Of course I could be wrong, but I don't think the sensor technology will be fast evolving like we want it to. We will see though
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What Will The Apple Watch Refresh Cycle Be? [MERGED]
- Thread starter guzhogi
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Of course I could be wrong, but I don't think the sensor technology will be fast evolving like we want it to. We will see though
My guess is a change every 2 years with the bands staying the same for at least 5 years. It will need to be significant to get me to upgrade.
I am assuming the Watch rollout to be slow. It remains to be seen if Apple will roll it out faster than I'm expecting. Again, it's not 2007 anymore. Apple doesn't need to come out with a cheaper follow up to the Apple Watch to reach mass market, and there aren't glaring omissions in tech (3G) that require them to move at an accelerated pace. It made more sense for Apple to release a new model rather than continue rolling out the old one, and many countries simply didn't get the original iPhone. That won't happen with the Watch.
Again, there are other reasons I don't believe that Apple will have a yearly refresh, and the roll out (which is still something we're waiting to see) is just one.
I find your guesses comforting.
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Those choices will matter to people - for example, someone who wears a yellow gold wedding band may prefer a gold watch.
I'll bet anything it is yearly. Why wouldn't it be? Samsung has had loads of gear models already. I'll bet in three years time the Apple watch will be behind the competition.
Of course I'm one of the many hoping for longer refreshes, but I doubt it. The Apple watches has glaring deficiencies already in my view (no gps and poor water reistance). At least if they keep the same form factor so the straps are replaceable then that would be something.
To compare the watch to the apple tv isn't really relevent. One you wear everday and is a fashion statement, the other streams netflix and lives under the tv. I couldn't care less if the apple tv is updated, since it will still stream netflix and live under the tv (until such time I get a smart tv and then it gets put in a drawer for eternity).
Of course I'm one of the many hoping for longer refreshes, but I doubt it. The Apple watches has glaring deficiencies already in my view (no gps and poor water reistance). At least if they keep the same form factor so the straps are replaceable then that would be something.
To compare the watch to the apple tv isn't really relevent. One you wear everday and is a fashion statement, the other streams netflix and lives under the tv. I couldn't care less if the apple tv is updated, since it will still stream netflix and live under the tv (until such time I get a smart tv and then it gets put in a drawer for eternity).
Keeping in mind that the battery has a limited lifetime, I assume that your two years are a good assumption.
If communication abilities somehow enable more sensors that re useful for a watch, it might be earlier than that.
I read it someplace legit, but cannot recall where.
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I find your guesses comforting.
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Those choices will matter to people - for example, someone who wears a yellow gold wedding band may prefer a gold watch.
I was thinking the same re: wanting to match watch to wedding band or rings worn regularly. Not everyone can drop 10K or more on a watch and we know Apple has done a good job with the gold aluminum on the iPhone, so this is an educated guess, them adding to their aluminum case offerings.
If they gold-plated their SS this early in the game, it would knock the Edition out of the running, so I don't think that'll happen soon. But, yellow or rose gold aluminum? They look nothing like the Edition, so they are good future possibilities, I think. Especially if Apple is eyeing a rose gold iPhone in the future.
The money for these won't be in rapid upgrade cycles. It'll be in getting people to buy the Watch first, then to buy the apps and accessories. That's the real money in this venture.
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Adding new styles and making a major change to the innards are two different things. And Samsung may have a ton of models, but are they really any good? I don't know anyone (including my Droid-loving friends) who has been really bowled over by a Samsung Gear.
I do not think that Apple views Gear or Pebble or Moto 360 or any of those as major competition. For them, this is about getting people to buy a smart watch instead of a mechanical watch or a sports band.
So, in my mind, they'll want to offer styles people like, and they won't throw anything new and dramatically different into this watch (possibly rendering all the ones they just sold obsolete) until they know they can do it well.
That points at a refresh cycle of about 2 years between models, with new case offerings and bands showing up on off years, but no real advances in the tech.
