Waiting for New Macs? Apple Just Shared Bad News

[DaveEcc]

Just like the yearly release of cars, it doesn't mean you need to upgrade your car every year. Still, yes, it's likely that doing a release every 2 years would mean a greater improvement than two yearly releases, removing half of the release overhead. On the other hand it may be harder to plan what node to design for 2 or 3 years in advance, thus doing that approach adds more risk. Perhaps we should assume Apple has figured out what works for them, and just accept it.

 

[chucker23n1]

IMO computers don't need a yearly update, rather they should be updated when ready.

The M5 was ready.

I agree. I would welcome Apple, doing a 2-3 year hardware upgrade cycle instead, focusing on bigger jumps in performance and design (which is essentially skipping a gen or two now).

What problem does that solve?

I want a new MBP next year. According to you two, it would be better for that to have an M3 Pro or M4 Pro rather than the M5 Pro it'll likely have because… reasons? I don't understand the logic at all.

Newer CPU/GPU/NPU core designs are happening regardless, unless you also want to slow down iPhone development. New standards like Thunderbolt and Wi-Fi, or faster LPDDR specs, are happening regardless, whether Apple likes them to or not.

There's a point where releasing new hardware would be silly (we don't need new MacBooks every 2 months), but once a year? I fail to see the issue at all.

(I don't know what the most frequent has been. I know there have been cases where a new MB was released twice a year, such as the MacBook Air in 2020, but I'm not sure there was ever a third release. That seems a bit much.)

In between the hardware updates, just focus MORE on software stability and features.

But that's an entirely different org within Apple. (Aside from that, I don't think the release cadence would have much effect on the quality. If they released a major update every other year, they'd release a major update with even more bugs every other year, because they would've accumulated more cruft.)

 

[ZiBart]

What problem does that solve?

I want a new MBP next year. According to you two, it would be better for that to have an M3 Pro or M4 Pro rather than the M5 Pro it'll likely have because… reasons? I don't understand the logic at all.

Newer CPU/GPU/NPU core designs are happening regardless, unless you also want to slow down iPhone development. New standards like Thunderbolt and Wi-Fi, or faster LPDDR specs, are happening regardless, whether Apple likes them to or not.

There's a point where releasing new hardware would be silly (we don't need new MacBooks every 2 months), but once a year? I fail to see the issue at all.

(I don't know what the most frequent has been. I know there have been cases where a new MB was released twice a year, such as the MacBook Air in 2020, but I'm not sure there was ever a third release. That seems a bit much.)

I wouldn't call it a "problem" but the issue some have is that Apple doesn't update the entire Mac line with new CPU (M5) variants (laptop and desktop) at the same time. Perhaps not being rushed/obliged to release something within a short timeframe would allow for complete category updates within a similar timeframe.

Just because a retail product is not released every X months, doesn't mean there is no development or it's slowed. Apple SOC / hardware roadmap is mostly set for several years in advance. In fact, they most likely do these incremental updates on purpose just to meet this schedule. My suggestion is to forget the incremental updates, and just do the bigger leaps that you already have in the pipeline. Same pace of development. Less investment in frequent releases. The other non Apple parts get updated on their own cycles, and Apple has already shown many times over that they don't adopt new tech right away, even though it has been out for some time.

Any case, I don't care what they do as I'm not buying things based on release cycles anyways. Nor do I have FOMO when I do need something but it has been out for over a year without an update.

But that's an entirely different org within Apple. (Aside from that, I don't think the release cadence would have much effect on the quality. If they released a major update every other year, they'd release a major update with even more bugs every other year, because they would've accumulated more cruft.)

Companies adapt headcount by hiring where needed, and not filling positions due to departures where they don't. I didn't say that a hardware engineer can just walk over to a different department and be a software engineer. Nor did I suggest that Apple should just do this overnight. Lol.

I know nothing about running an tech manufacturer and these are just "backseat driver without a license" thoughts on a forum.

 

[icisz]

Apple going for the bare minimum, and then going below that. Guess no new Apple TV until late next year.

Cya in June for anything else.

