Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2011

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2011.

  1. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2011
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2011

    Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    This is the 17th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

    Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:
    2003: July
    2004: January, July
    2005: January, July
    2006: January, July
    2007: January, July
    2008: January, July
    2009: January, July
    2010: January, July
    2011: January

    The legend of column headings follows each chart. My comments and analysis follow the charts. Measurements were taken yesterday (July 3rd).

    These charts and this thread are for general interest only. Please don't make posts simply to build your post count.


    Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2011

    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
     1    mad jew         32,206   0.0    1      0
     2    Doctor Q        28,943   7.2    3     +1
     3    mkrishnan       28,938   0.2    2     -1
     4    Eidorian        26,753   3.2    4      0
     5    jessica.        26,629   7.1    5      0
     6    rdowns          23,358  10.5    9     +3
     7    Abstract        23,313   2.9    6     -1
     8    Mr. Anderson    22,550   0.0    7     -1
     9    jsw             22,132   0.0    8     -1
    10    Blue Velvet     21,756   1.8   10      0
    11    robbieduncan    21,468   8.9   11      0
    12    bartelby        19,720   0.2   12      0
    13    iGary           19,553   0.9   13      0
    14    edesignuk       19,252   0.0   14      0
    15    Hellhammer      19,045  22.4   28    +13
    16    PlaceofDis      18,655   0.4   15     -1
    17    iBlue           18,613   2.1   17      0
    18    GGJstudios      18,496  34.6   41    +23
    19    ~Shard~         18,282   0.0   16     -3
    20    Dagless         18,271   3.1   18     -2
    21    DoFoT9          16,936   3.6   20     -1
    22    Applejuiced     16,823  21.9   37    +15
    23    Jaffa Cake      16,641   3.9   21     -2
    24    wdlove          16,571   0.0   19     -5
    25    yellow          16,003   0.6   22     -3
    Code:
                          Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
    Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
    26    -aggie-         15,602   9.1   32     +6
    27    devilot         15,592   0.0   23     -4
    28    MacNut          15,548   2.2   25     -3
    29    sushi           15,420   0.8   24     -5
    30    alphaod         15,314   1.7   27     -3
    31    WildCowboy      15,282   0.9   26     -5
    32    Sun Baked       14,662   0.0   29     -3
    33    dukebound85     14,318   3.5   33      0
    34    bousozoku       13,998   0.0   31     -3
    35    MacDawg         13,868   9.6   43     +8
    36    Nermal          13,798   2.3   34     -2
    37    iJohnHenry      13,665   5.7   38     +1
    38    twoodcc         13,569   1.8   36     -2
    39    Mitthrawnuruodo 13,531   1.6   35     -4
    40    miles01110      13,206  11.3   50    +10
    41    leekohler       12,856   3.8   42     +1
    42    xUKHCx          12,353   2.4   44     +2
    43    CanadaRAM       12,349   0.1   39     -4
    44    IJ Reilly       12,268   0.0   40     -4
    45    eyelikeart      11,894   0.0   45      0
    46    r.j.s           11,795   2.4   47     +1
    47    Surely          11,742  12.3  ---    ---
    48    Queso           11,691   0.6   46     -2
    49    balamw          11,612  13.1  ---    ---
    50    yg17            11,540   3.7  ---    ---
    Columns:
    1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership if they joined less than 6 months ago.
    5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2011), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.
    Other stats and charts:
     
  2. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Length of membership

    Mean average length of membership among posters in the Top 50: 80.7 months (6.73 years), up 5.8 months since last time. The average length of membership doesn't grow by 6 months every 6 months because the longest-term members aren't necessarily the highest posters.

    Standard deviation: 24.5 (2.0 years)

    Inactive member eyelikeart leads the way with 10.5 years as a member. Among active posters, MacNut has the longest membership, 9.5 years, followed by Sun Baked's 9.1 years.

    Shortest memberships among active Top 50 members: -aggie-, at 24.5 months (2.0 years). He also had the shortest membership among the Top 50 when I measured this 6 months ago and 12 months ago.
    Second-shortest: Hellhammer, 30.8 months (2.6 years). He was second-shortest 6 months ago too.
    The graph below shows the distribution of length of membership among the Top 50. The current distribution is in blue. The distribution from 6 months ago is in red.

