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No I didn't.

Unlike science fiction fantasists, I have done design for years and studied architecture when I was younger. Even if I hadn't these things should be very obvious...

An engineer uses keyboards, plotting devices, Wacom tablets. None of these can be effectively virtualized without becoming cumbersome and annoying. Engineers, architects, designers, etc drink a lot of coffee, they eat snacks at their desks. They aren't going to do this with their eyesight blocked with headsets. It's just silly friction. A waste of time, energy and money.

None of these VR things solve a problem for them except when they want to do a walkthrough after a draft is completed or to show a client. VR walkthroughs already existed in the 90s in more low res forms.
I would venture to guess that 99% of the people throwing out VR use case examples don’t work in those industries. Anyone who does knows these ideas are pure fantasy. Furthermore, these are all niche market use cases. Apple doesn’t do niche markets. They want to sell millions and millions of units and monetize the heck out of their hardware through the App Store. None of the use cases being thrown around in this thread accomplishes that.

The use cases that are more mainstream, ie: watching a movie, are also pure fantasy if the price point is too high. Almost no one is going to spend several thousand dollars on a VR headset in order to watch a movie. If the headset is under $500, sure. I’d probably buy one at that price for occasional use. Like someone else said, it would be great on a plane. But not at $3K.

I certainly remain open to Apple surprising me, but I’m very doubtful. I have no doubt they’ll build a very nice device, but it will need a truly revolutionary “killer app” to sell well, especially if the price is several thousand dollars. No developer is going to buy it, much less waste time developing for it, unless there’s a big market. Look at Apple TV. The App Store is a ghost town and Apple can only dream of selling as many VR headsets as they’ve sold Apple TVs.
 
Might be a surprise to learn this, but a big chunk of humanity doesn't use a computer.
We can assume the “big chunk of humanity” is included in the 80% you referenced.

Almost a year ago, Apple reported having 1.8B active devices, so I’m assuming this number is closer to 2B now. Of this total, there are over 1B iPhone users. If their XR product reaches just 1% of these users, that would be over 10M units.
 
I would venture to guess that 99% of the people throwing out VR use case examples don’t work in those industries.

It's always like this with these kind of debates. Online everyone is an expert. In real life people are wiling to sit back and listen.

That brings us to virtual reality applications in which people pretend to be things they are not. Perverts pretending to be children in VR spaces. Quacks pretending to be doctors. Scammers pretending to be lawyers and regulated investors. It's like taking the worst parts of social media and making them 3D. Instead of you stumbling across stuff on a web page, in VR these cretins approach you personally and you have to spend your days swatting them away.

The whole metaverse concept is just a breeding ground for this kind of abusive behavior, stalking and grooming.
 
There were MP3 players out well before iPod and smart phones well before iPhone. The infamous, "Apple may not be first but..." line may apply here.

Before I had anything Apple, I never even considered an MP3 player for portable music. Late to the competitive game iPod at an "insanely too high" price was my first Apple purchase. To load it with music, I needed a Mac, so the "off the track" iPod drove my first Mac purchase too. Now I have tons of Apple stuff, accumulated ever since.

Are goggles the new iPod? We don't know. But we sure seem to have people ripping the concept as hard as people ripped that first iPod. We know what happened there.
You are forgetting that VR goggles have been out for many years now. Apple releasing their own versiln
Or VR would not be some kind revolutionary, never before seen product like it was with something like the first Mac or the iPhone.
With respect I think you are confused. Who suggested VR wasn't around? Certainly not me, read the posts. I merely confirmed that VR is already in use in surgery and other applications, so quite an unusual spin to ask me if "you are forgetting that VR goggles..."? What I'm stating though is UNTIL the hardware exists and in this case I'm referring to Apple hardware, its hardly likely they will be a myriad of applications for it, which is precisely what happened with personal computers, mobile phones, and most technological advances, indeed many discoveries where there may seem to be only minimal application, end up being major advances.
 
