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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2009

leekohler said:
Isn't jefhatfield just using a different name now? I could be wrong, but I thought that was the case.
Click to expand...

Hi Lee,

I am Jefhatfield but along the line changed to 63dot. Jef made far more posts on far more subjects and 63dot has been busy with school and work. But so people don't think I died, I will try and properly be called by my real name in cyberspace.

Jef Hatfield (early Macrumors member), or just jefhatfield, or just that angry Mac fanboy ;)
 
63dot said:
Hi Lee,

I am Jefhatfield but along the line changed to 63dot. Jef made far more posts on far more subjects and 63dot has been busy with school and work. But so people don't think I died, I will try and properly be called by my real name in cyberspace.

Jef Hatfield (early Macrumors member), or just jefhatfield, or just that angry Mac fanboy ;)
Click to expand...

I know that now. Sorry I forgot- I still love you...I swear- really. Just because I can't remember your name means nothing... :D
 
leekohler said:
I know that now. Sorry I forgot- I still love you...I swear- really. Just because I can't remember your name means nothing... :D
Click to expand...

Thank you. I asked Dr. Q to change me back to Jefhatfield so there's no more confusion. I think many thought I was banned, though certain comments in the early days from many of us in 2001 especially could have got the whole lot of us banned. :)

Things are far more friendlier these days, and most recently I reverted back to my nasty Jefhatfield self and insulted another member, but I apoligized. We are much bigger now so instead of an intimate back and forth, with four letter words, it's more safe and polite as it should be.
 
shows that i've been busy in the real life and not around here more. i've missed this place.
 
What I find interesting is how long some forum members can remain on the list without posting at all, wdlove, for instance.

I usually like being ignored in any mention of me in any breakdown or analysis, something I've sometimes been adept at so far by consistently sneaking up the rankings and taking small backwards steps here and there on occasion. But I've failed this time around, giving Q a reason to remark on some numerical aspect of my posting. I shall endeavour to do better next time.

p.s. Buddy list = 171 (soon to be 175 or so)
Forums often blocked in Spy (depending on mood) = 1 (PRSI)
 
Blue Velvet said:
p.s. Buddy list = 171 (soon to be 175 or so)
Forums often blocked in Spy (depending on mood) = 1 (PRSI)
Click to expand...

so you can ignore stuff then, as a mod?


I'm ignoring 33 areas at the mo.
75 buddies including some no longer active members
1 on the ignore list
 
Forgot to mention one other numerical fact about my forum membership...

Today is exactly five years to the very day since I signed up here to ask about gigabit speed and cat5e network cables. Some familiar American faces who replied in my thread are still around today, which begs the question:

On the 4th of July, why were they hanging around on an internet board instead of munching on wings, coleslaw and knocking back a couple of beers? ;)

Happy Independence Day to you all. :)
 
bartelby said:
I'm ignoring 33 areas at the mo.
75 buddies including some no longer active members
1 on the ignore list
Click to expand...

I'm ignoring 36 forums. Perhaps I should be "spreading my seed" around a bit more. I'm sure the iPhone forum needs non-coupon related love. :) How about the oft-ignored Page 2?



techlover828 said:
what happened to mad jew?
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Probably a lot of non-secular, orthodox jewish stuff, I'm sure. ;)


Anyway, it's hard to say exactly what's up with him in Adelaide, because nobody really knows except him and perhaps his friends and family.
 
Blue Velvet said:
On the 4th of July, why were they hanging around on an internet board instead of munching on wings, coleslaw and knocking back a couple of beers? ;)

Happy Independence Day to you all. :)
Click to expand...

It's still 10:30am - I'll be doing all of the above later in the afternoon. And why thank you, BV! :)
 
Nice to see my lack of posting didn't drop me too far.:p

Ok off to the beach I go to celebrate the 4th.:cool:
 
Doctor Q said:
The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. Last time the peak was the 6-to-7 year range (my peer group), while this time it's the 4-to-5 year range.
Click to expand...
Interesting shift.

Guess the newer members are posting more often.

