Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2010

[Doctor Q]

This is the 15th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July
2010: January​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts. Measurements were taken on July 3rd.

Please remember that these charts and this thread are for general interest only. Please do not make posts simply to build your post count.

Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2010

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       28,791   6.4    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        26,406   8.9    3      0
  4   Eidorian        25,340  11.0    4      0
  5   jessica.        22,602  23.3   12     +7
  6   Mr. Anderson    22,509   0.1    5     -1
  7   Abstract        22,207   3.6    7      0
  8   jsw             22,128   0.1    6     -2
  9   Blue Velvet     20,346   0.0    8     -1
 10   rdowns          19,496  17.3   17     +7
 11   bartelby        19,453   2.3   10     -1
 12   edesignuk       19,251   0.1    9     -3
 13   iGary           19,077   1.9   11     -2
 14   PlaceofDis      18,399   1.5   14      0
 15   ~Shard~         18,282   0.0   13     -2
 16   robbieduncan    18,041  10.2   18     +2
 17   iBlue           17,300   3.8   15     -2
 18   Dagless         17,178   6.8   19     +1
 19   wdlove          16,567   0.0   16     -3
 20   yellow          15,769   2.3   21     +1
 21   devilot         15,586   0.2   20     -1
 22   Jaffa Cake      15,096   4.8   23     +1
 23   WildCowboy      14,787   1.3   22     -1
 24   MacNut          14,739   4.3   26     +2
 25   Sun Baked       14,404   1.7   24     -1

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 26   sushi           14,239   6.5   27     +1
 27   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   25     -2
 28   alphaod         13,894   8.2   29     +1
 29   DoFoT9          13,661  19.4   46    +17
 30   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,067   2.0   28     -2
 31   Nermal          12,945   3.9   32     +1
 32   dukebound85     12,821  10.8   39     +7
 33   twoodcc         12,624   3.3   33      0
 34   CanadaRAM       12,313   0.1   30     -4
 35   IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   31     -4
 36   eyelikeart      11,894   0.0   34     -2
 37   -aggie-         11,513  26.0  ---    ---
 38   xUKHCx          11,492   3.3   38      0
 39   iJohnHenry      11,422   6.7   44     +5
 40   Rower_CPU       11,211   0.0   35     -5
 41   leekohler       11,202   6.8   49     +8
 42   emw             11,059   0.0   36     -6
 43   Applespider     10,941   0.0   37     -6
 44   Teh Don Ditty   10,918   2.9   41     -3
 45   Queso           10,878   4.1   47     +2
 46   dmw007          10,633   0.2   40     -6
 47   Chundles        10,466   1.5   45     -2
 48   Lau             10,380   0.0   42     -6
 49   Peace           10,366  11.7  ---    ---
 50   r.j.s           10,353   3.3   50      0

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2010), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Other stats and charts:

Length of membership (the next post)
Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
​

 

[Doctor Q]

Length of membership

Mean average among active posters in the Top 50: 72.6 months (6.05 years), up 3.3 months since last time. The average length of membership doesn't grow by 6 months every 6 months because the longest-term members aren't necessarily the highest posters.

Standard deviation: 21.6 (1.8 years)

The biggest news is that the Top 50 poster with the longest membership has changed. That's because arn has been eclipsed by other users on his own website. He is no longer in the Top 50!

Among active Top 50 posters, the members with the longest memberships are:

eyelikeart, 114 months (9.5 years)

Second-longest: Rower_CPU, 105 months (8.7 years)

Third-longest: Mr. Anderson, 104 months (8.7 years)
​

Shortest among active Top 50 members: -aggie-, 12.5 months (1.0 years)

Second-shortest: iJohnHenry, 27.4 months (2.3 years)
​

eyelikeart is no longer an active poster but if he can hold onto his Top 50 ranking for 6 more months he'll be the first Top 50 poster to have been a forum member for a decade. If that accomplishment shows up in my stats next January it'll be by the barest of margins, since he joined January 2, 2001 and I'll gather the new data on January 3, 2011.

