What's Next for Apple's 14-Inch and 16-Inch MacBook Pro Models

[DavidSchaub]

I was certainly hoping for the RAM to to increase to 48G / 96G / 192 G / and especially 384 GB.

It would be WILD if the M2 Pro / Max / Ultra / Quadra actually did use the 3nm process. It both seems unlikely, and simultaneously possible. It would make the M2 "pro" lineup quite exciting.

 

[theorist9]

Per googling - I can see that TSMC started volume production of N5 chips in April of 2020. Apples started shipping M1 devices at the end of November 2020 - so call it an eight month lag from entering-volume-production to in-the-hands-of-consumers.
Do we know when TSMC started (or when they'll start) N3 production? The only thing I can see is 2H22. I haven't seen anything more specific. I'm hoping for 3nm Apple Silicon no later than WWDC 23.

I've read the same thing: In TSMC's July 14, 2022 Earnings Call, they said volume production for N3 will begin 2H 2022, and revenue contribution (which means shipping to customers) is expected to start in the 1H 2023:

https://investor.tsmc.com/english/e...99cda9eeecc65315449c/TSMC 2Q22 Transcript.pdf

 

[darngooddesign]

Speculations aside, I just wish there was better rumours by this point as to whether apple will have another keynote this year in October.

Anything reliable is by definition not a rumor. You might as well wait because no one with reliable information is going to break their NDA.

Apple will have a keynote, but it may have nothing to do with the MBPs.

 

[name99]

Per googling - I can see that TSMC started volume production of N5 chips in April of 2020. Apples started shipping M1 devices at the end of November 2020 - so call it an eight month lag from entering-volume-production to in-the-hands-of-consumers.
Do we know when TSMC started (or when they'll start) N3 production? The only thing I can see is 2H22. I haven't seen anything more specific. I'm hoping for 3nm Apple Silicon no later than WWDC 23.

A14 shipped on N5 in September. And doubtless was being produced in large numbers before September to build up inventory.
I don't your methodology is very helpful. The volumes for a "professional class" Apple chip on N3 are sufficiently low compared to the iPhone chips that a much shorter time to build up inventory is feasible.
N3 risk began in 2021, so volume scheduled for 2H2022 seems like a realistic match to the BEGINNING of 2H2022, not an Intel "we manufactured one chip on Dec 30 2022 so technically it counts" type schedule.
If volume begins in mid 2022, and low'ish volumes are all that's required by Apple, I could see an M2 Pro lineup announced either with the iPhone event (perhaps with shipping in November) or at a separate event a month later (perhaps announcing iPadOS and new M2-based iPads?)

The more interesting question is will Apple even ship an M2 Pro? Doesn't it makes far more sense to ship an A16-based M3 Pro? Ultimately what's the scheduling order that's most helpful for Apple? In the past iPhones came first because of history and the transition from iPhone to M1; but it's not clear this is optimal going forward.
Perhaps we get annual iPhone (as always), portable chips (M2-class) and updated iPads every two years; and pro class either on alternating two years or maybe every three years?

Right now there are so many uncertainties it's impossible to say what the pattern will be! The M1 Pro and Max were somewhat "obvious" extensions of the M1, but with the immediate problem of the AS transition out the way, perhaps there's an alternative path going forward that allows for somewhat more flexibility for the customer base, more of a mix-and-match amongst number of CPUs, number of GPUs, and RAM, along with a new branding of the Pro-class chips as not M but something else? (In a sense three Apple chip lines like Atom vs "normal Intel" vs Xeon?)
This isn't *just* branding: if you have an always-on design, while you still care about saving energy, different types of tradeoffs may make sense relative to a battery-driven design. You may want to start in throwing new IO functionality like CXL or next gen PCIe. By the time you've added in all the changes that seem reasonable for a "Xeon-class" target, you're in a rather different place from either an A chip or an M chip.

 

[name99]

While I agree Apple's RAM prices are hih; removable ram would add a lot of thickness and since thin is in that negates using them as well.

It's not just size.
Onur Mutlu has multiple papers pointing out that
- most sub-arrays of most DRAM perform MUCH better than spec on a variety of important metrics. They support, eg, better latency, lower refresh rates, and lower retention voltages. But that's only *most* sub-arrays; there are always a few sub-arrays that let the team down and only just meeting the specifications.

