will move into the Top 10 within 6 months while wdlove will finally drop out, after having been on the Top 10 since 2003.
PlaceofDis will move up past ~Shard~, Blue Velvet, and edesignuk.
Largest margin of victory: mad jew (#1) by 9,460 posts over Mr. Anderson (#2)
Highest projected rise in rank, by a wide margin: Eraserhead, up 21 slots!
Projections from 6 months ago
I predicted that psychofreak and twoodcc would join the Top 50, and they have.
I predicted that Chip NoVaMac and MacBandit would fall off the Top 50, and they have.
I predicted that the Top 10 would be:
I predicted that four members would have 20,000 (but under 30,000) posts: Mr. Anderson, mkrishnan, jsw, and Doctor Q. That was correct. I don't think this will change in the next 6 months.
Random trivia
It is projected to take 8,825 posts to make the Top 50. Currently, it takes 8,282 posts (my prediction was 8,159).
Jaffa Cake has the highest 4-digit post count. At his post rate from recent months, he should hit 10,000 posts about 4 days from now, on July 9.
In a post above, MacNut asked when the entire Top 50 will have 10,000 posts or more. At current posting rates, that will occur on October 6, 2011.
The Top 10 will each have 20,000 or more posts starting on the magical date of September 9, 2009, i.e., 9/9/9 in either American or European notation!
In 6 months, AlphaTech, one of the high posters early in the history of MacRumors, will finally fall off the Top 100. I estimate he'd be #103.
The number of members with over 10,000 posts grows from 31 (I predicted 34) to 40. mad jew is once again the only member projected to have over 30,000 posts, with nobody else close.
Excluded and inactive members
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Six inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50:
Total posts
By this projection, by January 1, 2009 there will have been 687,584 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members, 56,975 more than today.
The average Top 50 member will have 13,752 posts total, having made 1,139 posts in the 6 months between now and then (6.2 posts/day, almost one post down from the rate 6 months ago). Are the Top 50 running out of things to say?
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the so-called real world.
Changed members
Two members (the same number as last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
xUKHCx (#32)
clevin (#44)
Neither made the Top 25.
clevin (#44)
Neither made the Top 25.
Two members are projected to fall off the Top 50 list (current rank):
iMeowbot (#43)
iGAV (#49)
iGAV (#49)
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
iMeowbot -- missed staying on the list by 9 posts (0.047 posts/day, or 1 post every 3 weeks)
iGAV -- missed staying on the list by 127 posts (0.66 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.5 days)
skunk -- missed staying on the list by 251 posts (1.31 posts/day)
iGAV -- missed staying on the list by 127 posts (0.66 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.5 days)
skunk -- missed staying on the list by 251 posts (1.31 posts/day)
Changes in rank
jsw's time away from the forums has cost him the #4 spot, letting Doctor Q return to the position he held a year ago.
At current post rates, Abstract will move into the Top 10 within 6 months while wdlove will finally drop out, after having been on the Top 10 since 2003.
PlaceofDis will move up past ~Shard~, Blue Velvet, and edesignuk.
Largest margin of victory: mad jew (#1) by 9,460 posts over Mr. Anderson (#2)
Next largest:
Smallest margin of victory: Eidorian over wdlove by 5 postsjsw over PlaceofDis by 3,323 posts
edesignuk over Eidorian by 1,321 posts
yellow over bousozoku by 1,298 posts
edesignuk over Eidorian by 1,321 posts
yellow over bousozoku by 1,298 posts
Next largest:
Nermal over Jaffa Cake by 6 posts
IJ Reilly over psychofreak by 11 posts
robbieduncan over Sun Baked by 11 posts
IJ Reilly over psychofreak by 11 posts
robbieduncan over Sun Baked by 11 posts
Highest projected rise in rank, by a wide margin: Eraserhead, up 21 slots!