    The "baby boom" (largest group) is now in the 6-to-8-year range. Nobody with a membership under 2 years is in the Top 50. Nobody but eyelikeart has reached a decade as a member, although Mr. Anderson has only four months left to reach that milestone.

    Click for larger size:

    Length-of-membership.png
     
  3. Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2011
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2011

    Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #3
    Comments on the Current Top 50 Posters chart

    Changed members

    Three members joined the Top 50 list, taking 3 of the 4 bottom slots:
    Surely (#47)
    balamw (#49)
    yg17 (#50)​

    Two members dropped out of the Top 50:
    Teh Don Ditty (no posts since November 2010)
    Rower_CPU (no posts since July 2010)
    Five members had over 11,000 posts but missed the Top 50. In order from highest to lowest post count:
    skunk
    Teh Don Ditty
    Rower_CPU
    emw
    Peace
    16 members had 10,000 posts but didn't make the Top 50.


    Changes in rank

    Average change in rank of those remaining in the Top 50: +1.02

    Highest rise in rank: GGJstudios, up 23 slots and into the Top 20, from #41 to #18.
    Next highest:
    Applejuiced (up 15 slots)
    Hellhammer (up 13 slots)
    miles01110 (up 10 slots)

    The highest loss in rank was a shift of only 5 slots. It was a 3-way tie among a retired user, a moderator, and an editor:
    wdlove (down 5 slots, no posts since March 2007)
    sushi (down 5 slots, 153 posts in 6 months)
    WildCowboy (down 5 slots, matching sushi's rate by making 154 posts in 6 months)
    Next highest: 4-way tie:
    devilot (down 4 slots, 6 posts in 6 months)
    Mitthrawnuruodo (down 4 slots, 283 posts in 6 months)
    CanadaRAM (down 4 slots, 14 posts in 6 months)
    IJ Reilly (down 4 slots, no posts since April 2009)
    A new record (11) for the number of members retaining their position in the Top 50 list:
    mad jew (#1 nine times in a row)
    Eidorian (#4 four times in a row)
    jessica. (#5 three times in a row)
    iGary (#13 three times in a row)
    iBlue (#17 three times in a row)
    Blue Velvet (#10 twice in a row)
    robbieduncan (#11 twice in a row)
    bartelby (#12 twice in a row)
    edesignuk (#14 twice in a row)
    dukebound85 (#33 twice in a row)
    eyelikeart (#45 twice in a row)
    skunk missed the Top 50 by 150 posts (0.83 posts per day, the equivalent of 1 post every 1.2 days). Give him credit for consistency; last time he missed the Top 50 by 136 posts.
    Teh Don Ditty missed the Top 50 by 312 posts (1.72 posts per day).​


    Changes in the Top 10 and Top 25

    A few days ago, while mkrishnan was busy in the real world, Doctor Q snuck by him to take the #2 slot, dropping mkrishnan to #3. See screenshot below.

    mad jew hasn't posted since September 4, 2008 but is still 3296 posts ahead of #2 Doctor Q. At his current post rate it'll take Doctor Q over a year to catch up, in late 2012.

    The other change is the ascent of rdowns, moving up 3 slots from #9 to #6, passing Abstract, Mr. Anderson and jsw, who dropped from #6-7-8 to #7-8-9. Those three were in his sights since he passed Blue Velvet six months ago.

    Joining the Top 25: Hellhammer, GGJstudios, Applejuiced

    Dropping out of the Top 25: devilot, MacNut, sushi


    Post counts

    robbieduncan became the 11th member to reach 20,000 or more posts.

    Together, the Top 50 members have made a total of 868,380 posts at MacRumors (an average of 17,368 each). If you read 1 post every 10 seconds, 24 hours a day, you could read all of those posts in 100 days, 12 hours, and 10 minutes.


    Posts in the last 6 months

    I keep an eye out for up-and-coming top posters so I rarely encounter a Top 50 poster for whom I don't have a post count from 6 months prior. Nobody escaped my radar this time so I'm able to report on the 6-month post counts of all Top 50 members.

    Highest number of posts in 6 months: GGJstudios, 6262 posts, 34.6 posts per day
    Next-highest
    Hellhammer, 4056 posts, 22.4 posts per day

    Applejuiced, 3969 posts, 21.9 posts/day

    They were the only members with over 3000 posts in 6 months.​
    Three members had post counts between 2000 and 3000 in 6 months:
    balamw (2364 posts)
    Surely (2224 posts)
    miles01110 (2050 posts)
    Fewest posts among those who posted: jsw, with 2 posts.


