Waiting for Skylake MBP thread

[sentential]

There is no chance of that
BTW the main improvement Intel taughts for Skylake is reduced platform power. Reducing the power consumption of everything around the plain CPU cores. That should be show through most in real battery life (not advertised) for the quad cores which still aren't true SoCs as of Haswell.
Performance improvements should be minor at best.
Essentially Skylake is the improved bug reduced version of Broadwell. 2nd Gen 14nm.

You go on about first gen problems but that is Broadwell. Skylake should be like Haswell. And Intel was so delayed with the 14nm launch that some Broadwells got so delayed that they just put the already finished skylake into the production line. That is why it is very possible that they deliver them by the end of the year. They replace what would have been Broadwell quad cores in the production line.

Honestly I've got enough that if I wanted to buy it the moment it comes out I could. Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to **** all over the platform, it does a lot of interesting things and I plan on building and overclocking the hell out of Skylake.....on desktop with aftermarket cooling. I just don't think it will be a good mobile platform, I've seen it before and it'll happen again.

Just remember there are 2 things going on here, the transistor node and the architecture design. It'll be Intel's second crack at 14nm node but it'll be the first time at the Skylake platform. Normally new arch is problem prone, specifically with high rates of defects and TDP issues, this is across the board with just about everyone.

The problem is the 14nm node is a disaster and I've yet to read anything indicating they have the node figured out much less a new arch. New arch on a new-ish node is normally a recipe for disaster. It's been done before like it was with nVidia's Fermi and others but normally it doesn't go well. But I'll grant you that each node is different but if you go by the last couple of years:

-Nehalem (45nm) Old node, new arch. Great performance & scaling, terrible TDP

-Westmere (32nm) New node, old arch. Typical die shrink, good power, minimal performance gain

-Sandybridge (32nm) Old node, totally new arch. One of the few that went very well and arguably the best Intel CPU in the last 10 years

-Ivy Bridge (22nm) New node, old arch. Terrible, terrible, terrible. Little gains, refused to scale without enormous hit to power

-Haswell (22nm) old node, old-ish arch. Also terrible, same problem as Ivy, wouldn't scale without massive power hit, OK at lower freq, decent power consumption

-Broadwell (14nm) new node, old-ish arch. Heavily delayed, again same problem as Ivy, wouldn't scale at higher freq but great power at lower speeds

-Skylake (14nm) old node, totally new arch.

I guess we'll see how it does but I'm not convinced, sorry. The trend has been that at lower speeds and few cores the new nodes do quite well but the moment you try to scale it to production the whole thing falls apart. The reason why we don't have a Broadwell Macbook is because the 14nm node is jacked up. If it were working well I'd say godspeed but I think it's way too risky to roll the dice on a new arch on a problematic node in a laptop. They'll make it, sure, but it'll be heavily delayed and the only chips you'll find are the ones you don't want, just like it is now.

By the time they get Skylake under control it'll be damn near time for Cannonlake which IMO is the safer bet. I may eat my words but honestly I wouldn't bet the farm on this one chip. I'd love to be pleasantly surprised and be completely wrong but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[wct097]

Do you think Intel would be planning September releases of Skylake procs if they weren't pretty well beyond the problem stages you describe? That is only 4 months away. I can't imagine that 4 months out they're still working out the kinks with hopes of getting them ironed out just before they're officially available. I expect chips are already available to manufacturers. There are already purported reports of benchmarks for those chips showing up.

Between the leaked release schedule and benchmarks, I'd say that those are pretty good signs that Skylake's release is imminent.

I'm holding out hope that Skylake is the next Sandy Bridge. I've been exceptionally happy with my Sandy Bridge and Ivy Bridge powered machines. I'm planning to refresh both with Skylake.

 

[Gildarts]

My reasoning for waiting on Cannonlake is because it is a known architecture and normally cost and power reduction come on the die shrink. This time has been a little different but did happen once before going to 45nm down from 65nm. Example (sorry first I could find on google)

http://www.fudzilla.com/news/processors/12336-intel-has-more-45nm-problems-than-admitted

Broadwell should have been the chip to buy and frankly I would take Broadwell over Skylake. Most of the truly new and innovative changes for Skylake are reserved for the Xeons like the low power DDR4 and the update to SSE and AVX

http://www.fudzilla.com/news/processors/37844-intel-leaks-purley-details

All of this should make it to Cannonlake plus most likely PCI-E 4.0. None of this is on Skylake. Each time there's a new die shrink its been harder and harder to get decent yields this time is no different.