Next highest:
Highest projected loss in rank (while still on the Top 50): vniow and jelloshotsrule and jefhatfield, each down 8 slotsrobbieduncan, up 8 slots
MacNut, up 7 slots
twoodcc, up 7 slots
MacNut, up 7 slots
twoodcc, up 7 slots
Next highest: katie ta achoo, down 7 slots
Projected to hold their current rank:
mad jew (#1)
Mr. Anderson (#2)
mkrishnan (#3)
WildCowboy (#18)
CanadaRAM (#22)
Mitthrawnuruodo (#25)
Mr. Anderson (#2)
mkrishnan (#3)
WildCowboy (#18)
CanadaRAM (#22)
Mitthrawnuruodo (#25)
Projections from 6 months ago
I predicted that psychofreak and twoodcc would join the Top 50, and they have.
I predicted that Chip NoVaMac and MacBandit would fall off the Top 50, and they have.
I predicted that the Top 10 would be:
mad jew, Mr. Anderson, mkrishnan, Doctor Q, jsw, Blue Velvet, ~Shard~, Eidorianv, wdlove, edesignuk
The actual results are close, but the order is slightly different and PlaceofDis is there, not Eidorian:
mad jew, Mr. Anderson, mkrishnan, jsw, Doctor Q, ~Shard~, wdlove, Blue Velvet, edesignuk, PlaceofDis
I predicted that four members would have 20,000 (but under 30,000) posts: Mr. Anderson, mkrishnan, jsw, and Doctor Q. That was correct. I don't think this will change in the next 6 months.
Random trivia
It is projected to take 8,825 posts to make the Top 50. Currently, it takes 8,282 posts (my prediction was 8,159).
Jaffa Cake has the highest 4-digit post count. At his post rate from recent months, he should hit 10,000 posts about 4 days from now, on July 9.
In a post above, MacNut asked when the entire Top 50 will have 10,000 posts or more. At current posting rates, that will occur on October 6, 2011.
The Top 10 will each have 20,000 or more posts starting on the magical date of September 9, 2009, i.e., 9/9/9 in either American or European notation!
In 6 months, AlphaTech, one of the high posters early in the history of MacRumors, will finally fall off the Top 100. I estimate he'd be #103.
The number of members with over 10,000 posts grows from 31 (I predicted 34) to 40. mad jew is once again the only member projected to have over 30,000 posts, with nobody else close.
Excluded and inactive members
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Six inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50:
wdlove (#12)
bousozoku (#17)
eyelikeart (#26)
jefhatfield (#50)
bousozoku (#17)
eyelikeart (#26)
jefhatfield (#50)
Total posts
By this projection, by January 1, 2009 there will have been 687,584 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members, 56,975 more than today.
The average Top 50 member will have 13,752 posts total, having made 1,139 posts in the 6 months between now and then (6.2 posts/day, almost one post down from the rate 6 months ago). Are the Top 50 running out of things to say?
Code:
3 mkrishnan 22,887 3 0
4 Doctor Q 22,831 5 +1Can everyone chip in to please ask Doctor Q 57 unexpected questions in this thread, so that he can displace me?
I'd like to note that this post, far from being unexpected, is exactly the sort of drivel for which I am well known and reputed, and therefore falls cleanly within my projected 22,887 posts.
I'd like to note that this post, far from being unexpected, is exactly the sort of drivel for which I am well known and reputed, and therefore falls cleanly within my projected 22,887 posts.
And this is precisely the sort of reply to your sort of drivel which moved me up 13 slots.
Since I am not on the list I don't know whether to be relieved or depressed
Although I did just pass 3,000 posts
Woof, Woof - Dawg
Although I did just pass 3,000 posts
Woof, Woof - Dawg
and so should you! 13 slots!!
that is just awesome. epic.
and thanks for the projections Doctor Q. always interesting to see where we might. or rather probably, end up.