What? lol. How does what you’ve been reading translate into that exactly?
While Gurman speculates a possible November 11 release for the tv5, you’re convinced no, not this time, but maybe late next year? Do explain oh wise armchair analyst that nobody knows or ever heard of ever, with much negativity oozing from thyne fingertips.

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

 

[icisz]

I still don't understand what the rush to release the M5 on only the iPad Pro and base MBP was about, but no harm done I suppose.

I really only want a new ATV this year, truthfully.

I don’t see it as a “rush” beyond it just being ready for primetime and ready for the Christmas lineup of offerings.

Since I’m in the market for a potential m5 MBP upgrade it’s music to my ears, but waiting for the 16” might be warranted. For me, iPad Pro m4 was last year, so that puts me right where I want to be- Timing wise even if that means next spring, which doesn’t seem out of the ordinary based on previous releases.

I mean, what’s the rush anyways. Let them take the required time to release things when they are properly dialled in, and let that be that. If ppl want half baked, rushed out the door products, that’s what Samsung windoze PC’s are for.

 

[icisz]

I feel like apple has pigeon holed itself (and trained its audience) in releasing new computer hardware on a pretty regular yearly schedule. IMO computers don't need a yearly update, rather they should be updated when ready. I think the M5 MBP rollout is ridiculous that there is no M5 Pro or Ultra right now with the regular M5. When Apple was bound to Intel chips the updates were to infrequent and now I feel Apple has gone the other was and now they are too frequent. Phones seem good on a yearly schedule, computers don't need that IMHO.

So let me get this straight. You think computers don’t need a yearly update and should be released when ready; yet the new  silicon rollouts are now too frequent. But what they have done is ridiculous, and the m5, m5 pro, and ultra, instead of being released when ready, should all be pushed out post haste at all costs so that they can together fly out the door on the same launch day? Oh, and that smartphones, which are actually computers as well btw, are just fine on their current yearly scheduled trajectory.

Am I the only one who senses some serious non sequitur conflation in your thought processes here? 😂

 

[chucker23n1]

I wouldn't call it a "problem" but the issue some have is that Apple doesn't update the entire Mac line with new CPU (M5) variants (laptop and desktop) at the same time. Perhaps not being rushed/obliged to release something within a short timeframe would allow for complete category updates within a similar timeframe.

But that would be worse.

The A14 came out in 2020Q3, the M1 in Q4, the M1 Pro and Max in 2021Q4, and the M1 Ultra in 2012Q2 — a span of almost two years.

The M3 was even more staggered than that: the A16 came out in 2022Q3, the M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max in 2023Q4, and the M3 Ultra in 2025Q1 — two and a half years!

Should the iPhone, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, Mac mini, iMac, all be delayed, by months or years, because the Mac Studio comes out later? Should the Mac Studio be artificially made worse so it can be released at the same time? I don't think you can resolve that complexity.

They try to keep things more in sync on the software side. Oftentimes, they ship macOS a month later, in October, but for the most part, all of their main software platforms ship in fall — iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and stuff like the HomePod's OS. This comes with advantages: it's less confusing to users (especially now that they've even synced up the version number; it's clear to everyone that "26" is current, no matter the platform), and it gives them better interoperability (for example, if they add a new feature to Notes, they can expect that Mac users, iPad users, etc. all have it within a few weeks). But it also comes with pressure, and I think that helps lead to quality issues.

So in that sense, perhaps Ternus and Srouji have a different philosophy than Federighi; he wants things synced up as much as possible, whereas they ship something specific when that happens to be ready. The one exception being the iPhone, which presumably has a mandate from Cook and Joz to ship in September no matter what (I think it may have slipped to October in 2020?). Srouji can't say "well, we're not gonna have a new chip ready"; it's gonna ship. Federighi can't say "well, the new iOS is kind of buggy"; it's gonna ship with the new iOS. That strictness gives them better sales, at the cost of day-one problems with new iPhones, which might hurt their reputation.

But on the Mac? They just wait until it's ready. It's been years since there has been a hardware problem on day one. Whatever the reason, the M5 was ready, and the M5 Pro and Max weren't, and the M5 Ultra — if it exists — certainly isn't. So they decided to ship the M5 now.

