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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2010

Nermal said:
This is my first positive delta rank since January 2006! I must be spamming more than usual 😉
Click to expand...

I'm amazed at all the spambots that will be passing me rather quickly. Not to mention mad jew is going to be knocked off rather soon.
 
haha wow ive made quite an advancement. i have done +125 posts today!, and about +75 yesterday.

+17 delta, WOW!

myself and hellhammer have a competition going on, so ive stepped up the game a bit to get my posts higher 😉

Q if you want to predict anything a bit higher then 17k posts for myself in the next 6 months you might wanna aim a tad higher 😉

what is kinda sad is as of when the results were taken i had 13,661 posts, now have 13,858 🙂
 
DoFoT9 said:
haha wow ive made quite an advancement. i have done +125 posts today!, and about +75 yesterday.

+17 delta, WOW!

myself and hellhammer have a competition going on, so ive stepped up the game a bit to get my posts higher 😉

Q if you want to predict anything a bit higher then 17k posts for myself in the next 6 months you might wanna aim a tad higher 😉

what is kinda sad is as of when the results were taken i had 13,661 posts, now have 13,858 🙂
Click to expand...

Just pray that MacRumors keeps its servers updated and fresh and its data well backed up 😀
 
DoFoT9 said:
haha wow ive made quite an advancement. i have done +125 posts today!, and about +75 yesterday.

+17 delta, WOW!

myself and hellhammer have a competition going on, so ive stepped up the game a bit to get my posts higher 😉

Q if you want to predict anything a bit higher then 17k posts for myself in the next 6 months you might wanna aim a tad higher 😉

what is kinda sad is as of when the results were taken i had 13,661 posts, now have 13,858 🙂
Click to expand...

Never has one man posted so much but said so little. 😀
 
I am surprised my numbers stayed as high as they did this time around. My posting tailed off I thought.
 
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2010

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
  1   -aggie-           30.19    37    +36     1     +0
  2   jessica.          25.52     5     +3     2     +0
  3   Hellhammer        16.07   ---    ---   ---    ---
  4   DoFoT9            16.03    29    +25     8     +4
  5   rdowns            15.09    10     +5     7     +2
  6   spinnerlys        14.35   ---    ---   ---    ---
  7   Eidorian          14.04     4     -3     3     -4
  8   alphaod           11.59    28    +20     5     -3
  9   iJohnHenry        11.51    39    +30     4     -5
 10   GGJstudios        10.88   ---    ---   ---    ---
 11   dukebound85       10.51    32    +21    12     +1
 12   nanofrog          10.26   ---    ---    10     -2
 13   robbieduncan       9.94    16     +3    14     +1
 14   MacDawg            9.41   ---    ---    35    +21
 15   yg17               9.00   ---    ---    24     +9
 16   r.j.s              8.81    50    +34     6    -10
 17   Applejuiced        8.71   ---    ---   ---    ---
 18   mkrishnan          8.68     2    -16     9     -9
 19   sushi              8.39    26     +7    11     -8
 20   Doctor Q           8.21     3    -17    20     +0
 21   Peace              8.06    49    +28    37    +16
 22   leekohler          7.59    41    +19    18     -4
 23   jav6454            7.54   ---    ---   ---    ---
 24   TuffLuffJimmy      7.16   ---    ---    25     +1
 25   Consultant         6.99   ---    ---    23     -2
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 26   Surely             6.97   ---    ---   ---    ---
 27   Dagless            6.61    18     -9    28     +1
 28   miles01110         6.49   ---    ---   ---    ---
 29   iBlue              6.46    17    -12    17    -12
 30   Abstract           6.40     7    -23    16    -14
 31   flopticalcube      6.27   ---    ---    34     +3
 32   Teh Don Ditty      6.16    44    +12    15    -17
 33   bartelby           6.15    11    -22    13    -20
 34   Jaffa Cake         6.09    22    -12    22    -12
 35   thegoldenmackid    5.42   ---    ---    29     -6
 36   dejo               5.15   ---    ---    45     +9
 37   MacNut             5.12    24    -13    30     -7
 38   twoodcc            4.89    33     -5    27    -11
 39   SilentPanda        4.69   ---    ---    39     +0
 40   xUKHCx             4.53    38     -2    31     -9
 41   jmann              4.44   ---    ---    19    -22
 42   AidenShaw          4.34   ---    ---   ---    ---
 43   iGary              4.20    13    -30    26    -17
 44   SFStateStudent     4.14   ---    ---    21    -23
 45   aristobrat         3.92   ---    ---   ---    ---
 46   MisterMe           3.78   ---    ---   ---    ---
 47   angelwatt          3.72   ---    ---   ---    ---
 48   balamw             3.64   ---    ---   ---    ---
 49   ChrisA             3.40   ---    ---    36    -13
 50   Queso              3.33    45     -5   ---    ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
  3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2010, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
  6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2010, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
  7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
 
Comments on the End of Time Projections

Compared to the standings as of today (in Chart #1, the Top 50 changes quite a bit when projected infinitely into the future. This chart starts with the assumptions that all members will live forever, continuing to post at their recent rates. Despite the questionable assumptions, this lets us have a fun look at ourselves.