    My Predictions from 6 months ago

    Here are my projections from 6 months ago, predicting today's rankings.

    I was correct on 10 out of 10 predictions for the Top 10, but not their order.

    I was correct on 49 out of 50 predictions for the Top 50, missing only balamw's appearance in the list.

    Six months ago I predicted that it would take 11,767 posts to make the Top 50. The actual number turned out to be 11,391.


    Excluded members and posts

    MacRumors "bots" (members Macrumors, MacBytes, and DailyTunes) are excluded from my tracking. Members in temporary "time-out" status are still included but not members who have been banned or have asked to have their accounts canceled. That's why the number of members who join the Top 50 is sometimes smaller than the number who are listed as dropping out of the Top 50.

    If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #26.


    The new Top 8

    madjew-doctorq-mkrishnan.jpg
     
  4. miles01110 macrumors Core

    miles01110

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Location:
    The Ivory Tower (I'm not coming down)
    #4
    I'd be interested to know what GGJ's rank would be if you excluded the "This should answer most, if not all, of your battery questions" post.
     
  5. Eidorian macrumors Penryn

    Eidorian

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2005
    Location:
    Indianapolis
  6. Tomorrow macrumors 604

    Tomorrow

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2008
    Location:
    Always a day away
    #6
    I'm STILL laughing.
     
  7. Eidorian macrumors Penryn

    Eidorian

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2005
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    #7
    In before "GGJstudios" is becoming an all to common occurrence.
     
  8. Hellhammer Moderator

    Hellhammer

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2008
    Location:
    Finland
    #8
    I'm surprised that I was actually the second in the most posts in 6 months category. Been busy lately so I was expecting to be like the fifth or something.
     
  9. robbieduncan Moderator emeritus

    robbieduncan

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Location:
    London
    #9
    Despite a good effort I failed to overtake Blue Velvet. Looks like I should be good for 9th in 6 months time. Just outside this newly introduced and therefore highly coveted Top 8.

    Of course I may suffer the infamous Moderator Burnout and seclude myself in the West Wing.
     
  10. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    #10

    Add the MRoogle ones to that. :D
     
  11. Jaffa Cake macrumors Core

    Jaffa Cake

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2004
    Location:
    The City of Culture, Englandshire
    #11
    I seem to be perpetually hovering just outside the top 20. This is okay though, as it means you all know where to find me should I be needed.
     
  12. Tilpots macrumors 601

    Tilpots

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Location:
    Carolina Beach, NC
    #12
    You could be lost on a glacier for 4 months and still make the top 5!:D
     
  13. rhett7660 macrumors G4

    rhett7660

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2008
    Location:
    Sunny, Southern California
    #13
    What I find so funny is you have a member who hasn't posted since 2008 and He/She STILL has this size of a lead. Amazing.
     
  14. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #14
    I would have shown the Top 10 but my screenshot was only tall enough for 8. Blame it on those big avatars and the lack of a 40" Apple Cinema Display!
     
  15. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2004
    #15
    By doing very little over the last two years. A clearer example of celebrating mediocrity would be difficult to find.

    Mr Downs is always welcome to get one over on me.

    Have no fear on that score... although whether it qualifies as 'good', is a highly relative term.

    My seventh anniversary to-the-very-day-of-joining-MacRumors post. To all those who are enjoying a holiday on the 4th of July, have a cold beer in the sun for me.
     
  16. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    #16
    i'm surprised i didn't fall further down than just one slot, i definitely haven't been around all that much to maintain any sort of decent posting rate.
     
  17. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #17
    Up one position. Mmmmm. :)

    Not bad, considering a 2-week time-out. :eek:
     
  18. stridemat Moderator

    stridemat

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2008
    Location:
    UK
    #18
    If you hadn't poked your own eyes out by then. Bunch of Spammers.

    Just what I was thinking. You are your TO's hampering your post count.

    Doctor Q, are you able to take into account PRSI posts? Would be interesting to see.
     
  19. Melrose Suspended

    Melrose

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2007
    #19
    Wow that came around fast.

    It seems like only six months ago we had the last statistics! :D

    EDIT: I remember when Abstract was a 601. Oh, those were the days!
     
