I don't know if this helps with the speculation, but I was at Staples on Saturday and they had 0 iPod touches, and a nice worker-fellow checked and apparently they are getting a restock on the 15th...which coincides nicely with a Aug. 16 reveal.
IMO, this doesn't make sense because
a) they don't release new models during the school promo period (I just picked one up, my old one had a frayed charging cord + extended warranty, and as I was getting a MBP regardless, I got all the money back for the old one and a free one after the
rebate

)
b) they usually don't restock right before a new release.
...unless they hold off on actually selling it until September.
So I don't know if that's any help to you, but there it is. (All the rumors and all this thinking has just gotten me more confused.)