Intel hasn't proven they've got a grip on the current node much less a new arch on it. I just don't think it's wise for Skylake to be put on this kind of pedestal. Given what I've seen and what I've heard I think people are probably going to be disappointed and wish they bought something earlier.

If the new MacBooks with Skylake come this year and it's only 5% better and you lose an hour of battery life what then?

Is 5% worth missing out on the current back to school sales only to wait unti August of the following year to get a discount? Hell I just walked out of bestbuy and got them to match the student discount of $2299 plus an additional 10% movers coupon AND the $50 off coupon. Not to mention plus $5 in Ibotta plus a good $60 in reward points plus my 2% cash back.

If you buy in either at the iPad launch this year or in Feb of next odds are you're gonna pay the full $2500 and for what?

You can always get a student discount from Apple no matter if it's back to school season.

Also, I think you're focussing to much on the chip improvements in regards to Skylake. It's about the next generation MPB (and the next generation of computing at that).

Intel has stated Skylake will be it's most innovating product of the decade.

But like I said. Not focussing on the chip improvements Skylake is expected to come/be accompanied with:

- A redesign of the MBP (all metal body, new color options)
- WiGig/wifi 802.11ad
- Thunderbolt 3
- Displayport 1.3
- USB-C
- Wireless charging and connecting to displays.

For me? Just the next generation Wifi and the redesign is enough to wait.
I really don't like the size of the speaker grills on the 15" MBP.

People wear headphones anyways. Sell them some beats, make the chassis smaller.

Portability is key.

 

[newellj]

You can always get a student discount from Apple no matter if it's back to school season.

Also, I think you're focussing to much on the chip improvements in regards to Skylake. It's about the next generation MPB (and the next generation of computing at that).

Intel has stated Skylake will be it's most innovating product of the decade.

But like I said. Not focussing on the chip improvements Skylake is expected to come/be accompanied with:

- A redesign of the MBP (all metal body, new color options)
- WiGig/wifi 802.11ad
- Thunderbolt 3
- Displayport 1.3
- USB-C
- Wireless charging and connecting to displays.

For me? Just the next generation Wifi and the redesign is enough to wait.
I really don't like the size of the speaker grills on the 15" MBP.

People wear headphones anyways. Sell them some beats, make the chassis smaller.

Portability is key.

Expected by whom? Some of those (wireless charging, for example) are probably years away.

 

[sentential]

Also, I think you're focussing to much on the chip improvements in regards to Skylake. It's about the next generation MPB (and the next generation of computing at that).

Intel has stated Skylake will be it's most innovating product of the decade.

But like I said. Not focussing on the chip improvements Skylake is expected to come/be accompanied with:

- A redesign of the MBP (all metal body, new color options)
- WiGig/wifi 802.11ad
- Thunderbolt 3
- Displayport 1.3
- USB-C
- Wireless charging and connecting to displays.

For me? Just the next generation Wifi and the redesign is enough to wait.
I really don't like the size of the speaker grills on the 15" MBP.

People wear headphones anyways. Sell them some beats, make the chassis smaller.

Portability is key.

Fair enough, Rezence is definitely a step in the right direction no doubt, WiGig? eh its not durable enough to be really useful yet, hell it won't penetrate walls at this point and needs direct line of sight. That's more of a wireless thunderbolt than anything, which could be cool given the right application. Other stuff is mostly fluff.

Also just be careful now Intel never said Skylake was the biggest innovative product they've introduced in the last decade; They said the "Purley" platform is, aka Skylake-E Xeons and it is, BUT that platform will not be a part of the Skylake that everyone here will end up buying, not until much later; more like around the time Cannonlake or perhaps later launches.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/27/intel_purley_xeon_chips/

Expected by whom? Some of those (wireless charging, for example) are probably years away.

No he's correct, the name for each of those is called Rezence for the wireless charging and WiGiG for the wireless in question and they are requirement of the Skylake platform per Intel both of which will be available at launch (whenever that is, most likely Xmas 2015)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick...tels-skylake-promises-cable-less-pcs-in-2015/

 

[newellj]

Fair enough, Rezence is definitely a step in the right direction no doubt, WiGig? eh its not durable enough to be really useful yet, hell it won't penetrate walls at this point and needs direct line of sight. That's more of a wireless thunderbolt than anything, which could be cool given the right application. Other stuff is mostly fluff.