  20. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #20
    6-Month Projections

    Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July 2011

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jan 4, 2012     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
      1   mad jew         32,206    1      0
      2   Doctor Q        30,281    2      0
      3   mkrishnan       28,967    3      0
      4   jessica.        27,950    5     +1
      5   Eidorian        27,347    4     -1
      6   rdowns          25,294    6      0
      7   GGJstudios      24,896   18    +11
      8   Abstract        23,858    7     -1
      9   Hellhammer      23,191   15     +6
     10   robbieduncan    23,106   11     +1
     11   Mr. Anderson    22,550    8     -3
     12   jsw             22,134    9     -3
     13   Blue Velvet     22,083   10     -3
     14   Applejuiced     20,880   22     +8
     15   bartelby        19,759   12     -3
     16   iGary           19,727   13     -3
     17   edesignuk       19,252   14     -3
     18   iBlue           18,999   17     -1
     19   Dagless         18,838   20     +1
     20   PlaceofDis      18,738   16     -4
     21   ~Shard~         18,282   19     -2
     22   DoFoT9          17,600   21     -1
     23   Jaffa Cake      17,354   23      0
     24   -aggie-         17,289   26     +2
     25   wdlove          16,571   24     -1
    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
    Rank  Jan 4, 2012     Posts   Rank  Rank
    ----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
     26   yellow          16,116   25     -1
     27   MacNut          15,964   28     +1
     28   MacDawg         15,651   35     +7
     29   alphaod         15,629   30     +1
     30   devilot         15,598   27     -3
     31   sushi           15,576   29     -2
     32   WildCowboy      15,439   31     -1
     33   miles01110      15,301   40     +7
     34   dukebound85     14,974   33     -1
     35   iJohnHenry      14,724   37     +2
     36   Sun Baked       14,662   32     -4
     37   Nermal          14,230   36     -1
     38   balamw          14,028   49    +11
     39   Surely          14,015   47     +8
     40   bousozoku       13,998   34     -6
     41   twoodcc         13,904   38     -3
     42   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,820   39     -3
     43   leekohler       13,556   41     -2
     44   maflynn         12,933  ---    ---
     45   xUKHCx          12,798   42     -3
     46   CanadaRAM       12,363   43     -3
     47   Consultant      12,282  ---    ---
     48   IJ Reilly       12,268   44     -4
     49   r.j.s           12,246   46     -3
     50   yg17            12,221   50      0
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection Jan 4, 2012 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
    3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2011 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
     
  21. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #21
    Comments on the 6-Month Projections

    I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding forums that don't count) and post rates over the last 6 months. This chart is the primary purpose of this thread, to make projections and see how they turn out. The results shown here are only estimates because members' posting habits evolve over time.


    Changed members

    A mere two members are projected to join the Top 50, both near the bottom of the list:
    maflynn (#44)
    Consultant (#47)

    Two members near the bottom of the current Top 50 are projected to drop off the list in the next 6 months:
    eyelikeart (currently #45)
    Queso (currently #48)

    Member closest to but not in the Top 50:

    eyelikeart missed staying in the Top 50 by 327 posts (1.81 posts/day)

    Next closest:
    skunk -- by 341 posts (1.88 posts/day) -- in the projections 6 months ago he missed by an even closer margin of 167
    Queso -- by 428 posts (2.36 posts/day)
    No other members were within 500 posts of the Top 50.

    emw and Teh Don Ditty both missed by the same number of posts: 993 posts​


    Changes at the top

    According to these projections, jessica. will pass Eidorian in the next 6 month, moving into the #4 spot behind mad jew, Doctor Q, and mkrishnan. High poster GGJstudios will join the Top 10, dropping Abstract to #8, right in front of Top 10 newcomer Hellhammer. With robbieduncan also moving into the Top 10 (the last slot), Mr. Anderson, jsw, and Blue Velvet are pushed out, each dropping 3 slots (from #8-9-10) to #11-12-13).

    Blue Velvet and jsw have traded slots in the past but are still very close in post count, with Blue Velvet projected to be ahead by 50 posts out of about 22,000.


    Calling the race

    The gaps among Top 20 members are expanding, with more gaps over 1000 than ever before.

