To be fair, until recent years, if you suggested people would be getting rid of a perfectly working mobile phone to upgrade to a fractionally better one, every year, people woul dof looked at you as if you were some kind of nutter.
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What Will The Apple Watch Refresh Cycle Be? [MERGED]
- Thread starter guzhogi
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To be fair, until recent years, if you suggested people would be getting rid of a perfectly working mobile phone to upgrade to a fractionally better one, every year, people woul dof looked at you as if you were some kind of nutter.
I disagree...
See my previous comment about currently ALL of their products being refreshed at holidays. People do need to occasionally budget & space out their purchases. Also, it takes the spotlight away if you have myraid products dropping at once. I think Feb or March it will stay!
What would be refreshed? Is the tech inside Watch really going to change that much between spring and summer or fall? Unless you think they're going to ship the first watch with outdated internals?
If Apple announces new watches 3-6 months after the first ones ship I can see a lot of people being pissed off. Especially if there is no way for them to upgrade outside of buying a brand new watch.
While I don't disagree that the holidays are a little over loaded, the aWatch is more of a gift item than most Apple products like the iPhone. It would make more sense to move the iPhone back to a spring time launch since it is not as big of a gift type item. Also keep in mind that despite the fact that the holidays are heavy on Apple product launches it IS the time of year that people spend BY FAR the most money on electronic gadgets. Early spring is traditionally a slower time for electronics sales.
Also keep in mind that most evidence indicates Apple was shooting for fall 2014 for the aWatch but was unable to meet this time frame. That would have put the aWatch on the fall release schedule.
I hope so. This cramming everything into September and October and then going quiet for 6-9 months makes no sense. Like you say some people do need to space out their purchases. I actually wish Apple would move iPads back to spring. So maybe have iPads and Watch in the spring and iPhones and Macs in the fall.
People will be ticked off regardless. I think they will make it waterproof so you can surf/swim/shower with it and also introduce a new graphene based 'battery'.
To butcher the saying:
From your mouth to Tim's ears!
Hope that's not blasphemous. ;0)
I agree, and I really don't understand Apple's mentality here.
At the moment it seems like Apple releases everything in one go, and then dies for a whole year, making many feel they've run out of ideas, and all the competition are free to bring out wave after wave of brand new cutting edge products to show off, and sell to consumers, whilst Apple has nothing to offer.
If they spread products over the year, Apple would look like it's much more active, on the ball, and every 1/4 having new things to offer consumers.
It does seem an odd thing to do.
A new gen I watch every year? Is this likely to happen? It doesn't seem like it would be one of those items that will get such high sales after each refresh. A $500+ watch, for those who go with the higher end versions, is not something I suspect people will easily throw on the wayside to get an updated one. If I get one I'd like it to last me years until it plops dead (shoutout to my 1st gen ipad!)
I mean it is just a watch that relies on your phone for most of the functionality. Aside from battery life and the "thinner" feature, what much can they do to warrant a refresh every year? I'd like to see maybe a 2, 2.5 yr refresh cycle. Enough time to make meaningful changes and not slight improvements of the paper specs updates. I'll try to gauge this when/if Apple releases the 4th gen Apple TV. For the most part, that line has a 2 year refresh cycle with pretty significant updates in each revision. I hope the same for the watch.
I mean it is just a watch that relies on your phone for most of the functionality. Aside from battery life and the "thinner" feature, what much can they do to warrant a refresh every year? I'd like to see maybe a 2, 2.5 yr refresh cycle. Enough time to make meaningful changes and not slight improvements of the paper specs updates. I'll try to gauge this when/if Apple releases the 4th gen Apple TV. For the most part, that line has a 2 year refresh cycle with pretty significant updates in each revision. I hope the same for the watch.
In just a few months after releasing the first Watch? No. Zero chance of that happening.
9 months is hardly just a few months. Also see the iPad 4th generation update.. to say zero chance of it happening.