Also just be careful now Intel never said Skylake was the biggest innovative product they've introduced in the last decade; They said the "Purley" platform is, aka Skylake-E Xeons and it is, BUT that platform will not be a part of the Skylake that everyone here will end up buying, not until much later; more like around the time Cannonlake or perhaps later launches.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/27/intel_purley_xeon_chips/



No he's correct, the name for each of those is called Rezence for the wireless charging and WiGiG for the wireless in question and they are requirement of the Skylake platform per Intel both of which will be available at launch (whenever that is, most likely Xmas 2015)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick...tels-skylake-promises-cable-less-pcs-in-2015/

I will need to replace my rMBP this year then, because if Apple rolls out wireless charging in the rMBP line before 12/31/15, I will actually eat this rMBP. Among other things, that would require a complete redesign of the machine - we would have seen leaks by now...we're talking seven months. Five, really, because if they're going to hit the Xmas sales, the machines need (ahem) to be on the shelves (ahem) ready to sell (ahem) by mid-/late-October of this year. I expect the end of world-wide hunger and the permanent onset of world-wide peace and reconciliation sooner...

Convince me otherwise? I'm open to facts and arguments to the contrary.

 

[clovehitch]

You can always get a student discount from Apple no matter if it's back to school season.

Also, I think you're focussing to much on the chip improvements in regards to Skylake. It's about the next generation MPB (and the next generation of computing at that).

Intel has stated Skylake will be it's most innovating product of the decade.

But like I said. Not focussing on the chip improvements Skylake is expected to come/be accompanied with:

- A redesign of the MBP (all metal body, new color options)
- WiGig/wifi 802.11ad
- Thunderbolt 3
- Displayport 1.3
- USB-C
- Wireless charging and connecting to displays.

For me? Just the next generation Wifi and the redesign is enough to wait.
I really don't like the size of the speaker grills on the 15" MBP.

People wear headphones anyways. Sell them some beats, make the chassis smaller.

Portability is key.

Good post. If they eliminate the side-by-side speakers, I'll need to sell my early 2015 MBP. If not I'll keep both.

 

[sentential]

I will need to replace my rMBP this year then, because if Apple rolls out wireless charging in the rMBP line before 12/31/15, I will actually eat this rMBP. Among other things, that would require a complete redesign of the machine - we would have seen leaks by now...we're talking seven months. Five, really, because if they're going to hit the Xmas sales, the machines need (ahem) to be on the shelves (ahem) ready to sell (ahem) by mid-/late-October of this year. I expect the end of world-wide hunger and the permanent onset of world-wide peace and reconciliation sooner...

Convince me otherwise? I'm open to facts and arguments to the contrary.

This is 100% my argument plus I'd add that given this is a new arch on a ****** node I'd inclined to pass even if does launch this year.

I personally feel we won't see any Skylake MacBooks of any shape or form until April '16 at the earliest. They're just not ready, desktop is sure but mobile? Total pipedream. The odds of seeing Skylake-U and Skylake-Y MacBooks by year's end is very VERY slim.

Honestly people ought to load up on coupons like I did and buy now unless you're willing to wait another year. But by then you'll hear clamoring about Cannonlake (which will TOTALLY be worth it) and by then you're talking damn near mid-2017

Honestly Broadwell was the chip to get in theory, damn shame they can't get decent yields on them. I would have loved to have one

 

[mcarling]

why is everyone saying that a late Oct/early Nov release of new MBP is unlikely?

Apple was badly burned a few years ago by releasing a new iMac too late in the year. They were unable to ramp up production fast enough to meet holiday shopping demand. Apple will not make this mistake again.

Essentially Skylake is the improved bug reduced version of Broadwell. 2nd Gen 14nm.

No. About 99% of CPU bugs are introduced with new micro-architectures, not die shrinks. The difficulty of die shrinks is yield, not bugs. The difficulty of new architectures is bugs, not yield.

The problem is the 14nm node is a disaster....

No, Intel's 14nm process took longer to develop than planned. Now it's fine and Intel are converting their fabs.

New arch on a new-ish node is normally a recipe for disaster. It's been done before like it was with nVidia's Fermi and others but normally it doesn't go well.

Complete nonsense. When I worked for Intel (before Tick-Tock) it was normal to introduce die shrinks and new architectures simultaneously. Tick-Tock is a better approach, but "recipe for disaster" is a wild exaggeration and "normally it doesn't go well" is not historically accurate.

