What Will The Apple Watch Refresh Cycle Be? [MERGED]

[Z8beema]

Just your opinion.

 

[Night Spring]

I voted one year, but I could see it being a year and a half.

 

[safetyobc]

I think they will update the watch the first time at least around the 1 year mark. Not sure about the following years.

 

[convergent]

I voted for 2 years, because I'm assuming a new design will cause the bands to change and everyone would go crazy if the bands changed frequently. Also, the folks that bought the Edition would also go crazy if it isn't last a year. It is possible that they keep introducing minor tweaks with different colors and such, but I assume what you mean is a "V2" product that makes real changes. I would expect it to be a little thinner and a little faster... and that's about it. Looking at the band design, it is possible that they could do that without changing the bands. I've also imagined they may offer a generous trade up plan for Edition owners... maybe 50% price to trade up. Otherwise, I think they'll have a hard time getting people to keep spending that kind of money on something that is obsolete so soon.

 

[Z8beema]

I'm really not sure how I feel tbh. As a fashion accessory I feel it will be longer than a year because no one wants to buy a new phone and a new watch every year if you need the latest and greatest but as a tech piece it could very well be obsolete right and version two could be ready tomorrow. It's scary to think that yoy potentially paid 10k and there's something new and better within 365 days. I feel for that reason ( the fact that people would be pissed) it would be more likely for over a year

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Obviously any response here will be pure speculation. But I would anticipate that the watch would yield a very similar cycle to iPhone and iPad (i.e. annually). I could see it being a bit more squishy than iPhone, because it doesn't have carrier contracts to worry about, but I think Apple beleives that 1 year has become a good development length (they've even moved OS X to annual releases). They'd probably do the same with Mac's, but are dependent on Intel.

I hate to sound unoriginal and like a broken record, but I'd anticipate pretty similar OS updates and support cycles to iPhone and iPad. So essentially 1 big annual update* and support Watch hardware for around the ~4 year timeframe. iPad 2 came out March 2011 and will likely be supportd through Oct of 2015, so that's 4.5 years. iPhone 4s came out in Sept 2011 and will be supported through sept 2015, so that's 4 years.

Of course that's not to say the Apple watch will stop functioning at the 4 year mark of course, but iPhone 4 just lost support last month. I think anyone who's walking around with an iPhone 4 either despeartely needs to upgrade or is the type of person that doesn't care about having the latest software updates anyway.

*alternatively, I could also see Apple taking a new approach to software updates. Giving minor updates periodically and not having a major X.0 release ever (or at least not advertising as such)

Wow, I didn't expect to see my post from over a year ago, haha... I'm still pretty confident in what I stated last year. I really don't understand the people that say 2+ year refresh cycle. People love to reference the Apple TV, but Apple has always stated that was a hobby and treated it thusly. Apple is clearly going all in with the Watch. I honestly can't imagine a scenario where Apple Watch 2 isn't released in time for the holidays 2016 at the very latest. Even if it's just a minor spec bump and nothing else.

 

[Trius]

I actually think there could be a Watch refresh later in 2015 to go hand in hand with the native SDK release for full apps.

I doubt this. I believe the first gen hardware was made with the SDK in mind. The software just wasn't ready in time.

 

[WarHeadz]

I voted 2 years because that would make me feel better about my life.

 

[davygee]

I voted 1.5 years, but it could be 2 years. I certainly won't be any longer than 2 years.

We have seen 2 new colour models released in September and we now have WatchOS2, which is realistically the version of WatchOS that Apple wanted to release with the Watch in April but just couldn't get round to getting it out. Apple Watch, as of early October is available in most countries where it matters.

So can I see them releasing a v2.0 in Spring 2016? No I can't. It's more likely going to be Fall 2016 or Spring 2017 at the latest. I am going for Fall 2016 for v2.0 and I reckon we will see v3.0 somewhere between Fall 2017-Fall 2018.

This is my timeline guess:

Oct 2015 - May 2016 - WatchOS2 in version updates
Jun 2016 - WWDC (Announce WatchOS3)
Sep 2016 - Apple Watch 2 released and WatchOS3 released for all Apple Watches
Oct 2016 - May 2017 - WatchOS3 in version updates
Jun 2017 - WWDC (Annouce WatchOS4)

 

[Mr. Donahue]

I just don't see the Apple Watch refreshing every year. Not even 2. I think it'll be at least 3 years.
This is a small item as it is! It'll take even more time to advance to make it noticeably thinner and faster and have a camera and this and that.

I just really hope they keep the same size band adapters so we can carry over our bands. That's the whole great thing about it is being able to alter the look of the watch.
It will suck to have to buy multiple bands every time you buy a new watch. But I wouldn't be surprised if you did. It's not like you can use the same case for your new phone.

 

[sziehr]

I suspect bands and adapters are not going to change. Apple put a lot of time in that design i just don't see them changing it. I can see some margins on the adapter where on could save a few mm off top and bottom and the band would still work. I do think this will be a every 2 year product cycle. The reason is this sort of a hobby for them a serious hobby but still a hobby. They refresh hobby projects ever 2 years. The non-hobby lines like MacBooks or iMacs or iPad / iPhone get a refresh in some capacity annually. I am away the air 2 got a pass this year and that is a strange thing indeed.