The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever. The Last EOT and Delta EOT columns allow us to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now.

At the top

As he did 6 months ago, -aggie- tops the list. His overall post rate was over 34 posts per day in the first 6 months after he joined in June 2009. Since then his post rate dropped to 26 posts per day and his overall average to 30 posts per day. My weighted-average formula turns that data into an expected future rate of 30.19 posts per day.

Only jessica. is close to that rate, with over 25 weighted posts per day. Her weighted post rate seems to have leveled off:
Jul 08 to Jan 09 - 9.8 weighted posts per day
Jan 09 to Jul 09 - 14.1 weighted posts per day
Jul 09 to Jan 10 - 27.72 weighted posts per day
Jan 10 to Jul 10 - 25.52 weighted posts per day
​

-aggie-'s post rate is equivalent to 1 post every 24 minutes for 12 hours a day, 7 days a week. For jessica. it would be 1 post every 28 minutes. For comparison, Queso (#50 on the list) posts at a rate of 3.33 weighted posts per day, which is equivalent to 1 post every 3.6 hours for 12 hours a day.

How long do you long-time regular users actually spend at MacRumors each day?

Five other members make over a dozen posts per day:
Hellhammer (#3), DoFoT9 (#4), rdowns (#5), spinnerlys (#6), Eidorian (#7)
​

alphaod (#8), iJohnHenry (#9), and GGJstudios (#10) complete the Top 10, making 11 to 12 weighted posts per day.

The only other members with more than 10 weighted posts per day are dukebound85 (#11) and nanofrog (#12). Most Top 50 members make 5 to 10 posts per day, but as few as 25 (weighted) posts per week is enough to get you on the list.

Leaders and followers

Leads by weighted post rate always show the widest disparity at the top of the list:

Biggest post rate lead: jessica. (#2) over Hellhammer (#3) by 9.45 weighted posts per day
Next biggest:
-aggie- (#1) over jessica. (#2) by 4.67 weighted posts per day. They held the same ranks last time but the gap in post rate was 6.67. The closer race is a result of -aggie- slowing down more than jessica. has slowed down.

Eidorian (#7) over alphaod (#8) by 2.44 weighted posts per day
​
All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.
​

Closest post rate finish: Teh Don Ditty over bartelby by 0.008 weighted posts per day (3 posts per year!)
Next closest:
Consultant over Surely by 0.015 weighted posts per day (5 posts per year)
​

Just missed the Top 50: Nermal, by the James Bond difference of 0.007 weighted posts per day, or 2.3 posts per year. skunk and Lord Blackadder would have been next in line.

Changed Top 50 membership

24 (48%) of the Top 50 posters at the End of Time are not in the current Top 50. Their post rates will eventually overtake all those with higher post counts but lower post rates.

Hellhammer
spinnerlys
GGJstudios
nanofrog
MacDawg
yg17
Applejuiced
jav6454
TuffLuffJimmy
Consultant
Surely
miles01110
flopticalcube
thegoldenmackid
dejo
SilentPanda
jmann
AidenShaw
SFStateStudent
aristobrat
MisterMe
angelwatt
balamw
ChrisA
​

These users are active posters and members of the current Top 50, but they won't make the End of Time Top 50 list:
Nermal
Sun Baked
PlaceofDis
yellow
Mitthrawnuruodo
WildCowboy
Chundles
​

Getting there is half the fun

Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:

Highest projected rise in rank: -aggie-, up 36 slots
Next highest (those up 20 or more slots):
r.j.s, up 34 slots

iJohnHenry, up 30 slots

Peace, up 28 slots

DoFoT9, up 25 slots

dukebound85, up 21 slots

alphaod, up 20 slots
​

Highest projected loss in rank: iGary, down 30 slots
Next highest (those down 20 or more slots)
Abstract, down 23 slots

bartelby, down 22 slots
​

No members are projected to retain their current rank. That's typical for this comparison.

Changes in the Top 50 End of Time

This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now. These measures help us identify newly arriving champs.