    Largest margin of victory: Eidorian (#5) over rdowns (#6) by 2053 posts. They had exactly the same distinction in the projections 6 months ago.
    Next largest:
    mad jew over Doctor Q by 1925 posts
    Doctor Q over mkrishnan by 1314 posts
    Blue Velvet over Applejuiced by 1203 posts
    Applejuiced over bartelby by 1121 posts
    GGJstudios over Abstract by 1039 posts
    mkrishnan over jessica. by 1017 posts
    No other margin is more than 1,000.

    Smallest margin of victory: balamw over Surely by 13 posts
    Next smallest:
    Consultant over IJ Reilly by 14 posts

    Surely over bousozoku by 17 posts

    Least interesting stat: Dagless is projected to beat PlaceofDis by exactly 100 posts (18,838 to 18,738)

    Highest projected rise in rank: a two-way tie:
    GGJstudios, up 11 slots from #18 to #7

    balamw, up 11 slots from #38 to #49
    Next highest:
    Applejuiced, up 8 slots to #14
    Surely, up 8 slots to #39
    MacDawg, up 7 slots to #28
    miles01110, up 7 slots to #33
    Hellhammer, up 6 slots to #9
    All other increases are by 2 or fewer slots.

    Highest projected loss in rank: bousozoku, down 6 slots to #34
    Next highest:
    PlaceofDis, Sun Baked, and IJ Reilly, each down 4 slots
    A record number of members are projected to drop 3 slots:
    Mr. Anderson, jsw, Blue Velvet, bartelby, iGary, edesignuk, devilot, twoodcc, Mitthrawnuruodo, xUKHCx, CanadaRAM, r.j.s
    Other than the Top 3, only these 2 members are projected to hold their current rank:
    rdowns (#6)
    Jaffa Cake (#23)


    Excluded and inactive members

    If the MacBytes bot had been eligible, it would have ranked #28.

    10 members (20%) of the projected Top 50 have made fewer than 10 posts in the last 6 months:
    mad jew (#1)
    Mr. Anderson (#11)
    jsw (#12)
    edesignuk (#17)
    ~Shard~ (#21)
    wdlove (#25) -- still in the Top 25 after mostly retiring in 2005!
    devilot (#30)
    Sun Baked (#36)
    bousozoku (#40)
    IJ Reilly (#48)
    Oddity: Sun Baked made 7 posts in the last 6 months, but lost 7 posts from older threads that were deleted or moved to non-counted forums, so he started and ended the 6-month period with 14,662 posts.


    Post counts

    According to these projections, by January 4 there will have been 911,449 total posts by the Top 50 members, 45,746 more posts than those 50 members have today. The average Top 50 member will have 18,229 posts in all. I hope they have 45,746 interesting things to say over the second half of the year!

    It is projected to take 11,895 posts to make the Top 50 (currently it's 11,391).

    Doctor Q is projected to be the 2nd member to reach 30,000 posts, unless he comes to his senses in time.

    Every user with 12,000 or more posts is projected to make the Top 50.

    A baker's dozen of members are projected to have 11,000 or more posts without making the Top 50:
    eyelikeart, skunk, Queso, jav6454, nanofrog, emw, Teh Don Ditty, Rower_CPU, arn, dejo, Peace, Chundles, wrldwzrd89


    Useless Trivia

    Member whose projected post count is closest to their member number: mad jew (user #31961) with 32,206 posts (difference of 245). Since he never posts and nobody else has hit the sweet spot, he keeps winning in this category!
    Second closest: ~Shard~ (user #17437) with 18,282 posts (difference of 845). He finally edged out Nermal, whose post count of 14,230 finally outgrew his member number of 13233 by 997.

    Least close: -aggie- (user #329797) with 17,289 posts (difference of 312,508) and still a long way to go. maflynn (user #311274) is next in line with 12,933 (difference of 298,341).


    Prime movers

    My habit of giving a prime rib dinner to 100 friends and family members of every Top 50 member whose projected post count is a prime number is getting very expensive. Instead of one winner as in the past we have four prime winners:
    bartelby with 19,759 posts -- prime!
    iGary with 19,727 posts -- prime!
    alphaod with 15,629 posts -- prime!
    WildCowboy with 15,439 posts -- prime!

    Note to winners: You must pick up your dinner in person in Los Angeles by midnight tonite.

    The Apple Pi award goes to dukebound85 for having the slot-number to length-of-user-name ratio that is closest to pi. However, it wasn't very close: 34/11 = 3.09. Instead of being the winner in this category I consider dukebound85 to be the least loser.

