iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]

[xnthvtc]

Because an iPad, even the mini, isn't a real phone

iPads with cellular capabilities ARE essentially giant cell phones. It's just that Apple doesn't allow you to make calls with iPadOS for some reason.

 

[tyranne201]

MacBook Neo is worse in every way and still is a success.

 

[rotvaldi]

MacBook Neo is worse in every way and still is a success.

Money wise still cheap, 2 grands is 2 grands

 

[surferfb]

As I have said, I don’t think foldables will go away, just that they will remain niche.

But you didn’t title your thread “why the iPhone fold will be a niche device” you titled it “why the iPhone fold will fail”.

I absolutely agree it’s a niche device. I also think that niche device will almost certainly earn Apple more revenue in its first year on sale than every Apple Watch sold did in 2025, and will likely earn more revenue than every iPad sold in 2025.

 

[Spike1999]

I think foldables are still cutting edge, give it another 3 years or so.

 

[KauaiBruce]

Yeah I’ll be getting one. Wireless charging was big deal for me. Only thing I’ll miss a bit is the camera zoom. But it’s an easy compromise.

I’m still curious about little things like speakers. I don’t watch apples events anymore. I’m sure the specs will come in detail before next month.

I swore off buying iPads. That definitely won’t be happening with this. But I’ll be glad to have it everywhere with me.

I am not worried at all about speakers since I keep mine off 99% of the time. My watch tells me the phone is ringing and if I do want to listen to content or talk I use the buds.

 

[conmee]

Can’t wait for the Rolling Phone. It will be cool to have a tube in our pockets and then you can unroll it to any size up to an iPad 11” size. A Rolling Phone Mini could he marketed as a tube of lipstick!

I already have an 11” tube in my pocket… uh… it’s white Gorilla caulk… uh… it’s a brand name… jeez… I’m redoing the bathroom, folks. The things some people think of around here. 😉

 

[G5isAlive]

That’s my point. Across many use cases, people do not want a tablet anymore than they want a lawnmower that flies.

well.. you mean, SOME people dont want... because SOME people will want a tablet they can fold. as far a lawnmower that flies, if you mean like a hover bike or something that would be way cool. I think people need to think less about justifying what they want or dont want, and concede we dont all want the something. fortunately.

 

[G5isAlive]

To me it is hubris that people think foldable phones make sense in the same way that it’s hubris thinking lawn mowers with wings make sense.

I dont think hubris means what you think it does... because no one but you seems to be thinking lawn mowers with wings is even worth a real comparison. now me, I stand by my thought that a sit it on lawnmower with hovering capability could be as fun as a telephone box that can teleport.

 

[Mrbiggestman]

One thing about the inner display that is disappointing for me is the fact that that the UDC (under display camera) just sticks out like a sore thumb when in high brightness conditions. I mean even compared to my redmagic 11 pro which also has UDC, it makes me wish that the nanotexture was an optional finish on top instead of a permanent feature (images below). Its just like a one step forward, one step back situation.

Other than that i have little to complain software wise but the hardware is so right hand bias and i can relate to it being more of like what samsung is doing in their S-series lineup; All of their phones are good in the right hand but gets crazy uncomfortable on the left hand. The duo has the same problem as well, Apple had to somewhat prioritise the software experience over the hardware ergonomics in which there is just no middle ground.

 

[Spinarelo]

One thing about the inner display that is disappointing for me is the fact that that the UDC (under display camera) just sticks out like a sore thumb when in high brightness conditions. I mean even compared to my redmagic 11 pro which also has UDC, it makes me wish that the nanotexture was an optional finish on top instead of a permanent feature (images below). Its just like a one step forward, one step back situation.

Other than that i have little to complain software wise but the hardware is so right hand bias and i can relate to it being more of like what samsung is doing in their S-series lineup; All of their phones are good in the right hand but gets crazy uncomfortable on the left hand. The duo has the same problem as well, Apple had to somewhat prioritise the software experience over the hardware ergonomics in which there is just no middle ground.

I’m pretty sure that’s because it’s on camera being recorded. It won’t look that way in person. Many of the folks who played around with it said you can’t see it at all

 

[NeonNights]

No one is talking about how Day 1 app support will be non existent? Developers don’t even have these devices to test their apps on.. And how are apps going to support this? I can think of a ton of scenarios where apps just don’t stretch that way or the other. And what is the incentive for developers to update their apps to support this expensive class of device? Why would they care about 5% of iOS users using the fold?

