The tides can turn quickly. In an industry based on trends, you can be hip today and be the laughingstock tomorrow. Nothing can last forever. Name a company on these gadgets that was #1 forever? Sony won volume sales with the PS1 and PS2 before being the laughingstock by 2006 with the PS3. Sony was the portable music industry before iPod came along.
Five years ago, the smartphone industry was dominated by Symbian, RIM, Windows Mobile, and Palm. Where are they now? Symbian is dead. Palm is dead. RIM is losing marketshare here in the U.S. And Windows Mobile is not the WM we know anymore and got completely revamped.
Just last year, HP is the #1 computer maker and Nokia is the #1 phone maker. HP sent shockwaves by announcing they are getting out of the PC hardware business. Nokia looks to be overtaken by a trojan sent from Microsoft and may never be the same. Motorola was on the top of the world five years ago with their RAZR. Eventually, Motorola split and the mobile division got bought out by Google. It would be naive to think the Apple gravy train on biscuit wheels to be chugging along forever.
I have three candidates -
Google because they just bought Motorola and can control the hardware and software now. And Google has the deep pockets. I look at it similar to the Windows vs Mac war back in the 80's and early 90's. It wasn't until Windows 95 when sales really took off in the consumer market. That was a 10 year gap from Windows 1.0. Android is only three years old. It has time to completely change.
Samsung because they make their own internal components, can offer different price points, and already competes in many different fields of the multimedia industry. This is why Apple gets the best stuff. Apple controls the supply chain. Samsung makes their own stuff in both hardware and software (externally and internally).
RIM because next year is an election year and CEO's are the best endorsers. Yes, they are a longshot, but things can change fast. The old dog still has something left. Nintendo was a laughingstock with their GameCube before making a dramatic comeback with the Wii in 2006. Like Apple, RIM controls both software and hardware. I believe QNX will bring them back and BlackBerries can be found on all carriers in different price points. Touchscreen-only or touchscreen + physical QWERTY should be common now. And what you see in the USA doesn't always apply to the rest of the world. BlackBerry is getting bigger in other countries with mass populations like Indonesia.
Eventually, people will have a burnout with "apps." At some point, enough is enough with it. Overkill. Some may just want to "simplify" it by going back to the core basics. And the recent tablet fad sorta overlaps the uses of an iPhone anyway...
I just feel bad for other companies like Nokia, Sony, and Nintendo. Many have become victims to Apple's own success. But for the foreseeable future, Apple controls the best parts from all the suppliers and has $75B in cash reserves. They will be fine. Steve Jobs can't live forever though. Eventually if someone else supercedes him, then Apple might make a couple blunders, loses the focus that he has, or just won't be "cool" anymore before starting to decline. It happens. Things get played out. Look at the music industry.
My thoughts EXACTLY.
I definitely get "app burnout" sometimes. I'll be out during the day and I notice that I'm compulsively checking my phone for updates, apps, games etc. WAY too often. Should I honestly be doing that? At what point does it become a distraction? Now I'm trying to focus just on the core features of my phone since I've noticed an OCD type of effect building up that's counter productive. I want a phone that increases my productivity, not one that necessarily play the best games or have the best apps. Those are added benefits. The CORE features come first. I think people need to step back and seriously think about this.
I have an iPad 2 and a Nexus S right now and honestly, I don't need TWO powerful devices with me at all times. I'm thinking of switching to BlackBerry for my phone, then using my iPad 2 for class and most of my mobile computing tasks. I'm definitely interested in the iPhone 5, but honestly, I don't NEED both an iPad and an iPhone. Sure, it's cool, but their features and selling points overlap vastly.
The future is definitely bright for Apple, Google, and *gasp* RIM. After the iPhone radically changed the industry, companies realized pretty harshly that they need to constantly change their products to predict upcoming trends. THAT's how you control markets and make the most money. I can't believe how stagnant RIM was in adopting touch screens or faster processors in their phones. iOS was a catalyst for Microsoft to create Windows Phone 7, which IMO, is the only truly unique OS out there besides iOS. Without iOS, Microsoft would have never had the innovation to create WP7.
Google really needs to make Android smoother and more consistent in every area possible. They need to hardware accelerate EVERYTHING. Even these new powerhouse dual-core processors aren't entirely consistent performance wise when running Android. Improve the performance, crank out higher quality Nexus devices, and make the UI more simple and I think Android will be a STRONG contender for iOS.
Google has all of the necessary ideas; Search, TV, NFC, Navigation, and etc. but their execution is flat out terrible. Everything is a giant project for Google and sometimes it's hard to take them seriously. Google Maps has been in beta for how long now? That's their biggest crutch. I think they're trying to wind down on creating so many "projects" and focus more on "solutions" that everyone can actually use. Who knows what will come out of this Motorola deal. I hope that Google uses them to vertically control their products. Google has a tendency to say things then do the complete opposite.
These past few weeks have just been insane. Want to know the best part about it? Things are only going to keep ramping up! iOS 5, iPhone 5, possible new Apple TV, Nexus Prime, Android 4.0, possible Nexus Tablet & new Google TV, Windows Phone 7.5 Mango, possible new Nokia flagship phone etc. are all going to happen within 2 months of each other. I've never seen the tech industry innovating and growing at such a rapid pace!
This is a great thread though. Some of you are posting really good ideas! Lets keep it rolling.