 

[Donkey Man]

Timmy doesn’t care about the Mac - he still hopes more than 10 people will buy the AVP.

 

[chucker23n1]

Timmy doesn’t care about the Mac - he still hopes more than 10 people will buy the AVP.

They literally released new Macs a few weeks ago.

 

[nikhsub1]

So let me get this straight. You think computers don’t need a yearly update and should be released when ready; yet the new  silicon rollouts are now too frequent. But what they have done is ridiculous, and the m5, m5 pro, and ultra, instead of being released when ready, should all be pushed out post haste at all costs so that they can together fly out the door on the same launch day? Oh, and that smartphones, which are actually computers as well btw, are just fine on their current yearly scheduled trajectory.

Am I the only one who senses some serious non sequitur conflation in your thought processes here? 😂

No. If only the M5 is ready for release, put it in the ipad pro and the macbook air - wait until the Pro and Max are ready then update the MBPs. Not sure how you can't understand.

 

[MikeZTM]

But that would be worse.

The A14 came out in 2020Q3, the M1 in Q4, the M1 Pro and Max in 2021Q4, and the M1 Ultra in 2012Q2 — a span of almost two years.

The M3 was even more staggered than that: the A16 came out in 2022Q3, the M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max in 2023Q4, and the M3 Ultra in 2025Q1 — two and a half years!

Should the iPhone, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, Mac mini, iMac, all be delayed, by months or years, because the Mac Studio comes out later? Should the Mac Studio be artificially made worse so it can be released at the same time? I don't think you can resolve that complexity.

They try to keep things more in sync on the software side. Oftentimes, they ship macOS a month later, in October, but for the most part, all of their main software platforms ship in fall — iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and stuff like the HomePod's OS. This comes with advantages: it's less confusing to users (especially now that they've even synced up the version number; it's clear to everyone that "26" is current, no matter the platform), and it gives them better interoperability (for example, if they add a new feature to Notes, they can expect that Mac users, iPad users, etc. all have it within a few weeks). But it also comes with pressure, and I think that helps lead to quality issues.

So in that sense, perhaps Ternus and Srouji have a different philosophy than Federighi; he wants things synced up as much as possible, whereas they ship something specific when that happens to be ready. The one exception being the iPhone, which presumably has a mandate from Cook and Joz to ship in September no matter what (I think it may have slipped to October in 2020?). Srouji can't say "well, we're not gonna have a new chip ready"; it's gonna ship. Federighi can't say "well, the new iOS is kind of buggy"; it's gonna ship with the new iOS. That strictness gives them better sales, at the cost of day-one problems with new iPhones, which might hurt their reputation.

But on the Mac? They just wait until it's ready. It's been years since there has been a hardware problem on day one. Whatever the reason, the M5 was ready, and the M5 Pro and Max weren't, and the M5 Ultra — if it exists — certainly isn't. So they decided to ship the M5 now.

The issue with that is by the time when Mac Studio releases the SoC is just a few months away from being outperformed by next gen laptops.

It’s ridiculous to buy a Mac Studio now — you are getting better value by purchasing a MacBook Pro at launch window and never use its screen.

I don’t understand why NOT assembly the laptop chassis takes them more than half a year.

M5 is way faster in single core performance and even reaching M4 pro level milti-core performance.

This lineup doesn’t make any sense as IRL workload single core’s performance is the king and M5 lower end MBP will outperform the best Mac Studio and MacBook Pro 16.

Getting a higher end product that came with this much trade off is unheard of for any consumer grade computers.

 

[chucker23n1]

Getting a higher end product that came with this much trade off is unheard of for any consumer grade computers.

It's actually quite normal. Intel Xeon also tends to ship 1-3 years after equivalent consumer models.

 

[MikeZTM]

It's actually quite normal. Intel Xeon also tends to ship 1-3 years after equivalent consumer models.

Intel Xeon is server/workstation parts, not consumer.

They have to be stable to meet enterprise requirements and carries specialized features.

It’s not like M4 Max Mac Studio is any different than a M4 Max MacBook in stability.

