Just a bit more fire to the fuel.....
A January launch could actually make sense. AT&T will have a bunch of folks who are due for upgrades in January, but those same folks, while eligible for early upgrade with AT&T (18 to 21 months in) will not have their 2-year contracts completed and would still be subject to early-term fees for switching carriers.
Most who would be due for their contract to be up were given a chance to re-up that contract in 2010 with iPhone-4 and will be locked in with new higher early-term fees for two more years.
Once March rolls around an AT&T users who contract have expired will be anxious to see what iPhone-5 looks like on AT&T and would probably hold off switching to Verizon.
AT&T's actions certainly support a January Verizon launch. Surely they have offered early upgrades every year, but this year's seems the most extensive and is coupled with new higher early-term fees.
If AT&T has played their cards correctly they will limit a Verizon iPhone launch to Verizon customers who have been waiting for the iPhone and will have kept the number of AT&T defectors/escapees to a minimum.
NOTE: I figure AT&T views them as "defectors" while the user views himself as an "escapee".
A January launch could actually make sense. AT&T will have a bunch of folks who are due for upgrades in January, but those same folks, while eligible for early upgrade with AT&T (18 to 21 months in) will not have their 2-year contracts completed and would still be subject to early-term fees for switching carriers.
Most who would be due for their contract to be up were given a chance to re-up that contract in 2010 with iPhone-4 and will be locked in with new higher early-term fees for two more years.
Once March rolls around an AT&T users who contract have expired will be anxious to see what iPhone-5 looks like on AT&T and would probably hold off switching to Verizon.
AT&T's actions certainly support a January Verizon launch. Surely they have offered early upgrades every year, but this year's seems the most extensive and is coupled with new higher early-term fees.
If AT&T has played their cards correctly they will limit a Verizon iPhone launch to Verizon customers who have been waiting for the iPhone and will have kept the number of AT&T defectors/escapees to a minimum.
NOTE: I figure AT&T views them as "defectors" while the user views himself as an "escapee".