The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red. As you can see, memberships less than 5 years no longer have much potential to reach the Top 50, but 30% of the Top 50 are in their 6th year at MacRumors.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

Changed members

Two members joined the Top 50 list, neither making the Top 25:

-aggie- (#37)
Peace (#49)​

The following 5 members missed the Top 50 despite each having over 10,000 posts. The are in order from highest to lowest post count.

arn (was #48)
vniow (was #43)
skunk
Eraserhead
MacDawg​

Changes in rank

Average change in rank: -0.1 <--- Thrilling new stat!

Highest rise in rank: DoFoT9 up 17 slots from #46 to #29, not quite the Top 25.

Next highest:

leekohler (up 8 slots)
jessica. (up 7 slots in the last 6 months and up a total of 32 slots in the last year)
rdowns and dukebound85 (also up 7 slots)
​

The highest loss in rank was 6 slots by these inactive or mostly inactive users:

emw
Applespider
dmw007
Lau

Next highest:

Rower_CPU (down 5 slots)​

A record number of members (9) retained their position in the Top 50 list:

mad jew (#1 seven times in a row)
mkrishnan (#2 four times in a row)
Doctor Q (#3 four times in a row)
Eidorian (#4 two times in a row)
Abstract (#7 two times in a row)
PlaceofDis (#14 two times in a row)
twoodcc (#33 two times in a row)
xUKHCx (#38 two times in a row)
r.j.s (#50 two times in a row)
​

If edesignuk had stayed #9 it would have been for the eight time in a row, but he's now #12.

arn missed the Top 50 by 27 posts (0.15 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 6.7 days).

vniow missed the Top 50 by 55 posts (0.30 posts per day, or 1 post every 3.3 days).​

Changes in the Top 10

mad jew hasn't posted since September 4, 2008 but is still 3415 posts ahead of #2 mkrishnan. Last time the lead was 4577 posts.

Doctor Q and Eidorian stayed at #3 and #4, respectively, while jessica. leaped into the #5 slot, bumping Mr. Anderson down 1 slot to #6. Abstract stayed at #7 while jsw and Blue Velvet, who post now and then but not regularly, dropped from #6 and #8 to #8 and #9, respectively. bartelby and edesignuk were bumped out of the Top 10 by the arrival of rdowns at #10.

Random stats

The number of members with 20,000 or more posts rose from 8 to 9.

For the first time, everyone on the Top 50 has 10,000 or more posts. I predicted that it would take 10,298 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number is 10,353, so I was very close.

Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 792,518 posts at MacRumors (an average of 15,850 each). If you had a 40-hour-a-week job reading posts by the Top 50 forum members, it would take you more than 6 months to read all of their posts.

Posts in the last 6 months

This section excludes members who were not on my radar screen 6 months ago since I didn't track their post histories. I try to spot up-and-coming posters who might join the Top 50 before the next 6-month period.

Highest number of posts in 6 months: -aggie-, 4703 posts, 26.0 posts per day

Next-highest:

jessica., 4220 posts, 23.3 posts per day. She made 7614 posts in the preceding 6 months.
DoFoT9, 3516 posts, 19.4 posts/day
rdowns, 3133 posts, 17.3 posts/day

They were the only members with over 3000 posts in 6 months.​

Only 1 member had a post count between 2000 and 3000 in 6 months:

Peace, 2119 posts, 11.7 posts per day​

Infrequent posters:

These 17 members stayed in the Top 50 despite making fewer than 40 posts. 9 of the 17 made no posts at all.

dmw007, devilot, CanadaRAM, Mr. Anderson, jsw, edesignuk, Blue Velvet, Rower_CPU, mad jew, ~Shard~, wdlove, bousozoku, IJ Reilly, eyelikeart, emw, Applespider, Lau.​

My Predictions from 6 months ago

Here are my projections from 6 months, predicting today's rankings.

I got 9 out of 10 predictions right for who would be in the Top 10. I had bartelby in the #10 slot and instead it went to rdowns. I had predicted that Eidorian would overtake Doctor Q for the #3 slot. Although that's still projected it has yet to occur.

