Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2014

Apple fanboy · Jul 4, 2014

You mean being in the top 50 might mean your social life is a bit lacking...

I spend a lot of time in the house (due to an autistic daughter) so MacRumors keeps me sane.

Doctor Q · Jul 4, 2014

"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2014

Code:

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
 1    maflynn           23.07     7     +6     1      0
 2    Weaselboy         12.98   ---    ---     7     +5
 3    SandboxGeneral    12.44    49    +46     3      0
 4    GGJstudios        10.12     1     -3     2     -2
 5    Applejuiced        9.38     5      0     4     -1
 6    C DM               9.27   ---    ---   ---    ---
 7    Rogifan            8.86   ---    ---    11     +4
 8    Intell             8.46    41    +33     9     +1
 9    Macman45           8.25   ---    ---     6     -3
10    simsaladimbamba    8.11    14     +4     5     -5
11    MacRumorUser       7.31    35    +24    13     +2
12    Shrink             6.95   ---    ---    18     +6
13    samcraig           6.64   ---    ---    12     -1
14    Renzatic           6.47   ---    ---    14      0
15    mattopotamus       6.31   ---    ---     8     -7
16    cynics             6.26   ---    ---   ---    ---
17    ucfgrad93          5.78   ---    ---    17      0
18    GoCubsGo           5.35     2    -16    10     -8
19    gnasher729         5.30   ---    ---    16     -3
20    AppleScruff1       5.15   ---    ---   ---    ---
21    Bear               5.02   ---    ---    15     -6
22    alphaod            4.93    17     -5    29     +7
23    roadbloc           4.58   ---    ---    28     +5
24    charlituna         4.18   ---    ---    21     -3
25    Huntn              4.17   ---    ---    45    +20

Code:

Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta  Last  Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank   EOT    EOT
----  --------------- --------  ----  -----  ----  -----
26    thekev             3.99   ---    ---   ---    ---
27    Night Spring       3.98   ---    ---    23     -4
28    kdarling           3.82   ---    ---    37     +9
29    jav6454            3.78    48    +19    19    -10
30    Peace              3.76    31     +1    24     -6
31    dhlizard           3.55   ---    ---    26     -5
32    Chupa Chupa        3.51   ---    ---    32      0
33    BaldiMac           3.50   ---    ---    34     +1
34    dejo               3.44    50    +16    31     -3
35    balamw             3.29    32     -3    25    -10
36    chown33            3.28   ---    ---   ---    ---
37    KPOM               3.25   ---    ---    20    -17
38    OllyW              3.03   ---    ---    33     -5
39    blueroom           2.97   ---    ---    41     +2
40    theSeb             2.88   ---    ---    27    -13
41    old-wiz            2.88   ---    ---    30    -11
42    rhett7660          2.85   ---    ---    47     +5
43    cube               2.75   ---    ---    46     +3
44    AidenShaw          2.74   ---    ---    42     -2
45    darngooddesign     2.72   ---    ---    22    -23
46    ChrisA             2.68   ---    ---    38     -8
47    MacNut             2.68    27    -20   ---    ---
48    annk               2.61   ---    ---    35    -13
49    stridemat          2.39   ---    ---    36    -13
50    Sky Blue           2.39   ---    ---   ---    ---

Columns:

Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See the definition of weighted rate that I've used since July 2006.
Cur Rank = current rank as of July 2014 (Chart 1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2014, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

These are the true "top posters" at MacRumors since they currently make the most posts over any given time period.

Observations

maflynn's overall post rate, last-6-months post rate, and weighted posts rates have all increased since 6 months ago. He again tops the End-of-Time Top 50.
With weighted rates of over 12 posts per day, Weaselboy shows up at slot #2 and SandboxGeneral moves up an almost-unbeatable 46 slots, from #49 on the current Top 50 to #3 on the End-of-Time Top 50.
GGJstudios' overall post rate has slowed only a bit, but his recent post rate has dropped from over 9 posts/day to under 5 posts/day, and recent post rates are a large factor in weighted rates. That leaves him in slot #4, but still with a weighted rate of over 10 posts/day.
The minimum post rate required for the End-of-Time Top 50 has dropped from 2.7 posts/day to 2.4 posts/day. Plenty of opportunity!
Biggest increase in rank from the previous End-of-Time rankings: Huntn, up 20 slots. Second place: kdarling, up 9 slots.
Biggest drop in rank from the previous End-of-Time rankings: darngooddesign, down 23. Second place: KPOM, down 17.
Of the Top 50 posters, MacNut has been a member the longest (since January 2002). Chupa Chupa, formerly the leader in that statistic, is now second. mattopotamus joined most recently, and the same was true for the End-of-Time rankings 6 months ago.
darngooddesign is on the End-of-Time Top 50 despite having made only 91 posts in the last 6 months, based on a historically higher post rate: a 3.4 posts/day overall average, despite a rate of only 0.5 posts/day recently.

