Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2009
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Hey Doctor Q,
Where does Dukestreet fall into the equation?, let's say before 2004 or 2005 when I think he became changed to Mr. Anderson?
Dukestreet was one of the most prolific posters in the first several years of Macrumors. (BTW, for those who don't go back that far, he became Mr. Anderson). I don't know if Dukestreet and Mr. Anderson's posts are combined, but if they were, I think he may be the #1 spot of all time.
Where does Dukestreet fall into the equation?, let's say before 2004 or 2005 when I think he became changed to Mr. Anderson?
Dukestreet was one of the most prolific posters in the first several years of Macrumors. (BTW, for those who don't go back that far, he became Mr. Anderson). I don't know if Dukestreet and Mr. Anderson's posts are combined, but if they were, I think he may be the #1 spot of all time.
I believe it was a straightforward name change rather than a new account.
I'm pretty sure I've maintained about 2 posts/day for most of my times of membership here...and stand doomed to remain well out of the rankings forever
Thanks for taking the time to do this once again, Doc.
I look forward to seeing how I'll be faring at the End Of Time™.
I look forward to seeing how I'll be faring at the End Of Time™.
It was "dukestreet" in lowercase, and OutThere is correct about the name change. At the time, it caused a flurry of other requests to change names, which led to the current policy that discourages them. You can confirm his name change by looking at this ancient post and the quote by blakespot two posts below it.
I will make a rash prediction that you won't make the list this time.Thanks for taking the time to do this once again, Doc.
I look forward to seeing how I'll be faring at the End Of Time™.
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2009
Columns:
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2009
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
1 Tallest Skil 23.1 20 +19 18 +17
2 alphaod 19.3 39 +37 1 -1
3 Eidorian 16.7 7 +4 2 -1
4 iJohnHenry 15.6 --- --- 3 -1
5 jessica. 14.1 37 +32 13 +8
6 Abstract 14.0 6 0 6 0
7 bartelby 14.0 11 +4 5 -2
8 mkrishnan 12.2 2 -6 4 -4
9 rdowns 12.0 23 +14 9 0
10 robbieduncan 11.2 19 +9 7 -3
11 iBlue 10.4 16 +5 15 +4
12 sushi 10.4 33 +21 11 -1
13 DoFoT9 9.7 --- --- --- ---
14 Blue Velvet 9.4 8 -6 8 -6
15 dukebound85 9.3 --- --- 38 +23
16 Jaffa Cake 8.8 26 +10 21 +5
17 leekohler 8.7 --- --- 42 +25
18 iGary 8.5 12 -6 23 +5
19 Doctor Q 8.4 3 -16 20 +1
20 xUKHCx 8.3 41 +21 16 -4
21 SFStateStudent 8.2 --- --- --- ---
22 IJ Reilly 8.0 28 +6 17 -5
23 raggedjimmi 7.9 17 -6 19 -4
24 MacNut 7.9 25 +1 10 -14
25 twoodcc 7.8 34 +9 26 +1
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
26 Consultant 7.6 --- --- --- ---
27 Teh Don Ditty 7.3 --- --- 22 -5
28 r.j.s 6.8 --- --- --- ---
29 edesignuk 6.6 9 -20 28 -1
30 bigandy 6.5 --- --- 27 -3
31 PlaceofDis 6.0 13 -18 14 -17
32 clevin 5.8 --- --- 25 -7
33 CalBoy 5.6 --- --- 12 -21
34 ChrisA 5.6 --- --- 37 +3
35 flopticalcube 5.4 --- --- 48 +13
36 WildCowboy 5.4 21 -15 32 -4
37 Sun Baked 5.3 24 -13 36 -1
38 Eraserhead 5.0 49 +11 29 -9
39 Lau 4.7 40 +1 33 -6
40 EricNau 4.5 48 +8 35 -5
41 jsw 4.5 5 -36 31 -10
42 yg17 4.3 --- --- --- ---
43 Peace 4.2 --- --- --- ---
44 skunk 4.0 50 +6 41 -3
45 wrldwzrd89 4.0 --- --- 45 0
46 Queso 3.7 44 -2 34 -12
47 yellow 3.6 18 -29 46 -1
48 LimeiBook86 3.5 --- --- 43 -5
49 Mitthrawnuruodo 3.4 27 -22 44 -5
50 MacDawg 3.4 --- --- --- ---- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
- Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2009, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
- Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2009, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
- Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
Comments on the End of Time Projections
The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever.