I got 49 out of 50 predictions right for who would be in the Top 50. I had vniow making the list. Instead it was Peace.

Useless observation

There's an interesting pattern in the Delta Rank column. If we use to mean "user retained or increased rank" and to mean "user lost rank", we can see an alternating pattern for the 16 members ranked #13 through #28:

#13 iGary
#14 PlaceofDis
#15 ~Shard~
#16 robbieduncan
#17 iBlue
#18 Dagless
#19 wdlove
#20 yellow
#21 devilot
#22 Jaffa Cake
#23 WildCowboy
#24 MacNut
#25 Sun Baked
#26 sushi
#27 bousozoku
#28 alphaod
​

Aren't you glad to know this?

Excluded members and posts

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #20, the same as last time.

 

[GoCubsGo]

I'm pretty hungry.

Albeit sad, I'm actually thinking I should get a t-shirt that says "Delta Rank +7" because it kind of sounds cool and Chuck Norris-like.

 

[stridemat]

I was think it must be about time for another update just the other day. I sense arn will order some bannings, so he can reclaim his position in the top 50.

 

[Doctor Q]

6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2010

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2011     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,206    1     +0
  2   mkrishnan       29,979    2     +0
  3   Doctor Q        28,061    3     +0
  4   Eidorian        27,371    4     +0
  5   jessica.        26,915    5     +0
  6   Abstract        22,865    7     +1
  7   rdowns          22,698   10     +3
  8   Mr. Anderson    22,535    6     -2
  9   jsw             22,128    8     -1
 10   Blue Velvet     20,355    9     -1
 11   robbieduncan    19,928   16     +5
 12   bartelby        19,870   11     -1
 13   iGary           19,426   13     +0
 14   edesignuk       19,273   12     -2
 15   PlaceofDis      18,672   14     -1
 16   Dagless         18,429   18     +2
 17   ~Shard~         18,282   15     -2
 18   iBlue           17,995   17     -1
 19   DoFoT9          17,255   29    +10
 20   wdlove          16,567   19     -1
 21   -aggie-         16,320   37    +16
 22   yellow          16,188   20     -2
 23   Jaffa Cake      15,980   22     -1
 24   devilot         15,586   21     -3
 25   MacNut          15,532   24     -1

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2011     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   sushi           15,448   26     +0
 27   alphaod         15,420   28     +1
 28   WildCowboy      15,029   23     -5
 29   dukebound85     14,821   32     +3
 30   Sun Baked       14,726   25     -5
 31   bousozoku       13,998   27     -4
 32   Nermal          13,670   31     -1
 33   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,444   30     -3
 34   twoodcc         13,238   33     -1
 35   MacDawg         12,751  ---    ---
 36   iJohnHenry      12,663   39     +3
 37   Peace           12,532   49    +12
 38   leekohler       12,455   41     +3
 39   CanadaRAM       12,340   34     -5
 40   IJ Reilly       12,268   35     -5
 41   spinnerlys      12,180  ---    ---
 42   Hellhammer      12,130  ---    ---
 43   xUKHCx          12,106   38     -5
 44   yg17            11,994  ---    ---
 45   eyelikeart      11,894   36     -9
 46   Queso           11,638   45     -1
 47   Teh Don Ditty   11,446   44     -3
 48   Rower_CPU       11,216   40     -8
 49   emw             11,059   42     -7
 50   r.j.s           10,972   50     +0

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection Jan 4, 2011 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
   
3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2010 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

 

[Doctor Q]

Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months. That's why I started creating these threads, for the fun of making the projections and seeing how they turn out.

The results shown here are only estimates because members change their posting rates over time, some speeding up and some slowing down. Sometimes new members appear who I hadn't realized were approaching the Top 50. Sometimes it's easy to spot them inching up the rankings every 6 months.