Which should work very well. The idea is that the Apple Watch pairs with the iPhone. Not that it replaces it or that you can use one with whatever other phone you have.
Personally, and there is no evidence to back this, I would prefer the opposite of what they've done with the iPhone and on a shorter scale:
New designs/materials/bands twice a year and then once a year rolling out major hardware upgrades.
It'd fit nice with the fashion world in that respect and would also ensure relatively up to date components. The media would eat it up but it seems unlikely as it has taken nearly six months from the moment they announced it to ship the first model.
New designs/materials/bands twice a year and then once a year rolling out major hardware upgrades.
It'd fit nice with the fashion world in that respect and would also ensure relatively up to date components. The media would eat it up but it seems unlikely as it has taken nearly six months from the moment they announced it to ship the first model.
Of all the Apple products, the Apple Watch seems to be trend tracking the iPad more so than iPhone or Apple TV etc...
Apple needs a new Spring product, which used to be the iPad until the 4th generation. A new product every few months keeps people talking about Apple and keeps the marketing engine in full force. Apple Watch could fill this space well. They don't need anything to drive iPhone sales in the fall and winter; but what would drive iPhone sales in the Spring and Summer?
They spent way too much time on this product for it be an "extra" eclipsed by iPhone, iPad, or Mac releases. Jony Ive has basically said this much.
Another thing to consider; the Apple Watch case is a very deliberate design, much more than a rectangle whose components fit inside. I find it hard to imagine how Apple could add sensors or change chip designs without altering the case, at least slightly.
It's a given at this point that 1.) More health sensors will be added with the FDA stating that will take a hands-off approach to the AW. 2.) Greater autonomy (i.e. better battery life, GPS, less "iPhone required". It's also possible that sapphire could eventually be added to more models (including Sport) if production efficiencies are improved.
The wearable market is moving too fast for anything greater than 1 year refreshes.
Apple needs a new Spring product, which used to be the iPad until the 4th generation. A new product every few months keeps people talking about Apple and keeps the marketing engine in full force. Apple Watch could fill this space well. They don't need anything to drive iPhone sales in the fall and winter; but what would drive iPhone sales in the Spring and Summer?
They spent way too much time on this product for it be an "extra" eclipsed by iPhone, iPad, or Mac releases. Jony Ive has basically said this much.
Another thing to consider; the Apple Watch case is a very deliberate design, much more than a rectangle whose components fit inside. I find it hard to imagine how Apple could add sensors or change chip designs without altering the case, at least slightly.
It's a given at this point that 1.) More health sensors will be added with the FDA stating that will take a hands-off approach to the AW. 2.) Greater autonomy (i.e. better battery life, GPS, less "iPhone required". It's also possible that sapphire could eventually be added to more models (including Sport) if production efficiencies are improved.
The wearable market is moving too fast for anything greater than 1 year refreshes.
Apple still had a lot of sensors planned for the initial Watch, but had to ditch them because they were unreliable. So I think they have plenty of sensors to put in, they just need a little more tweaking; so it could be a new sensor every year or so.
I think it also depends on what competitors (Samsung/LG/Motorola) are doing, and what the Google Wear ecosystem comes up with. But I think that a ~1-1.5 year cycle seems legit.
I see no evidence that anyone is making bank off wearables to the degree that major hardware revamps need to be done yearly. These aren't Nike Fuel bands. They're watches that cost at least 350 dollars for the entry-level model.
Maybe if all Apple put out was the Sport and 350 or so was all they expected a person to spend would I think they'd be throwing out a new one every year and thinking people would upgrade. But, realistically, they have to know that not everyone is going to spend more than 500 dollars a year to buy a new version of the watch they bought last year.
As it is right now, for a 38mm watch I'm looking at 700 or more dollars.
This isn't the same as the iPhone where people are getting subsidies and "free" financing to buy a new one every year, with an established trade-in and used phone market.