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2008
Columns:
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2008
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
1 Eidorian 16.43 16 +15 2 +1
2 mad jew 15.55 1 -1 1 -1
3 bartelby 14.08 17 +14 7 +4
4 mkrishnan 12.73 3 -1 3 -1
5 MacNut 12.72 28 +23 12 +7
6 PlaceofDis 12.66 10 +4 15 +9
7 Eraserhead 12.62 48 +41 32 +25
8 iBlue 12.12 21 +13 10 +2
9 xUKHCx 11.98 --- --- 33 +24
10 Abstract 11.45 11 +1 25 +15
11 Blue Velvet 11.36 8 -3 4 -7
12 devilot 11.32 12 0 6 -6
13 clevin 11.00 --- --- 19 +6
14 Doctor Q 10.96 5 -9 11 -3
15 jsw 9.69 4 -11 8 -7
16 robbieduncan 9.67 31 +15 29 +13
17 WildCowboy 9.60 18 +1 9 -8
18 twoodcc 9.48 44 +26 16 -2
19 raggedjimmi 8.77 19 0 22 +3
20 Jaffa Cake 8.75 32 +12 17 -3
21 IJ Reilly 8.16 36 +15 28 +7
22 dynamicv 8.11 38 +16 14 -8
23 rdowns 7.80 41 +18 18 -5
24 edesignuk 7.63 9 -15 37 +13
25 Sesshi 7.57 --- --- 24 -1
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
26 CanadaRAM 7.42 22 -4 23 -3
27 yellow 7.18 14 -13 27 0
28 ~Shard~ 6.60 6 -22 21 -7
29 bigandy 6.19 --- --- --- ---
30 iGary 6.03 13 -17 45 +15
31 Peace 5.97 --- --- 40 +9
32 MacRumorUser 5.96 40 +8 26 -6
33 sushi 5.81 --- --- --- ---
34 Mitthrawnuruodo 5.57 25 -9 31 -3
35 Lau 5.48 47 +12 35 0
36 EricNau 5.30 --- --- 34 -2
37 LimeiBook86 5.03 --- --- 50 +13
38 emw 5.02 26 -12 36 -2
39 Sun Baked 4.79 23 -16 44 +5
40 dcv 4.65 --- --- 20 -20
41 skunk 4.63 --- --- 49 +8
42 Chundles 4.29 45 +3 42 0
43 Applespider 4.18 33 -10 41 -2
44 arn 4.03 35 -9 --- ---
45 katie ta achoo 3.99 39 -6 38 -7
46 Mord 3.91 50 +4 47 +1
47 zap2 3.91 --- --- 48 +1
48 dmw007 3.72 29 -19 30 -18
49 wrldwzrd89 3.70 --- --- --- ---
50 Nermal 3.58 27 -23 --- ---- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
- Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2008, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
- Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2008, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50. NEW MEASUREMENT!
- Delta EOT = change in rank from projection 6 months ago to projection now. NEW MEASUREMENT!
Comments on the End of Time Projections
New measurements
I've added two new columns to my usual chart: Last EOT and Delta EOT. The new columns compare projected End of Time ranks with the End of Time ranks from last time (6 months ago). This lets us observe how the End of Time list has changed over time. See "Changes in the Top 10 End of Time" below.
As before, the Cur Rank and Delta Rank compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks so we can see what happens between now and the end of time.
At the top
Eidorian has attained the #1 spot! He was in second place in the End of Time projection 6 months ago. Most surprising is that he achieved this while posting less than before. Although Eidorian's post rate has dropped, mad jew's rate has dropped more, as it has been doing for some time.
This is part of a general trend of slowed post rates among a number of top posters. See graph in next post.
The "peloton" (the main group among the Top 15) maintains 11 to 13 posts/day, while three members stand above, Eidorian with a weighted post rate of 16.43 posts/day, mad jew with 15.55 posts/day, and bartelby with 14.08 posts/day. Fourteen members make at least 10 posts per day by weighted average.
End of Time predictions depend heavily on the weighting formula, as made clear by this comparison:
Based on the overall post rate since each member joined MacRumors (the rate shown in their user profile), mad jew holds a commanding lead, but we know that assessment is skewed by his higher past post rate. Based only on the last 6 months, bartelby would prevail from his 1 post edge over Eidorian in recent months. The weighted average depends on all of these factors and, if it works as intended, reflects the most likely long-term result.
The other names in the Top 10 are familiar, although MacNut and Eraserhead are not yet in the current Top 25. End of Time rankings depend only on post rate over time, not on the current number of posts.
It takes 3.58 posts per day to make the End of Time Top 50. Last time (January 2008) it was harder to make the list, with a 4.45 post/day minimum.
psychofreak, with a weighted post rate of 11.81, would have been number 10 on the End of Time Top 50 if he hadn't recently retired from the forums. dcv's position is probably an overestimate because she's been absent from the forums for most of the last 6 months and had barely enough posts in 6 months to qualify for inclusion. Applespider has also been scarce.
