Other Understanding Apple's tradeoffs between announcing new iPhones in September vs. October

[benjaminww]

I'm an iUP member, and I've been—just for fun—wondering what Apple may be thinking when deciding between announcing new iPhones in September versus October.

If they announce in October would that greatly reduce the number of iUP members who upgrade? Would iUP members feel incentivized to finish out their current phone's installment plan (because they'd be paying +1 more month than normal) instead of upgrading?

If they announce in September and can't get phones into people's hands until October what is the cost of that? Would consumers be frustrated that they'd need to wait a month before the phone is delivered? (I personally wouldn't.)

I recognize there's many more factors to be considered than just these two questions, but these are the questions that most interest me.

Thanks!

 

[wulfin]

It’s definitely a thought but it most likely depends on supply.

My iPhone XS Max is due back at the carrier in less than 2 weeks. I’ve been running it dual sim, so I will be popping my business SIM card into a Samsung s8 I have kicking around, but it leaves me without a personal phone until the 12 comes out. You can bet I’ll never do the “bring it back” program through the carrier again. LOL. But that Month without a phone isn’t ideal. It’ll be hard not to pick something else up that IS available.

 

[alpi123]

It's 99% certain new iPhones aren't coming in September. If there was going to be an event, the invites should've been already sent out, or a press release published.

Jon Prosser a while ago said that if they chose to hold an event on October for the iPhones, that possibly means real-life event with the press there, instead of WWDC style.

I don't think people would be frustrated to wait a month longer, unless they absolutely need a new phone. This is all given the circumstances.

 

[benjaminww]

It's 99% certain new iPhones aren't coming in September. If there was going to be an event, the invites should've been already sent out, or a press release published.

Jon Prosser a while ago said that if they chose to hold an event on October for the iPhones, that possibly means real-life event with the press there, instead of WWDC style.

I don't think people would be frustrated to wait a month longer, unless they absolutely need a new phone. This is all given the circumstances.

I'd be really surprised if Apple held an in-person event in October considering everything still going on with COVID-19. I'd imagine a fancy pre-recorded announcement video is their only viable option right now. Of course, I could be completely wrong about all of this, but if the event is an edited video, do you think they'd need to send out event invites / announcements?

 

[dmccloud]

I think supply chain issues are what's delaying the launch announcement. Traditionally Apple has announced on a Monday or Tuesday, with preorders beginning that Friday and official release one week later. Given the supply chain constraints across the industry at the moment (try finding a Chromebook, Webcam, printer, even a sub-$300 laptop anywhere right now), I don't think Apple has a choice in the matter regarding delaying the formal announcement. This is really an unprecedented time for the industry, as COVID-19 has caused massive spikes in demand for these devices at the same time the supply chains have been disrupted and consequently can't produce enough devices to keep up with demand, let alone build up inventory.

 

[maka344]

Happened with the X. Released in Oct/Nov, no big deal.

 

[JPack]

I think supply chain issues are what's delaying the launch announcement. Traditionally Apple has announced on a Monday or Tuesday, with preorders beginning that Friday and official release one week later. Given the supply chain constraints across the industry at the moment (try finding a Chromebook, Webcam, printer, even a sub-$300 laptop anywhere right now), I don't think Apple has a choice in the matter regarding delaying the formal announcement. This is really an unprecedented time for the industry, as COVID-19 has caused massive spikes in demand for these devices at the same time the supply chains have been disrupted and consequently can't produce enough devices to keep up with demand, let alone build up inventory.

If it were a supply chain issue, we would see it with all the current iPhone models. Not to mention the other big names including Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, etc. who have all launched new 5G products in the past 6 months. No credible analysts have pointed to a supply chain issue. Everyone is saying it's because Apple decided to design their own mmWave antenna for 5G.

Low margin items like webcam, Chromebooks, and sub-$300 notebooks will always be low on the priority list for manufacturers during expected demand.