9 months is exactly what I would call a few months. Also, the iPad 3/4 was not a first to second gen refresh and did not include a radical battery technology shift as well as waterproofing.
There's no way of really telling how Apple will deal with the 
WATCH in terms of annual updates. It could be the sort of products which only sees an update once every 2 years, if it's not as popular as iOS devices. But I can see the watch being very, very popular and will likely become one of Apple's flagship devices.
I'm still struggling to come to terms with the fact theWATCH even exists. I think it still feels very conceptual because they're not out in the wild yet. I can't wait to get one on my wrist, it's a brand new product that I find myself very excited about!
WATCH in terms of annual updates. It could be the sort of products which only sees an update once every 2 years, if it's not as popular as iOS devices. But I can see the watch being very, very popular and will likely become one of Apple's flagship devices. I'm still struggling to come to terms with the fact the
WATCH even exists. I think it still feels very conceptual because they're not out in the wild yet. I can't wait to get one on my wrist, it's a brand new product that I find myself very excited about!They simply MUST update the Apple Watch yearly to stay relevant against the Android competition which will undoubtedly be releasing dozens upon dozens in that time frame.
However, this does NOT mean you must update yours each year. Say average upgrade is 3 years, one third of the people upgrade in year one, one third in year two, and one third in year three. Boom. There's your cycle.
It doesn't seem much of a competition, for the most part it just depends on what phone a user has, right? I mean aren't there already several dozen of smart watches out there? Whatever apple business strategy is so be it, but if I end up getting a smart watch, I do not believe there will be an upgrades justifying new versions every year to convince people. No major cpu or gpu will be necessary, and with most of capability stemming from the phone I don't know what increments they will make. Maybe if they release each generation with an additional hour of battery life, that is the only improvement I can see it making. But who knows, if apple is Apple, they may do something good. All I can say is that if this line is to be similar to the iPad line, then they must have some innovative resources at their disposal before it just falls to the wayside.
As I said, I do not believe the goal will be to upgrade so astoundingly each year that the users from the previous year feel pressured to buy... however, if people are only buying every 3-5 years, they'll be happy to see that the new one they get is iteratively better by the number of years they waited!
Look at the one year iPhone refresh... at six months sales dip dramatically because people wait for the next instead. If Apple made the grevious misstep of a 3 year refresh cycle (don't worry... I assure you; they will not), you'd have that steep drop off for a minimum of 18 months!!! Also, Android would have dropped at least 100 watches in that interim. Obviously, there would be a FEW must have features during that time.
I bet the upgrades will be internal only and might come yearly. They have already taken the concept of a regular watch so far, luxury item with fancy bands and watchfaces, why not make it last for decades? The design is timeless and will be regarded as iconic in a few years time.
Unlike phones and tablets the watch does not "need" to get thinner and lighter. A lot of people actually prefer the watch to be heavy, and the sport edition is probably light enough for those who need that. The thickness I think is absolutely acceptable, when looking at pictures where people actually wear the device it look a lot sleeker than the press photos of the watch only.
Add to that the completly modular design of the internals. Both the battery and the S1-chip look like they can be replaced. I would be very suprised if Apple did not go this way.
Unlike phones and tablets the watch does not "need" to get thinner and lighter. A lot of people actually prefer the watch to be heavy, and the sport edition is probably light enough for those who need that. The thickness I think is absolutely acceptable, when looking at pictures where people actually wear the device it look a lot sleeker than the press photos of the watch only.
Add to that the completly modular design of the internals. Both the battery and the S1-chip look like they can be replaced. I would be very suprised if Apple did not go this way.
I suspect Apple will adopt an upgrade cycle similar to the iPhone's. The fact Apple is releasing the watch could be significant in this.