Leaders and followers
Here we measure post rate leads by either posts per day or by percentages.
Biggest lead by post rate: mad jew over bartelby by 1.48 weighted posts per day
Biggest lead by percentage of weighted post rate:
Closest race by post rate: mkrishnan over MacNut by 0.0057 weighted posts per day (1 post every 176 days)
Closest race by percentage (much closer than the races 6 months ago): mkrishnan over MacNut by 0.0446%
Just missed the Top 50: kretzy, by 0.071 posts/day, or one post every 2 weeks.
Changed members
As usual, the End of Time Top 50 is very different from today's Top 50, because shorter-term members with high post rates show up among the top ranks. It is closer to the End of Time Top 50 from 6 months ago.
Twelve members not in the current Top 50 are projected to eventually join the Top Posters list:
Twelve members are projected to fall off the current Top 50 list (in descending order by weighted post rate):
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: Eraserhead, up 41 slots, based on a post rate that has tripled since the previous measurement period
Highest projected loss in rank: Nermal, dropping 23 slots
Two members are projected to retain their current rank:
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time prediction from 6 months ago with the End of Time prediction now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 5 members added:
Highest projected rise in rank: Eraserhead, up 25 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: dcv, down 20 slots
The "round number" award goes to dcv, whose rank is projected to be double from slot #20 to slot #40.
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, zap2 has the lowest current post count (5,859).
The size of the Initial Vowel group is projected to drop from 12 to 11:
arn replaces mpw in the MATLOC members (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club):
Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.6 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity. That rate is up 12.5% since the extrapolation from 6 months ago, even though the post rates of a few members have dropped.
New measurements
I've added two new columns to my usual chart: Last EOT and Delta EOT. The new columns compare projected End of Time ranks with the End of Time ranks from last time (6 months ago). This lets us observe how the End of Time list has changed over time. See "Changes in the Top 10 End of Time" below.
As before, the Cur Rank and Delta Rank compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks so we can see what happens between now and the end of time.
At the top
Eidorian has attained the #1 spot! He was in second place in the End of Time projection 6 months ago. Most surprising is that he achieved this while posting less than before. Although Eidorian's post rate has dropped, mad jew's rate has dropped more, as it has been doing for some time.
This is part of a general trend of slowed post rates among a number of top posters. See graph in next post.
The "peloton" (the main group among the Top 15) maintains 11 to 13 posts/day, while three members stand above, Eidorian with a weighted post rate of 16.43 posts/day, mad jew with 15.55 posts/day, and bartelby with 14.08 posts/day. Fourteen members make at least 10 posts per day by weighted average.
End of Time predictions depend heavily on the weighting formula, as made clear by this comparison:
Code:
Name overall recent weighted
---------- ------- ------ --------
Eidorian 11.8 13.5 16.4
mad jew 20.7 4.7 15.6
bartelby 8.9 14.6 14.1The other names in the Top 10 are familiar, although MacNut and Eraserhead are not yet in the current Top 25. End of Time rankings depend only on post rate over time, not on the current number of posts.
It takes 3.58 posts per day to make the End of Time Top 50. Last time (January 2008) it was harder to make the list, with a 4.45 post/day minimum.
psychofreak, with a weighted post rate of 11.81, would have been number 10 on the End of Time Top 50 if he hadn't recently retired from the forums. dcv's position is probably an overestimate because she's been absent from the forums for most of the last 6 months and had barely enough posts in 6 months to qualify for inclusion. Applespider has also been scarce.
Leaders and followers
Here we measure post rate leads by either posts per day or by percentages.