This is the third time that I've included the Last EOT and Delta EOT columns, to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. Therefore, it's now an official tradition.
This chart is where the real fun happens, as long-time regulars fall by the wayside and newcomers step into the limelight.
At the top
alphaod has lost the projected #1 End of Time title to Tallest Skil, who isn't even in the current Top 10 but is making more than 23 posts per day at the weighted rate. His recent post rate has been 37.4 posts/day; his overall post rate since joining is 13.8 posts/day.
alphaod's weighted rate has dropped, from 23.5 posts/day to 19.3 posts/day, but he's still ahead of Eidorian, whose rate has actually increased, from 15.9 posts/day to 16.7 posts/day.
iJohnHenry's post rate has also edged up, from 13.5 posts/day to 15.6 posts/day, so alphaod, Eidorian, and iJohnHenry, who were #1-2-3 in the End-of-Time projections last time, are now #2-3-4 behind Tallest Skil.
jessica., Abstract, and bartelby have weighted post rates in the 14-15 range.
Abstract's lead over bartelby is very very thin: 0.044 posts/day, or 1 post every 3 weeks.
With weighted post rates of 11 to 13, mkrishnan, rdowns, and robbieduncan complete the Top 10.
Just below the Top 10 are iBlue and sushi, separated by something like 6000 miles in the real world but only 0.052 posts/day at MacRumors. That's 1 post every 19 days.
Leaders and followers
Measuring leads by absolute weighted post rate, we again find that the widest disparity is at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: Tallest Skil (#1) over alphaod (#2) by 3.85 weighted posts per day
Closest post rate finish: skunk over wrldwzrd89 by 0.014 weighted posts per day (1 post every 72 days).
Just missed the Top 50: Chundles, by 0.020 posts/day, or one post every 50 days. Applespider and ~Shard~ would have been next in line.
Changed members
In my January projections there were 19 members not in the Top 50 but projected to move into the Top 50 eventually. This time it's 18. Most of them are the same as last time, showing good consistency, but also reinforcing the fact that "eventually" may take a while to arrive.
They displace these 18 members (current rank), who are projected to fall off the Top 50 list, also eventually:
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: alphaod, up 37 slots, even though his weighted post rate has actually dropped 18%. I think this is a sign that my weighting formula did not give good results last time with insufficient data. New members with high post rates aren't "trusted" to keep it up, but sometimes they do.
Highest projected loss in rank: jsw, down 36 slots, even though his overall long-term post rate has dropped by only about 1 post/day.
Only Abstract is projected to retain his current rank: #6.
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 7 new members, none in the Top 10:
Highest projected rise in rank: leekohler, up 25 slots into the Top 25
Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End-of-Time Top 50: CalBoy, down 21 slots and out of the Top 25
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (25,853) and SFStateStudent has the fewest (5,560).
Six months ago, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) has 11 members in the Top 50. Now they are down to 10 (Applespider having dropped out):
The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) still consists of jsw and Lau unless you take "letter" to mean only alphabetics, not any character at all, in which case r.j.s joins the club.
The number of Top 50 End-of-Time members whose user names begin with ~ has dropped by a huge percentage, namely from 1 to 0.
The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 has dropped from one post every 3.6 minutes to one post every 3.5 minutes, but since that's 24 hours a day for the rest of eternity, arn is still going to have to buy more server space.
