Jumpthesnark
macrumors 68000
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iPhone Duo Why the iPhone Fold will Fail [MERGED] [MEGA THREAD]
- Thread starter Pbwallstreet
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Someone needs to learn the difference between RAM and storage.
conmee
macrumors 65816
1% of global shipments is terrible but also very broad. 78% of global shipments of laptops and desktops were laptops.
Apple has spent its whole existence fighting for Mac marketshare and they have struggled to get more.
Mac marketshare of the PC market is over 10%.
Where Apple makes a lot of its money is in services and iPhone. iPhone and Services generated 76.6% of Apple’s revenue in fiscal 2025. Mac just 8.1%. If Apple was just dealing in Mac, it would still be a good company but nothing even close to what it is today.
We’re talking here specifically about a new category of device. And if the iMac Fold came out I would predict the same fate: it would get just a tiny fraction of not only the overall market, but of regular iMac sales.
Wow, you're really gripping tight onto that 2% stat despite the flawed and conflated representation. The global market includes entry/budget models, mid-range, premium, and ultra-premium segments, of which inherently pricier foldables occupy only the last segment. Grouping foldables amongst all types of smartphones is a gross misrepresentation. But let's ignore the fundamental fallacy for a moment.
Trying to minimize foldable sales by pointing to a 2% global figure is actually impressive. Why? Because it still represents at least 25 million foldable phones annually. Like @surferfb pointed out, I would still love a Porsche in the garage despite its dismal global automobile market share. The Tesla Model Y represents, at most, 1.5% of global vehicle sales yet took the global sales crown in 2023 and 2025 (and was a very close second in 2024 behind the RAV4).
This is all to say you can keep throwing out the 2% stat. There's more to the story behind it and isn't the weakness nor niche you want it to be. With Apple onboard, it's going to be even harder to pigeonhole the category as niche. And the iPhone Duo is certainly not going to fail after that knockout reveal yesterday, despite your thread title prognostication claims.
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$2k seems exorbitant, even for a foldable phone. Also kind of gimmicky to me. For large screen on the go, I'd rather tether my iPad to my iPhone as a hotspot. Or iPad Mini and use VOIP for calling with a data plan.
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When it’s your money. When it’s your company. When you have to make the decison, then it gets real. The 2% stat matters. It demonstrates that after 7 years, foldables are niche.
It is a valid comparison. Not all folding phones are $2000.
Tbh Termu’s interview talking about the Duo low key sold me, that sit down with Joz was the alternate perspective you mentioned, Apple is a status symbol, regardless of the device, a majority will always talk down android users, be green texts, to google pixel users, The Duo will be the ultimate snob fest that we won’t hear the end of it. The Vision Pro “was” niched, but you underestimate the mobility aspect of having the “new” device.
Joz even mentioned it, they take their time perfecting stuff and now everyone will pay attention to foldables.
Jumpthesnark
macrumors 68000
Hard to really say, since I've gone back through this thread and see that you've changed so many posts it's difficult at this point to know what you did say previously. But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and agree.
All you did was describe it in first-person, as if you had seen it and touched the screen, (you call it "sandpaper") which you say is a "deep" and "aggressive" matte. You haven't seen or handled it. You've watched some videos, congratulations.
It is? As compared to what?
You even criticized someone else's opinion because they hadn't seen it in person. Make that make sense:
🤣
I don't feel that I need to explain this, but watching some YouTube videos is not seeing the screen in person.
Please describe how "aggressive" the nano-texture is, from first hand experience. Is it the same as a nano-texture screen iPad? The same as a nano-texture Studio Display? Both? Neither? You can't tell us because you don't know.
Which, again, you haven't seen in person.
So let's just make up what can be seen then!
If you've touched one in person, then you can tell us it feels like sandpaper. Wait, you haven't so you can't.
Oh that's interesting. Those who disagree with you are suffering from hubris. Go on...
Pot, kettle.
^And finally we have what should be the title of this thread. ^
If you don't like the device, or its manufacture, appearance, features, etc, that's great. But please stop trying to talk to us as if you have any first hand knowledge. You don't know what the screen looks or feels like. What you have is opinion. Totally valid, but not backed up with any first-hand observations or data.
And tbh none of that pretend knowledge is needed to support the theme of this thread, which is that you think it will be a "niche" product that "fails." It's an opinion, you don't need to make things up to support your feelings.
Just imagine, a Mac that could fold, almost in the shape of a book. You could then put your folding iMac in a bag, take it where you want, and even use it on the TOP of your LAP.
Nah, it would never take off.
Well, I'm a shareholder and fully behind Apple's leadership and their decision to enter the "2%" market (which we both know is truly at least 10-15%, but that will be our secret).
Correct, not all foldables are $2K. But even a cheaper Flip phone firmly straddles the premium and ultra-premium price categories. Foldables inherently are more expensive than mainstream devices and even flagship slab phones. The fact foldables sell 25 million units a year, with unabated yearly double-to-triple digit growth since inception bodes well for the segment. And now with the Apple effect kicking in, you're going to notice a lot more foldables around soon and that purported "niche" format is all of a sudden going to become very common.