S.B.G · Jul 4, 2014

With weighted rates of over 12 posts per day, Weaselboy shows up at slot #2 and SandboxGeneral moves up an almost-unbeatable 46 slots, from #49 on the current Top 50 to #3 on the End-of-Time Top 50.

"Almost-unbeatable," I like the sound of that!

The Doctor11 · Jul 4, 2014

Ok now this is a challenge! So about how many post will I need in 6 months to get on this list? Im getting on this list.

S.B.G · Jul 4, 2014

The Doctor11 said:
Ok now this is a challenge! So about how many post will I need in 6 months to get on this list? Im getting on this list.

A lot. I hope you don't post just to make posts, which is a rules violation called post padding.

The Doctor11 · Jul 4, 2014

SandboxGeneral said:
A lot. I hope you don't post just to make posts, which is a rules violation called post padding. Image

Rule violations

! There will be none of that.

S.B.G · Jul 4, 2014

The Doctor11 said:
Rule violations! There will be none of that.

Overposting. Making the same post many times, making multiple pointless posts in the same thread, making numerous posts with no real content, or posting for the purpose of gaining a higher post count.

We hope not.

dukebound85 · Jul 4, 2014

Cool stats as always.

I know I have dropped off big time in the last year or so in regards to posting but is interesting to see so many top 50 with 0 rates

Apple fanboy · Jul 5, 2014

Doctor Q said:
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2014

Code:

Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT ---- --------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- ----- 1 maflynn 23.07 7 +6 1 0 2 Weaselboy 12.98 --- --- 7 +5 3 SandboxGeneral 12.44 49 +46 3 0 4 GGJstudios 10.12 1 -3 2 -2 5 Applejuiced 9.38 5 0 4 -1 6 C DM 9.27 --- --- --- --- 7 Rogifan 8.86 --- --- 11 +4 8 Intell 8.46 41 +33 9 +1 9 Macman45 8.25 --- --- 6 -3 10 simsaladimbamba 8.11 14 +4 5 -5 11 MacRumorUser 7.31 35 +24 13 +2 12 Shrink 6.95 --- --- 18 +6 13 samcraig 6.64 --- --- 12 -1 14 Renzatic 6.47 --- --- 14 0 15 mattopotamus 6.31 --- --- 8 -7 16 cynics 6.26 --- --- --- --- 17 ucfgrad93 5.78 --- --- 17 0 18 GoCubsGo 5.35 2 -16 10 -8 19 gnasher729 5.30 --- --- 16 -3 20 AppleScruff1 5.15 --- --- --- --- 21 Bear 5.02 --- --- 15 -6 22 alphaod 4.93 17 -5 29 +7 23 roadbloc 4.58 --- --- 28 +5 24 charlituna 4.18 --- --- 21 -3 25 Huntn 4.17 --- --- 45 +20

Code:

Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT ---- --------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- ----- 26 thekev 3.99 --- --- --- --- 27 Night Spring 3.98 --- --- 23 -4 28 kdarling 3.82 --- --- 37 +9 29 jav6454 3.78 48 +19 19 -10 30 Peace 3.76 31 +1 24 -6 31 dhlizard 3.55 --- --- 26 -5 32 Chupa Chupa 3.51 --- --- 32 0 33 BaldiMac 3.50 --- --- 34 +1 34 dejo 3.44 50 +16 31 -3 35 balamw 3.29 32 -3 25 -10 36 chown33 3.28 --- --- --- --- 37 KPOM 3.25 --- --- 20 -17 38 OllyW 3.03 --- --- 33 -5 39 blueroom 2.97 --- --- 41 +2 40 theSeb 2.88 --- --- 27 -13 41 old-wiz 2.88 --- --- 30 -11 42 rhett7660 2.85 --- --- 47 +5 43 cube 2.75 --- --- 46 +3 44 AidenShaw 2.74 --- --- 42 -2 45 darngooddesign 2.72 --- --- 22 -23 46 ChrisA 2.68 --- --- 38 -8 47 MacNut 2.68 27 -20 --- --- 48 annk 2.61 --- --- 35 -13 49 stridemat 2.39 --- --- 36 -13 50 Sky Blue 2.39 --- --- --- ---