This is very new territory.
I stand by my 2 years for major upgrade comment earlier. I cannot see a major upgrade until 2 years and even then, I doubt the case design will change much. Just the innards.
There are too many places to go with this from a software, new case materials, new bands sort of an angle to assume they won't do that before they try to reinvent this particular wheel.
Remember, they want this to be a fashion wearable that you can use for activity tracking. They want you to want to wear this for awhile. They don't see this as just a tech gadget.
There's still so much they can do with just the design and specs they're putting out right now.
People are going on and on here on MR about battery life (if it holds out for a day for the majority of people, why does it need to be better right away?) and thinness (finer mechanical watches are just as thick), weight (again, most good mechanical watches are heavier).
This is a wearable, not a phone. And it pushes off most of the processing tasks TO the phone.
I just cannot see the value, given all the R&D that went into this watch, of trying to build a better one in a year's time.
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
People like you confuse me... "I don't want to see a yearly cycle, because I don't want to buy it every year"?? ummm... then don't buy it every year. No one is forcing you to upgrade. If you are fine holding on to your watch for 2-3 years, then why would the existance of a newer model affect the performace of your model?
This would be a terrible business strategy. Can you imagine if the Mac refresh cycle was every 3-6 years, because that's how often most people buy a new computer? It hurts my head to think about. Apple wants to keep people buying all year every year. Look at the iPhone sales. They typically* drop every quarter after launch. The same will undoubtedly be true for the Watch. Plus do you think the competition will wait 2-3 years? Heck samsung alone will probably release 2 dozen watches in the next 2-3 years. I'm not saying that's the best strategy, but imagine how terrible that would make Apple look.
Miniature/wearable computing, such as the
Watch, is an area that can make huge strides EACH year for the next few years. Why would Apple hold off? Apple is going ALL IN on the Watch. This isn't just a "hobby" like the TV. If the refresh cycle is more than a year (+- 2 months), I'll eat my hat.
I think they need a spring product and I think that they'll launch something new in the spring each year, but it won't be a redesign. It'll be redesign every 2 years and new case materials/accessories/bands/new software types of upgrades on the off years when they aren't doing a redesign.
Even the iPhone, with its yearly upgrades really doesn't change case design but every 2 years, and even the upgrades that are on the S years aren't exactly MUST HAVE upgrades. I always feel like they're just perfecting on what they already put out the year before that was radically new.
This watch will be like the original iPhone. Nobody wants a radically different product the year after they bought a new product line.
And the 3G wasn't radically new, not really. Case material changed, speed bump to 3G from 2G, etc. But... did the iPhone seriously change its look until iPhone 4? Nope.
I bet this watch is similar. Now, iPhone is a mature product, so it can change radically, if necessary, every 2 years. And, yet... has it? We got the 5/5s after the iPhone 4/4s and I don't think it was a radical change. It was just a little longer. It looked the same, otherwise.
Internals did change. That's going to be the biggest thing with the watch. It needs to look different externally faster than the iPhone needs to look different externally. And how will they do that, exactly, if the internals cannot change much and retain a stable design?
That watch is part fashion and part tech.
The phone is largely just tech.
A yearly refresh cycle but this year i would not be surprised to see a new model out before the holiday shopping season.
You have to remember that the competition will be releasing new watches left and right, some with better battery life and Andriod wear is expected to get ios support. No way Apple waits more than a year and honestly im thinking a cheaper version will be out in the fall for the student crowds.
You have to remember that the competition will be releasing new watches left and right, some with better battery life and Andriod wear is expected to get ios support. No way Apple waits more than a year and honestly im thinking a cheaper version will be out in the fall for the student crowds.
People like you confuse me... "I don't want to see a yearly cycle, because I don't want to buy it every year"?? ummm... then don't buy it every year. No one is forcing you to upgrade. If you are fine holding on to your watch for 2-3 years, then why would the existance of a newer model affect the performace of your model?