Apple tends to upgrade the design of the iPhone every other year, e.g 2010, 2012, 2014. Therefore, it would surely make no sense to have a whole new design of Watch in the same year as the new iPhone design. Too much work, yield issues, and of course, people might not want to buy two entirely new products in the same year. Therefore the release of the watch in 2015 or the 'S' year for the iPhone means those that don't buy a new phone that year (on a typical two year contract) can get a new design watch instead.
Of course it's probably convenient timing. But its something to note.
Apple tends to upgrade the design of the iPhone every other year, e.g 2010, 2012, 2014. Therefore, it would surely make no sense to have a whole new design of Watch in the same year as the new iPhone design. Too much work, yield issues, and of course, people might not want to buy two entirely new products in the same year. Therefore the release of the watch in 2015 or the 'S' year for the iPhone means those that don't buy a new phone that year (on a typical two year contract) can get a new design watch instead.
Of course it's probably convenient timing. But its something to note.
Apple cannot wait years between updates. They are going to release a device with 24 hours battery life at best. In a year from now the competition will have devices that get in the 3-5 range of battery life if not more. The latest android wear watch (sony smartwatch 3) already has multiple day battery life and is waterproof. That is a big deal to people and will warrant upgrades.
agreed.
With Apple saying and advertising the Apple Watch as a fashion item mixed with technology ... I wounder if yearly updates will have major Design Changes ... That way even more combinations, look, feel and personalisation will make its way to the Apple Watch Brand.
I dont think that it will be just getting the Watch Thin ... The Watch industry has got so many watches that are as thick or even more thicker than the Apple Watch ... Contrary to the iPhone and iPad ... I dont see Apple taking the Thin route with the Watch ... but insted will give it an all new look year after year ... but keeping the Screen Rectangle.
Battery improvements are a given with each release I think ... But performance wize .. I think Apple has made it very clear that Horse Power will come from the iPhone ... "You want more performance ... get a new iPhone"
I also see new health sensors to be added year after year, Apple with the All star med team ( http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-iwatch-team-2014-2 ) working on the Apple Watch ... Cant just let the Watch with only a Heart Rate monitor ... Too many people are onboard with sensor design talent ... some of them joined late last year .. and I guess their expertise could not be incorporated into the Apple Watch becose it was too far and late in the design cycle ... But next version could see alot of these talent get to shine with the Watch .... next version should be incredible !!
With the amount of talent working on this at Apple ... this watch has a bright future over the coming years
I dont think that it will be just getting the Watch Thin ... The Watch industry has got so many watches that are as thick or even more thicker than the Apple Watch ... Contrary to the iPhone and iPad ... I dont see Apple taking the Thin route with the Watch ... but insted will give it an all new look year after year ... but keeping the Screen Rectangle.
Battery improvements are a given with each release I think ... But performance wize .. I think Apple has made it very clear that Horse Power will come from the iPhone ... "You want more performance ... get a new iPhone"
I also see new health sensors to be added year after year, Apple with the All star med team ( http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-iwatch-team-2014-2 ) working on the Apple Watch ... Cant just let the Watch with only a Heart Rate monitor ... Too many people are onboard with sensor design talent ... some of them joined late last year .. and I guess their expertise could not be incorporated into the Apple Watch becose it was too far and late in the design cycle ... But next version could see alot of these talent get to shine with the Watch .... next version should be incredible !!
With the amount of talent working on this at Apple ... this watch has a bright future over the coming years
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Any guesses?
- 1 year like iPhone?
- 3 years+ like Apple TV?
Any speculation and why? Need to make up my mind about getting the cheap disposable sports (if 1 year like iPhone) or SS if next generation is not expected for 3 years.
Thanks
EDIT: in the case of Apple TV, gap between v1 and v2 is close to 4 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV
- 1 year like iPhone?
- 3 years+ like Apple TV?
Any speculation and why? Need to make up my mind about getting the cheap disposable sports (if 1 year like iPhone) or SS if next generation is not expected for 3 years.
Thanks
EDIT: in the case of Apple TV, gap between v1 and v2 is close to 4 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV