The Chinese trade surplus with the US, amounting to approximately 3% of China’s GDP, is not so substantial that its loss would devastate their economy. China could redirect many of these goods to other nations, which may welcome the additional supply to a certain extent, or enhance domestic sales to absorb the surplus. Economic hardship perceived as a result of US hostility might also unify the Chinese populace, strengthening national resolve.
On 9 April 2025, Trump imposed a new 104% tariff on Chinese goods, giving China a mere day to concede before the measure took effect. China, however, retaliated by announcing an additional 50% tariff on US imports, bringing their total to 84%, effective from midnight on 10 April, and adding a number of US companies to its export control list and unreliable entity list. Trump appeared genuinely surprised that China declined to make concessions in exchange for relief, opting instead for significant retaliation. This reaction reflects China’s strategic learning from the trade war four to eight years prior, during which they developed resilience against such pressures.