U.S. Customers Unsurprisingly Delaying New iPhone Purchases as iPhone 6 Launch Nears

[swm]

Well you know it's not compulsory that you must buy it. There are other options you know.

not at all. i don't want to upgrade my phone each time something comes out, and the old one is still ok. i just home there will be a "regular" sized iPhone in the future. i'm quite happy with the 5s, it has the same snappiness as 4s had with ios6.
i like the ecosystem, i like how it works together with all my crap at home.

if there'll be only 4,7 or 5.5" new iPhones in the future, and my (then) old 5s says goodbye to me, i hope they will be still selling some older model too, like they do it with iphone4S right now.
coz it is highly unlikely my hands will grow any bigger now

 

[Nunofaria21]

Still thing iPhone 5C was a bad call for Apple. The numbers, compared to the 5S, are nothing too special. I wonder how the iPhone 5 would compare to that.

 

[MyopicPaideia]

Why are these figures adding up to 100%?

It makes no sense to me that as iPhone % drops, android should increase and other should fill the gap to reach 100%.

Unless I am missing smth fundamental, these numbers seem seriously flawed.

Edit: I read the titles on the graphs again and it seems that the responses are only for folks intending to buy a phone now, those intending to wait for newer hardware seem to be filtered out of this population. Seems to make sense now, but I don't see how it actually (directly) answers the do you intend to (are you waiting to) buy an iphone6. It would seem that that question should be part of the survey to corroborate this question. A third question, maybe asked before the other two questions, would you buy an iPhone would also seem to be necessary to ensure the answers to the following questions were relevant.

Good edit. This is a good question. Unless the survey includes another question from which the logical answer flows, then the whole premise of the analysis is completely off. There should be a follow-up question that asks if you were to wait 6 months instead of 3, which product would you buy. Then compare the two.

My very short analysis of the survey results as they are is that of those people who are going to buy a phone now, the trend seems to follow top of mind marketing, i.e. the most recently released product swings up in the results.

Not surprising really?? The water is wet post is pretty accurate.

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The upcoming iPhone is going to be killer especially with ios8 , and the 4.7 .. I know loads of people eagerly waiting for it . Including me

Excellent! Me too...but you and I and people like us aren't part of this survey, which makes its conclusions so weird. Those who are not buying a phone before September are excluded from the results of this study by virtue of the first question.

 

[ksnell]

switched from 4s to 5s couple of weeks ago as my contract ran off. i know it isn't that taller, and i have pretty big hands, even though sometimes it feels very uncomfortable to reach the top left edge when using the phone with one hand. this particular gesture was very easy with the 4/4S.

i don't think i'll be glad with an even bigger phone :-(

Bigger screen certainly isn't as "one hand friendly," even with my bigger than average hands, but there is something to be said for more screen real-estate. I know I was ecstatic when they went to the 4 inch screen, but still wanted more. The bigger the screen, the less often I will need to reach for the iPad IMHO.

 

[Piggie]

How realistic is it for Apple to crank out new handsets every quarter? That's what the company is up against, since there are so many Android manufacturers.

Well Samsung make a vastly larger range of Mobile phones at all price points from a 20 dollar candybar phone right up to the top phones on the market.

The make a large range of tablets at different price points.

Not only that, the make great monitors.

Great range of Televisions. Camera's, computers, Then you move onto Home electirical goods etc etc.

AND they R&D themselves, AND the supply others with parts for their best in the world devices.

All Apple has to do it make 2 phones, 2 sizes of the same tablet. A few laptops, a desktop (which is really just a giant laptop on a stand) and a macpro.

All of which are pretty much made with other people's parts.

Seeing how much money Apple have, it's amazing they can actually have so little to offer people

 

[mytdave]

Something for Apple to fix...

Apple is historically late to market with products. They still don't need (or want) to compete in the low price/margin arena, but Apple is ceding ground to Android in the mid to high end markets. Why? Lack of product that consumers want.

The absence of a larger screen device was blatantly evident a long time ago. Demand for larger screens is not even a 20/20 hindsight issue - it was completely apparent to anyone who was paying attention - Apple totally screwed the pooch on that one.

The other thing Apple really needs to do is make multiple models, but no more than 3 (the 5s/5c duo is a good start), and get on a biannual rotation: The new numbered model 6, 7, 8, etc. needs to be released in AUGUST, and the subsequent 'S' models released in February or March. Rinse, repeat.

Apple regularly leaves a lot of money on the table (in the higher price/margin space) because they don't MAKE WHAT THE CUSTOMER WANTS.

 

[MyopicPaideia]

What?

10 phones are sold
4 iPhone -> 40%
6 Android -> 60%

iPhone demand is weak because new iPhone is imminent. Now:

8 phones are sold
2 iPhone --> 25%
6 Android --> 75%

Android share increases even though the absolute number of sold devices is steady.

Can't agree here - the survey measures buyer intent, not actual sales, so it is the number of participants that is the variable, not the number of phones sold. The number of participants is constant, 1,016 people every time.

This is also why the numbers add up to 100% each time. It's a multiple choice survey. iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C, random android phone, random other phone.

It isn't the numbers that are flawed, it is the interpretation applied to them by some of the posters here that doesn't make any sense. The PJ analyst isn't claiming that people who are waiting for the iPhone 6 are included in the survey. They aren't, but for some reason people are assuming that they are. Odd.

 

[jml12286]

Of course iPhone sales are declining right now because most people want big screens. I myself, have bought 2 other big screen phones just because apple doesn't have what I want. Yet I still go back to the tiny 5s because I like iOS and its apps way more. I still miss the bigger screens but the OS was enough for me to give it up.