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Luftkopf
macrumors 68000
What's wrong with Apple making niche devices? Half their lineup, if not more, could be considered niche! Personally, I think Apple should make more niche products!
I have a 16 pro 1TB
If I were wanting an 18 pro 1TB at $1799, one might say $200 more for a base Duo, why not
Maybe I opt for iCloud to compensate for the lost memory because the duo can kill 2 birds with one stone (ie maybe I sell my old iPad too)
I don’t need a new phone but if I’ve pondered this “justification” I think others might too
I think china alone will gobble up Duos with US to follow
If I were wanting an 18 pro 1TB at $1799, one might say $200 more for a base Duo, why not
Maybe I opt for iCloud to compensate for the lost memory because the duo can kill 2 birds with one stone (ie maybe I sell my old iPad too)
I don’t need a new phone but if I’ve pondered this “justification” I think others might too
I think china alone will gobble up Duos with US to follow
It's quite comical how you defend the 1% iMac market share as "very broad". By the very same token, the "2% foldable global market share" you like to toss around is also "very broad" and skewed by irrelevant product segments.
iLuddite
macrumors 6502a
So you are going to buy basically an iPhone Duo without the folding screen and an OS you dislike, and claim it’s better and the Duo will fail? I think you just don’t like the price and if the Duo was 1000 you’d snap it up.
I'm not convinced it will fail. Quite the opposite: Apple will sell millions based on the slick animations alone!
But I'm still convinced buyers are getting massively undersold. Apple are coming in on the 8th floor of the foldable market, not the ground. Other companies have made mistakes they can easily iterate on and they have this rich tablet ecosystem they're not even remotely tapping into.
For £2000 I expect it to run iPadOS but show iOS binaries on the front display. This isn't a technical challenge but software flags for universal apps. This would in turn give it the extra utility of a windowed desktop environment on an external display and meet feature parity with rivals.
Instead you're buying an iPhone 17e that becomes a bigger iPhone with an extra camera.
But I'm still convinced buyers are getting massively undersold. Apple are coming in on the 8th floor of the foldable market, not the ground. Other companies have made mistakes they can easily iterate on and they have this rich tablet ecosystem they're not even remotely tapping into.
For £2000 I expect it to run iPadOS but show iOS binaries on the front display. This isn't a technical challenge but software flags for universal apps. This would in turn give it the extra utility of a windowed desktop environment on an external display and meet feature parity with rivals.
Instead you're buying an iPhone 17e that becomes a bigger iPhone with an extra camera.
iLuddite
macrumors 6502a
Luftkopf
macrumors 68000
So when you open the inner screen, the active app has to quit, re-load, and pass its current state to the new instance?
Thats based on current thinking of running a single instance at a time. The Duo has the power of Zeus at its disposal and could easily run them simultaneously.
I think the Duo is clearly significantly better than expected. I don't plan on buying one, but it seems to me they really got it right. The fade-out and fade-in animations when moving the hinge are a really nice touch, turning it upside down to make it a clock, the positioning of speakers, nano-texture, UI changes... it seems they really put in a lot of work to make the experience nice in many details and small but thoughtful changes. The initial reactions from people who are fans of foldables seem to support this.
What I will be most interested in seeing is the software performance - how often will the fade animations stutter or break, how often will apps crash and relaunch when transitioning from the outer to inner screen etc. What they showed is really smooth, elegant and nice, but this heavily depends on that stuff working across the board, not just on a few big apps.
And another thing is going to be heat management and battery life. So this thing when opened is a thinner iPhone Air. It's bigger, but it still has a thin chassis with a titanium frame and silicon more powerful than the iPhone Air. All of that with a bigger screen and it's going to be very interesting to see what that does to battery life and how hot it will get to hold in the hand.
With all of that said, I think it's going to be a hit, will sell a lot of units and the Duo 2 will follow next.
What I will be most interested in seeing is the software performance - how often will the fade animations stutter or break, how often will apps crash and relaunch when transitioning from the outer to inner screen etc. What they showed is really smooth, elegant and nice, but this heavily depends on that stuff working across the board, not just on a few big apps.
And another thing is going to be heat management and battery life. So this thing when opened is a thinner iPhone Air. It's bigger, but it still has a thin chassis with a titanium frame and silicon more powerful than the iPhone Air. All of that with a bigger screen and it's going to be very interesting to see what that does to battery life and how hot it will get to hold in the hand.
With all of that said, I think it's going to be a hit, will sell a lot of units and the Duo 2 will follow next.
Astuces iOS
macrumors 68040
Duo will flop, it’s too expensive and I already carry my iPad mini almost everywhere I go… I do not need it to be foldable to be carried… So I see no point of buying this iPhone duo which is more than 3x more expensive than a mini !