iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[Tyler O'Bannon]

T’wont fail

 

[ARizz44]

Clearly it is out of the OP’s price range. I’m sure the weight is somehow a problem for them as well.

Edit: posts were merged and I’m no longer referring to the OP.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

apple took the RAM off on on top of the thermal system. Made a flatter, bigger 2d footprint. Brand new , mutiple layer thermal system with better access to the heat source. Probably not going to 'fail'.

titanium is oh so fragile... just build aircraft out of it. Apple brought their somewhat usual over-engineered to the hinge also. (apple backing off of their hyper focus on symmettry helps here. The hindge side is 'beefed up'. ) Some folks will damage it , but folks regularly damage slab phones also.

Apple has 'experimented' with Titanium iPhones before. This isn't their first round.

Have you ever used a folding smartphone before?

 

[JitteryJimmy]

So now that we see the iPhone Duo released… where I have seen something like this before? Hmmmm…

Apple has used the "Duo" brand name before. Namely, the popular Macintosh PowerBook Duo.

 

[dave006]

It's 3k+ if you are actually dead set on getting the 2 TB model.

How many customers need 2 TB on the device?

Dave

 

[deconstruct60]

How much money have they made? Also yes, other brands have been selling them for 8 generations now. The total percentage of the smartphone market globally that foldable smartphones have is 2%.

2% of what. The total celluar phone market is $500-600 Billion. So 2% is about $10B ... boo hoo how could someone make any money with that kind of money. *cough*.
About 1B phone units sold. Again about 20M units. Apple sells about 20-25M Macs. Are Macs a huge fail because unit numbers in the same range?

Is the Duo going to explode Apple's earnings and stock price in the short/intermediate term? No. Is it going to drive average unit price up? Yes. There are not vastly huge untapped parts of the cellphone market left that haven't been untapped.

This year the bottom part of the cellphone market is having problems maining unit numbers. The total number of phones sold is likely going down because more price senstive buyers are being priced out.

The point is to make an additive addtion to iPhone sales unit numbers. Keeping the numbers from going smaller is a 'win' ( if t he device sells enough to pay for itself. Pretty good chance this doesn't have to hit double digit millions to get to breakeven. )

 

[deconstruct60]

Have you ever used a folding smartphone before?

Have you ever taking a class on Thermodynamics or engineer.... because that was the crux of your original assertion. Why are you trying to run away from the topic now?

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Apple has used the "Duo" brand name before. Namely, the popular Macintosh PowerBook Duo.

Yes I used to own one. Shame on MS for stealing that name from Apple. But not shame on Apple for copying a product MS released several years ago.

 

[qwertypop]

This post did not age well lol

 

[surferfb]

With all of these posts like this, nobody explains WHY people want it.

Last time you posted this thread I gave you a use case that I dealt with literally once a month at my previous job, and you told me I was “building a justification around a niche scenario”.

I then gave you a long list of potential use cases that other people might have. But ultimately the “why” boils down to “having a larger screen to do work/be entertained in cases where you are unable or it is annoying to have to bring along a second device.” As I said back in that thread:

There are plenty of road warriors who might decide "this way I don't have to take my laptop out on the tray table just to respond to a few emails" or project managers at a construction site who would rather not lug an iPad with them climbing up ladders but would like a larger screen to look at blueprints on, or any number of other reasons a professional might need more screen space at a time/place they just have their phone. There are also plenty of people who are going to want the biggest screen they can possibly get in the smallest form factor they can possibly get just because, or who like to get "cool" tech from Apple, and are going to be intrigued by new factor, or think having the newest, most expensive iPhone is a status symbol.

To use an analogy I also shared with you last year, my Sony camera takes way better pictures than any iPhone I’ve ever had, but I don’t take it with me everywhere I go because it’s impractical for me to do so. Similarly, there are many times in my career where it would be unpractical or annoying to take a laptop or iPad with me, but having a larger screen to do work on or watch content would be greatly appreciated.

In short “portability.”

 

[gadget123]

This post did not age well lol

4% will buy foldable yes the original post is correct

 

[eclipse01]

This post did not age well lol

better than expected for sure, i'm guessing it will not be a high seller.