Columns:

Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.

Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.

Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See the definition of weighted rate that I've used since July 2006.

Cur Rank = current rank as of July 2014 (Chart 1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.

Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.

Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (January 2014, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.

Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.

These are the true "top posters" at MacRumors since they currently make the most posts over any given time period.

Observations

maflynn's overall post rate, last-6-months post rate, and weighted posts rates have all increased since 6 months ago. He again tops the End-of-Time Top 50.

With weighted rates of over 12 posts per day, Weaselboy shows up at slot #2 and SandboxGeneral moves up an almost-unbeatable 46 slots, from #49 on the current Top 50 to #3 on the End-of-Time Top 50.

GGJstudios' overall post rate has slowed only a bit, but his recent post rate has dropped from over 9 posts/day to under 5 posts/day, and recent post rates are a large factor in weighted rates. That leaves him in slot #4, but still with a weighted rate of over 10 posts/day.

The minimum post rate required for the End-of-Time Top 50 has dropped from 2.7 posts/day to 2.4 posts/day. Plenty of opportunity!

Biggest increase in rank from the previous End-of-Time rankings: Huntn, up 20 slots. Second place: kdarling, up 9 slots.

Biggest drop in rank from the previous End-of-Time rankings: darngooddesign, down 23. Second place: KPOM, down 17.

Of the Top 50 posters, MacNut has been a member the longest (since January 2002). Chupa Chupa, formerly the leader in that statistic, is now second. mattopotamus joined most recently, and the same was true for the End-of-Time rankings 6 months ago.

darngooddesign is on the End-of-Time Top 50 despite having made only 91 posts in the last 6 months, based on a historically higher post rate: a 3.4 posts/day overall average, despite a rate of only 0.5 posts/day recently.

This is probably the chart I struggle to understand the most. I currently have a post average of 5.29 per day. That should put me at 20th on the chart. Is the 5.29 calculated since I joined until now or just over a set period? I think you might have mentioned this before, but is there a minimum post total to qualify for these charts.

jav6454 · Jul 5, 2014

Apple fanboy said:
This is probably the chart I struggle to understand the most. I currently have a post average of 5.29 per day. That should put me at 20th on the chart. Is the 5.29 calculated since I joined until now or just over a set period? I think you might have mentioned this before, but is there a minimum post total to qualify for these charts.

It is not calculated based on what you have as a current post rate. It is 50% past 6 months and the other 50% is divided into the previous two years in a weighted fashion.

So to be in the "Top 50 End of Time" you have to be active for a bout 2 years at the same or higher post rate.

That said, I dropped down significantly from last time. Ugh.... I hate that. Time to post it up. Now not through rule violation, but through helpful insights. MacBook Forum... here I come again.

Apple fanboy · Jul 5, 2014

jav6454 said:
It is not calculated based on what you have as a current post rate. It is 50% past 6 months and the other 50% is divided into the previous two years in a weighted fashion.

So to be in the "Top 50 End of Time" you have to be active for a bout 2 years at the same or higher post rate.

That said, I dropped down significantly from last time. Ugh.... I hate that. Time to post it up. Now not through rule violation, but through helpful insights. MacBook Forum... here I come again.

So this time next year then? And yes of course not posts for posting sake. I'd say my posts are 40% digital photography, 40% community discussion, 10% everything else.
Now that would be a cool statistic. Top 50 posters % by sub forum.

jav6454 · Jul 5, 2014

Apple fanboy said:
So this time next year then? And yes of course not posts for posting sake. I'd say my posts are 40% digital photography, 40% community discussion, 10% everything else.
Now that would be a cool statistic. Top 50 posters % by sub forum.

