Fascinating that a poorly received pricing announcement could knock $25 billion off their valuation in less than 24 hours.
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What to Expect at Apple's 'Spring Forward' Media Event
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It's a new Apple product, it will be a hit initially. There will be a shortage, you won't be able to buy the cheaper one for months, etc, etc. The marketing is already in place and has been carefully orchestrated for several months now. The artificial must have desire is there. People will buy it sight unseen just because it's Apple.
$750.00 for a watch that can barely exist without a phone?!?!?........I-DONT-THINK-SO!!!
The majority of SS buyers im sure are planning to buy the watch and their choice of band to go along with it. At 750 for the watch, people will have spent upwards of $1000 for the SS. I just don't see it.
Sport 38: 349
Sport 42: 399
SS 38: 449
SS 42: 599
Black 38: 449
Black 42: 599
Gold 38: ???
Gold 42: ???
My guess that the price difference between the sizes of each style will be minimal because you're only paying for a size jump. You aren't paying for more memory or a larger battery. The only reason why there is two different sizes is because people's wrists are different sizes.
And as far as the SS being $350 higher in price than the sport, I just don't see that either. Apple will price these watches comfortably. If you are going to buy the 48 sport but really want a SS, you aren't going to settle for the 38 SS. You're gonna want the 48 SS. So the price difference for you would be $100. That price jump is significant enough to make a person not buy the SS over the sport.
i just don't think Apple will be so stuck on the materials when it comes to pricing these watches. I'm one who thinks even the edition won't be as crazily priced as some analyst believe. The edition is just a tool for Apple to sale the sport and SS. ITS A MEDIA PIECE!
Realistically, at $2500, Apple keeps the everyday joe's hands off of the edition which is really what they want. They only want to see the LeBrons, the Paris Hiltons, and the Bruno Mars' with that watch. If they can do that, they can sale more sports and SS watches. The edition doesn't have to be upwards of $1000 to do the job. Just priced to stay off the wrists of the middle class.
The majority of SS buyers im sure are planning to buy the watch and their choice of band to go along with it. At 750 for the watch, people will have spent upwards of $1000 for the SS. I just don't see it.
Sport 38: 349
Sport 42: 399
SS 38: 449
SS 42: 599
Black 38: 449
Black 42: 599
Gold 38: ???
Gold 42: ???
My guess that the price difference between the sizes of each style will be minimal because you're only paying for a size jump. You aren't paying for more memory or a larger battery. The only reason why there is two different sizes is because people's wrists are different sizes.
And as far as the SS being $350 higher in price than the sport, I just don't see that either. Apple will price these watches comfortably. If you are going to buy the 48 sport but really want a SS, you aren't going to settle for the 38 SS. You're gonna want the 48 SS. So the price difference for you would be $100. That price jump is significant enough to make a person not buy the SS over the sport.
i just don't think Apple will be so stuck on the materials when it comes to pricing these watches. I'm one who thinks even the edition won't be as crazily priced as some analyst believe. The edition is just a tool for Apple to sale the sport and SS. ITS A MEDIA PIECE!
Realistically, at $2500, Apple keeps the everyday joe's hands off of the edition which is really what they want. They only want to see the LeBrons, the Paris Hiltons, and the Bruno Mars' with that watch. If they can do that, they can sale more sports and SS watches. The edition doesn't have to be upwards of $1000 to do the job. Just priced to stay off the wrists of the middle class.
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I think you guys are pretty close, like ± $50 or so across all the variants.
Yeah, I think you're right on, re: Gruber.
I don't really follow him much any longer though I used to listen to TTS on 5x5 where he seemed to have some critical insight. I think he mostly just picks up things from other sources, and very likely has a couple of mid-level product manager type people in Apple that occasionally do a controlled leak to him.
I still wonder if we'll be surprised and the gold is cheaper than Gruber thinks, since it's not actually solid gold, but a mix of ceramic and gold. That to me seems like it would be cheaper. Here's what I would guess
Sport $349
Steel $549
Edition $1099
Sport $349
Steel $549
Edition $1099
This is the bind apple has created. They have to show that they are still innovating but the bar for that innovation is ridiculously high. People (particularly the people on these forums) aren't impressed by software updates alone. So Apple has to push out new products, but those products often seem to trump some of the software focus.
