I think the mp3 player/music download market is comparable right now to the PC market back in the mid-80s when companies like Microsoft started to realize that the real center of power was going to be in the production of software, not hardware. Back then, everyone thought the real power was in the production of hardware and that software was sort of an incidental thing, but Microsoft (and Apple, to be fair) proved that wrong.
In this case, the bet was between music downloads and CDs. The music industry bet the farm on CDs and sort of begudgingly went along with Apple as it went forward with the download/mp3 player side (and did so with more zeal and smarts than anyone else--not unlike Microsoft pursuing software 20+ years ago.)
The bottom line is that I think Universal knows they are on the losing side of this and are just making lots of noise and flailing about in an effort to secure as much power in this new download ecosystem that clearly isn't going away any time soon--and neither is Apple and iTunes. My bet is that they will learn that they are doing themselves more harm than good and will come crawling back. Comparing it to the hardware/software dichotomy of the 80s, it's a little like Dell refusing to work with Microsoft in an effort to reduce MS's power. They would hurt themselves more than they would hurt Microsoft. Univeral is about to do the same, IMHO.