This means that if a device is using a random DRAM it has to operate the DRAM according to worst case specifications. But suppose the device could fully characterize the DRAM in the factory, record, for every sub-array, these properties, and then optimize interaction with the DRAM based on those properties...
Well, that's exactly what Apple does! This 2019 patent, for example, describes how sub-arrays are classified as requiring a higher vs a lower retention voltage: https://patents.google.com/patent/US11094395B2

I'm not interested in the endless, and oh so freaking boring, fight over whether prices are "fair".
I just want to point out to the 3% or so of readers who actually care about technology that
- seriously novel things are possible once your DRAM is locked to a device
- this is enabled by extreme categorization/testing of the DRAM in the factory and recording all the results on chip
- Apple has already started down this path. I know of at least this case where we have some indication. There are surely more cases; Apple have worked with Onur Mutlu in the past, and the guy spent basically the entire 2010s writing about different ways you can get much more value out of your DRAM if you engage in this sort of characterization.

 

[BuffaloTF]

We do know the machines will get M2 Pro and M2 Max chips
we know that? did I miss the release from Apple? I think we assume ...
M2 is 5nm+, rumors said that 3nm is moving into volume production in Q3'22, rumor says only iPhone 14 Pro models will get A15 ... could it be that the next Pro/Max/Ultra M will be 3nm? would that make them M3?

Only Apple knows ... we here speculate, all of us ...

You're worried about that, but this one worried me...

Gurman did not share details on the M2 Pro, but it is expected to be less powerful than the M2 Max.

Would anyone expect anything less? Do we really need to be told it will be? Why would a Max exist at a higher price point if it was of equal or lesser power?

 

[Scotticus]

I would like:

• Since M2 can have up to 24 GB RAM, M2 Pro with a choice of 24GB and 48GB RAM, and M2 Max with 96GB RAM
• New Black finish (Graphite?) replaces Space Gray
• Spec bumped to HDMI 2.1, Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.2
• CFexpress replaces SD
• Ultra Wideband

I'd agree on 2, 3, and 5, but 96GB of RAM is ridiculous, and they'll never replace the SD with CFX

 

[darngooddesign]

I would like to see Apple use a multi-card slot like some newer mirrorless cameras use. Wouldn't benefit me since my camera uses SD, but it would be appropriate for a Pro laptop.

 

[chucker23n1]

We do know the machines will get M2 Pro and M2 Max chips
we know that? did I miss the release from Apple? I think we assume ...

We don't.

What we do know is that Gurman, after the M1 was released, got the M1 Pro, M1 Max and M1 Ultra right, but wrongly predicted the M1 Extreme. My guess is the latter was at one point planned, but canceled long before any of those shipped.

One thing we don't know is if the M2 Pro, etc. will even be a thing. The A14 was announced in September 2020, the M1 in November (2 months), the M1 Pro/Max in October 2021 (13 months), and the M1 Ultra in March 2022 (18 months). The A15 was announced in September 2021, and the M1 in June 2022 (already 9 months). The A16 is probably something like 6 weeks away, and will likely bring a process shrink.

For the M2, where efficiency plays a greater role (MacBook Air), the A15 was worth it: the Avalanche bump is relatively minor for 19 months, but the Blizzard (e-core) bump was significant, leading to improved battery life, and as a bonus, the GPU has improved a fair amount as well.

But for the pro Macs (MBP, Studio, MP), I think a more significant upgrade is needed.

We haven't really seen yet how Apple thinks about the cadence of their Mac chips. Was M1 to M2 (19 months) an outlier for supply constraint reasons, or is that roughly what they're shooting for?

 

[DavidSchaub]

We don't.

What we do know is that Gurman, after the M1 was released, got the M1 Pro, M1 Max and M1 Ultra right, but wrongly predicted the M1 Extreme. My guess is the latter was at one point planned, but canceled long before any of those shipped.

One thing we don't know is if the M2 Pro, etc. will even be a thing. The A14 was announced in September 2020, the M1 in November (2 months), the M1 Pro/Max in October 2021 (13 months), and the M1 Ultra in March 2022 (18 months). The A15 was announced in September 2021, and the M1 in June 2022 (already 9 months). The A16 is probably something like 6 weeks away, and will likely bring a process shrink.

For the M2, where efficiency plays a greater role (MacBook Air), the A15 was worth it: the Avalanche bump is relatively minor for 19 months, but the Blizzard (e-core) bump was significant, leading to improved battery life, and as a bonus, the GPU has improved a fair amount as well.

But for the pro Macs (MBP, Studio, MP), I think a more significant upgrade is needed.

We haven't really seen yet how Apple thinks about the cadence of their Mac chips. Was M1 to M2 (19 months) an outlier for supply constraint reasons, or is that roughly what they're shooting for?

The A* chips (basically the same performance/power/thermal product space) was usually about a 18 month window, so I see no reason the M* wouldn't continue that. It also means the M* might skip either the A16 and A17; but really, all we know is what Apple HAS done, not what they WILL do

The real unknown is whether the M* Pro/Max/Ultra/Quadra (?) will all share that cadence, or whether they'll be even less frequent... or if SOME products will rot on the vine for longer.