    Each 6 months the member in slot 42 of the projected Top 50 is declared the Oracle Who Knows the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything. Congratulations, Mitthrawnuruodo!
     
  22. Jaffa Cake macrumors Core

    Jaffa Cake

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2004
    Location:
    The City of Culture, Englandshire
    #22
    Still perpetually hovering just outside the top 20, then. :p
     
  23. GGJstudios macrumors Westmere

    GGJstudios

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    #23
    Of course, you'd also have to eliminate all the "My MBP Battery stopped charging at 98% - is this normal?" threads that get posted. :D
     
  24. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #24
    "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

    Computed by Doctor Q in July, 2011

    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
    Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
    ----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
      1   simsaladimbamba   25.94   ---    ---   ---    ---
      2   GGJstudios        25.14    18    +16     6     +4
      3   Hellhammer        23.14    15    +12     1     -2
      4   Applejuiced       21.05    22    +18     5     +1
      5   -aggie-           15.42    26    +21     2     -3
      6   jessica.          13.66     5     -1     4     -2
      7   maflynn           13.63   ---    ---     9     +2
      8   rdowns            11.68     6     -2     8      0
      9   Surely            11.53    47    +38    10     +1
     10   MacDawg            9.89    35    +25    11     +1
     11   miles01110         9.74    40    +29    18     +7
     12   balamw             9.52    49    +37    27    +15
     13   robbieduncan       9.39    11     -2    12     -1
     14   DoFoT9             9.37    21     +7     7     -7
     15   *LTD*              7.97   ---    ---   ---    ---
     16   jav6454            7.91   ---    ---    13     -3
     17   KnightWRX          7.54   ---    ---   ---    ---
     18   Consultant         7.47   ---    ---    24     +6
     19   thelatinist        7.44   ---    ---   ---    ---
     20   iJohnHenry         7.38    37    +17    15     -5
     21   Doctor Q           7.34     2    -19    20     -1
     22   nanofrog           6.65   ---    ---    17     -5
     23   samcraig           6.58   ---    ---   ---    ---
     24   Eidorian           6.24     4    -20    14    -10
     25   appleguy123        6.21   ---    ---   ---    ---
    Code:
    Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
    Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
    ----  --------------  --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
     26   dhlizard           5.96   ---    ---   ---    ---
     27   SchneiderMan       5.67   ---    ---   ---    ---
     28   dukebound85        5.56    33     +5    19     -9
     29   dejo               5.37   ---    ---    32     +3
     30   yg17               5.32    50    +20    23     -7
     31   alphaod            5.26    30     -1    16    -15
     32   cmaier             5.24   ---    ---   ---    ---
     33   AidenShaw          5.23   ---    ---    39     +6
     34   ucfgrad93          5.18   ---    ---   ---    ---
     35   leekohler          5.11    41     +6    26     -9
     36   Melrose            5.08   ---    ---   ---    ---
     37   SnowLeopard2008    4.89   ---    ---   ---    ---
     38   r.j.s              4.78    46     +8    21    -17
     39   dmr727             4.77   ---    ---    25    -14
     40   kdarling           4.71   ---    ---   ---    ---
     41   redwarrior         4.63   ---    ---   ---    ---
     42   Jaffa Cake         4.60    23    -19    31    -11
     43   stridemat          4.56   ---    ---   ---    ---
     44   HLdan              4.53   ---    ---   ---    ---
     45   Rodimus Prime      4.20   ---    ---   ---    ---
     46   TwinCities Dan     4.18   ---    ---   ---    ---
     47   iBlue              3.93    17    -30    29    -18
     48   sushi              3.92    29    -19    22    -26
     49   Dagless            3.92    20    -29    36    -13
     50   daneoni            3.90   ---    ---   ---    ---
    Columns:
    1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
    2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
    3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
    4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2011, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
    5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
    6. Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2011, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
    7. Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
     
  25. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #25
    Comments on the End of Time Projections

    Compared to the current Top 50 (see Chart #1) the Top 50 changes quite a bit when projected infinitely into the future. This chart starts with the assumptions that all members will live forever and continue to post at their recent rates. This won't be the case but this still gives us an idea of where post rates stand now and where they could eventually lead.

    The Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever. The Last EOT and Delta EOT columns allow us to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now, since these tend to be a better basis for comparison than looking at current ranks.