 

[dmccloud]

If it were a supply chain issue, we would see it with all the current iPhone models. Not to mention the other big names including Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, etc. who have all launched new 5G products in the past 6 months. No credible analysts have pointed to a supply chain issue. Everyone is saying it's because Apple decided to design their own mmWave antenna for 5G.

Low margin items like webcam, Chromebooks, and sub-$300 notebooks will always be low on the priority list for manufacturers during expected demand.

Most manufacturing facilities are running at reduced capacities (if running at all) due to the pandemic. That's also why MacBook Airs as of last week were showing shipping estimates between September 11 and September 18. Here's a current snapshot of delivery windows from Apple's website:

MacBook Air: arrives between September 9 and 11
13" MacBook Pro: arrives between September 23-30 (1.4GHz), next day (2.0GHz)
iPad Pro (both sizes): arrives between September 23-30
iPad Air: September 16-23
iPad: September 9-16

The analysts you refer to only look at Apple specifically and overlook and/or ignore everything else that isn't direct related to Apple. When Foxconn's production facilities shut down earlier this year due to COVID-19, they reported a 90% loss in revenue for Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2019. While Foxconn is a bit of an outlier given their heavy focus on Smartphone manufacturing, the dozens of companies producing hardware and peripherals for HP, Microsoft, Dell, Acer, ASUS, etc. have also been significantly impacted by the virus. What they are missing is that COVID-19 is affecting the entire electronics industry, not just low-end laptops and peripherals.

Electronics supply chains are stuck between a pandemic and a trade war. Where do they go from here?

Shifting operations is a mammoth undertaking for the electronics industry due to China's specialized production capacities, co-location of key suppliers and economies of scale.

www.supplychaindive.com

Covid-19 & Necessity Accelerate Supply Chain Digitization - EE Times

The onset of the coronavirus epidemic has accelerated the supply chain digital transformation that has languished on businesses’ “to-do” list for years.

epsnews.com

How the Electronics Supply Chain is Responding to COVID-19

What companies worldwide are doing to help shore up the electronics supply chain during these times of extreme uncertainty.

www.sourcetoday.com

 

[alpi123]

I'd be really surprised if Apple held an in-person event in October considering everything still going on with COVID-19. I'd imagine a fancy pre-recorded announcement video is their only viable option right now. Of course, I could be completely wrong about all of this, but if the event is an edited video, do you think they'd need to send out event invites / announcements?

Even for a pre-recorded event, they would of course esnd out invites, as they did with WWDC. But if everyone in the Steve Jobs theatre wears masks and there are safety measures taken before and after entering, I don't see what's stopping them from an in-person event. The iPhones event is their most important one after all, they're probably trying their hardest to make it happen.

 

[JPack]

Most manufacturing facilities are running at reduced capacities (if running at all) due to the pandemic. That's also why MacBook Airs as of last week were showing shipping estimates between September 11 and September 18. Here's a current snapshot of delivery windows from Apple's website:

MacBook Air: arrives between September 9 and 11
13" MacBook Pro: arrives between September 23-30 (1.4GHz), next day (2.0GHz)
iPad Pro (both sizes): arrives between September 23-30
iPad Air: September 16-23
iPad: September 9-16

The analysts you refer to only look at Apple specifically and overlook and/or ignore everything else that isn't direct related to Apple. When Foxconn's production facilities shut down earlier this year due to COVID-19, they reported a 90% loss in revenue for Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2019. While Foxconn is a bit of an outlier given their heavy focus on Smartphone manufacturing, the dozens of companies producing hardware and peripherals for HP, Microsoft, Dell, Acer, ASUS, etc. have also been significantly impacted by the virus. What they are missing is that COVID-19 is affecting the entire electronics industry, not just low-end laptops and peripherals.

Electronics supply chains are stuck between a pandemic and a trade war. Where do they go from here?