The pro Macs could easily get the same performance bump, plus some other SoC fun. Nothing is wrong with that.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

Will the 2 new cores be efficiency or performance?

Hopefully efficiency

 

[DavidSchaub]

Hopefully efficiency

I think they were rumoured to be 2 efficiency cores before; and if the M2 Pro/Max were designed to still be on 5nm, it would definitely make more sense to add more efficiency cores than add more performance cores.

 

[xkam1x]

There is no need to rush M2 Pro and M2 Max to market. M1 Pro and M1 Max CPU is an efficient power house compared to other market offerings. GPU is weak and could do with a boost but sufficient for most workloads, upgrade would help gaming but only a small subset of users actually use Mac for gaming.

 

[ralph_sws]

I would like:

• Since M2 can have up to 24 GB RAM, M2 Pro with a choice of 24GB and 48GB RAM, and M2 Max with 96GB RAM
• New Black finish (Graphite?) replaces Space Gray
• Spec bumped to HDMI 2.1, Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.2
• CFexpress replaces SD
• Ultra Wideband

For what HDMI 2.1? External projector? there are no such available. External monitors better connect via thunderbolt/display port
Black finish? Lots lots chipping
CFCards? they are not very popular and very expensive
Wifi 6e only for very very short distance

 

[Sensamic]

So just CPU upgrade. That´s all.

 

[Haust]

This surprises me, but then again my eyes aren't what they used to be since I have an S8 Ultra and probably can't tell. Doesn't Samsung use standard WOLED in their panels, which has four sub pixels for each color (red, green, blue, white)? If they're using basic WOLED panels, which is what I thought the Galaxy Tabs used, wouldn't that make white a no-brainer just by shutting off the non-white sub pixels?

It occurred to me that maybe you're running Samsung's equivalent of TrueTone, which removes blue and casts things in a yellow tint. Could that be it?

It has an AMOLED display. Believe me I’ve tried every option available to get a better white tone out of the galaxy. Yes, I’ve turned off Eye Comfort Shield, Adaptive Brightness, and even tried Color Adjustment. Kind like the speakers, it sounds great until you put it up next to the iPad Pro 12.9. Same is true with the display. The one thing that the Samsung blows the iPad away it is watching videos of the ocean. The blue water on the Samsung is truly eye catching. The iPad is ok, but the depth of blue is just not there.

 

[laudern]

I'm still deciding if it's worth upgrading my 2009 core2duo unibody macbook. For email, internet and Ms office, it's still amazing. Would I notice any difference???

 

[garylapointe]

I'm still deciding if it's worth upgrading my 2009 core2duo unibody macbook. For email, internet and Ms office, it's still amazing. Would I notice any difference???

And I'm feeling the struggle on my 2015 MacBook Pro 15" 16GB MBP 2.8GHz quad-core i7 with a Radeon M370X video card (that's a 2-step processor upgrade [2.2GHz->2.5GHz->2.8GHz] and a graphics card upgrade).

Maybe it's time for a reformat and fresh install of everything on mine. This might not be a bad time as I don't think I'm getting any more big macOS updates past Monterey...

 

[Karma*Police]

The iPad Pro for multi task users is terrible, for any serious work I use the iPad as a Sidecar display..

Never thought I would be so disappointed in a product like the iPad Pro with the Magic Keyboard

Apple lost their way. iPad was supposed to be the computer for the masses but as always happens with MBA types, they saw dollar signs in pushing the iPad upmarket and the value prop compared to Macs became absurdly lopsided.

I love my iPad and prefer the UX over the Mac for most computing tasks outside of serious work, but the platform definitely seems headed in the wrong direction.

 

[mjz_5]

One more Thunderbolt Port, HDMI 2.1 port that allows HDMI out AND in. Camera improvements, and just overall subtle improvements in cooling for the increased CPU/GPU/RAM improvements. These laptops are nearly perfect to be honest. Maybe in a few years make the trackpad able to mirror a portion of the regular display so we can use Apple Pencil to draw. Maybe have 10key in a larger 18” model or figure out a nice way to implement it into the new palm rest or trackpad also like others, but I’m still on the fence on that one. Only if they can implement it in a really good way.

So I would be able to use my laptop as a monitor?

 

[tobybrut]

It has an AMOLED display. Believe me I’ve tried every option available to get a better white tone out of the galaxy. Yes, I’ve turned off Eye Comfort Shield, Adaptive Brightness, and even tried Color Adjustment. Kind like the speakers, it sounds great until you put it up next to the iPad Pro 12.9. Same is true with the display. The one thing that the Samsung blows the iPad away it is watching videos of the ocean. The blue water on the Samsung is truly eye catching. The iPad is ok, but the depth of blue is just not there.

AMOLED is their marketing term for active matrix OLED. There are a few types of AMOLED, one of which is called RGBW, which is known in the TV world as WOLED (white OLED). It's basically red, blue, green, and white sub pixels with the white sub pixel present to make up for the lack of OLED's brightness.