Out with the old and in with the new. :)
 
These are very interesting figures, I just have to post aprox. 6,000 more times to get on the list. Somehow, I don't figure that happening :p

I only ignore 2 forums, one being PRSI. And have a couple buddies and one on the ignore :)
 
6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2009

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2010     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,204    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       27,891    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        25,081    3      0
  4   Abstract        23,657    6     +2
  5   Eidorian        23,370    7     +2
  6   jsw             22,582    5     -1
  7   Mr. Anderson    22,487    4     -3
  8   Tallest Skil    21,399   20    +12
  9   Blue Velvet     21,274    8     -1
 10   bartelby        20,800   11     +1
 11   edesignuk       19,659    9     -2
 12   iGary           19,584   12      0
 13   ~Shard~         18,531   10     -3
 14   PlaceofDis      18,216   13     -1
 15   iBlue           17,264   16     +1    
 16   robbieduncan    16,580   19     +3    
 17   wdlove          16,567   14     -3    
 18   raggedjimmi     16,369   17     -1    
 19   rdowns          16,197   23     +4    
 20   devilot         15,587   15     -5    
 21   yellow          15,495   18     -3    
 22   WildCowboy      15,089   21     -1    
 23   Jaffa Cake      14,797   26     +3    
 24   Sun Baked       14,583   24      0    
 25   MacNut          14,177   25      0
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2010     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   jessica.        14,162   37    +11    
 27   bousozoku       13,998   22     -5    
 28   IJ Reilly       13,519   28      0    
 29   alphaod         13,234   39    +10    
 30   sushi           13,151   33     +3    
 31   Mitthrawnuruodo 12,803   27     -4    
 32   twoodcc         12,608   34     +2    
 33   CanadaRAM       12,365   29     -4    
 34   Nermal          12,282   31     -3    
 35   eyelikeart      11,896   30     -5    
 36   xUKHCx          11,640   41     +5    
 37   Applespider     11,417   36     -1    
 38   dukebound85     11,316  ---    ---
 39   Rower_CPU       11,230   32     -7    
 40   emw             11,057   35     -5    
 41   leekohler       10,945  ---    ---
 42   Lau             10,930   40     -2    
 43   dmw007          10,637   38     -5    
 44   iJohnHenry      10,343  ---    ---
 45   vniow           10,281   42     -3    
 46   Chundles        10,261   45     -1    
 47   Queso           10,213   44     -3    
 48   arn             10,101   43     -5    
 49   EricNau          9,901   48     -1    
 50   Eraserhead       9,844   49     -1
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection January 4, 2010 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2009 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months. That's the primary purpose of this thread: to make these projections, just for fun, and see how they come out.

The results are only estimates because members change their posting rates, and sometimes new members appear who I hadn't realized were approaching the Top 50.

Changed members

Three members (last time it was 5) are projected to join the Top 50, none in the Top 25:
dukebound85 (#38)
leekohler (#41)
iJohnHenry (#44)
​

Three members are projected to fall out of the Top 50:
jelloshotsrule (currently #46)
nagromme (currently #47)
skunk (currently #50)
​

Member closest to but not in the Top 50:

skunk, missing staying in the Top 50 by 43 posts (0.41 posts/day, or 1 post every 2.4 days)

Next closest, neither in the current Top 50:
bigandy -- by 100 posts (0.55 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.8 days)
wrldwzrd89 -- by 105 posts (0.58 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.7 days)
​
No other members were within 200 posts of the Top 50.
​

Changes in rank

In these projections, mad jew, mkrishnan, and Doctor Q retain the top 3 spots, but Abstract (projected #4) and Eidorian (projected #5) pass jsw (dropping from #5 to #6) and Mr. Anderson (dropping from #4 to #7).

Tallest Skil leaps from #20 into the Top 10, landing at #8.

Blue Velvet drops slightly, from #8 to #9. bartelby joins the Top 10 (up from #11 to #10) at the expense of edesignuk, who drops from #9 to #11.

Current Top 10 member ~Shard~ is projected to drop to #13.