Shifting operations is a mammoth undertaking for the electronics industry due to China's specialized production capacities, co-location of key suppliers and economies of scale.

www.supplychaindive.com

Covid-19 & Necessity Accelerate Supply Chain Digitization - EE Times

The onset of the coronavirus epidemic has accelerated the supply chain digital transformation that has languished on businesses’ “to-do” list for years.

epsnews.com

How the Electronics Supply Chain is Responding to COVID-19

What companies worldwide are doing to help shore up the electronics supply chain during these times of extreme uncertainty.

www.sourcetoday.com

There is record demand for iPad and Mac from China - Tim Cook stated this during the last conference call. From CNBC:

“iPad was helped in the June quarter there (China) by the work from home and distance learning as it was in other geographies. And the Mac also grew strong, double-digit during the quarter. And services set a new June quarter record there,” Cook said on the earnings call.​

​

“We also continue to see extremely high new customer rates on Mac and iPad there. To give you a perspective, about three out of four customers that are buying the Mac are new in China and about two out of three that are buying the iPad are new. And so these are numbers that we’re super proud of.”​

Again, if it were supply chain issues, all existing iPhone products would be affected. We would have heard about them during quarterly earning conference calls from Flex, Hon Hai, Broadcom, Jabil, etc. and other Apple suppliers.

Foxconn returned back to normal production by late-March or early-April.

Here's an actual quote from Jabil's CEO, who manufactures aluminum and stainless steel chassis for Apple.

​

"I'd characterize it this way just so you have some relativity. If, let's say, pre-COVID -- let's say, the supply chain activity behavior pre-COVID, December/January timeframe was a 10, I think we hit our biggest dibit probably in the March/April timeframe. I call that maybe a 5 to 6. I'd say, today, we're back to 8 or 9. And I think it stays there until we get to the backside of COVID, whenever that is."​

​

 

[MrKennedy]

I'm an iUP member, and I've been—just for fun—wondering what Apple may be thinking when deciding between announcing new iPhones in September versus October.

If they announce in October would that greatly reduce the number of iUP members who upgrade? Would iUP members feel incentivized to finish out their current phone's installment plan (because they'd be paying +1 more month than normal) instead of upgrading?

That shouldn't be an issue, though. iUP program is essentially lease-to-own. The terms allow you to turn it in for another phone anytime after 12 payments, or you can continue making payments until you've paid the full balance.

Let's say the 12 series is delayed by a month and your iUP plan began in Sept. last year. If you want to get the 12 series phone after making 13 payments, it's not like you "lost" a month of usage because the 12 was delayed. You had the 11 series during that extra month, so of course you should pay for it.

 

[benjaminww]

That shouldn't be an issue, though. iUP program is essentially lease-to-own. The terms allow you to turn it in for another phone anytime after 12 payments, or you can continue making payments until you've paid the full balance.

Let's say the 12 series is delayed by a month and your iUP plan began in Sept. last year. If you want to get the 12 series phone after making 13 payments, it's not like you "lost" a month of usage because the 12 was delayed. You had the 11 series during that extra month, so of course you should pay for it.

That makes total sense. I appreciate you writing this out. Definitely reframes my thinking around the iUP.

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

It's being released in October.

 

[freeagent]

Leasing a phone = boooo.

But if you just have to have the newest every year without coughing up the big dollars to actually own it then I guess that’s the way to fly.

 

[Phone Junky]

That shouldn't be an issue, though. iUP program is essentially lease-to-own. The terms allow you to turn it in for another phone anytime after 12 payments, or you can continue making payments until you've paid the full balance.

Let's say the 12 series is delayed by a month and your iUP plan began in Sept. last year. If you want to get the 12 series phone after making 13 payments, it's not like you "lost" a month of usage because the 12 was delayed. You had the 11 series during that extra month, so of course you should pay for it.

That's the way I see it. Granted, I'm not in the IUP. In another thread: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...2-delays.2233611/?post=28474021#post-28474021 I was pretty much told that this line of thinking was wrong and that anyone in the IUP should expect to be able to get a new phone after 12 payments and without having to make any extra payments regardless of whether they have the phone longer than 12 months.