In the End of Time projections we find 13 new members, 3 of them in the Top 10:
Hellhammer
spinnerlys
GGJstudios
Applejuiced
jav6454
Surely
miles01110
AidenShaw
aristobrat
MisterMe
angelwatt
balamw
Queso
​

That bumped these active members from the End of Time list:
skunk
Eraserhead
Sun Baked
wrldwzrd89
PlaceofDis
yellow
clevin
QCassidy352
WildCowboy
​

Highest projected rise in rank: MacDawg, up 21 slots
Next highest: Peace, up 16 slots
​

Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End-of-Time Top 50: SFStateStudent, down 23 slots
Next highest:
jmann, down 22 slots

bartelby, down 20 slots
​

Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
-aggie- (#1)
jessica. (#2)
Doctor Q (#20)
SilentPanda (#39)
​

Personal note: Either I happened to be in that list by accident or I purposely increased my post rate by one weighted post every 1.369863014 days, just so I could maintain my #20 rank. 😉

Trivia and silliness

Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, mkrishnan has the most current posts (28,791). He had this same distinction in the projections 6 and 12 months ago. Top 50 End-of-Timer jmann has the fewest current posts (6359).

Since six months ago, the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) grew from 9 to 11 members. The A's are clearly taking over!
Abstract, -aggie-, AidenShaw*, alphaod, angelwatt*, Applejuiced*, aristobrat*, Eidorian, iBlue, iGary, iJohnHenry

Lost from the Top 50: edesignuk, Eraserhead

* means "new to the list"
​

The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club), which began as a designation for members with 3-letter user names, has quintupled it's size by expanding it's membership guidelines. It now features 5 users with either 3 total letters or exactly 3 capital letters:
DoFoT9
GGJstudios
r.j.s
Teh Don Ditty
TuffLuffJimmy
​

The number of Top 50 End-of-Time members whose user name ends with a digit has stayed steady at 5 once again. That's convenient for people who count on their fingers.

The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 has dropped ever so slightly, from one post every 3.5 minutes to one post every 3.42 minutes. Luckily, we have thousands of newbies ready to chip in!

The Top 50 End-of-Time forum members have combined to make 610,968 posts to date, accounting for 5.9% (down from 6.8%) of the total 10.4 million forum posts. The Top 50 will have one million posts of their own on January 12, 2013. That's a Saturday in case you want to mark your calendar. I don't know what time of day the one millionth Top-50-End-of-Timer post will be. It depends on whether -aggie-'s hands get tired!
 
Doctor how do you handle all this math? What do you use to figure all the sums, products and quotients?
 
Good lord Jessica. You are a freaking posting machine!!!! If you keep this up we will have a new number one in now time!!!
 
ValSalva said:
Just pray that MacRumors keeps its servers updated and fresh and its data well backed up 😀
Click to expand...
we can only hope 😛 had that happen to me on another forum one time 🙁 i nearly died lol

rdowns said:
Never has one man posted so much but said so little. 😀
Click to expand...
you should take a look at the things ive been saying in the past few days, pretty much all helpful for newbies and whatnot trying to explain things to them. not just useless social garbage 🙄

bartelby said:
I'd say you're close to a time-out for spamming...
Click to expand...
? how is helping spamming? 😎

p.s. DAMN! hellhammer is going to beat me to EOT!
 
I miss mad jew too. He was a prolific "spamelper" (helping Mac users with dozens of posts every day).

Melrose said:
Doctor how do you handle all this math? What do you use to figure all the sums, products and quotients?
Click to expand...
I keep adding more data, rows, and columns to my primary Top Poster spreadsheet. It's in Excel. No, not Numbers for iPad.

I developed all the formulas and keep refining them over time. I compute each chart I post with secondary spreadsheets using data extracted from the primary one. The main spreadsheet has some wonderful/awful cell formulas like this one in cell EH100:
Code: 
=IF(OR($F100<$G$1,$F100>DY$1),IF(AND(AND(ISBLANK($E100),EB100>=6),ED100>EC100*0.05),EG100,-1),-1)
The spreadsheet now has 30508 cells!
 
Doctor Q said:
I miss mad jew too. He was a prolific "spamelper" (helping Mac users with dozens of posts every day).


I keep adding more data, rows, and columns to my primary Top Poster spreadsheet. It's in Excel. No, not Numbers for iPad.

I developed all the formulas and keep refining them over time. I compute each chart I post with secondary spreadsheets using data extracted from the primary one. The main spreadsheet has some wonderful/awful cell formulas like this one in cell EH100:
Code: 
=IF(OR($F100<$G$1,$F100>DY$1),IF(AND(AND(ISBLANK($E100),EB100>=6),ED100>EC100*0.05),EG100,-1),-1)
The spreadsheet now has 30508 cells!
Click to expand...

I hate spreadsheets and numbers; Gotta hand it to you, man... you have the patience of a saint to work with all that and make sense of it. 🙂
 
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