I'm still not convinced the Mini won't stay on M4 and go right to M6.
This, with all due respect, doesn’t have the supply-chain logic that Tim Cook’s Apple follows.
Think about it: the M6 is a special step, means the adoption of a novel process node that hasn’t been shipped yet, and it’s debuting on a whole new machine: the OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro. A machine that will be substantially more expensive.
We know, based on most rumors, that this new 2nm process is substantially more expensive to manufacture, with lower yields compared to the already fully mature N3E (M4) and N3P (M5) node. There were also many rumors pointing to a possible price increase of the devices to offset the price increase of the 2nm chips…
This indicates me that the first 2nm products will go to both high volume products and big margin products (i.e: expensive products).
During 2026, this products will probably be the new, super expensive OLED touchscreen MacBook Pro (M6) and the upcoming iPhone Fold and 18 Pro (A20), leaving all the other products on the 3nm family of SoCs to maximize the benefits for at least one year.
The Mac mini is the opposite to what I described. It is a low volume, low cost product, the entry level Mac up until the launch of the MacBook Neo.
I am quite confident that, once the other M5 Macs demand has been met (mainly the MacBook Air) and the M5 supply chain is ready, we’ll see the M5 and M5 Pro Mac mini, as well as the M5 Max (and maybe the ultra as well?) Mac Studio. And not only that. I feel like both the Mac mini and the Mac Studio will remain on the M5 family for a long, long time, due to how expensive and low yield the 2nm process is.
Maybe after the M5 release for the desktop Macs, we won’t see another Mac mini or Studio until the M7 generation. Just remember what happened when the new 3nm chips -also with extremely low yield- were released during the M3 gen: no mini and no Studio. Well, the M3 Ultra is an exception I guess.
My gut feeling based on the supply chain situation, is that the M5, as a chip built on a mature and cheap process node, will be a long stop for many devices. Hopefully the iPhone 18 and 18e will receive an A20 in march 2027, even if binned.