We can assume the “big chunk of humanity” is included in the 80% you referenced.

Almost a year ago, Apple reported having 1.8B active devices, so I’m assuming this number is closer to 2B now. Of this total, there are over 1B iPhone users. If their XR product reaches just 1% of these users, that would be over 10M units.

Devices includes Watches and everything else that shows up in your iCloud account.

If the rumours are true that this XR product is going to cost $2000 then I don't see it doing 10M units. Oculus has barely done that at a much lower cost.

None of this means it will be any good anyway. It is hard enough to make a noticeably bug free laptop computer and macOS. Bugs and graphics slow downs in VR are a lot more dramatic because they cause a physiological response - everything from annoyance and drowsiness to falling over and knocking stuff over.
 
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I would venture to guess that 99% of the people throwing out VR use case examples don’t work in those industries. Anyone who does knows these ideas are pure fantasy. Furthermore, these are all niche market use cases. Apple doesn’t do niche markets. They want to sell millions and millions of units and monetize the heck out of their hardware through the App Store. None of the use cases being thrown around in this thread accomplishes that.

The use cases that are more mainstream, ie: watching a movie, are also pure fantasy if the price point is too high. Almost no one is going to spend several thousand dollars on a VR headset in order to watch a movie. If the headset is under $500, sure. I’d probably buy one at that price for occasional use. Like someone else said, it would be great on a plane. But not at $3K.

I certainly remain open to Apple surprising me, but I’m very doubtful. I have no doubt they’ll build a very nice device, but it will need a truly revolutionary “killer app” to sell well, especially if the price is several thousand dollars. No developer is going to buy it, much less waste time developing for it, unless there’s a big market. Look at Apple TV. The App Store is a ghost town and Apple can only dream of selling as many VR headsets as they’ve sold Apple TVs.
That's very similar to what many said about Steve Jobs NeXt operating system....which subsequently transformed Apple from near bankruptcy to a trillion dollar company.

That view was also why Xerox didn't develop the GUI that subsequently proved so important to personal computers.
 
That's very similar to what many said about Steve Jobs NeXt operating system....which subsequently transformed Apple from near bankruptcy to a trillion dollar company.

That view was also why Xerox didn't develop the GUI that subsequently proved so important to personal computers.
I’m very familiar with NeXT. I worked for them at one point and ditched my Mac in 1991 for a NeXTstation. Their student discounts back in the day were amazing! NeXT was the technological envy of the computing world, but their machines were stupid expensive. As a result, they didn’t sell well and no major developers developed for them. Their tech would have disappeared had Jobs not engineered his reverse takeover.

In that sense, you’re right, there are similarities. If the VR headset is stupid expensive, no one is going to buy it and developers aren’t going to develop for it. Same problem NeXT had. It didn’t matter that their tech was a decade ahead of everyone else, at a minimum. The price was too high.
 
If the rumours are true that this XR product is going to cost $2000 then I don't see it doing 10M units. Oculus has barely done that at a much lower cost.
A much lower cost and over several years. As some have noted, sales are falling off in a big way too. 10M units of Apple’s headset in a year is pure fantasy. Anything over $500 and the potential customer base shrinks dramatically. At $2000, who is going to touch it other than rich fanboys? The average customer who finances an iPhone can’t afford that. I know a lot of Apple users. I’m the tech support guy for my friends and family. Many of them struggle to afford a new laptop every five years. The idea that a significant number of people have several grand to throw away on an accessory device is laughable.
 
Devices includes Watches and everything else that shows up in your iCloud account.

If the rumours are true that this XR product is going to cost $2000 then I don't see it doing 10M units. Oculus has barely done that at a much lower cost.

