as for your thunderbolt statement yes that would require YOUR needs in YOUR field.
But I think you're underestimate this, suggesting that my need is explicit and not something widely common.... I all ready know lot's of people using Thunderbolt technology, simply because they work on Power Mac which are been delivered standard with thunderbolt technology now and because the external hardware isn't 'that' expensive as you think. For round about 200 euro's you already have a terabyte of thunderbolt external drives and for photographers users using RAW materials with collections of hundreds, even thousands, of photo's browsing true a drive connected with thunderbolt makes a huge difference when comparing it with USB. Yes, alternatives makes browsing also faster like with Lightroom 5 where you can make small thumbnails of your entire collection for use in browsing and even editing before you put any changes you've made on the original file.
But even with alternative techniques that makes browsing trough large collection more fulfilling you still have this issue of video. You state clearly that it would be "my field" but I disagree. Digital Video equipment becomes cheaper each year, also 4K camera's which are pricy still but in years they will become accessible for the common user. The camera's also getting smaller and smaller so soon you'll have "common" people shooting holiday scenes with a hand held 4K camera. Those files being generated requires massive data storage but also way fast editing possibilities. Internal lot's have been solved using SSD drives and especially Flash drives, but externally people will deman much faster speed then the current USB can deliver.
This doesn't mean that USB will be taken over, all tough Fireware was a flop (i agree) there is no intention to get USB out of the market with Thunderbolt technology, but thunderbolt is so much more then Firewire as you know when you know what Thunderbolt is capable of. It's not only the speed but it also enables to continually put on new devices without the new of new slots and provide those add on hardware devices with power as well. It also doesn't slow down transfers and is not limited to go one way. USB does limited transfer speeds.
Time will tell, but I seriously think that Thunderbolt is here to stay, not to push out USB but be aside with USB for users that truly need the speed and those users are growing since data storage and creating large data files is increasing as well each year for many users.
that doesnt mean its going to be successful, the NEED for thunderbolt is limited to certain fields and not necessary
That I disagree with. First of all, as said before, that "field" is not limited, for work I see lot's of editing studio's and they all work with this technology, but even more interesting is that more and more friends (both freelancers and professionals) working with one add one hardware thunderbolt technology because their computer has thunderbolt on it as a standard (they all work on powermacs)
Second, see my previous answer, when the demand for large data storage increases so will the demand for speed.
the only time we would need a thunderbolt or fireware external is to run virtual machines on it.
Not "only", you clearly missing out the fact of the ease of browsing trough large collections of files which contains large amount of data and the fact that small agencies are being connected with thunderbolt technology so when two people transfers files the network will not slow down, especially handy when even more then 2 people using the same network.
It's not just the speed, read what Thunderbolt is about, you'll see it's way more then just speed.
im just saying, i dont see thunderbolt getting big, just like how firewire was supposed to take over USB 2.0
That's called sophism, Firewire is a whole other story and even more important, you can't compare the two. You would know if you would understand what Thunderbolt is all about, it's not just about transfer where Firewire is.
USB is just too universal its going to hard to change,
True!
and the technology of the thunderbolt wire is just too complex and expensive.
Expensive, still, yes. But hardly complex. In fact, Thunderbolt is way less complex then USB because using USB requires to buy an external USB equipment to enable more USB ports because most computers only have 4 ports or less even. While for Thunderbolt just one connection enable to put a Thunderbolt hardware device on it and another connection on that device enables you to put another device on the previous device, and on and on without loosing speed or capabilities.
It Just Works, on the third or forth attempt