Changed members

Four members are projected to join the Top 50:

MacDawg (#35)
spinnerlys (#41)
Hellhammer (#42)
yg17 (#44)
​

Four members in the current Top 50 are projected to drop off the list in the next 6 months:

Applespider (currently #43)
Chundles (currently #47)
dmw007 (currently #46)
Lau (currently #48)
​

Member closest to but not in the Top 50:

Applespider missed the Top 50 by 31 posts (0.17 posts/day, or 1 post every 5.8 days)

Next closest:

skunk -- by 149 posts (0.82 posts/day)
Chundles -- by 220 posts (1.22 posts/day)
arn -- by 301 posts (1.66 posts/day; he would probably post more if he knew anything about Apple's business)
dmw007 -- by 303 posts (1.67 posts/day)
​

No other members were within 400 posts of the Top 50.​

Changes at the top

According to these projections, the Top 5 won't change at all: mad jew, mkrishnan, Doctor Q, Eidorian, and jessica.

Among the rest of the Top 10, the names are the same but the order is different: Abstract inches up from #7 to #6 and rdowns hops up from #10 to #7, leaving Mr. Anderson, jsw, and Blue Velvet in the last 3 spots (#8-9-10 instead of #6-8-9).

Calling the race

Largest margin of victory: jessica. (#5) over Abstract (#6) by 4050 posts. jessica. also had the largest margin of victory in the projections six months ago, and she was expected to be #5 then too.

Next largest:

mad jew over mkrishnan by 2227 posts
mkrishnan over Doctor Q by 1918 posts
jsw over Blue Velvet by 1773 posts
​

No other margin is more than 1,000.
​

Smallest margin of victory: Hellhammer over xUKHCx by 24 posts

Next smallest:

sushi over alphaod by 28 posts
​

yg17 beat eyelikeart by exactly 100 posts, 11994 to 11894. Only r.j.s made the projected Top 50 with less than 11,000 posts.

Highest projected rise in rank: -aggie-, up 16 slots from #37 to #21, making the Top 25 within 6 months of joining the current Top 50.

Next highest:

Peace, up 12 slots to #37
DoFoT9, up 10 slots to #33. Six months ago he was projected to advance 13 slots. The actual number turned out to be 17, so this would make it an advance of 27 slots in a year.
​

No other increases were in double digits.
​

Highest projected loss in rank: eyelikeart (down 9 slots to #45)

Next highest:

Rower_CPU, dropping 8 slots to #48
emw, dropping 7 slots to #49
​

In addition to the Top 5, these 2 members are projected to hold their current rank:

iGary (#13)
sushi (#26)

Wow - their ranks are both multiples of 13!! (Sorry, I'll try to calm down.)
​

Excluded and inactive members

MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) and banned members are excluded from my tracking. If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #24.

9 members (18%) of the projected Top 50 have fewer than 10 posts (inactive or posting only occasionally):

Blue Velvet (#10)
bousozoku (#31)
emw (#49)
eyelikeart (#45)
IJ Reilly (#40)
mad jew (#1)
Rower_CPU (#48)
~Shard~ (#17)
wdlove (#20)
​

Trivia

According to these projections, by January 4 next year there will have been 841,855 total posts by the Top 50 members, 49,337 more posts than those 50 members have today.

The average Top 50 member will have 16,837 posts total, having made 987 posts (5.4 posts/day) in the 6 months between now and January.

It's amusing to note that the 20,000-post cutoff comes out just below the Top 10. Those with 20,355 or more posts will be in the Top Ten; those with 19,928 or fewer will not. Sorry, robbieduncan!

It is projected to take 10,972 posts to make the Top 50 (currently it's 10,353).