Biggest lead by post rate: mad jew over bartelby by 1.48 weighted posts per day
Next biggest:
bartelby over mkrishnan by 1.35 weighted posts per day
Doctor Q over jsw by 1.27 weighted posts per day
All others are leads of less than one weighted post per day.Doctor Q over jsw by 1.27 weighted posts per day
Biggest lead by percentage of weighted post rate:
Next biggest: Doctor Q over jsw by 13.1%
bartelby over mkrishnan by 10.6%
mad jew over bartelby by 10.5%
mad jew over bartelby by 10.5%
Closest race by post rate: mkrishnan over MacNut by 0.0057 weighted posts per day (1 post every 176 days)
Next closest:
Mord over zap2 by 0.0084 weighted posts per day (1 post every 119 days)
LimeiBook86 over emw by 0.0100 weighted posts per day (1 post every 100 days)
LimeiBook86 over emw by 0.0100 weighted posts per day (1 post every 100 days)
Closest race by percentage (much closer than the races 6 months ago): mkrishnan over MacNut by 0.0446%
Next closest:
LimeiBook86 over emw by 0.1986%
jsw over robbieduncan by 0.2045%
Mord over zap2 by 0.2149%
Peace over MacRumorUser by 0.2523%
raggedjimmi over Jaffa Cake by 0.2792%
jsw over robbieduncan by 0.2045%
Mord over zap2 by 0.2149%
Peace over MacRumorUser by 0.2523%
raggedjimmi over Jaffa Cake by 0.2792%
Just missed the Top 50: kretzy, by 0.071 posts/day, or one post every 2 weeks.
Changed members
As usual, the End of Time Top 50 is very different from today's Top 50, because shorter-term members with high post rates show up among the top ranks. It is closer to the End of Time Top 50 from 6 months ago.
Twelve members not in the current Top 50 are projected to eventually join the Top Posters list:
xUKHCx (#9)
clevin (#13)
Sesshi (#25)
bigandy (#29)
Peace (#31)
sushi (#33)
EricNau (#36)
LimeiBook86 (#37)
dcv (#40)
skunk (#41)
zap2 (#47)
wrldwzrd89 (#49)
clevin (#13)
Sesshi (#25)
bigandy (#29)
Peace (#31)
sushi (#33)
EricNau (#36)
LimeiBook86 (#37)
dcv (#40)
skunk (#41)
zap2 (#47)
wrldwzrd89 (#49)
Twelve members are projected to fall off the current Top 50 list (in descending order by weighted post rate):
psychofreak
nagromme
iGAV
Mr. Anderson
Rower_CPU
iMeowbot
jefhatfield
jelloshotsrule
vniow
eyelikeart
bousozoku
wdlove
nagromme
iGAV
Mr. Anderson
Rower_CPU
iMeowbot
jefhatfield
jelloshotsrule
vniow
eyelikeart
bousozoku
wdlove
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: Eraserhead, up 41 slots, based on a post rate that has tripled since the previous measurement period
Next highest (those up 20 or more slots):
twoodcc, up 26 slots
MacNut, up 23 slots
MacNut, up 23 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: Nermal, dropping 23 slots
Next highest:
~Shard~, down 22 slots
Two members are projected to retain their current rank:
devilot (#12)
raggedjimmi (#19)
raggedjimmi (#19)
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time prediction from 6 months ago with the End of Time prediction now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 5 members added:
bigandy (#29)
sushi (#33)
arn (#45) - he's picked up his pace!
wrldwzrd89 (#49)
Nermal (#50)
and 5 members dropped:sushi (#33)
arn (#45) - he's picked up his pace!
wrldwzrd89 (#49)
Nermal (#50)
psychofreak
kretzy
mpw
balamw
mattscott306
kretzy
mpw
balamw
mattscott306
Highest projected rise in rank: Eraserhead, up 25 slots
Next highest:
twoodcc, up 26 slots
xUKHCx, up 24 slots
Abstract and iGary, each up 15
robbieduncan and edesignuk and LimeiBook86, each up 13
xUKHCx, up 24 slots
Abstract and iGary, each up 15
robbieduncan and edesignuk and LimeiBook86, each up 13
Highest projected loss in rank: dcv, down 20 slots
Next highest:
dmw007, down 18 slots
The "round number" award goes to dcv, whose rank is projected to be double from slot #20 to slot #40.
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
yellow (#27)
Lau (#35)
Chundles (#42)
Lau (#35)
Chundles (#42)
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, zap2 has the lowest current post count (5,859).
