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What delivery date will cause you to skip the iPhone X?

L

lotsalag

macrumors member
Original poster
Sep 15, 2017
61
48
All evidence points to the iPhone X having the worst availability of any iPhone ever.

First, we have record high levels of demand:
  • An unprecedented 55 launch countries (ie hundreds of millions more potential buyers than any other launch in iPhone history)
  • Very little demand for the iPhone 8 (ie everyone is waiting for the iPhone X)
  • The first major redesign of the iPhone since the iPhone 6 (ie everyone is looking for a new form)
  • The redesign was expected (ie everyone knew that the tenth anniversary iPhone would be different, and therefore many people have held off on upgrading -- huge pent-up demand)
Second, we have extremely low levels of supply:
  • Reports of a mere 10,000 units/day
  • Reports that supply will not meet demand until sometime in the first half of 2018
  • Low yield for OLED panels (ie it is difficult to ramp up production)
As a result, delivery times are likely to slip to 2018 within seconds of orders opening on October 27.

What delivery date will cause you to give up and skip the iPhone X in favour of its successor?

For me, it is March 12, 2018 because that is half way through the product cycle (6 months from September 12, 2017). By then, we should be getting an idea of what the iPhone X's successor will look like.

How about you?
 
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Yea I think it will be like getting a jet black last year, or a cto Mac pro back in 2013 like up to 12 weeks maybe but not longer, no way.
My biggest question is, will there be store pickups on nov 2nd?
 
joeblow7777 said:
I know this doesn't answer your question, but I think that the availability issues are probably being overstated. If delivery dates end up 6 months back within the first hours of pre-orders, It shouldn't have been launched this year.
Click to expand...

Agreed and was just about to post this. You might as well shelve it until the following fall of its going to be six months out.

As for the OP, I don’t think dates will slip into 2018 that fast. The iPhone makes money in the fourth quarter and Apple is already up against the wall with such a late launch. They need to have as many devices as possible ship before Christmas.
 
If a delivery date of a few weeks to a few months (in and of itself) causes one to not want to get the new iPhone X, it might behoove said person to sternly reconsider the motivation to get a phone in the first place.

Only wanting the latest and greatest at every moment is very superficial, in my opinion. It is only good for bragging rights on forums such as this. I think life is more meaningful than that.
 
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joeblow7777 said:
I know this doesn't answer your question, but I think that the availability issues are probably being overstated. If delivery dates end up 6 months back within the first hours of pre-orders, It shouldn't have been launched this year.
Click to expand...
Yea I agree. I honestly think the most they hit is around 6 weeks. I would imagine apple will have plenty of foresight into the production necessary especially with the staggered release.
 
chfilm said:
Yea I think it will be like getting a jet black last year, or a cto Mac pro back in 2013 like up to 12 weeks maybe but not longer, no way.
My biggest question is, will there be store pickups on nov 2nd?
Click to expand...
HEHE...mac pro 2013...don't need to remind me...sigh...
 
ValhallaOutcast said:
has there ever been a launch that had waits longer than 6-8 weeks?
Click to expand...

Maybe not. Unfortunately though, this is the first launch where 6-8 weeks would mean after the holidays, and that may put some people off.

To answer the original question, it might not be a deal breaker, but in addition to the holidays, my birthday is in December, and I would be disappointed if I didn't have the phone by then. What better time to make use of an improved camera?
 
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chfilm said:
Yea I think it will be like getting a jet black last year, or a cto Mac pro back in 2013 like up to 12 weeks maybe but not longer, no way.
Click to expand...

12 weeks already takes us into late January. Very bad.
 
lotsalag said:
12 weeks already takes us into late January. Very bad.
Click to expand...

I would be willing to think January is a very likely date someone may not receive their device until around that time frame if they do not pre-order or Later.
 
ValhallaOutcast said:
has there ever been a launch that had waits longer than 6-8 weeks?
Click to expand...

You are joking right?
Plenty of launches with shipping times far beyond 6-8 weeks.

and to the OP; I have a very strong feeling that the pre orders of the iPhone X will be similar to last year's jetblack iPhone 7 (Plus) and even worse than that launch, why? you exactly mentioned it allready yourself:

- first ever worldwide Apple launch (expect literally tens of million people all around the world trying to to get their order in, in lets say 1 or 2 minutes), instead of waves with earlier iPhone releases
- first ever oled iPhone
- well known shortage of oled screens

Add these 3 simple facts up, and just be ready for a big slaughter on oct 27th. It wouldn't surprise me to see an Apple Store App and website traffic of about 20 to 25 million people (from all around the world) all at the same time on oct 27th.
 
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Zazoh said:
I waited a LONG time for my airpods.
Click to expand...

This is exactly the source of my concern. The wait for iPhone Xs could easily eclipse the wait for AirPods.
[doublepost=1505539018][/doublepost]
Geert76 said:
Add these 3 up and be ready for a big slaughter on oct 27th.
Click to expand...

Absolutely right. I think people are being far too complacent in thinking that there won't be huge delays.
 
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There is nothing like scarcity to stoke up demand. However there is a point when the wait is no longer worthwhile. For me that is the end of January for the iPhone X, i.e. 3 months from launch.
 
CD3660 said:
For me that is the end of January for the iPhone X, i.e. 3 months from launch.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your input. I'm starting to think you are right. Once we start getting delivery dates for late January, we might as well start thinking about the next version of the iPhone X.
 
Don’t really care. I will just wait it out. Happy with my 7+ and have the upgrade every year. Will just take my lumps and pay the extra and wait until I get it
 
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I preordered original Space Gray Apple Watch Sport April 10, 2015 less than 5 minutes after preorders opened (official release date was April 24) and didn't receive it until May 19. I hope we don't face a similar fate.
 
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I preordered the iPhone 8P.

Idk...but I have a strange feeling that the X is going to be hard to get just like the Airpods are now.

I think most people will start receiving their X in January ..Febuary.
 
lotsalag said:
All evidence points to the iPhone X having the worst availability of any iPhone ever.

First, we have record high levels of demand:
  • An unprecedented 55 launch countries (ie hundreds of millions more potential buyers than any other launch in iPhone history)
  • Very little demand for the iPhone 8 (ie everyone is waiting for the iPhone X)
  • The first major redesign of the iPhone since the iPhone 6 (ie everyone is looking for a new form)
  • The redesign was expected (ie everyone knew that the tenth anniversary iPhone would be different, and therefore many people have held off on upgrading -- huge pent-up demand)
Second, we have extremely low levels of supply:
  • Reports of a mere 10,000 units/day
  • Reports that supply will not meet demand until sometime in the first half of 2018
  • Low yield for OLED panels (ie it is difficult to ramp up production)
As a result, delivery times are likely to slip to 2018 within seconds of orders opening on October 27.

What delivery date will cause you to give up and skip the iPhone X in favour of its successor?

For me, it is March 12, 2018 because that is half way through the product cycle (6 months from September 12, 2017). By then, we should be getting an idea of what the iPhone X's successor will look like.

How about you?
Click to expand...

If people see long wait times i guess people will cancel their launch day orders hence other people will get their orders. There will be less demand than supply. People may prefer in store purchase then ordering. If its really the case that people had to wait 6 months for their iphone x i guess then apple will not realease iPhone's successor in 2018. I think its best to not to cancel the order.
 
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