The following 14 members are projected to have 10,000 or more posts without making the Top 50. This is the last time I'll track this statistic since the number of such members will continue to grow:

Applespider, skunk, Chundles, arn, dmw007, Eraserhead, miles01110, GGJstudios, Lau, vniow, wrldwzrd89, MacRumorUser, nagromme, nanofrog​

Useless Trivia

Member whose post count is closest to their member number: mad jew (user #31961) with 32206 posts (difference of 245)

Second closest: Nermal (user #13233) with 13670 posts (difference of 437)

Least close: -aggie- (user #329797) with 16320 posts (difference of 313477)
​

Four members have projected post counts that are prime numbers:

edesignuk (19273)
wdlove (16567)
dukebound85 (14821)
emw (11059)
​

Consecutive members with user names of the same length:

Doctor Q and Eidorian and jessica. (slots #3-4-5, length 8)

leekohler and CanadaRAM (slots #38-39, length 9)

We usually get more than 2 runs. I blame the poor showing on the global economy.
​

The winner of the Apple Pi Contest, for having the slot-number to length-of-user-name ratio that is closest to pi:

DoFoT9 (19/6 = 3.17), the same slot # and length that wdlove had last time​

The member in slot 42 is by tradition declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations, Hellhammer!

 

[miles01110]

That's because arn has been eclipsed by other users on his own website. He is no longer in the Top 50!

Oh man, what a loser!

 

[dukebound85]

Always love these threads

Great trivia, keep it up Dr. Q!

 

[Surely]

-aggie- who?

 

[bartelby]

My Predictions from 6 months ago

Here are my projections from 6 months, predicting today's rankings.

I got 9 out of 10 predictions right for who would be in the Top 10. I had bartelby in the #10 slot and instead it went to rdowns.

Sorry I messed up your predictions Q...

 

[stridemat]

Snip
The member in slot 42 is by tradition declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations, Hellhammer!

Well that's going to go to someones head

 

[rdowns]

Oh my, I need a life.


Thanks for putting these together, Doctor Q.

 

[robbieduncan]

It's amusing to note that the 20,000-post cutoff comes out just below the Top 10. Those with 20,355 or more posts will be in the Top Ten; those with 19,928 or fewer will not. Sorry, robbieduncan!

Awesome work as usual Q. Clearly if I go on a spam rampage I might finally catch up to the delightful BV.

Edit: clearly I've already started. 24 posts today so far!

 

[Melrose]

-aggie- who?

You know, The Demi Formerly Known As iPhone-Aggie™

Melrose is sad he is not on the list I need to post more.

 

[Ttownbeast]

I would find it a little disturbing to find myself on that list, I don't get enough time to myself as it is LOL

 

[r.j.s]

I need to post more.

Yeah, a lot more if you want to make the list.

Thanks for compiling the info as always Doc.

 

[Melrose]

Yeah, a lot more if you want to make the list.

Thanks for compiling the info as always Doc.

Well, at least my few posts are all 100% high-quality, world-class original content.

 

[PlaceofDis]

no change is a good thing? mebbe. i haven't been posting much, but apparently neither have a lot of people. i doubt i'll see me climbing up the rankings anytime soon though.

 

[r.j.s]

no change is a good thing? mebbe. i haven't been posting much, but apparently neither have a lot of people. i doubt i'll see me climbing up the rankings anytime soon though.

I think there has been a lot more newbie activity, rather than established posters.

 

[PlaceofDis]

I think there has been a lot more newbie activity, rather than established posters.

indeed, and large influxes of new people tend to make the established members back off a bit.

 

[iBlue]

It's a little strange to see some of our previous top posters going more inactive. I've always been a little embarrassed by my ranking on there so I don't mind going down a bit, as it were.

Thanks for doing these, Q.

 

[Ttownbeast]

I never really kept track of mine I'd rather not inflate written avatars ego here, but I do enjoy stroking my ego on Google at least 9 pages just as ttownbeast there lol (at least 99 percent of it is me). that and I have been checking my stats as an artist under my real name in Google promoting my website my lowest ranking in Google is page 3 under my real name and it ranks as high as page 1 depending on exactly what is typed in....Ok yah there I stroke my ego I admit it I am a whoreing artist LOL

 

[ethical]

The math geek inside me loves these statistics, the forum geek inside me wants to get on that list.

 

[Nermal]

This is my first positive delta rank since January 2006! I must be spamming more than usual