 

[CWallace]

The issue with that is by the time when Mac Studio releases the SoC is just a few months away from being outperformed by next gen laptops. It’s ridiculous to buy a Mac Studio now — you are getting better value by purchasing a MacBook Pro at launch window and never use its screen.

You can use the same argument to not buying a new MacBook Air on release as it also is 7-8 months away for a new base MacBook to launch with a new generation of SoC.

But if you need a new Studio or new Air when they launch in March or soon after, waiting another half-year-plus to get something "better" - and also more expensive and in a possibly less-convenient form factor - either may not be an option or the value proposition for that "better" SoC is not sufficient to justify waiting for it.

I don’t understand why NOT assembly the laptop chassis takes them more than half a year.

My guess is that for M2-M4 Apple+TSMC do not have sufficient stock of Max SoCs to support an Ultra model for an October/November launch and need the extra 4-5 months to get sufficient stock. I presume M5 Ultra (if it exists) will use the same "chiplet" design process as M5 Pro and Max so it could possibly be released with them and we will see a general refresh of the entire Mac desktop line simultaneously with the more powerful MacBook Pros and then with M6 onward Apple could be able release all the portable and desktop models together on all four (or even five) SoC models if they wish.

M5 is way faster in single core performance and even reaching M4 pro level multi-core performance. This lineup doesn’t make any sense as IRL workload single core’s performance is the king and M5 lower end MBP will outperform the best Mac Studio and MacBook Pro 16.

One presumes people buying Max-class SoCs are not doing so because their workload is primarily bound to one performance CPU core.

Getting a higher end product that came with this much trade off is unheard of for any consumer grade computers.

MacBook Pro (Max), Mac Studio (Max and Ultra) and Mac Pro (Ultra) are arguably not "consumer grade" computers.

 

[MikeZTM]

You can use the same argument to not buying a new MacBook Air on release as it also is 7-8 months away for a new base MacBook to launch with a new generation of SoC.

But if you need a new Studio or new Air when they launch in March or soon after, waiting another half-year-plus to get something "better" - and also more expensive and in a possibly less-convenient form factor - either may not be an option or the value proposition for that "better" SoC is not sufficient to justify waiting for it.




My guess is that for M2-M4 Apple+TSMC do not have sufficient stock of Max SoCs to support an Ultra model for an October/November launch and need the extra 4-5 months to get sufficient stock. I presume M5 Ultra (if it exists) will use the same "chiplet" design process as M5 Pro and Max so it could possibly be released with them and we will see a general refresh of the entire Mac desktop line simultaneously with the more powerful MacBook Pros and then with M6 onward Apple should be able release all the portable and desktop models together on all four (or even five) SoC models if they wish.



One presumes people buying Max-class SoCs are not doing so because their workload is not primarily bound to one performance CPU core.



MacBook Pro (Max), Mac Studio (Max and Ultra) and Mac Pro (Ultra) are arguably not "consumer grade" computers.

Until they got ECC memory I will always consider them consumer grade.

And I just want a programmer’s machine that could also be my main rig for everything plus local LLM (except gaming). I’m tired to use a MacBook for this and there’s no good replacement for that. M4 Pro mini were good enough but 64GB RAM was just too small for me. By the time M4 Max studio came out I feel like I was a clown waiting for that and should just got the MacBook Pro earlier.

I feel more frustrated when I saw M3 Ultra — that is the only option for 512GB ram while missing SME instruction support and much lower GPU clock.

I’m hoping to get a 192-256GB machine with M5 GPU architecture soon and maybe I should just get a MacBook and use it in clamshell.

 

[ignatius345]

Not a big deal. These don't need to keep being rushed out. The M4 Pro, M4 Max, and M3 Ultra chips are more than enough right now. Investors need to relax, stop trying to appease them.

The Mac is also not a gigantic slice of the pie, let's remember. And when you're talking about people waffling on a purchase waiting for M5 Macs, it's gotta be a tiny slice of that slice.

 

[Ursadorable]

Maybe they're trying to see if they can salvage the disaster called liquid glass by making the cases from the stuff.