 

[Contact_Feanor]

You predicted the AVP would not be a success but that's not a prediction that has yet borne out. For me the Apple Vision Pro is like the first Macintosh: it's revolutionary and amazing (have you tried one?) but costs waaaaaay too much for mainstream appeal and can't yet compete with regular computers (like how the Apple ][ remained their best selling line until almost 1990 I think) on performance or cost. Once the weight and cost come down and the speed increases, I'd take my AVP over my Mac every day; now I mostly use it for media consumption and sometimes as an extended Mac display. But when I use it, it's like the future.

Give the AVP time to mature; it could be a way bigger success than any of us could imagine now. Or it could fail. But I've seen so many people declare victory because the AVP isn't an immediate success or claim "I called it" when it's simply too early to tell.

 

[inventor7777]

I think anyone who is seen carrying this will be instantly branded as "foolish with money." Avoid.

And if a device is in your price range and serves your unique purposes, you can safely ignore any "branding" the crowd gives you. You would think you'd see that, considering your signature.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You predicted the AVP would not be a success but that's not a prediction that has yet borne out. For me the Apple Vision Pro is like the first Macintosh: it's revolutionary and amazing (have you tried one?) but costs waaaaaay too much for mainstream appeal and can't yet compete with regular computers (like how the Apple ][ remained their best selling line until almost 1990 I think) on performance or cost. Once the weight and cost come down and the speed increases, I'd take my AVP over my Mac every day; now I mostly use it for media consumption and sometimes as an extended Mac display. But when I use it, it's like the future.

Give the AVP time to mature; it could be a way bigger success than any of us could imagine now. Or it could fail. But I've seen so many people declare victory because the AVP isn't an immediate success or claim "I called it" when it's simply too early to tell.

Nobody wants to wear ski googles on their face and it's less efficient as some fundamental tasks people need to do on computers.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Last time you posted this thread I gave you a use case that I dealt with literally once a month at my previous job, and you told me I was “building a justification around a niche scenario”.

I then gave you a long list of potential use cases that other people might have. But ultimately the “why” boils down to “having a larger screen to do work/be entertained in cases where you are unable or it is annoying to have to bring along a second device.” As I said back in that thread:



To use an analogy I also shared with you last year, my Sony camera takes way better pictures than any iPhone I’ve ever had, but I don’t take it with me everywhere I go because it’s impractical for me to do so. Similarly, there are many times in my career where it would be unpractical or annoying to take a laptop or iPad with me, but having a larger screen to do work on or watch content would be greatly appreciated.

In short “portability.”

I don't take any of that away from you. I know there are people like you who will buy the Duo and use it and like it.

The question of Why is simple: Why would anyone want to buy and use a compromised device when they can buy and use a dedicated device that doesn't make those compromises?

Why not buy a lawnmower with wings?

Why not buy a convertible laptop?

Why not buy a touch surface laptop that folds with a keyboard that has haptic feedback?

Why not buy and use a portable desktop computer?

Why not buy and use a crescent wrench?

Etc.

The reason dedicated devices/products exist is because they are the best at what they are designed for. When this gets real, and someone is presented with the option of buying a Duo or a non-folding smartphone... then it gets real. It's not just tech talk and fun. How will the Duo be day-to-day putting it in and out of your pocket? Tapping at grocery stores to pay? Grabbing it for a quick read and text message back to someone? Talking on the phone with it up to your ear? Actually using and looking at the internal screen which is deep matte and makes blacks grey and the screen slightly hazy? Etc.

It's worse at being a tablet, and it's worse at being a laptop, and it's worse at being a smartphone. Does it offer value? Yes. Will some people like it and use it in new ways? Yes. But it will be niche is my prediction.

For the record, I like the Duo. Apple has launched what is probably one of the best foldables out there. Will I buy one? No, because it's a gimmick.

 

[Ipadfever]

Opening and closing a phone, close to if not a 100 times a day is too much work 😃

 

[dljeffery]

How many customers need 2 TB on the device?

Dave

Not sure about Apple_Tiger, but I'm pretty sure OP would have absolutely needed 16TB storage on the new iPhone Duo if Apple offered it.

As for me, my 15 Pro Max has 512GB which has served me just fine. Briefly considered getting more storage on it, but I had a 512GB 11 Pro before that and never ran into space issues, so it didn't seem to make sense to pay the extra.

 

[barkomatic]

Credit card companies are going to love this. Consumers who can't pay their bills as it is? They'll learn the hard way.

You remind me of an alcoholic trying to talk himself out of a drink. It's totally fine if this isn't for you but others aren't automatically irresponsible just for purchasing one. People have all kinds of financial situations.