None of this means it will be any good anyway. It is hard enough to make a noticeably bug free laptop computer and macOS. Bugs and graphics slow downs in VR are a lot more dramatic because they cause a physiological response - everything from annoyance and drowsiness to falling over and knocking stuff over.
Yes, the total they state always includes every device they sell — that I why I included the 1B+ active iPhone user base — this is their audience for the XR product. Again, just 1% of this number is over 10M units. You could look at Mac users, but I think most Mac users are already iPhone users. As such, I believe this is a conservative projection.

You’re focused on the price, but you should be looking at ratios — some will buy and some won’t buy. They already know how many iPhone users bought an iPad, a Mac, an Watch, etc. This how projections are made, because price can seem high, low, or just right for different individuals — you can’t base decisions on this.
 
Yes, the total they state always includes every device they sell — that I why I included the 1B+ active iPhone user base — this is their audience for the XR product. Again, just 1% of this number is over 10M units. You could look at Mac users, but I think most Mac users are already iPhone users. As such, I believe this is a conservative projection.

You’re focused on the price, but you should be looking at ratios — some will buy and some won’t buy. They already know how many iPhone users bought an iPad, a Mac, an Watch, etc. This how projections are made, because price can seem high, low, or just right for different individuals — you can’t base decisions on this.
This is the same argument people made for Apple Watch. We heard plenty of ridiculous sales forecasts from pundits and fans alike, none of which turned out to be true. The headset will likely cost several times the watch. Pretending like price doesn’t matter is crazy. Apple will be luckily if .1% of iPhone customers buy a $2K+ accessory.
 
Interesting to see the adverse comments on VR and comments about limited application.

For the record that was exactly the comments given when the first Mac computers were made. The same comments applied to iPhones and apply to many new products, as its logical that software and uses can't really progress without the catalyst of the device in question in the first place
You are forgetting that VR goggles have been out for many years now. Apple releasing their own versiln
Or VR would not be some kind revolutionary, never before seen product like it was with something like the first Mac or the iPhone.
Let’s also not forget that the Mac was a commercial failure for many years. The Apple II line subsidized it for many years. Apple nearly went bankrupt when the Mac was its primary product line after the Apple II. Will today’s Apple subsidize a money losing product for years in hopes that it gains traction? I doubt it.
Exactly. It was Steve Job’s Apple that was willing to risk bankruptcy for the sake of his vision. Vision, Tim Cook has not.
 
No I didn't.

Unlike science fiction fantasists, I have done design for years and studied architecture when I was younger. Even if I hadn't these things should be very obvious...

An engineer uses keyboards, plotting devices, Wacom tablets. None of these can be effectively virtualized without becoming cumbersome and annoying. Engineers, architects, designers, etc drink a lot of coffee, they eat snacks at their desks. They aren't going to do this with their eyesight blocked with headsets. It's just silly friction. A waste of time, energy and money.

None of these VR things solve a problem for them except when they want to do a walkthrough after a draft is completed or to show a client. VR walkthroughs already existed in the 90s in more low res forms.
Probably because we are talking AR not VR….. which has full passthrough.

btw I studied architecture and have designed for years and am not a sci fi fantasist. Good luck to you though, you seem stuck 20 - 30 years ago with words such as plotting devices, and using Wacom tablets (did in 1996 with AutoCAD, but those days are long gone).
 
You are forgetting that VR goggles have been out for many years now. Apple releasing their own versiln
Or VR would not be some kind revolutionary, never before seen product like it was with something like the first Mac or the iPhone.

Exactly. It was Steve Job’s Apple that was willing to risk bankruptcy for the sake of his vision. Vision, Tim Cook has not.
That’s not quite accurate. The Apple II line subsidized the Mac for years after jobs left. Jobs would have likely bankrupted Apple if Scully hadn’t fired him. Jobs wanted to go all-in on the Mac when it was still losing money. His years at NeXT changed him in a lot of ways. Apple was teetering on bankruptcy when Jobs returned. Jobs pulled them back from the brink and laid the foundation for today’s Apple.