Tthe Top 50 End-of-Time forum members have combined to make 602,868 posts to date, accounting for 7.5% (down from 8.4%) of the total 8.0 million forum posts. They will make more than a million additional posts over the next 7 years. The rest of you should be sure to read them all for their profound wisdom!
The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever.
This is the third time that I've included the Last EOT and Delta EOT columns, to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. Therefore, it's now an official tradition.
This chart is where the real fun happens, as long-time regulars fall by the wayside and newcomers step into the limelight.
At the top
alphaod has lost the projected #1 End of Time title to Tallest Skil, who isn't even in the current Top 10 but is making more than 23 posts per day at the weighted rate. His recent post rate has been 37.4 posts/day; his overall post rate since joining is 13.8 posts/day.
alphaod's weighted rate has dropped, from 23.5 posts/day to 19.3 posts/day, but he's still ahead of Eidorian, whose rate has actually increased, from 15.9 posts/day to 16.7 posts/day.
iJohnHenry's post rate has also edged up, from 13.5 posts/day to 15.6 posts/day, so alphaod, Eidorian, and iJohnHenry, who were #1-2-3 in the End-of-Time projections last time, are now #2-3-4 behind Tallest Skil.
jessica., Abstract, and bartelby have weighted post rates in the 14-15 range.
Abstract's lead over bartelby is very very thin: 0.044 posts/day, or 1 post every 3 weeks.
With weighted post rates of 11 to 13, mkrishnan, rdowns, and robbieduncan complete the Top 10.
Just below the Top 10 are iBlue and sushi, separated by something like 6000 miles in the real world but only 0.052 posts/day at MacRumors. That's 1 post every 19 days.
Leaders and followers
Measuring leads by absolute weighted post rate, we again find that the widest disparity is at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: Tallest Skil (#1) over alphaod (#2) by 3.85 weighted posts per day
Next biggest:
The bartelby/mkrishnan lead is notable because they were in reverse order (positions #4 and #5) in the End-of-Time projections 6 months ago, with mkrishnan leading bartelby (#5) by 1.07 weighted posts per day. That made me curious whether bartelby was posting at a slightly faster rate or mkrishnan was posting at a slightly slower rate. The answer: both!
alphaod (#2) over Eidorian (#3) by 2.58 weighted posts per day
bartelby (#7) over mkrishnan (#8) by 1.74 weighted posts per day
iJohnHenry (#4) over jessica. (#5) by 1.53 weighted posts per day
All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.bartelby (#7) over mkrishnan (#8) by 1.74 weighted posts per day
iJohnHenry (#4) over jessica. (#5) by 1.53 weighted posts per day
The bartelby/mkrishnan lead is notable because they were in reverse order (positions #4 and #5) in the End-of-Time projections 6 months ago, with mkrishnan leading bartelby (#5) by 1.07 weighted posts per day. That made me curious whether bartelby was posting at a slightly faster rate or mkrishnan was posting at a slightly slower rate. The answer: both!
Closest post rate finish: skunk over wrldwzrd89 by 0.014 weighted posts per day (1 post every 72 days).
Next closest:
EricNau over jsw by 0.015 weighted posts per day (1 post every 66 days)
IJ Reilly over raggedjimmi by 0.024 weighted posts per day (1 post every 41 days)
IJ Reilly over raggedjimmi by 0.024 weighted posts per day (1 post every 41 days)
Just missed the Top 50: Chundles, by 0.020 posts/day, or one post every 50 days. Applespider and ~Shard~ would have been next in line.