I think that's why they touted the equal 1.4:1 aspect ratio for both the inner and outer screen. Perhaps Apple is making it easier on developers and the latest iOS updates will handle scaling automatically to support standard apps, with more flexible design options for future app development.

 

[RSmith2023]

Yes, I know people will jump on this and flame me. But this is a prediction and we will see if I am right or wrong over time.

I predicted the AVP would fail because it was obvious: it was worse at many things compared to other device types like smartphones and laptops and desktops. That it didn’t have much of a reason to exist.

Same too for the Fold. It is worse at several things compared to non-folding smartphones, laptops, desktops… and doesn’t have much of a reason to exist.

• Unfolded or folded, the Fold has seams since effectively 2 slabs are sandwiched onto each other and with a hinge. It will always therefore be design compromised compared to a non-folding smartphone.
• Because of the folding capability, and this is a big deal, it has to have a PLASTIC SCREEN. Plastic is noticeably inferior to glass from an optics standpoint, including reflections, and it will have a crease. And over time, we can see that the crease gets more pronounced with other Foldables. So on this, it will have a worse screen than non-folding products like an iPhone or MacBook or iPad.
• Fragility and processing power: it will be more fragile because they have to make each slab as thin as possible and there is a hinge, which is subject to breaking and failure. And the thermals suffer which can compromise performance.
• Very few use cases: the Fold turns into a tablet… but people buy and use non-folding smartphones precisely because of its form-factor: pocketable, one handed use, simple interfaces in software, etc. They aren’t asking for something to turn into a tablet, it doesn’t fit the use cases. And the stats support people not wanting Folds: Foldable smartphones after several years on the market still only have less than 5% of the total smartphone marketshare.

You don’t and won’t see people standing in line at a grocery store with one basket of food in one hand and an unfolded smartphone in the other hand. One handed device use is one of the main use cases of non-folding smartphones.

And for people who also like and want a tablet, it comes down to the problem of the fold being inferior across a set of things to a non-folding iPad.

I don’t see, therefore, how an iPhone Fold can be successful for Apple. Will some people buy it? Yes. How is failure defined? For Apple, it would be not leading in marketshare in the category and not capturing enough customers to make it a viable category to continue developing. Apple needs relatively large markets and scale, and that is not going to happen with the Fold is my prediction.

Go ahead and attack me, and for anyone wanting this device on day 1, that’s great. I don’t think foldables will not exist, but a device that doesn’t have much of a reason to exist is nothing more than a niche market device at best.

I think you are making a very compelling argument for why YOU won’t buy one, but you’re making once critical error in your supposition concerning everyone else: you are comparing it to non-folding phones.

People looking to buy this, and there will be plenty, aren’t looking for non-folding phones. They will buy this BECAUSE it folds.

I myself am not really a huge fan of foldable phones, primarily because of two of the points you made- the crease and the fragility of the hinge. (I have had a test unit of every foldable Samsung has made- every one- and I have used them for a while to test end user functionality and have been relatively unimpressed.

Over the past 2 years Samsung has done a decent job at slimming them down, improving the hinge and reducing the noticeable crease. (The most recent one is the best by far.) But I still didn’t like them because Samsung has those razor sharp edges and corners.

Apple has rounded theirs. They have also dramatically improved the hinge mechanism (from what I was able to tell) so it should hold up a little better.

Before the keynote I was steadfast in my stance that I wouldn’t order it primarily because I didn’t like foldables, based upon my experience with Samsung’s and also that this is 1st gen HW, and that’s a big no-no.

I’m no longer a definite no, but a maybe. Hopefully before they go on order I can get a look at one in a store.

 

[haemolysis]

I think it’s a niche-market product and Apple knows it.

It will capture a lot of that niche! But probably not grow much further.

Would we call that a “fail” still? I wouldn’t.

 

[Mrbiggestman]

I’m pretty sure that’s because it’s on camera being recorded. It won’t look that way in person. Many of the folks who played around with it said you can’t see it at all

nope happens like that in all scenes. the nanotexture doesn't go over the under screen camera you end up having a lot more like this experience here.

 

[Spinarelo]

nope happens like that in all scenes. the nanotexture doesn't go over the under screen camera you end up having a lot more like this experience here.

In all scenes means it’s on camera, it’s the way the camera captures video. I forget the technical term

 

[Pbwallstreet]

But you didn’t title your thread “why the iPhone fold will be a niche device” you titled it “why the iPhone fold will fail”.