I also don’t think it’s fair to say Cook had no vision. He’s grown Apple into the behemoth it is today. That takes vision. I don’t see any other tech company producing visionary products. Under Cook we’ve seen Apple finally deliver a robust and stable online platform. The tight integration of devices has largely happened on his watch. Apple has moved aggressively into wearables during his tenure. And we have him to thanks for the full transition to Apple Silicone. Sure, he’s not the showman Jobs was. No one is. But that doesn’t mean he has no vision.
 
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Niche markets that will require custom apps. Microsoft is years ahead of Apple with HoloLens in those kinds of markets. Apple is a consumer electronics company that aims to sell millions of whatever product it releases with apps that can be monetized on the App Store. Niche markets won’t cut it. I agree that VR and AR have a lot of niche market use cases. But what’s the use case for millions of consumers to drop several grand on a VR headset. I don’t see that happening, ever.
We disagree. Even if this initial product that no one has seen flops, and we do not think it will flop, it will help lead the way into important future successful product(s). E.g. like Newton led to iPhone and iPad.
 
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The other problem with gaming is the controller. I have no doubt that Apple will come up with some unique way of interacting with the device, but I'm not convinced it will be adequate for serious gaming. For a lot of people, not being able to see the controller will be a problem.
The joystick is a proven controller and yet PC games couldn't assume everyone to have one. And so even space flight simulators are often controlled by keyboard and mice. It's the least common denominator who always wins out. And that's an iPhone or a PC without VR headset.
Very true. And today's controllers for consoles are pretty much a standard layout that everyone knows. I think it will be very hard to make a controller for VR that is as functional as the game-pad style most people use today.
Most newer VR controllers follow the layout of the Oculus Touch controllers, which are basically a standard gamepad split in half, but without the dpad and with 2 face buttons on each side instead of all 4 on the right side. A lot of functionality that may have been assigned to a dpad, like turning on a flashlight, can be done in other ways in VR, such as tapping the side of your head to turn on a headlamp.
Also, the spatial tracking of the controllers means you can do things that are not intuitive or even possible on a standard controller. Beat Saber uses no buttons, but the gameplay couldn't be replicated on a standard gamepad. Anyone can play it with zero previous gaming experience.

My biggest concern with Apple's VR device is that they won't follow the standard that Oculus set for input, so it will be harder to port many existing games and apps to Apple's device. Not being able to see the controller isn't an issue, and can be one area where VR is easier and more intuitive, because you can show the controller in VR, and even add labels to the buttons that explain what the buttons do.

0.1% of AAA games are available on M-series Macs, and 0.1% of them (so 0.1% of 0.1%) will have an AR/VR version... 😂
Most of the best (in my opinion) VR games are not ports of existing games. Also, this will likely be a standalone device, so I think the more apt comparison is iOS vs Android gaming than it is Mac vs Windows.

If we all bought new technology just because it looks cool or is a cool idea, we'd all have 3D TVs (that was an even bigger flop), HD-DVD, the Ouya, Stadia, the Newton, and Palm Pilots would have beaten the iPhone to the punch.
If we are discussing a class of devices and not just a single device, most of those comparisons aren't really relevant, or actually go against your point. High definition video discs are popular (but not as popular as they could be because of the move to streaming video). The Newton and Palm Pilot are precursors to smartphones.

I am not the only one who won't buy it, which means Apple is wasting engineering talent that could be used elsewhere, like nuking Stage Manager
I suspect that Stage Manager may have a connection to the development of the VR/AR operating system. The UI for it may make more sense for VR where you don't have to worry about the stacks of app windows taking up valuable desktop space.
Or maybe the Apple Car, which is also vaporware at this point.