Changed members
In my January projections there were 19 members not in the Top 50 but projected to move into the Top 50 eventually. This time it's 18. Most of them are the same as last time, showing good consistency, but also reinforcing the fact that "eventually" may take a while to arrive.
iJohnHenry (#4)
DoFoT9 (#13)
dukebound85 (#15)
leekohler (#17)
SFStateStudent (#21)
Consultant (#26)
Teh Don Ditty (#27)
r.j.s (#28)
bigandy (#30)
clevin (#32)
CalBoy (#33)
ChrisA (#34)
flopticalcube (#35)
yg17 (#42)
Peace (#43)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
LimeiBook86 (#48)
MacDawg (#50)
DoFoT9 (#13)
dukebound85 (#15)
leekohler (#17)
SFStateStudent (#21)
Consultant (#26)
Teh Don Ditty (#27)
r.j.s (#28)
bigandy (#30)
clevin (#32)
CalBoy (#33)
ChrisA (#34)
flopticalcube (#35)
yg17 (#42)
Peace (#43)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
LimeiBook86 (#48)
MacDawg (#50)
They displace these 18 members (current rank), who are projected to fall off the Top 50 list, also eventually:
mad jew (#1)
Mr. Anderson (#4)
~Shard~ (#10)
wdlove (#14)
devilot (#15)
bousozoku (#22)
CanadaRAM (#29)
eyelikeart (#30)
Nermal (#31)
Rower_CPU (#32)
emw (#35)
Applespider (#36)
dmw007 (#38)
vniow (#42)
arn (#43) <--- sorry, boss
Chundles (#45)
jelloshotsrule (#46)
nagromme (#47)
Mr. Anderson (#4)
~Shard~ (#10)
wdlove (#14)
devilot (#15)
bousozoku (#22)
CanadaRAM (#29)
eyelikeart (#30)
Nermal (#31)
Rower_CPU (#32)
emw (#35)
Applespider (#36)
dmw007 (#38)
vniow (#42)
arn (#43) <--- sorry, boss
Chundles (#45)
jelloshotsrule (#46)
nagromme (#47)
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: alphaod, up 37 slots, even though his weighted post rate has actually dropped 18%. I think this is a sign that my weighting formula did not give good results last time with insufficient data. New members with high post rates aren't "trusted" to keep it up, but sometimes they do.
Three other members are up 20 or more slots:
jessica., up 32 slots
xUKHCx, up 21 slots
sushi, also up 21 slots
xUKHCx, up 21 slots
sushi, also up 21 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: jsw, down 36 slots, even though his overall long-term post rate has dropped by only about 1 post/day.
Next highest (those down 20 or more slots)
yellow, down 29 slots
Mitthrawnuruodo, down 22 slots
edesignuk, down 20 slots
Mitthrawnuruodo, down 22 slots
edesignuk, down 20 slots
Only Abstract is projected to retain his current rank: #6.
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 7 new members, none in the Top 10:
DoFoT9 (#13)
SFStateStudent (#21)
Consultant (#26)
r.j.s (#28)
yg17 (#42)
Peace (#43)
MacDawg (#50)
That bumped these members from the End of Time list (rank on last End of Time list):SFStateStudent (#21)
Consultant (#26)
r.j.s (#28)
yg17 (#42)
Peace (#43)
MacDawg (#50)
devilot (was #24)
~Shard~ (was #39)
CanadaRAM (was #40)
Applespider (was #47)
Chundles (was #49)
Lord Blackadder (was #50)
~Shard~ (was #39)
CanadaRAM (was #40)
Applespider (was #47)
Chundles (was #49)
Lord Blackadder (was #50)
Highest projected rise in rank: leekohler, up 25 slots into the Top 25
Next highest:
dukebound85, up 23 slots, also into the Top 25
Tallest Skil, up 17 slots to the #1 slot
flopticalcube, up 13 slots
Tallest Skil, up 17 slots to the #1 slot
flopticalcube, up 13 slots
Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End-of-Time Top 50: CalBoy, down 21 slots and out of the Top 25
Next highest:
PlaceofDis, down 17 slots
MacNut, down 14 slots
Queso, down 12 slots
jsw, down 10 slots
MacNut, down 14 slots
Queso, down 12 slots
jsw, down 10 slots
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Abstract (#6)
rdowns (#9)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
rdowns (#9)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (25,853) and SFStateStudent has the fewest (5,560).