I absolutely agree it’s a niche device. I also think that niche device will almost certainly earn Apple more revenue in its first year on sale than every Apple Watch sold did in 2025, and will likely earn more revenue than every iPad sold in 2025.

I defined niche as a failure in my original post.

 

[surferfb]

I defined niche as a failure in my original post.

Is the Mac a failure because it’s niche?

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I think you are making a very compelling argument for why YOU won’t buy one, but you’re making once critical error in your supposition concerning everyone else: you are comparing it to non-folding phones.

People looking to buy this, and there will be plenty, aren’t looking for non-folding phones. They will buy this BECAUSE it folds.

I myself am not really a huge fan of foldable phones, primarily because of two of the points you made- the crease and the fragility of the hinge. (I have had a test unit of every foldable Samsung has made- every one- and I have used them for a while to test end user functionality and have been relatively unimpressed.

Over the past 2 years Samsung has done a decent job at slimming them down, improving the hinge and reducing the noticeable crease. (The most recent one is the best by far.) But I still didn’t like them because Samsung has those razor sharp edges and corners.

Apple has rounded theirs. They have also dramatically improved the hinge mechanism (from what I was able to tell) so it should hold up a little better.

Before the keynote I was steadfast in my stance that I wouldn’t order it primarily because I didn’t like foldables, based upon my experience with Samsung’s and also that this is 1st gen HW, and that’s a big no-no.

I’m no longer a definite no, but a maybe. Hopefully before they go on order I can get a look at one in a store.

Got it. People will buy it because it folds.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Is the Mac a failure because it’s niche?

What’s the Mac’s marketshare? Is it 2%? 4%? 6%?

 

[surferfb]

What’s the Mac’s marketshare? Is it 2%? 4%? 6%?

I believe the last number I saw was 13%. So way, way more niche than Windows.

I’m sure you’ll say 13% means it’s not niche, so another question.

Porsche’s market share of new cars sold is .3%. In its largest market (the US), its market share is .5% of new cars sold. That sounds pretty niche to me.

Maybe you’ll say Porsche’s market isn’t all cars, it’s luxury cars (in which case I’d reply a foldable phone’s market share should be compared to luxury phones, not all phones, but I digress). Porsche represents 3-4% of all luxury cars sold. So, still pretty niche.

Is Porsche a failure? Ferrari has made fewer cars in its entire existence than Porsche made last year. That has to be considered niche! Is Ferrari a failure?

 

[Doug.J]

I believe the last number I saw was 13%. So way, way more niche than Windows.

I’m sure you’ll say 13% means it’s not niche, so another question.

Porsche’s market share of new cars sold is .3%. In its largest market (the US), its market share is .5% of new cars sold. That sounds pretty niche to me.

Maybe you’ll say Porsche’s market isn’t all cars, it’s luxury cars (in which case I’d reply a foldable phone’s market share should be compared to luxury phones, not all phones, but I digress). Porsche represents 3-4% of all luxury cars sold. So, still pretty niche.

Is Porsche a failure? Ferrari has made fewer cars in its entire existence than Porsche made last year. That has to be considered niche! Is Ferrari a failure?

It probably depends on if the OP likes the product or not. If so, it's not a failure. If not, it's a failure. Anything outside their likes must be wrong/fail...

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I believe the last number I saw was 13%. So way, way more niche than Windows.

I’m sure you’ll say 13% means it’s not niche, so another question.

Porsche’s market share of new cars sold is .3%. In its largest market (the US), its market share is .5% of new cars sold. That sounds pretty niche to me.

Maybe you’ll say Porsche’s market isn’t all cars, it’s luxury cars (in which case I’d reply a foldable phone’s market share should be compared to luxury phones, not all phones, but I digress). Porsche represents 3-4% of all luxury cars sold. So, still pretty niche.

Is Porsche a failure? Ferrari has made fewer cars in its entire existence than Porsche made last year. That has to be considered niche! Is Ferrari a failure?

I’m not talking about anyone but Apple. Mac marketshare which I already knew the answer to… that isn’t niche. Folding phones at 2% marketshare is niche. I predict the Duo will hardly dent that.

 

[surferfb]

I’m not talking about anyone but Apple. Mac marketshare which I already knew the answer to… that isn’t niche. Folding phones at 2% marketshare is niche. I predict the Duo will hardly dent that.

iMac represents 1% of global PC shipments. Is the iMac a failure?

 

[estockme]

this phone is gonna fail like a dog