Largest margin of victory: mad jew (#1) over mkrishnan (#2) by 4,313 posts (down from 5,803 in the projections from 6-months ago)
Next largest:
mkrishnan over Doctor Q by 2,810 posts (3,194 last time)
Doctor Q over Abstract by 1,423 posts
bartelby over edesignuk by 1,141 posts
Mr. Anderson over Tallest Skil by 1,088 posts
iGary over ~Shard~ by 1,053 posts
​
No other margin is more than 1,000.
​

Smallest margin of victory: robbieduncan over wdlove by 13 posts
Next smallest:
MacNut over jessica. by 14 posts
leekohler over Lau by 15 posts

The race for smallest margin of victory produced much closer results in the projections 6 months ago. Compared to 6 months ago, these are overwhelming victories. :)
​

Highest projected rise in rank: Tallest Skil, up 12 slots
Next highest:
jessica., up 11 slots
alphaod, up 10 slots
​
No other increases were in double digits.
​

Highest projected loss in rank (while still in the Top 50): Rower_CPU, down 7 slots
Next highest: a six-way tie, each dropping 5 slots:
devilot, bousozoku, eyelikeart, emw, dmw007, arn
​
A few members are projected to hold their current rank:
mad jew (#1 since the July 2007 rankings)
mkrishnan (#2)
Doctor Q (#3)
iGary (#12)
Sun Baked (#24)
MacNut (#25)
IJ Reilly (#28)​

Excluded and inactive members

No banned or retired members are projected to be in the Top 50. The "bot" accounts don't count; otherwise, MacBytes would rank #20 with 15,837 posts by January.

Remarkably, 20% of the Top 50 spots (10 out of 50) are held by inactive or mostly inactive members:
mad jew (#1)
Mr. Anderson (#7)
wdlove (#17)
devilot (#20)
bousozoku (#27)
eyelikeart (#35)
Rower_CPU (#39)
emw (#40)
dmw007 (#43)
vniow (#45)
​

Trivia

By July 1, 2009 there will have been 779,576 total posts by the Top 50 members, 62,908 more posts than those 50 members have today. That's a signifcant increase (by 19%) over the comparable figure (52,736) in the projections 6 months ago. Do they really have 62,908 important things to say?

The average Top 50 member will have 15,592 posts total, having made 1,258 posts in the 6 months between now and next January. That's 7.0 posts/day, a statistic which had previously been dropping to as low as 5.8 posts/day. Perhaps, like the stock market, Top 50 posting will pick up steam again, although I've never been sure if the stock market and forum posting are really powered by steam. ;)

For the first time, it takes at least 20,000 posts to make the Top 10.

It is projected to take 9,844 posts to make the Top 50. That's 767 more than the 9,077 posts it currently requires. This is almost certainly the last projection to say that members can reach the Top 50 without at least 10,000 posts. For this round, EricNau (9,901 posts) and Eraserhead (9,844 posts) make the list.

Useless Trivia

The member in slot 42 is hereby declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. This time the honor goes to Lau.

Consecutive members with user names of the same length:
Doctor Q and Abstract and Eidorian (slots #3-4-5, length 8)
Mr. Anderson and Tallest Skil (slots #7-8, length 12)
WildCowboy and Jaffa Cake (slots #22-23, length 10)
bousozoku and IJ Reilly (slots #27-28, length 9)
Applespider and dukebound85 (slots #37-38, length 11)

Why does every one of these runs have a unique length? Good karma!

Why do they involve slots #7, #27, and #37, but not #17 or #47? Bad karma!
​

Largest difference in length of user name in consecutive spots:
sushi to Mitthrawnuruodo (increase of 10)
​

Only two members have user names whose length is divisible by their Top 50 slot number:
mad jew (7 divisible by 1)
Abstract (8 divisible by 4)

This is always true for the top poster so Abstract gets more credit for it.
​

Ten members achieved the reverse, having their slot number divisible by the length of their user name:
jsw (6/3), iBlue (15/5), bousozoku (27/9), sushi (30/5), xUKHCx (36/6), Lau (42/3), vniow (45/5), arn (48/3), EricNau (49/7), Eraserhead (50/5)

To those who didn't achieve this state of zen, better luck next time!​

Extremely Useless Trivia

Member whose ratio of slot number to user name length is closest to pi:
rdowns (19/6 = 3.17)​
 
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