Perhaps next year. Though I wouldn't guarantee that.

Apple fanboy · Jul 5, 2014

jav6454 said:
Perhaps next year. Though I wouldn't guarantee that.

There are no guarantees in life. I might have got a life by next year and spend less time talking to strange people on an Internet forum.

Then again I seem to fit in here.....

stridemat · Jul 5, 2014

SandboxGeneral said:
"Almost-unbeatable," I like the sound of that! Image

Now only if you all your posts in all forums counted! There would be no stopping you and Mike.

maflynn · Jul 5, 2014

Doctor Q said:
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
...

maflynn's overall post rate, last-6-months post rate, and weighted posts rates have all increased since 6 months ago. He again tops the End-of-Time Top 50.

To be honest, I don't think my posting rate is sustainable at the rate its at - I think its more of the exception then the rule. It's interesting to see me at the top, but I don't think we'll be talking about my high posting rate next January.

S.B.G · Jul 5, 2014

maflynn said:
To be honest, I don't think my posting rate is sustainable at the rate its at - I think its more of the exception then the rule. It's interesting to see me at the top, but I don't think we'll be talking about my high posting rate next January.

Yeah... You said the same thing about six months ago too.

Scepticalscribe · Jul 5, 2014

Fascinating stuff, and fascinating, as always, to read.

My sense is that the choice to engage in some degree of active participation comes and goes, and is often mirrored in what is happening in someone's real life.

When I joined, I went through a very prolific period for my first six months, but mid way through that time, I was posted abroad. The end of my first active posting period more or less coincided with a move to a much more senior position, which meant that time became much more limited. Moreover, my interest waned, as well, to a certain extent.

However, as Apple fanboy has already pointed out, sometimes MR provides an outlet which allows for sanity; other times, it is a factor in generating insanity (certain threads on certain forums, all of which shall remain nameless come to mind). And yes, it may allow for some reflections concerning one's social life……or lack thereof….

S.B.G · Jul 5, 2014

stridemat said:
Now only if you all your posts in all forums counted! There would be no stopping you and Mike.

Perhaps. But I bet there are others who would top us that spend a lot of time in PRSI.

Doctor Q · Jul 5, 2014

dukebound85 said:
I know I have dropped off big time in the last year or so in regards to posting but is interesting to see so many top 50 with 0 rates

Here's your history. The first segment is a straight line since I don't have intermediate counts. Your highest posting rate was during the 18 months starting in January 2009 (average 11.8 posts/day), followed by a consistent pace (average 3.9 posts/day) until January 2013, when you leveled off to less than 1 post/day.

Excel shows the data label a bit to the right of each graph point, so that last value is your current post count.

dukebound85's Posting History

click for the full-size graph

mobilehaathi · Jul 5, 2014

Doctor Q said:
Here's your history. The first segment is a straight line since I don't have intermediate counts. Your highest posting rate was during the 18 months starting in January 2009 (average 11.8 posts/day), followed by a consistent pace (average 3.9 posts/day) until January 2013, when you leveled off to less than 1 post/day.

Excel shows the data label a bit to the right of each graph point, so that last value is your current post count.

dukebound85's Posting History

click for the full-size graph

View attachment 479457

Ohh, ohh, can you do me next?

S.B.G · Jul 5, 2014

mobilehaathi said:
Ohh, ohh, can you do me next?

I don't think he will until you have at least 8,000 posts.

https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/15193545/

Sorry but you won't be in my tracking range until you have about 8000 posts. I keep stats only for members in the Top 50, formerly in the Top 50, or approaching the Top 50.

Koodauw · Jul 5, 2014

I always read these posts and think, I wish a lot of those people were still around.

mobilehaathi · Jul 5, 2014

SandboxGeneral said:
I don't think he will until you have at least 8,000 posts.

https://forums.macrumors.com/posts/15193545/

Awwww, guess I'd better step it up!

S.B.G · Jul 5, 2014

mobilehaathi said:
Awwww, guess I'd better step it up!

Need more coffee talk! ☕

Shrink · Jul 5, 2014

mobilehaathi said:
Awwww, guess I'd better step it up!

...and the multitude cringes in terror!

Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2014

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