    At the top

    simsaladimbamba, who joined only last November, tops the list this time, taking over the #1 spot from Hellhammer.

    We've had members making more than 30 weighted posts/day in the past but none able to sustain it. There are none over 30 now, but four members making over 20 weighted posts/day. Behind simsaladimbamba are GGJstudios (both making over 25 weighted posts/day), Hellhammer (down only slightly from 23.88 to 23.14 weighted posts/day), and Applejuiced in at 21.05 weighted posts/day.

    Remember that weighted posts means a computed rate that balances past posting habits with current posting habits. However, since simsaladimbamba wasn't on my radar 6 months ago, the weighted rate is the rate-since-joining (7 months ago). The same is true for other users I haven't previous tracked.

    simsaladimbamba's post rate is equivalent to one post every 18 minutes and 30 seconds for 8 hours/day.

    Last time there was a significant gap after the Top 5. This time it's after the Top 4. There are no posters with rates between 16 and 21 weighted posts/day, but there are five with rates from 11 to 16:
    -aggie- (15.42)
    jessica. (13.66)
    maflynn (13.63)
    rdowns (11.68)
    Surely (11.53)
    These are all names we've seen before, but Abstract and mkrishnan are notably absent.

    Despite the high rates of the most-frequent posters, it takes only 4 posts per day to make the end-of-time Top 50.


    Eating dust

    Leads by weighted post rate always show the widest disparity at the top of the list:

    Biggest post rate lead: Applejuiced (#4) over -aggie- (#5) by 5.63 weighted posts/day. That's a bigger lead than the biggest lead 6 months ago, which was also held by Applejuiced.
    Next biggest:
    Hellhammer (#3) over Applejuiced (#4) by 2.10 weighted posts/day

    GGJstudios (#2) over Hellhammer (#3) by 1.99 weighted posts/day

    maflynn (#7) over rdowns (#8) by 1.95 weighted posts/day

    -aggie- (#5) over jessica. (#6) by 1.76 weighted posts/day

    Surely (#9) over MacDawg (#10) by 1.65 weighted posts/day

    DoFoT9 (#14) over *LTD* (#15) by 1.40 weighted posts/day
    All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.


    Photo finishes

    It's amazing how close the close races are!

    Closest post rate finish: sushi over Dagless by 0.0012 weighted posts/day (0.5 posts per year!)

    Dagless was the winner in this category last time. With just one more post in the last 6 months Dagless would have edge out sushi!
    Next closest:
    r.j.s over dmr727 by 0.009 weighted posts/day (3.3 posts per year)

    cmaier over AidenShaw by 0.011 weighted posts/day (4.0 posts per year)

    Dagless over daneoni by 0.012 weighted posts/day (4.4 posts per year)

    iBlue over sushi by 0.013 weighted posts/day (4.7 posts per year)

    Just missed the Top 50: Small White Car, by 0.013 weighted posts/day, or 1 post every 76 days.

    Cave Man and Abstract are next in line.​


    Changed Top 50 membership

    26 (52%) of the Top 50 posters at the End of Time are not in the current Top 50. Their post rates will eventually overtake all those with higher post counts but lower post rates. You may not know all of their names now, but eventually you will bow to them (or point at them and snicker). :cool:

    Members of the End of Time Top 25 who are not in the current Top 50:
    simsaladimbamba (#1)
    maflynn -- #7
    *LTD* -- #15
    jav6454 -- #16
    KnightWRX -- #17
    Consultant -- #18
    thelatinist -- #19
    nanofrog -- #22
    samcraig -- #23
    appleguy123 -- #25

    Active posters who are in the current Top 50 but didn't make the End of Time Top 50:
    Abstract
    Blue Velvet
    twoodcc
    MacNut
    xUKHCx
    Nermal
    Queso
    iGary
    Mitthrawnuruodo
    WildCowboy
    yellow
    PlaceofDis


    From here to eternity

    Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:

    Highest projected rise in rank: Surely, up 38 slots
    Next highest (those up 20 or more slots):
    balamw, up 37 slots

    miles01110, up 29 slots

    MacDawg, up 25 slots

    -aggie-, up 21 slots

    yg17, up 20 slots

    Highest projected loss in rank: iBlue, down 30 slots
    Next highest (those down 20 or more slots)
    Dagless, down 29 slots

    Eidorian, down 20 slots

    No members are projected to retain their current rank, not even the amazingly consistent rdowns. It's just not likely that a user will rank the same by both post count and posting rate.