1.6 Million won't buy this, much less anywhere near half a billion
And how many will buy the Apple car?
What can it do that isn't already being done on a smartphone, tablet, or TV?
What can be done on a tablet that couldn't be done on a desktop or laptop computer?
I've played many games in VR that would be completely different if you attempted to make them as a traditional video game played on a TV.
With VR, there is a major discrepancy between the eyes and the inner ear. You CANNOT overcome this with a headset. The headset is the cause. The only way to overcome this is with a fully immersive VR environment that will for now be technologically impossible, and forever impractical for any consumer.
No, the software is the cause. There are plenty of games and other apps that don't require movement that would cause any discrepancy between the visuals and your inner ear. In fact, some games are less nauseating in VR than they would be on a flat screen.
Of course. But none of those devices is flying off the shelves and there’s never been a breakout VR game despite VR being a thing, as you say, for many years. I think the controller is one aspect of why VR hasn’t taken off and will likely never replace console gaming.
What is your definition of a breakout game? Beat Saber is a hugely popular game for VR. Unless you mean a VR game that's sold more copies than there are VR headsets, which would be silly. As I said above, VR controllers can do pretty much anything a standard controller can, but also add a whole new level of control not possible with gamepads.
Interesting. The idea doesn’t appeal to me at all but I’ve never tried a VR workout app, so what do I know! Maybe it’s more appealing than I realize.
I can be so engrossed in a VR game that I don't realize how physically taxing it is until I stop playing. (but there are also many options for games that aren't physically taxing, if that's your preference)
You are forgetting that VR goggles have been out for many years now. Apple releasing their own versiln
Or VR would not be some kind revolutionary, never before seen product like it was with something like the first Mac or the iPhone.
I want to see a general purpose VR device that has an OS that is comparable to MacOS and iOS/iPadOS. Current VR interfaces are more suited for a gaming console-like experience.
No. Oculus sales are in free fall since 2 years ago
Source, please.
Movies are a social experience. We sit in a dark theater together with a bunch of strangers and have a shared emotional experience. It’s part of what makes movie watching special.
Every movie I've watched in VR has been a social experience. I've watched movies with people in different states and countries. In the non-virtual world, I mostly watch movies alone, and I'd probably do some of that in VR if it were more comfortable.
I would venture to guess that 99% of the people throwing out VR use case examples don’t work in those industries. Anyone who does knows these ideas are pure fantasy. Furthermore, these are all niche market use cases.
I’m rather bullish on the potential of VR, and I find many of the examples people give for the usefulness of VR rather cringey. I think it will be used for gaming, fitness, video/movie watching, and a lot of the tasks people already use desktop computers for.
 
We disagree. Even if this initial product that no one has seen flops, and we do not think it will flop, it will help lead the way into important future successful product(s). E.g. like Newton led to iPhone and iPad.
But do we really disagree? What’s the use case for millions and millions of consumers buying an Apple VR headset every year at an absurd price point? I agree that VR has many speciality applications and I won’t argue that one day, when it’s cheap enough, it will no doubt have its place. I don’t think it will become the default way of interacting with technology by any means, though.

It’s hard for me to imagine today’s Apple subsidizing a VR product for years, which is likely what they will have to do if this device costs several thousand dollars, as many suspect. Very very few people will buy it at that price point, especially these days. Small sales = limited developer interest. Limited developer interest = no apps. I fail to see any path for Apple to sell enough expensive headsets to make it a viable product category.

In my mind, a VR headset is, at best, an accessory. The idea that we’ll all work in VR and it will magically make us more productive is just silly. If we’re talking consumer uses, like watching a movie or playing a game, the headset can’t be expensive. Those aren’t ”killer apps” for VR, no matter how amazing the display or experience. In my mind this thing lives or dies based on the price point.
 
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I can't imagine strapping some VR headset to my face for several hours to watch a movie. That doesn't sound enjoyable at all. I don't see this as a selling point for most people.


Lol!! So true!! People would rather escape than deal with reality, much less try to fix things. We see this happening every day with people glued to their phones obsessing over nonsense while the world crumbles.


