At one point I thought they would release 2.0 slightly early, but I now I really don't think they will. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to have it early so I can play around with the apps. It will keep me busy while waiting for the 3G phone.
After the 3G phone is released in NZ, that also means the 2.0 firmware has to be posted. What if people have trouble and need to reset, the files need to be made available.
They could prevent premature release of the firmware with geofiltering. However, will iTunes not install the firmware from another country ? I can't imagine Apple having a separate build for every country.
They might be able to do some funky stuff with the signed images.
One can only hope