Agreed, all an iPad Air 3 with the rumoured improvements would likely do is drive sales of the Air 2 from those who are looking to upgrade iPad 2/3s. If Apple wants to drrive iPad sales up again, it needs to look at the UI - even after all these years it's still just a large iPod Touch. Thus people are happy with old iPads for the internet and mail. If Apple could come up with a decent productivity UI for the iPad there may be a whole wave of people willing to give them another go.
This is entirely the point. APPLE DID NOT UPGRADE THE IPAD THIS YEAR.
How could you NOT expect iPad sales to fall further?
If Apple wants to boost iPad sales, it needs a compelling upgrade. Improved UI is a great place to start. iPad is not a computer. The majority of iPad buyers don't want a computer. They don't like computers, but iPad does everything they need and they're perfectly happy it's not a computer. Frankly, iOS is a great idea for a phone that fits in your pocket, not iPad! iPad doesn't need to be a computer replacement, MacBook and MacBook Air are the size of iPad and easier to carry and use than iPad if you want a keyboard.
There's 2 ways to get current owners to upgrade.
Compelling New Features (more compelling than features that already exist on iPhone, like 3D Touch - and nothing that makes it more like a Mac, because iPad owners don't want a computer) or a
Phenomenal Speed Boost.
Ignoring your flagship product for an expensive niche Pro version
is a slap in the face to millions of ordinary iPad owners out there, wondering if there's a good reason to upgrade their slowing vintage iPads.
More importantly, is it a
sign of things to come? Apple does not care about iPad owners and it doesn't care about the product. It has the PRO and the Mini for price sensitive customers, both with better profit margins.
Neglect is the only word for it. Any wonder iPad sales are heading south.
And
after the iPad 3 experience (upgraded after 6 months to iPad 4 for readers who don't know the history),
no one is going to TRUST Apple to do the right thing with a mid-cycle iPad Air update, for fear the curse of the iPad 3 will befall buyers of the iPad Air 3.
The
signs are already there—no 3D Touch, Smart Connector but no mention of Pencil support, two features that could well be
added on-cycle in September, to the cheering of the media who get every upgrade 'for their job' and not normal users who have to make a buying decision for years ahead.
iPad Air 3 is already cursed. It's cursed by the bitter iPad 3 experience, which seems only confirmed by utter neglect of the product and disrespect already shown to loyal buyers this year.
And even if an iPad Air 3 appears in March, it will be cursed by
speculation about a September upgrade! Whether a September upgrade happens at all.
Apple has made its own bed and now it's going to lie in it. iPad sales will take hit after hit for another year, and
NOBODY is going to RISK an iPad Air 3, as it's safer to wait for iPad Air 4.