Six months ago, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) has 11 members in the Top 50. Now they are down to 10 (Applespider having dropped out):
alphaod, Eidorian, iJohnHenry, Abstract, iBlue, iGary, IJ Reilly, edesignuk, Eraserhead, EricNau
The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) still consists of jsw and Lau unless you take "letter" to mean only alphabetics, not any character at all, in which case r.j.s joins the club.
The number of Top 50 End-of-Time members whose user names begin with ~ has dropped by a huge percentage, namely from 1 to 0.
The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 has dropped from one post every 3.6 minutes to one post every 3.5 minutes, but since that's 24 hours a day for the rest of eternity, arn is still going to have to buy more server space.
Tthe Top 50 End-of-Time forum members have combined to make 602,868 posts to date, accounting for 7.5% (down from 8.4%) of the total 8.0 million forum posts. They will make more than a million additional posts over the next 7 years. The rest of you should be sure to read them all for their profound wisdom!
How do you think of such useless trivia?
I have a feeling Tallest Skil will have the most incorrect future projections of all time, followed by Q.
Thanks for taking the time to do this once again, Doc.
I look forward to seeing how I'll be faring at the End Of Time™.
I have a feeling Tallest Skil will have the most incorrect future projections of all time, followed by Q.
How do you think of such useless trivia?
It's really cool in the context of Macrumors. I have fallen off big time from this website and become a MySpace regular and had no idea, for instance, that Tallest Skil was anywhere near the top.
Nobody did, not even during the January 2009 projections.
I (and others) only noticed Tallest Skil's prolific post rate during the Christmas season, when someone pointed out that TS made around 400 posts in a 2-3 day span at some point between Boxing Day, and New Years. Not joking. I even checked his post history to see how many posts he made in a span of 2 days (or perhaps 3), and it was up to the 16th page or so.
I don't think the good Doc Q's January 2009 projections could have picked that info up. I guess that's why many people are probably surprised that he's leapt to the Top 20 when he wasn't even in the Top 50 six months ago.
I (and others) only noticed Tallest Skil's prolific post rate during the Christmas season, when someone pointed out that TS made around 400 posts in a 2-3 day span at some point between Boxing Day, and New Years. Not joking.
I even checked his post history to see how many posts he made in a span of 2 days (or perhaps 3), and it was up to the 16th page or so. I don't think the good Doc Q's January 2009 projections could have picked that info up. I guess that's why many people are probably surprised that he's leapt to the Top 20 when he wasn't even in the Top 50 six months ago.
I have a feeling Tallest Skil will have the most incorrect future projections of all time, followed by Q.
Poor Tallest Skill. He's like the forum mascot. Good for some cheap laughs, but nobody takes him seriously.
Nevertheless, he is, like all of us, able to read these posts, so one should in all conscience be moderate in one's comments.
You guys are dangerous.
Yo, Jim Morrison, the greatest rock and roll singer of all time!
Attachments
I wish I was as good at math as Doctor Q is. Maybe then I wouldn't be flunking Algebra I every year.
I don't think I'll ever be on any of those lists. My goal was to make it to 601, and my posting will probably slow considerably now that I have.
I don't think I'll ever be on any of those lists. My goal was to make it to 601, and my posting will probably slow considerably now that I have.
Forgot to mention one other numerical fact about my forum membership...
Today is exactly five years to the very day since I signed up here to ask about gigabit speed and cat5e network cables. Some familiar American faces who replied in my thread are still around today, which begs the question:
On the 4th of July, why were they hanging around on an internet board instead of munching on wings, coleslaw and knocking back a couple of beers?
Happy Independence Day to you all.
Ah, well maybe they were sticklers for accuracy and had celebrated on the 2nd of July (the day the vote was taken). The 4th is actually just the date that copies of the Declaration were printed up on broadsheets and distributed.
