What delivery date will cause you to skip the iPhone X?

Discussion in 'iPhone' started by lotsalag, Sep 15, 2017.

  1. lotsalag macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    All evidence points to the iPhone X having the worst availability of any iPhone ever.

    First, we have record high levels of demand:
    • An unprecedented 55 launch countries (ie hundreds of millions more potential buyers than any other launch in iPhone history)
    • Very little demand for the iPhone 8 (ie everyone is waiting for the iPhone X)
    • The first major redesign of the iPhone since the iPhone 6 (ie everyone is looking for a new form)
    • The redesign was expected (ie everyone knew that the tenth anniversary iPhone would be different, and therefore many people have held off on upgrading -- huge pent-up demand)
    Second, we have extremely low levels of supply:
    • Reports of a mere 10,000 units/day
    • Reports that supply will not meet demand until sometime in the first half of 2018
    • Low yield for OLED panels (ie it is difficult to ramp up production)
    As a result, delivery times are likely to slip to 2018 within seconds of orders opening on October 27.

    What delivery date will cause you to give up and skip the iPhone X in favour of its successor?

    For me, it is March 12, 2018 because that is half way through the product cycle (6 months from September 12, 2017). By then, we should be getting an idea of what the iPhone X's successor will look like.

    How about you?
  2. joeblow7777 macrumors 603

    Sep 7, 2010
    I know this doesn't answer your question, but I think that the availability issues are probably being overstated. If delivery dates end up 6 months back within the first hours of pre-orders, It shouldn't have been launched this year.
  3. lotsalag thread starter macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    I certainly hope you are right and I am wrong!
  4. chfilm macrumors 68000


    Nov 15, 2012
    Yea I think it will be like getting a jet black last year, or a cto Mac pro back in 2013 like up to 12 weeks maybe but not longer, no way.
    My biggest question is, will there be store pickups on nov 2nd?
  5. BeeGood macrumors 68000


    Sep 15, 2013
    Lot 23E. Somewhere in Georgia.
    Agreed and was just about to post this. You might as well shelve it until the following fall of its going to be six months out.

    As for the OP, I don’t think dates will slip into 2018 that fast. The iPhone makes money in the fourth quarter and Apple is already up against the wall with such a late launch. They need to have as many devices as possible ship before Christmas.
  6. BasicGreatGuy Contributor


    Sep 21, 2012
    In the middle of several books.
    If a delivery date of a few weeks to a few months (in and of itself) causes one to not want to get the new iPhone X, it might behoove said person to sternly reconsider the motivation to get a phone in the first place.

    Only wanting the latest and greatest at every moment is very superficial, in my opinion. It is only good for bragging rights on forums such as this. I think life is more meaningful than that.
  7. joeblow7777 macrumors 603

    Sep 7, 2010
    Well, if we're setting six months backorder as the deal breaker date, how fast do you think it will reach that point?
  8. Dirtydutch macrumors 6502a


    Sep 19, 2015
    Yea I agree. I honestly think the most they hit is around 6 weeks. I would imagine apple will have plenty of foresight into the production necessary especially with the staggered release.
  9. stabile007 macrumors regular


    Feb 21, 2009
    Philadelphia, PA
    My guess is 3 months before they clear through the backlog.
  10. pat500000 Suspended


    Jun 3, 2015
    HEHE...mac pro 2013...don't need to remind me...sigh...
  11. ValhallaOutcast macrumors regular


    Sep 12, 2017
    has there ever been a launch that had waits longer than 6-8 weeks?
  12. joeblow7777 macrumors 603

    Sep 7, 2010
    Maybe not. Unfortunately though, this is the first launch where 6-8 weeks would mean after the holidays, and that may put some people off.

    To answer the original question, it might not be a deal breaker, but in addition to the holidays, my birthday is in December, and I would be disappointed if I didn't have the phone by then. What better time to make use of an improved camera?
  13. lotsalag thread starter macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    12 weeks already takes us into late January. Very bad.
  14. Relentless Power macrumors Penryn

    Relentless Power

    Jul 12, 2016
    I would be willing to think January is a very likely date someone may not receive their device until around that time frame if they do not pre-order or Later.
  15. Zazoh macrumors 6502a


    Jan 4, 2009
    San Antonio, Texas
    I'm on yearly upgrade program, if we get too far into next year, I might as well pay off the phone I have and start over with the X. So there will be a break point, I just don't know what that is yet. I waited a LONG time for my airpods.
  16. BeefSupreme macrumors regular

    Sep 19, 2012
    If I get my order in at 12:00:05 and I get a delivery date of December, forget it.
  17. Geert76, Sep 15, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2017

    Geert76 macrumors 68000

    Feb 28, 2014
    the Netherlands
    You are joking right?
    Plenty of launches with shipping times far beyond 6-8 weeks.

    and to the OP; I have a very strong feeling that the pre orders of the iPhone X will be similar to last year's jetblack iPhone 7 (Plus) and even worse than that launch, why? you exactly mentioned it allready yourself:

    - first ever worldwide Apple launch (expect literally tens of million people all around the world trying to to get their order in, in lets say 1 or 2 minutes), instead of waves with earlier iPhone releases
    - first ever oled iPhone
    - well known shortage of oled screens

    Add these 3 simple facts up, and just be ready for a big slaughter on oct 27th. It wouldn't surprise me to see an Apple Store App and website traffic of about 20 to 25 million people (from all around the world) all at the same time on oct 27th.
  18. lotsalag thread starter macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    This is exactly the source of my concern. The wait for iPhone Xs could easily eclipse the wait for AirPods.
    --- Post Merged, Sep 15, 2017 ---
    Absolutely right. I think people are being far too complacent in thinking that there won't be huge delays.
  19. CD3660 macrumors 68040


    Jun 6, 2007
    Cheshire, United Kingdom.
    There is nothing like scarcity to stoke up demand. However there is a point when the wait is no longer worthwhile. For me that is the end of January for the iPhone X, i.e. 3 months from launch.
  20. lotsalag thread starter macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    Thanks for your input. I'm starting to think you are right. Once we start getting delivery dates for late January, we might as well start thinking about the next version of the iPhone X.
  21. DblHelix macrumors 6502

    Mar 19, 2009
    Don’t really care. I will just wait it out. Happy with my 7+ and have the upgrade every year. Will just take my lumps and pay the extra and wait until I get it
  22. lotsalag thread starter macrumors member

    Sep 15, 2017
    I admire your patience. If you don't mind, can you order on October 28 to leave stock for the impatient people? :D:D:D
  23. Jimmie Geddes macrumors 6502

    Jun 25, 2007
    I preordered original Space Gray Apple Watch Sport April 10, 2015 less than 5 minutes after preorders opened (official release date was April 24) and didn't receive it until May 19. I hope we don't face a similar fate.
  24. pirarre macrumors 6502

    Feb 10, 2010
    I preordered the iPhone 8P.

    Idk...but I have a strange feeling that the X is going to be hard to get just like the Airpods are now.

    I think most people will start receiving their X in January ..Febuary.
  25. Zune55 macrumors 6502a


    May 2, 2015
    If people see long wait times i guess people will cancel their launch day orders hence other people will get their orders. There will be less demand than supply. People may prefer in store purchase then ordering. If its really the case that people had to wait 6 months for their iphone x i guess then apple will not realease iPhone's successor in 2018. I think its best to not to cancel the order.

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