 

[Technarchy]

The perils of being predictable.

 

[Crispykickz]

We already know that Apple's single annual release means that sales drop off almost halfway through each year in anticipation of the next model.

OTOH, Samsung has two high end models (the Galaxy S and the Galaxy Note), which come out in April and September respectively. Plus all the submodels released in various regions during the year. This all usually keeps their overall sales steady or on an upward climb.

True, but most people are going to buy one or the other.

Very few people are going to buy the S5 in April and then ditch it and get the new Note in September.

From a business perspective, I really don't care about steady sales. I care about how much product I move because how much product I move dictates how much revenue is generated. I also care if my supply chain can meet the demand of a new product.

For much of the year retailers are in the red, but as long as they nail Black Friday and the holiday season they are good for the year. They don't really care too much about the other times during the year. Sure' they'll have sales and promotions periodically, but its that holiday season that makes them whole.

The only time I care about "steady" sales numbers is when you have to put some marketing material together to show how many units I'm selling this month compared to the other guy, to make people feel good and nod approvingly.

 

[KdParker]

Or because the phone still isn't capable of sending text messages.
A very basic feature for a phone.

which phone would that be?

 

[Tiger8]

That's fine, but...

Where is the article about Lenovo taking Apple's spot in PC sales? Effectively making Apple slip to #4?

 

[Trapezoid]

Perhaps the cause is that less people are willed to spend a fortune on a commodity any more. For most customers (the ones that don't read MR) the difference between a mid-priced Android and a high priced Android flagship phone or the iPhone are neglectible.

And Apple isn't present on the low/mid price market, thus they're losing ground, especially outside the US. I doubt that new stores in china can change this.

That doesn't explain them selling 40m plus a qtr

 

[GregAndonian]

Once a former iPhone user switches to an Android device, how likely is that person to jump back to an iPhone when a new model comes out?

That depends on how many iMessages they sent.

 

[rmendol1]

4.7" is 2012 news, give me 5.5"

My Galaxy Nexus has been rocking a 4.65" since Dec 2011...

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Quick summary of this thread...

 

[medazinol]

There are a lot of non-technical people who are happy with their iPhones. However the folks who want something more flexible invariably go to Android. Once I showed my cousin who was always jailbreaking his iPhone my Galaxy S3 he dumped his iPhone in favour of a GS3. I've now had 3 Android phones and I doubt very much I'll ever go back to an iPhone even though I'm a Mac fan.

 

[Klae17]

And 6.5" phone next year?
And 7.5" two years later?
And 8.5" phone after that?

No.

 

[Lancer]

Not surprised but really there is at least 4-5 months before the new iPhone 6 gets here. This is not good for Apple as it means they have maybe a 6 month window before sales slow up with pending releases of the next model.

 

[512ke]

Pffffft

All iPhone sales will hold up just fine before the launch of the iPhone 6.

I was right about 5C sales, I was right about last quarter's nice bump in iPhone 5S sales, and I'm right now as well:

iPhones will continue to sell very well even the day before the iPhone 6's launch.

Personally, I wish there were a filtering capability on this site, to enjoy the great content without having to see articles about Android marketshare.

I don't care how much marketshare Android has, it's a broken ecosystem, it's a bad business model for Google, and the majority of Android Gizmo manufacturers are in a race to lose margins and profits.

 

[00sjsl]

So surprised. I thought everyone wanted to snatch up a 5S with the smaller screen. *sarcasm*

We can do that when the price falls, when the 6 comes out.

 

[nia820]

Still thing iPhone 5C was a bad call for Apple. The numbers, compared to the 5S, are nothing too special. I wonder how the iPhone 5 would compare to that.

The 5c would have worked if it was an actual low priced phone.

 

[jlabute]

What about 101%

You beat me to it: I also don't see how these statistics can show that "users are increasingly looking toward an expected fall launch for the iPhone 6". Each column adding up to 100% presumably means that only customers that were planning to buy a phone in the next 3 months have responded. In which case, customers waiting for the iPhone 6 aren't even included here, and the drop in iPhone numbers (and "other" numbers) is totally accounted for by people planning to purchase Android...

You'll notice that 5S Dec-13 actually totals 101%. This is not a scientific study, nor does it look like much math was involved ;-) I would not put any credence in to a scam report that doesn't divulge their statistical methodology. Needless to say, I only believe about 2% of the polls out there.lol

 

[iPad Air]

Yes, I am waiting for the iPhone 6. I have had the 4S for 2 years. I am planning on the next iPhone. Looking forward to it.

I have a feeling it is going to be in even higher demand than the 5S was. Hopefully this year Apple is preparing for a plethora of orders...

 

[thermodynamic]

Unsurprising. The iPhone 6 should remedy this.

I'm still expecting Apple's stock to skyrocket the quarter after the iPhone 6 comes out.

What if it doesn't?

What if Cook sells enough of his stock to drive the value of yours down?

I do think that if at all possible, Apple has to think about moving to a twice a year roll out of phones. that would smooth out the demand curve a bit IMO.

Why? Seems wasteful, since there won't always be enough customers to meet the demand, even if they expanded on a galactic level... not in a spiraling global economy where fewer will have the resources to buy in order to keep Apple's revenue and P&L statements looking so nice to the suckers... I mean stock owners who, when combined with 90% of the rest that bought stock, still own less stock than the few at the top...

 

[fermat-au]

What?
Android share increases even though the absolute number of sold devices is steady.

Exactly, this is one reason I like Kartar's smartphone number, they quote the recent 3 month period against the same 3 month period one year ago. As Apple launches new iPhone at the same time each year, the numbers refected in a spike for iOS sales near the end of each year.

image from TechCrunch