Do you think Intel would be planning September releases of Skylake procs if they weren't pretty well beyond the problem stages you describe? That is only 4 months away. I can't imagine that 4 months out they're still working out the kinks with hopes of getting them ironed out just before they're officially available.

In the case of a Tock (such as Skylake), Intel are still working out CPU bugs four months before shipping. In the case of a Tick (such as Broadwell), Intel are struggling to get the yields up four months before shipping.

I expect chips are already available to manufacturers. There are already purported reports of benchmarks for those chips showing up.

Major manufacturers start getting samples (which in the case of Tocks are seriously buggy) about a year before they ship.

I will need to replace my rMBP this year then, because if Apple rolls out wireless charging in the rMBP line before 12/31/15, I will actually eat this rMBP.

I think your risk is quite low.

BTW, I received my mid-2015 15" rMBP today. Yay!

 

[Gildarts]

Expected by whom? Some of those (wireless charging, for example) are probably years away.

Didn't you see the Intel demo last year?

It's already here.

----------

Also just be careful now Intel never said Skylake was the biggest innovative product they've introduced in the last decade; They said the "Purley" platform is, aka Skylake-E Xeons and it is, BUT that platform will not be a part of the Skylake that everyone here will end up buying, not until much later; more like around the time Cannonlake or perhaps later launches.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/05/27/intel_purley_xeon_chips/

Did not know this. Thanks sport, I'll stop spouting this around then.

Still think it's worth the wait!

 

[Kulfon]

WWDC is June 8th, I think. Let's see what is going to be mentioned when it comes to MBP.

 

[fat jez]

WWDC is June 8th, I think. Let's see what is going to be mentioned when it comes to MBP.

Nothing. We've had our refresh

 

[maflynn]

WWDC is June 8th, I think. Let's see what is going to be mentioned when it comes to MBP.

Why would apple release a refresh on May 19th, only to do a refresh on June 8th? No I don't think we'll see anything from apple with regards to the MBP during WWDC

 

[fat jez]

Why would apple release a refresh on May 19th, only to do a refresh on June 8th? No I don't think we'll see anything from apple with regards to the MBP during WWDC

Agreed. Given the recent launches and refreshes and the refresh cycle of iPhone and iPad, this one is going to be about software.

 

[Gildarts]

Agreed. Given the recent launches and refreshes and the refresh cycle of iPhone and iPad, this one is going to be about software.

This. Apple has increasingly focused WWDC on software. Last year there weren't any hardware announcements if I remember correctly.

I don't expect it to be different this year. They have plenty to talk about in regards to software.

However there may be an exception this year with regards to Apple TV.

 

[fat jez]

Ha, to be fair, I'd forgotten Apple TV. That could well get a mention.

 

[maflynn]

This. Apple has increasingly focused WWDC on software. Last year there weren't any hardware announcements if I remember correctly.

Since they announced hardware in 2013, its hard to say that apple is moving away from hardware announcements at WWDC, that is one year does not make a pattern. I'll counter that assessment in that with the high visibility of the keynote and it being carried by all major media outlets. It makes a lot of sense for them to make hardware announcements.

For 2015, there's not much else they can announce, other then maybe a major update to the apple tv as you mention, but also a possible iPad pro. Those rumors keep kicking around, i.e., apple may have a 12" iPad in the works.

 

[actuallyinaus]

Maybe they'll finally release a new external monitor?

 

[newellj]

Didn't you see the Intel demo last year?

It's already here.

----------



Did not know this. Thanks sport, I'll stop spouting this around then.

Still think it's worth the wait!

The tech, sure. On the shelf for sale, in an Apple notebook with a 100Wh battery? Years away.

 

[Kulfon]

Maybe they'll finally release a new external monitor?

This is my hope.

 

[Gildarts]

Since they announced hardware in 2013, its hard to say that apple is moving away from hardware announcements at WWDC, that is one year does not make a pattern. I'll counter that assessment in that with the high visibility of the keynote and it being carried by all major media outlets. It makes a lot of sense for them to make hardware announcements.

For 2015, there's not much else they can announce, other then maybe a major update to the apple tv as you mention, but also a possible iPad pro. Those rumors keep kicking around, i.e., apple may have a 12" iPad in the works.

I don't know about all that. They only announced a new MBA in 2013 and some AirPort stuff. Nothing major (sneak peak at the Mac Pro).