I think the sport and SS watches will come with a sport band. I think that's how they'll package them.
If you want another sport band, it should be reasonably priced (50 dollars or less).
Other bands will be priced accordingly. I think leather will come in starting around 100 bucks and the metal bands starting around 150.
Edition is another matter, because those watches and their bands include gold. I'm thinking Edition pricing will include leather band.
If you want another sport band, it should be reasonably priced (50 dollars or less).
Other bands will be priced accordingly. I think leather will come in starting around 100 bucks and the metal bands starting around 150.
Edition is another matter, because those watches and their bands include gold. I'm thinking Edition pricing will include leather band.
They'll need to charge more than 2500 bucks to keep any regular "folks" in the upper middle class away from that watch if they want it. LOL.
I'm no LeBron or whatever, and I could buy one of those without going hungry.
I think it'll need to start well above 5k to make 2%ers (as I like to call upper middle class earners) think twice about it if it's something that they really want.
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Zing!
I can't remember where I saw this but that's basically the standard process when dealing with steel or watchmaking. Machinery can't do it anyway, that there is just marketing.
I ask this every time there is an event (because for some reason, classes don't get canceled for Apple events): When will the spoiler-free thread be posted, and where? It's not the most important thing, but it is convenient for those of use who like to be surprised by watching the whole event and not having prior knowledge. Thanks!
I think it's a live stream.
The link might well be more expensive than many expect, but remember that Gruber is also pricing the leather loop as a $500 premium over the plastic band. Where, even on Planet Ultimate Luxury, do leather watch bands sell for $500?
Agreed. $150 is an upsell, $400 is a different product. I could see maybe an extra $150 for the 42mm SS Space Black watch and another $150 for the link bracelet, but not Gruber's $1999.
Evidently he's been talking to a lot of self-styled horologists and wants to preempt his techie audience's presumed sticker shock. I used to work for a company that made watch winders, so I'm pretty with what the market for mechanical watches will bear. Apple has economies of scale that no Swiss watchmaker has, and link bracelets that aren't precious metals are rarely over $100.
I do, however, think there's a kernel of truth to the operational efficiency argument. Stainless steel isn't materially much more costly than aluminum, but it does require more tooling, especially to achieve the high tolerances Apple's link bracelets seem to have. Mass production on the fluoroelastomer and aluminum bands is definitely less capital and labor intensive.
Bottom line: I expect my preferred configuration of SS Space Black with Link Bracelet to weigh in at $849. Can't wait to see who's predictions wind up as claim chowder.
I don't think the Apple Watch is going to cost as much as Gruber says for one key reason:
Samsung and Pebble.
Apple is putting so much into marketing this watch that it's going to make people want a smart watch. This means Samsung and Pebble will very quickly duplicate whatever Apple makes, at a lower price. People are willing to pay more for Apple's products, but it's never by these huge margins that Grubar is guessing.
Current smart watches cost between $200 and $300. I think if Apple makes a comparable product, it's safe to say it won't be costing more than $600, because at a price beyond that, people will just go for a different brand.
Apple's goal is to impact people's lives. You can't do that if nobody buys your products.
Samsung and Pebble.
Apple is putting so much into marketing this watch that it's going to make people want a smart watch. This means Samsung and Pebble will very quickly duplicate whatever Apple makes, at a lower price. People are willing to pay more for Apple's products, but it's never by these huge margins that Grubar is guessing.
Current smart watches cost between $200 and $300. I think if Apple makes a comparable product, it's safe to say it won't be costing more than $600, because at a price beyond that, people will just go for a different brand.
Apple's goal is to impact people's lives. You can't do that if nobody buys your products.
wow I must be slipping just realized tomorrow is the event. Either that or I don't care too much about the apple watch lol. Either way day off for me!!!
Margins.. Margins..
I just hope that this margins business does not get in the head of the Apple toffs.
Apple has these envious margins because of their products, not the other way around.