This would be a terrible business strategy. Can you imagine if the Mac refresh cycle was every 3-6 years, because that's how often most people buy a new computer? It hurts my head to think about. Apple wants to keep people buying all year every year. Look at the iPhone sales. They typically* drop every quarter after launch. The same will undoubtedly be true for the Watch. Plus do you think the competition will wait 2-3 years? Heck samsung alone will probably release 2 dozen watches in the next 2-3 years. I'm not saying that's the best strategy, but imagine how terrible that would make Apple look.
Miniature/wearable computing, such as the
If the yearly upgrades are substantial and I enjoy using the Watch, then I'll end up upgrading every time if given the option. However, I don't see the Watch as a product I would want to be enticed by upgrading yearly. To me, the more major con is that the first-gen Watch will depreciate much quicker on an annual cycle which is more motivation to push me to upgrade yearly. Why not upgrade when I can resell my Watch yearly and only pay a little bit more to own every generation than I would if I waited three years and purchased on a three-year cycle? At least that is my way of looking at it.
Apple refreshes their computers with one major generational revamp every few years, then upgrades internals as they become available that only provide a slight difference in actuality. At least with the Mac I have zero desire to upgrade my original Retina 15" MacBook Pro to the newest model, which is inferior in graphics performance for the same price I paid.
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
It is not, I repeat NOT, about getting the same people to buy a watch every year. I'm sure if they did Apple wouldn't complain, but that's not the point. Probably <5% of iPhone users upgrade every year. (the people on this forum are certainly skewed in that percentage)
The point is that majority of people who want the watch will buy it within the first 6 months... or then maybe for Christmas... But a year from now, if a person hasn't bought an Apple Watch yet, that means they don't find it compelling with the current capabilities. Sales would absolutely plummet for the second year, especially with a new android wear watch coming out every month. But you think Apple will hold off because most people aren't going to upgrade every year? Crazy
Which is why I said they'd do new case offerings and such. I just don't see them pumping tons of money into radically new tech every year.
Every Android watch I've seen except one was ugly in person. Thick, crappy band... just hideous.
If these watches look as good in person as they seem to in the videos at press events, I think they're going to hit most of their target market in the first 6 months.
And those people will help sell the watch to the initially-unconvinced shoppers.
I do think they'll upgrade and make changes, but they're not going to render these initial models obsolete by this time next year to chase after a market that's not mature yet.
If you keep the operating system up to date so you can use newer apps, then the refresh frequency does affect performance. With yearly upgrades on offer for iPhones, they start to become noticeably clunky after three years because iOS has steadily increasing hardware demands.
Of course, you could follow the practise of many iPhone users and refuse to install OS and app updates that you don't need. But many prefer not to.
I'm guessing that the version of iOS a person is running on their iPhone will dictate the version that they need to run on their Watch to have everything work properly.
So, if you upgrade your iPhone and its iOS regularly, you'll have to do the same with your watch or the Watch will have issues.
That's why I'm not thoroughly convinced that they plan to make radical changes to these watches as often as some of the others here think they will. Cosmetic changes? Absolutely as often as feasible. Radical tech changes? Not so quickly.
Mad Mac Maniac
macrumors 601
Of course they won't. Just as iPhone 5/5s aren't "obsoleted" by the iPhone 6. Just like the iPad Air isn't "obsoleted" by the iPad Air 2. But don't expect Apple to not update products simply to not make people feel badly about their old product... Why would that ever, ever be a consideration?
Well hold on, the topic was hardware update not software update. My point was that updated hardware won't make your existing device any worse than it would have already been without updated hardware. Unless you're making the argument that Apple will release a new Watch OS version only with updated hardware (i.e. the more frequently hardware is updated, the more frequently software is updated, therefore poorer performance on the older hardware). But I don't think you can make that connection. Apple has moved to yearly software updates regardless of new hardware (think Mac, think iPad 1, 2, and 3)