It's not going to sell. Of course the hardcore fans will buy it, but I don't think the general public has any appetite for this stuff. Even gaming. I have several friends who bought their kids Oculus. Each of these kids was amazed and obsessed with it for all of two, maybe three, days. And now none of them uses it. The novelty wears off quickly.
I believe VR is the future for some applications. I think we may have aways to go. I have tried to watch movies in VR, the idea seemed cool, the problem was the resolution, and the lack of 3D support. I agree the novelty wears off quick, for me again it was resolution mostly. I believe your going to always have people that's against VR, but I think as time goes on and the products get better, more people will adopt it and maybe by 2030 it will be mainstream. If Apple brings out a high resolution VR headset in 2023 I'm blowing money on it, only unless it's something really off putting about it. I think the problem with Facebook/Meta is they tried to go mainstream with price to soon. The unit is cheap, and the experience is bad, they should have focused on the high end market, and keep pushing the technology/resolution.
 
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“They” want us “living” in a virtual world to hide us from the reality of the problems “they” have created.

Remember the Matrix?
Yes. It all started with television...with ads of course. Computers, phones, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and now "They" want to stick it on your face. Then? Be strong and resilient! Eat an Apple and Happy 2023!
 
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Good luck to you though, you seem stuck 20 - 30 years ago with words such as plotting devices, and using Wacom tablets (did in 1996 with AutoCAD, but those days are long gone).

Designers and engineers don't use Wacoms these days? No sketch ups? No mock ups? No drawings? 😂
Let me guess, no physical keyboards and number pads should be used either right? We should be waving at virtual keyboards floating in virtual cyber space 🤣

This is what these people believe. 😂 They go on forums and post word salad and hope someone out there will believe in the age of VR or AR that designers and engineers will be waving their hands in the air.

Facts is, Wacom ships every tablet with different nibs and among those are nibs for architects, CGI artists and designers who need to do precise plotting and modelling. You cannot use a virtual stylus in VR or AR as effectively or precisely as a real tablet allows, for similar reasons virtual keyboards are difficult to use. Virtual modelling and virtual painting have existed for years so it isn't hard to check the difficulties people have trying to use them for precision engineering, design and art.

If someone tells you Wacoms aren't used any longer for these tasks, they have no clue. They are a fake expert. Anyone can simply do an image search or article search to debunk them.

Happy New Year science fiction and Tom Cruise fans.
 
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Genuinely excited about this. And I never say anything nice on this forum. 🤪
 
I know this post was largely about product update/releases, but are there any rumors on some major updates to some of their services? Some apps I feel really need some love would be Apple Books, music, and podcasts.
 
In my mind, a VR headset is, at best, an accessory. The idea that we’ll all work in VR and it will magically make us more productive is just silly. If we’re talking consumer uses, like watching a movie or playing a game, the headset can’t be expensive. Those aren’t ”killer apps” for VR, no matter how amazing the display or experience. In my mind this thing lives or dies based on the price point.

Consumers prefer to watch movies with friends and family. Are they each going to wear goggles or just watch the TV/cinema screen together without the discomfort and expense? The latter obviously.

VRs most fanatic fans sound like very lonely people and immersing themselves deeper into VR is just making them more isolated and more resistant to facts. They don't understand the way people really work with devices or the way people socialise at work or at home. They become anti-reality and start insisting that everyone believes what they believe, everyone should do what they do, everyone should see the future they do.

It's like a cult. It's really the merdaverse and the fanatics need to free themselves from their extreme ideas about it.

This is a very sad image and the head honcho is smiling about it, probably just like how he was smiling when Facebook damaged so many lives with their terrible platform for misinformation and data abuse.

Screen%20Shot%202016-02-21%20at%2011.54.05%20PM.png
 
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I will definitely be upgrading to the iPhone 15 Pro, the new Homepod and the new Airpods Max. I'm on the fence about the new MBPs since I wasn't too impressed with the benchmarks comparison on the M1 and M2. If anything I might upgrade to the M1 Max before the release of the M2, since I think the M1 Pro is lacking in my opinion. But overall, seems like an exciting year for Apple.
 
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