The size of the Initial Vowel group is projected to drop from 12 to 11:
Eidorian, Eraserhead, iBlue, Abstract, IJ Reilly, edesignuk, iGary, EricNau, emw, Applespider, arn
arn replaces mpw in the MATLOC members (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club):
jsw, Lau, emw, dcv, arn
The percentage of women in the End of Time Top 50 once again holds steady at 16%.
Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.6 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity. That rate is up 12.5% since the extrapolation from 6 months ago, even though the post rates of a few members have dropped.
Doctor Q, you really need to get out more!
What great work! I don't know how you do it!
Woof, Woof - Dawg
What great work! I don't know how you do it!
Woof, Woof - Dawg
Changing post rates
This chart shows the 10 members with the highest post rates for the 6 months from July 2007 to January 2008, in order, and their post rates before and after that time period.
As you can see, Eidorian and a few other of the highest posters actually slowed down in the 6 months since, from January 2008 to July 2008. Meanwhile, those following them sped up a bit, making the range of rates much smaller and the contests closer.
This may be a result of the particular members involved and their habits and forum activity, or it may show some kind of "averaging out" effect for which I don't have an explanation. Another possibility is that there are seasonal variations in post rates between the 1st and 2nd half of each year, a pattern I hadn't thought to study. Theories are welcome.
This chart shows the 10 members with the highest post rates for the 6 months from July 2007 to January 2008, in order, and their post rates before and after that time period.
As you can see, Eidorian and a few other of the highest posters actually slowed down in the 6 months since, from January 2008 to July 2008. Meanwhile, those following them sped up a bit, making the range of rates much smaller and the contests closer.
This may be a result of the particular members involved and their habits and forum activity, or it may show some kind of "averaging out" effect for which I don't have an explanation. Another possibility is that there are seasonal variations in post rates between the 1st and 2nd half of each year, a pattern I hadn't thought to study. Theories are welcome.
Attachments
O RLY? Damn my recent hiatus; well I guess I'll need to beat off arn over the next 6months, and although it'll be longer I dream of beating off jsw too.
The trick is to avoid over-imbibing on Independence Day, so I can think clearly the next day.
This year I had two problems, other than the total amount of time this always takes:
1. I took psychofreak out of all but one chart but mistakenly left him in one. I ended up with rankings that were off by one until I figured out what had gone wrong. I had to revert and do some number crunching over again.
2. Excel 2008. They must have taken every Excel 2004 feature, used focus groups to study which tweaks would make it better and which would make it slower and less intuitive, then implemented the latter!
I hope you guys can distinguish the lines in the graph. I can't tell all of those colors apart.
2. Excel 2008. They must have taken every Excel 2004 feature, used focus groups to study which tweaks would make it better and which would make it slower and less intuitive, then implemented the latter!
Agreed! I wish I had never upgraded!
Gee mpw, don't be such a post whore
Woof, Woof - Dawg
Alas, I used to be on this list (at last the end of time one). But fortunately, I'm getting busier, which means more MacRumors procrastinating! Perhaps I'll grace these pages again one day.
Hmm...
Last months job hunting seems to have made an impact on my posting here (and thus I didn't manage to stay completely invisible on the last couple of these extrapolations, as I've done by maintaining fairly consistent behaviour in the past).
Probably gonna be a bit less active when I'm starting in my new job in a couple of weeks, but for now I'm (mostly) around...
Goal: Being invisible again for the January 2009 extrapolations...
Last months job hunting seems to have made an impact on my posting here (and thus I didn't manage to stay completely invisible on the last couple of these extrapolations, as I've done by maintaining fairly consistent behaviour in the past
). Probably gonna be a bit less active when I'm starting in my new job in a couple of weeks, but for now I'm (mostly) around...
Goal: Being invisible again for the January 2009 extrapolations...
So am I, 3400 posts in 6 months, damn that's a lot. Now my degree is finished (and I'm off travelling) it'll slow down a lot for the next 6 months though.
Which, from memory and previous polls, seemed to be an overall stat for the forum as a whole. Doing our bit to ensure that the place hasn't yet turned entirely into a boy's bedroom, although I can see that stack of magazines under rdown's bed from here.
I keep plugging on in a spasmodic kind of way, cautious of overkill and tied down with stuffs at the mo.