 

[janeauburn]

I think they should raise the price to $20k. Maybe next year.

 

[Contact_Feanor]

Nobody wants to wear ski googles on their face and it's less efficient as some fundamental tasks people need to do on computers.

You think the form factor will always be ski goggles? And you don't think the original Macintosh was less efficient than an apple ][ at *most* fundamental tasks people need to do on computers?

 

[Glacier1]

I'll take the 30/yr. payment plan...

 

[surferfb]

I don't take any of that away from you. I know there are people like you who will buy the Duo and use it and like it.

For the record, I’m undecided on buying it. Probably closer to a yes than I was before the keynote, but definitely not a sure thing.

The question of Why is simple: Why would anyone want to buy and use a compromised device when they can buy and use a dedicated device that doesn't make those compromises?

Because carrying the dedicated device around everywhere can be annoying or impractical. Like my SLR. If I’m going on a vacation to the mountains then yes I’m going to take it. If I’m just running the kid to the playground; almost certainly not (being a dude with a fancy camera at a playground can lead to some weird looks even if you’re clearly with your kid 🤣). In the latter instance, I’d rather have a phone camera, even if it as good as my SLR, because my kid is likely going to want a picture of him doing the monkey bars or whatever.

There are plenty of instances when carrying a tablet or laptop is annoying or impractical, but having a larger screen could be nice. In those instances, a lot of people (not everyone, but I suspect more than you think) will find the idea of a phone that folds into an iPad to be a worthwhile compromise even if it’s technically a “worse tablet” than an iPad mini.

Why not buy a lawnmower with wings?

Why not buy a convertible laptop?

Why not buy a touch surface laptop that folds with a keyboard that has haptic feedback?

Why not buy and use a portable desktop computer?

Why not buy and use a crescent wrench?

Etc.

I personally don’t see a good use case for those things for me. But I suspect there are people who do see use cases for them, and more power to them.

The reason dedicated devices/products exist is because they are the best at what they are designed for. When this gets real, and someone is presented with the option of buying a Duo or a non-folding smartphone... then it gets real. It's not just tech talk and fun. How will the Duo be day-to-day putting it in and out of your pocket? Tapping at grocery stores to pay? Grabbing it for a quick read and text message back to someone? Talking on the phone with it up to your ear? Actually using and looking at the internal screen which is deep matte and makes blacks grey and the screen slightly hazy? Etc.

It's worse at being a tablet, and it's worse at being a laptop, and it's worse at being a smartphone. Does it offer value? Yes. Will some people like it and use it in new ways? Yes. But it will be niche is my prediction.

I don’t agree that it will necessarily be a worse phone then the regular one, in fact several of the photo use cases they showed made me think it’s a better one for some of my use cases. And if it’s a worse tablet, it’ll be with me most of the time whereas my iPad is usually on my desk or by the couch. In those instances, sure I’ll pick up the tablet. But if I don’t have my tablet with me?

That said, I don’t disagree that it will be niche. I think a larger niche than you probably do, but still a niche. I mean, the phone starts at over 50% of the average American’s after-tax take home pay - no one thinks it’s going to be Apple’s best selling phone.

What I disagree with is that the fact that it will likely be niche makes it a failure. Even at 2% of all iPhones sold (which would 5% less than iPhone Air’s estimated 7%) that’s over $10b in revenue - that’s around the revenue of Hilton hotels. And if I’m right that it’s closer to 10% we’re talking more revenue than the Mac or iPad.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You think the form factor will always be ski goggles? And you don't think the original Macintosh was less efficient than an apple ][ at *most* fundamental tasks people need to do on computers?

Same arguments people tried when they flamed me for the prediction I made before the AVP was launched. That's what the product is: ski googles hanging off your face. It's not an alien. It's not a mirage. It's not a car. It's not an ocular implant. It's a VR/AR headset.

Some speculative future state of something that doesn't exist says nothing about what a product is today. Today, the AVR is a failure. Nobody wants to wear ski goggles on their face. Steve Jobs knew this too, which is where, I understand, the Apple Hollodeck came from.

 

[menist]

What I don’t like is they showcase it as a video watching, picture taking, alarm clock device. Where are the productivity examples? Many people who buys this will use it for work, note taking, emails, word processing, desktop mode, etc.

Currently its idea is just a small iPhone that will turn into a big iPhone, that you use to doom scroll and that’s it.