Why our AVP returning poll results is so different from Reddit?

[AVPKakaka-1]

Our returning poll is like 50% returning rate.. It is a disaster for Apple, and very negative for XR industry…

Reddit poll shows about 20% returning rate…

All with about 200 votes.

Why is it so different?

 

[Basic75]

Of course the results are different. If you poll for "are you pregnant" in front of a hospital, a university, and a Harley Davidson dealer you'll also get wildly different results. A poll is only meaningful if you at least try to get the participants to be a large enough representative sample of the overall relevant population.

 

[AVPKakaka-1]

Of course the results are different. If you poll for "are you pregnant" in front of a hospital, a university, and a Harley Davidson dealer you'll also get wildly different results. A poll is only meaningful if you at least try to get the participants to be a large enough representative sample of the overall relevant population.

THEN Why is Reddit AVP forum user so different? What I am trying to figure out is whether XR industry is failing… because XR industry has been struggling for so many years and waited for so many year for Apple product to turn things around… if even Apple AVP is failing, then where is the hope?

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

I'll tell you, there are a lot of Apple haters here who try to disparage Apple whenever they can. Could be, many people saying they are returning never actually had it to begin with here.

Reddit, though, may have a better representation of people who actually have the VP. There was another post to an article from a guy saying he's spoken with Apple Retail leaders off the record. They apparently stated they have not seen the expected return rate. A little more than an iPhone launch. Most of the people returning are YouTubers and people who got sick using it after a day or two. Nothing like what's portrayed here.

 

[Basic75]

Why is Reddit AVP forum user so different?

Can you give us a link to the reddit poll?

 

[surferfb]

I wouldn’t believe either poll - anyone can vote.

 

[Basic75]

They apparently stated they have not seen the expected return rate.

Do we know what their expected return rate is?

 

[ninethirty]

I've found that the vast majority of people who spend time here are older now, a little out of touch, and basically just live their lives hating on Apple, whereas the people in the Apple subreddit... actually like Apple.

Vision Pro is going to be just fine.

 

[AVPKakaka-1]

Can you give us a link to the reddit poll?

https://www.reddit.com/r/VisionPro/comments/1aqvhpm
This is one of them.. returning rate is like 24%

 

[AVPKakaka-1]

Do we know what their expected return rate is?

The XR industry standard is about 20-30% returning rate… So if AVP have something in that range, it is quite normal…

 

[Macaholic868]

I'll tell you, there are a lot of Apple haters here who try to disparage Apple whenever they can. Could be, many people saying they are returning never actually had it to begin with here.

Reddit, though, may have a better representation of people who actually have the VP. There was another post to an article from a guy saying he's spoken with Apple Retail leaders off the record. They apparently stated they have not seen the expected return rate. A little more than an iPhone launch. Most of the people returning are YouTubers and people who got sick using it after a day or two. Nothing like what's portrayed here.

Exactly. There are an inordinate amount of posters in these forums who for whatever reason, and I suspect I know why, have been rooting for this device to fail since it was announced. All you have to do is look at the thread where you have people polling others about when, not if, they will recognize the device is DOA when we’re talking about a device that’s only been out there for two weeks that clearly is catering to a very small niche market at this point with Apple only planning on producing and trying to sell 500,000 units globally in 2024. That kind of garbage this early with the return rate nowhere near 50% despite their desire for it to be true tells you all you need to know about them.

I just finished reading Gurman’s article this week which is all about users who are taking there’s back. In it he says what most sane people have been saying. Since Apple doesn’t release the numbers we don’t know exactly what the rate of return is but it appears from his conversations with Apple retail employees to be a higher rate than device like the iPhone and iPad but nowhere near 50% of total devices sold. With some stores having days with no returns, other stores having days seeing one or two returns a day and others seeing a higher number on certain days in the stores with the highest amount of daily traffic but even on the worst days we’re talking less than 10 per day. That seems to be the general consensus that I’ve read in similar articles as well. It varies from store to store, is higher than it is for most devices which is to be expected, but nowhere near some massive failure with a 50% return rate or anything approaching those levels.

You can bet there were a number of users, particularly reviewers and content creators looking for a subject matter that’ll draw eyeballs and those users who wanted a take a look at the device so they could be one of the first to have one, who purchased the device but never seriously intended to keep it. I’ll be very interesting to see what that return rate looks like a week from now moving forward after everybody who rushed to get their hands on one as early as possible hits that two week window. I’m willing to bet the return rate drops from where it is today after those who were never likely to keep it in the first place but still wanted to be among the first to get one out of the gate are past their return window.

 

[TechnoMonk]

Reflects the bias of the participants, and narrow spread between the sites. Polls with out verification is more a reflection of opinions of the people on a particular site, not the return rate of a product. If the polls asks to verify the purchase and return, it would be worth something.

 

[MarkNewton2023]

Our returning poll is like 50% returning rate.. It is a disaster for Apple, and very negative for XR industry…

Reddit poll shows about 20% returning rate…

All with about 200 votes.

Why is it so different?

Why does anyone care on AVP return statistics? What are the benefits? Satisfaction of product failure? Does this satisfaction make one’s happy? This satisfaction will not take a long time because it is only temporary feeling. Only Apple needs to know the statistics to determine if the product manufacture can be continued and perfected. Be kind to other happiness and success and we wil be happy Keep calm and be happy for others success and happiness 😊 life is too short to be unhappy! 😊

 

[otozuz]

From this source the return rate appears to be the same as other products.

So far, the early return rate on Apple Vision Pro is pretty low

As it is a polarizing product, there are obviously some returns of Apple Vision Pro headsets. So far, the narrative that it is being returned in droves to Apple Retail appears false.

appleinsider.com

 

[TechnoMonk]

From this source the return rate appears to be the same as other products.