There is another configuration I know of for AMOLED displays called the PenTile configuration, which is sort of a triangular orientation of pixels with two green, two red sub pixels and one central blue pixel (two triangular small reds on opposite sides of a square big blue pixel along with two small triangular green on the other two sides of the blue). I was assuming Samsung was using the RGBW version, but I think I was wrong. I think they're using PenTile. The PenTile has no white sub pixel. In order to generate white, it has to modulate the five different sub pixels to the right degree and that's where I'm guessing they're messing up. With RGBW, all you have to do is turn off the red, blue, and green and you have pure white.

 

[Haust]

AMOLED is their marketing term for active matrix OLED. There are a few types of AMOLED, one of which is called RGBW, which is known in the TV world as WOLED (white OLED). It's basically red, blue, green, and white sub pixels with the white sub pixel present to make up for the lack of OLED's brightness.

There is another configuration I know of for AMOLED displays called the PenTile configuration, which is sort of a triangular orientation of pixels with two green, two red sub pixels and one central blue pixel (two triangular small reds on opposite sides of a square big blue pixel along with two small triangular green on the other two sides of the blue). I was assuming Samsung was using the RGBW version, but I think I was wrong. I think they're using PenTile. The PenTile has no white sub pixel. In order to generate white, it has to modulate the five different sub pixels to the right degree and that's where I'm guessing they're messing up. With RGBW, all you have to do is turn off the red, blue, and green and you have pure white.

I think this is the case. White is a challenge for it for sure. I just wish the iPad color popped a bit more than it does though.

 

[Arnold Ziffel]

It does not make sense that Apple would release M2 powered MBP’s this year. I’m betting on 2023.

 

[throAU]

At some point apple will put new chips in stuff.


... lol this isn't news.

 

[danielsutton]

While I agree Apple's RAM prices are hih; removable ram would add a lot of thickness and since thin is in that negates using them as well.



I'd just get a bluetooth travel keyboard and use it. Cheaper solution and works fine. I did that for a while until I found a Magic keyboard return on sale for 1/3 the retail price. It's nice, but my old BT keyboard worked just fine. In some ways it was better because you could adjust the iPad/keyboard to your preferences, such as iPad on table and keyboard on lap. The MK touchpad is nice but I rarely use it.



I doubt Ethernet would return because of the port size requirements and with fast WiFi it's really become a legacy port for many users. For those that need it a dongle works just fine. As a result, I doubt Apple sees any need to bring it back.



Actually, it's 160, with airline approval, to allow for extended life batteries available for some laptops. Apple could make a more powerful battery but that risks some airlines not allowing those MB on their flights.

While I agree Apple's RAM prices are hih; removable ram would add a lot of thickness and since thin is in that negates using them as well.



I'd just get a bluetooth travel keyboard and use it. Cheaper solution and works fine. I did that for a while until I found a Magic keyboard return on sale for 1/3 the retail price. It's nice, but my old BT keyboard worked just fine. In some ways it was better because you could adjust the iPad/keyboard to your preferences, such as iPad on table and keyboard on lap. The MK touchpad is nice but I rarely use it.



I doubt Ethernet would return because of the port size requirements and with fast WiFi it's really become a legacy port for many users. For those that need it a dongle works just fine. As a result, I doubt Apple sees any need to bring it back.



Actually, it's 160, with airline approval, to allow for extended life batteries available for some laptops. Apple could make a more powerful battery but that risks some airlines not allowing those MB on their flights.

There is no substitute for wired Ethernet connections. This is true especially after what we learned during the WFH era. Wi-Fi can be fast, but it is still Wi-Fi, and the signals can be compromised by building materials, distance from the access point, etc. For the fastest and most stable connections, wired is the way to go, even for laptops like MacBook Pros. I do not have a desktop computer, I have a MacBook Pro that I placed on my desk, and I also bring it with me when I am out and about. When I am away from the desk, Wi-Fi is sufficient, when I am traveling and the like, but when I need to do real work, and I am at my desk, I have it pugged into wall power, and I connect it directly to the router with an Ethernet cable. I would very much appreciate being able to use the Ethernet cable without a dongle, especially since the RJ-45 connector has a nice latch on it that holds the cable firmly in place when connected. It is too easy for a USB or Thunderbolt dongle to be unplugged by the slightest movement

Apple has already added back an array of ports that were taken away in previous generations of the MacBook Pro, and I am wondering if this is due to the departure of Jony Ive and his obsession with form over function. Appearance is important, absolutely, but if a computer is so beautiful that it removes many features that are desirable for professional users, it will become less functional. Now that the techno people are calling the shots, I am hoping that the Ethernet port will reappear.