 

[MrKennedy]

That's the way I see it. Granted, I'm not in the IUP. In another thread: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...2-delays.2233611/?post=28474021#post-28474021 I was pretty much told that this line of thinking was wrong and that anyone in the IUP should expect to be able to get a new phone after 12 payments and without having to make any extra payments regardless of whether they have the phone longer than 12 months.

I'm not on iUP either, but I think viewing it as lease-to-own makes sense. No one is guaranteed a new phone after 12 payments... you still owe on the one you've got!

The other way folks suggest getting a new phone each year is to buy it outright and sell on your own. iUP just makes that process more convenient.

 

[ggibson913]

That's the way I see it. Granted, I'm not in the IUP. In another thread: https://forums.macrumors.com/thread...2-delays.2233611/?post=28474021#post-28474021 I was pretty much told that this line of thinking was wrong and that anyone in the IUP should expect to be able to get a new phone after 12 payments and without having to make any extra payments regardless of whether they have the phone longer than 12 months.

I am in the iUP program and you can upgrade your iPhone (since your first payment is made date of purchase, you have actually made 12 payments with your August payment). If I check my upgrade eligibility, I am absolutely eligible to upgrade to a new iPhone as I have made 12 payments. Apple makes no guarantee that they will have a new phone for me in September to upgrade to, but I do have the ability to trade in my iPhone for a different color/ model should I choose. As the iPhone 12 is coming out in another month that would be a silly choice IMO, but the option is there.

When you sign up for iUP you are in fact purchasing an iPhone and Apple Care. Apple/ Citizens banks is agreeing to suspend my obligations should I choose to trade it in for a new one, but barring that, I still owe Apple the other half of the cost of the iPhone. I hate the term 'lease to own' as it doesn't really effectively cover the transaction, if I am not purchasing a new iPhone, I cannot just turn it in and stop paying for it. If Apple doesn't release a new iPhone, I still have to pay for my current one. If I pay another year, I will own this iPhone.

 

[murad_fourth]

It's being released in October.

Nooo, you were harshly claiming that Apple will introduce the new iPhones in Sept. and will begin to sell them either at the end of Sept. or at the beginning of Oct.

But now what i see is you completely changed your mind and you turned. This is what i understand from not only your this comment but all comment around here.

But why? Why you are making us disappointed? Won’t Apple introduce and release the new iPhones in September? Really? 😭

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

Nooo, you were harshly claiming that Apple will introduce the new iPhones in Sept. and will begin to sell them either at the end of Sept. or at the beginning of Oct.

But now what i see is you completely changed your mind and you turned. This is what i understand from not only your this comment but all comment around here.

But why? Why you are making us disappointed? Won’t Apple introduce and release the new iPhones in September? Really? 😭

Announced in September. Release in October.

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

I wonder if there’s going to be lawsuits coming because people couldn’t follow up with the upgrade program.

 

[Donnation]

I wonder if there’s going to be lawsuits coming because people couldn’t follow up with the upgrade program.

I would hope that Apple will still allow the program to happen even if they don't launch until December.

 

[TheYayAreaLiving 🎗️]

I would hope that Apple will still allow the program to happen even if they don't launch until December.

I really dont think iPhone will be delayed till December.

 

[Donnation]

I really dont think iPhone will be delayed till December.

Yeah probably not. But remember it’s 2020....

 

[44267547]

As another member alluded to, the 2017 iPhone X launched in November, did that sway sales at all? No, it didn’t. However, what the 2017 iPhone X did have, was a brand new form factor with Face ID, and was massively hyped, even though there was plenty of units available around the Christmas time frame. This year is no different, but the economy is against Apple rather than actually supporting it, so consumers with rely on the upgrade programs obviously or not upgrade at all.

 

[ggibson913]

I would hope that Apple will still allow the program to happen even if they don't launch until December.

I am still trying to figure out what the basis of the lawsuit would be? There is no guarantee that there will be a new iPhone every September, all Apple promises is that after 12 payments on iUP you are eligible to trade your phone in for a new one. Which you are, if you made 12 payments you can go to Apple and upgrade to a newer iPhone 11.