So far, the early return rate on Apple Vision Pro is pretty low

As it is a polarizing product, there are obviously some returns of Apple Vision Pro headsets. So far, the narrative that it is being returned in droves to Apple Retail appears false.

appleinsider.com

Honestly Apple needs to do something about these clickbait You Tubers. They are treating return policy as a rental. If you gonna make money out of the return policy, pay for it.

There other major return segment of the tech-using public appears to be media producers who are using the purchase as a free rental. When I asked who seemed to be returning the headset the most, we got a clear answer.
"It's just the f***ing YouTubers so far," one retail employee exasperatedly told me late on Thursday.

 

[klasma]

THEN Why is Reddit AVP forum user so different?

Reddit’s demographics skews younger than the MacRumors forums. That’s probably the main reason.

What I am trying to figure out is whether XR industry is failing… because XR industry has been struggling for so many years and waited for so many year for Apple product to turn things around… if even Apple AVP is failing, then where is the hope?

It’s not failing, at least not yet. It will at the very least muddle along for a couple of years. It may end up as either a HomePod-level or a Watch-level product. It won’t replace the iPhone, and personally I’m skeptical it will reach iPad levels in usage.

But apart from that, you’re trying to predict something that really is not predictable in that way. Even if the AVP has a 50% return rate, that’s unimportant if Apple can still sell all the units they produce, and also the second or third gen may be improved in ways that suddenly make for a much wider market.

 

[cateye]

There are in inordinate amount of posters in these forums who for whatever reason, and I suspect I know why, have been rooting for this device to fail since it was announced.

And so what do we say about the opposite? The people who seem to have a significant amount of their identity wrapped around in chasing down the Negative Nancys as if it were God's Work?

Would you like to see the PMs I've received when I dare criticize Apple (despite being a 30+ year Apple user myself?) Expletive-ladened screeds from throwaway accounts accusing me of "contributing to the failure of Apple's vision." Seriously, that's what someone said to me. Presumably an adult wrote something as stupid as that, although the mind boggles.

There's certainly something about Apple that engenders a deep resentment toward the company and a deep, creepy emotional need to defend the company, beyond all boundaries of normal behavior, on both sides. But it would behoove the "fans" to remember that criticism is not existential, and someone who decides a product is not for them is not thrusting a knife into the heart of their or Apple's identity.

And aren't we all so lucky we have the time and money and presence of mind to engage in these toys to our heart's content? Just... with less emotion would be nice. Save it for something that can love (or hate) you back. Anyway, that's my Hot Take™. Now everyone can get back to fighting about it.

 

[klasma]

There was another post to an article from a guy saying he's spoken with Apple Retail leaders off the record. They apparently stated they have not seen the expected return rate.

They spoke with 24 retail stores. I wonder how the return rate on online orders compares, and how many units are sold online vs. in stores. (Availability is better in stores, but it’s difficult to deduce anything from that.)

Most of the people returning are YouTubers and people who got sick using it after a day or two.

That’s pure speculation. The number of YouTubers is also negligible compared to the reported number of preorders.

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

Do we know what their expected return rate is?

Not by percentage. They just said they expected a surge that hasn’t happened.

 

[Lift Bar]

There are in inordinate amount of posters in these forums who for whatever reason, and I suspect I know why, have been rooting for this device to fail since it was announced.

I'm one of them. My concern isn't about wanting Apple to fail; it's about the negative impact of such technology on real-life interactions. AVP represents a Wall-E future where we're extremely isolated by our devices.

I recognize that Apple has the capability to make this product a success. Trouble is, success here is akin to that of an opium den. I understand that this technological shift might be inevitable, I can't help but feel a sense of loss for the simplicity of experiencing the world directly, without a digital intermediary.

My take is, tech companies must always be Crossing the Chasm, and where there is technological innovation there just needs to be the marketing prowess to sell it to the masses.

Everything about AVP is simply gross, the dad looking at his children’s birthday is astonishingly dystopian. All dressed up and presented as something we should want. Apple is the greatest marketing company in history, I don’t think they’re going to lose.

So yeah, I’m rooting for it to fail, but I’m not delusional enough to think it actually will.

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

They spoke with 24 retail stores. I wonder how the return rate on online orders compares, and how many units are sold online vs. in stores. (Availability is better in stores, but it’s difficult to deduce anything from that.)


That’s pure speculation. The number of YouTubers is also negligible compared to the reported number of preorders.

They say a lot of the online orders, including those for MacBook Pros, tend to be returned to stores.

It may be speculation……..only 24 stores, but if you believe much of what’s posted here, those 24 stores would have seen the surge as EVERYONE IS RETURNING THEM BECAUSE THEY SUCK. Right? No. The way statistics work is take a sample and extrapolate from there. IF there was a huge return surge, they would have seen it.

There are a lot of YouTube wanna be’s too. Not just the ones we may be aware of as they aren’t known well yet. Even still - that is what was posted as a comment by one person working at an Apple Store. Maybe THEY have some of the more well known YouTuber’. Who knows.

 

[AdonisSMU]

There is a lot of people here are just lying and never purchased the product in the first place. This forum has always been a magnet for trolls who didn’t actually buy the product.

 

[turbineseaplane]

How do you know if anyone is telling the truth on any of the polls?

 

[Roller]

To answer the OP's question about the poll results: neither has any meaning in determining the actual return rate. Only Apple knows that.

 

[Niacchus]

I would think its because on MacRumors there are more apple enthusiasts that were more willing to go through effort of pre-ordering and using, knowing in advance they were planning to return before the end of the return window regardless.

The audience of reddit is more broad. Only the top % of apple followers check MacRumors.com and even fewer of us post in the forums.