    Only two users managed to stay within 1 slot of their current rank: jessica. (for the 2nd time in row!) and alphaod


    Changes in the Top 50 End of Time

    This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now. These measures help us identify newly arriving champs.

    In the End of Time projections we find 18 new members, three times as many as last time:
    simsaladimbamba (#1, and the only new arrival to reach the Top 10)
    *LTD* (#15)
    KnightWRX (#17)
    thelatinist (#19)
    samcraig (#23)
    appleguy123 (#25)
    dhlizard (#26)
    SchneiderMan (#27)
    cmaier (#32)
    ucfgrad93 (#34)
    Melrose (#36)
    SnowLeopard2008 (#37)
    kdarling (#40)
    redwarrior (#41)
    stridemat (#43)
    HLdan (#44)
    Rodimus Prime (#45)
    TwinCities Dan (#46)

    The 18 new members above bump these active members off the End of Time list:
    Abstract
    flopticalcube
    TuffLuffJimmy
    NT1440
    MisterMe
    skunk
    Blue Velvet
    Kilamite
    twoodcc
    MacNut
    xUKHCx
    angelwatt
    SilentPanda
    Queso (no posts since February)

    Highest projected rise in rank: balamw, up 15 slots -- the winner in this category twice in a row
    Next highest:
    miles01110, up 7 slots

    Consultant and AidenShaw, each up 6 slots

    Highest projected loss in rank while staying on the End of Time Top 50: sushi, down 26 slots
    Next highest:
    iBlue, down 18 slots

    r.j.s, down 17 slots

    alphaod, down 15 slots

    dmr727, down 14 slots

    Dagless, down 13 slots

    Jaffa Cake, down 11 slots

    Eidorian, down 10 slots

    Only one members is projected to retain their current rank:
    rdowns (#8) -- see comment above about his consistency!


    Post counts

    Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, Doctor Q has the most current posts (28,943). mkrishnan had this distinction the preceding 3 times.

    Among the same group, TwinCities Dan has the fewest current posts (4760), meaning that he's not even a "macrumors 601" yet. Neither is samcraig. dhlizard will be there in 2 posts!

    Here are 9 users who wouldn't make a Top 150 list as of today based on post counts, but will eventually rise to the highest echelon -- the Top 50:
    simsaladimbamba (#1)
    thelatinist (#19)
    samcraig (#23)
    appleguy123 (#25)
    dhlizard (#26)
    SnowLeopard2008 (#37)
    redwarrior (#41)
    stridemat (#43)
    TwinCities Dan (#46)
    The number of combined posts per minute for the entire Top 50 dropped from one post every 3 minutes 29 seconds to one post every 3 minutes 32 seconds. We're making other users wait an extra 3 seconds to read our brilliant thoughts!

    The Top 50 End of Time forum members have combined to make 598,843 posts to date, accounting for 4.7% of the total 11.7 million forum posts. That's noticably lower then 6 months ago, when it was 5.9%. The explanation is that many new members with lower post counts have joined the end-of-time ranks.


    Club memberships

    We once again have 9 members in the IVG (Initial Vowel Group). User names beginning with the letter A still dominent:
    -aggie-, AidenShaw, alphaod, appleguy123, Applejuiced, Eidorian, iBlue, iJohnHenry, ucfgrad93

    The MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) still has 7 members. These members have either 3 letters in their user name or 3 capital letters in a mixed-case user name:
    *LTD*+, dmr727, DoFoT9, GGJstudios, jav6454, r.j.s, TwinCities Dan+

    + = new to the club​

    The Numb Club (users whose user name ends with a digit) has grown from 7 to 9 members:
    appleguy123+, dmr727, DoFoT9, dukebound85, jav6454, miles01110, SnowLeopard2008+, ucfgrad93+, yg17

    + = new to the club​


    Least useful trivia

    Based on the data from 6 months ago, I predicted that the Top 50 would reach one million posts on February 10, 2013. Based on the lower total posts this time, the date has been postponed for over a year, to March 12, 2014. Either way, it's after the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar cycle, so the world will have ceased to exist anyway.


    Congratulations to the users who earned special mention in this thread, to those who made these Top 50 lists, and especially to those who didn't! :)
     

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