WWDC has been and is primarily a developer conference. I think it's safe to say that at WWDC 2014 they discussed a lot of developer focused subjects to an extent that they hadn't done before. I'm thinking Metal, SpriteKit, Sandboxing, Swift, WatchKit, Homekit etc.

iPad has it's own event/seasonality.

I don't think products announcements are made based on the weight of coverage by media.

But you're right WWDC, because it's not bound to a specific product, is pretty much a wild gamble.

I'm just thinking software/services, Beats music and if we're lucky Apple TV.
But based on the rumors here on MR there's some trouble with Apple TV contract negotiations.

There's enough to cover just on the software side. Apple Maps being a big one.

Your guess is as good is mine sport.

----------

The tech, sure. On the shelf for sale, in an Apple notebook with a 100Wh battery? Years away.

That's why it's coming

 

[wct097]

The odds of seeing Skylake-U and Skylake-Y MacBooks by year's end is very VERY slim.

I agree, but not for the same reasons. Skylake-U and Y chips are low power dual core that use low power DDR3 RAM. I think they'll use Skylake H chips.

In the case of a Tock (such as Skylake), Intel are still working out CPU bugs four months before shipping. In the case of a Tick (such as Broadwell), Intel are struggling to get the yields up four months before shipping.

Right, but that would be par for the course, right? Having the experience you've had working at Intel do you think it's likely that they'll slip their targeted release of September 2015? Would you agree that Intel's assertion that Broadwell's delays won't impact Skylake's release?

 

[maflynn]

I don't know about all that. They only announced a new MBA in 2013 and some AirPort stuff. Nothing major (sneak peak at the Mac Pro).

Here's a list of what apple has announced in WWDC and you can see they have a long history of doing so. No hardware is the exception not the norm.

• 2004 New Cinema Displays
• 2005 PowerPC processors to Intel ones
• 2006 Intro of the Mac Pro desktop;
  [*]2007 No hardware
• 2008 iPhone 3G
• 2009 iPhone 3GS; new 13" MacBook Pro
• 2010 iPhone 4
  [*]2011 No hardware
• 2012 15" MacBook Pro with Retina display; MacBook Airs with new processors
• 2013 preview of all-new Mac Pro; updated MacBook Airs;
  [*]2014 No hardware

 

[mcarling]

Right, but that would be par for the course, right?

Every release is different because the number and severity of issues is different each time. It's difficult to say what par is. We don't have a statistically significant data set, especially because it's difficult to discern trends from variation.

Having the experience you've had working at Intel do you think it's likely that they'll slip their targeted release of September 2015?

That's difficult to evaluate because I don't know when the September 2015 date was current. Leaked documents are sometimes (often?) out-of-date at the time they are leaked. I just received my mid-2015 15" rMBP yesterday. That is probably the best indicator of my expectations regarding the timing of the Skylake MBP release. For me, March 2016 would be the least surprising release date, but I cannot rule out an October 2015 release. Anytime from a few weeks before Thanksgiving to Chinese New Year makes no sense for releasing new Apple hardware.

Would you agree that Intel's assertion that Broadwell's delays won't impact Skylake's release?

I would agree that Broadwell's delays shouldn't impact the timing of the initial Skylake release. However, Intel seem to have considerably less 14nm production capacity on-line now than they would usually have before a Tock release, so the duration over which different Skylake parts will be released will probably be longer than usual for a Tock, perhaps stretched out more like a typical Tick.

 

[Gildarts]

Here's a list of what apple has announced in WWDC and you can see they have a long history of doing so. No hardware is the exception not the norm.

• 2004 New Cinema Displays
• 2005 PowerPC processors to Intel ones
• 2006 Intro of the Mac Pro desktop;
  [*]2007 No hardware
• 2008 iPhone 3G
• 2009 iPhone 3GS; new 13" MacBook Pro
• 2010 iPhone 4
  [*]2011 No hardware
• 2012 15" MacBook Pro with Retina display; MacBook Airs with new processors
• 2013 preview of all-new Mac Pro; updated MacBook Airs;
  [*]2014 No hardware

Looking at the last five years it's 3 times a hardware announcement, 2 times no hardware announcements. So there a good chance for hardware announcements this year.

This list actually proves a good point since iPhones now have their own seasonality/event. So basically, things can change.

We'll see what happens in a few weeks. If we get any hardware that would be great.

I'll be happy to just see Craig Federighi. He's great, love that guy.